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This paper considers ways in which rulers can respond to, generate, or exploit fear of COVID-19 infection for various ends, and in particular distinguishes between ‘fear-invoking’ and ‘fear-minimising’ strategies. It examines historical precedent for executive overreach in crises and then moves on to look in more detail at some specific areas where fear is being mobilised or generated: in ways that lead to the suspension of civil liberties; that foster discrimination against minorities; and that boost the personality cult of leaders and limit criticism or competition. Finally, in the Appendix, we present empirical work, based on the results of an original survey in Brazil, that provides support for the conjectures in the previous sections. While it is too early to tell what the longer-term outcomes of the changes we note will be, our purpose here is simply to identify some warning signs that threaten the key institutions and values of democracy.
Background: Early-life institutional deprivation produces disinhibited social engagement (DSE). Portrayed as a childhood condition, little is known about the persistence of DSE-type behaviours into, presentation during, and their impact on, functioning in adulthood.
Aims: We examine these issues in the young adult follow-up of the English and Romanian Adoptees study.
Method: A total of 122 of the original 165 Romanian adoptees who had spent up to 43 months as children in Ceauşescu's Romanian orphanages and 42 UK adoptees were assessed for DSE behaviours, neurodevelopmental and mental health problems, and impairment between ages 2 and 25 years.
Results: Young adult DSE behaviour was strongly associated with early childhood deprivation, with a sixfold increase for those who spent more than 6 months in institutions. However, although DSE overlapped with autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms it was not, in itself, related to broader patterns of mental health problems or impairments in daily functioning in young adulthood.
Conclusions: DSE behaviour remained a prominent, but largely clinically benign, young adult feature of some adoptees who experienced early deprivation.
Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.