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Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
(2021)
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a frequent neurodegenerative process in old age. Accumulation and aggregation of the lipid-binding SNARE complex component α-synuclein (SNCA) underlies this vulnerability and defines stages of disease progression. Determinants of SNCA levels and mechanisms of SNCA neurotoxicity have been intensely investigated. In view of the physiological roles of SNCA in blood to modulate vesicle release, we studied blood samples from a new large pedigree with SNCA gene duplication (PARK4 mutation) to identify effects of SNCA gain of function as potential disease biomarkers. Downregulation of complexin 1 (CPLX1) mRNA was correlated with genotype, but the expression of other Parkinson's disease genes was not. In global RNA-seq profiling of blood from presymptomatic PARK4 indviduals, bioinformatics detected significant upregulations for platelet activation, hemostasis, lipoproteins, endocytosis, lysosome, cytokine, Toll-like receptor signaling and extracellular pathways. In PARK4 platelets, stimulus-triggered degranulation was impaired. Strong SPP1, GZMH and PLTP mRNA upregulations were validated in PARK4. When analysing individuals with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder, the most specific known prodromal stage of general PD, only blood CPLX1 levels were altered. Validation experiments confirmed an inverse mutual regulation of SNCA and CPLX1 mRNA levels. In the 3′-UTR of the CPLX1 gene we identified a single nucleotide polymorphism that is significantly associated with PD risk. In summary, our data define CPLX1 as a PD risk factor and provide functional insights into the role and regulation of blood SNCA levels. The new blood biomarkers of PARK4 in this Turkish family might become useful for PD prediction.
Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries. Methods: Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun’s electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries). Results: This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p < 0.01. Conclusion: A large change in solar insolation, both between winter and summer and between the minimum and maximum monthly values, may increase the risk of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder. With frequent circadian rhythm dysfunction and suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder, greater understanding of the optimal roles of daylight and electric lighting in circadian entrainment is needed.