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Institute
WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a tool for modeling global water use and water availability. It participates among other models in the ISIMIP initiative (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). As part of this initiative, the water temperature should be calculated by participating hydrological models because it plays a vital role in many chemical, physical and biological processes. Therefore, the subject of this master thesis is to implement the physically based surface water temperature computation after VAN BEEK ET AL. (2012) and WANDERS ET AL. (2019) into WaterGAP and compare the results to the statistical regression approach by PUNZET ET AL. (2012). The computation is validated with observed water temperature data obtained from the GEMStat water quality database. The results are good for arctic and temperate latitudes. Surface water temperatures for tropical rivers are overestimated, most likely due to the overestimation of precipitation temperatures, incoming radiation and groundwater temperatures. The comparison with the regression model by PUNZET ET AL. (2012) shows matching results. The regression model even matches with WaterGAP results for most of the simulations of the future under climate change conditions, where the regression model should stop working due to changing environmental parameters. Several assumptions had to be made in order to implement the water temperature calculation in Water-GAP. These include, e.g., discharge temperatures for power plant cooling water, precipitation and surface runoff temperatures. For model improvements, perhaps three different values for the different regions of the world should be used to cool down the precipitation and surface runoff. The model could also be improved by refining the ice formation calculation, especially for the conditions when the ice melts, breaks up and is transported downstream. Furthermore, the feedback to the river channel roughness could be implemented if ice has formed. The WaterGAP model upgraded with the water temperature calculation will help the ISIMIP initiative in the future.
Groundwater is the largest source of accessible freshwater with its dynamics having significantly changed due to human withdrawals, and being projected to continue to as a result of climate change. The pumping of groundwater has led to lowered water tables, decreased base flow, and depletion.
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are used to simulate the global freshwater cycle, assessing impacts of changes in climate and human freshwater use. Currently, groundwater is commonly represented by a bucket-like linear storage component in these models. Bucket models, however, cannot provide information on the location of the groundwater table. Due to this limitation, they can only simulate groundwater discharge to surface water bodies but not recharge from surface water to groundwater and calculate no lateral and vertical groundwater flow whatsoever among grid cells. For instance this may lead to an underestimation of groundwater resources in semiarid areas, where groundwater is often replenished by surface water. In order to overcome these limitations it is necessary to replace the linear groundwater model in GHMs with a hydraulic head gradient-based groundwater flow model
This thesis presents the newly developed global groundwater model G3M and its coupling to the GHM WaterGAP spanning over 70,000 lines of newly developed code. Development and validation of the modeling software are discussed along with numerical challenges. Based on the newly developed software, a global natural equilibrium groundwater model is presented showing better agreements with observations than previous models. Groundwater discharge to rivers is found to be the most dominant flow component globally, compared to flows to other surface water bodies and lateral flows. Furthermore, first global maps of the distribution of gaining and losing surface water bodies are displayed.
For the purpose of determining the uncertainty in model outcomes a sensitivity study is conducted with an innovative approach through applying a global sensitivity analysis for a computationally complex model. First global maps of spatially distributed parameter sensitivities are presented. The results at hand indicate that globally simulated hydraulic heads are equally sensitive to hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge and surface water body elevation, even though parameter sensitivities do vary regionally.
A high resolution model of New Zealand is developed to further understand the involved uncertainties connected to the spatial resolution of the global model. This thesis finds that a new understanding is necessary how these models can be evaluated and that a simple increase in spatial resolution is not improving the model performance when compared to observations.
Alongside the assessment of the natural equilibrium, the concept of a fully coupled transient model as integrated storage component replacing the former model in the hydrological model WaterGAP is discussed. First results reveal that the model shows reasonable response to seasonal variability although it contains persistent head trends leading to global overestimates of water table depth due to an incomplete coupling. Nonetheless, WaterGAP-G3M is already able to show plausible long term storage trends for areas that are known to be affected by groundwater depletion. In comparison with two established regional models in the Central Valley the coupled model shows a highly promising simulation of storage declines.