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Institute
- Geowissenschaften (45) (remove)
Aim: Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used.
Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica.
Taxon: Amphibians, birds and mammals.
Methods: We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning.
Results: Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type.
Main conclusions: Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) offers insight into massive short-term carbon cycle perturbations that caused significant warming during a high-pCO2 world, affecting both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. PETM records from the marine-terrestrial interface (e.g. estuarine swamps and mire deposits) are, therefore, of great interest as their present-day counterparts are highly vulnerable to future climate and sea level change. Here, we assess paleoenvironmental changes of mid-latitudinal Late Paleocene-Early Eocene peat mire records along the paleo-North Sea coast. We provide carbon isotope data of bulk organic matter (δ13CTOC), organic carbon content (%TOC), and palynological data from an extensive peat mire deposited at a mid-latitudinal (ca. 41 °N) coastal site (Schöningen, Germany). The δ13CTOC data show a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of −1.7 ‰ coeval with a conspicuous Apectodinium acme, calling for the presence of the PETM in this coastal section. Due to the exceptionally large stratigraphic thickness of the PETM at Schöningen (10 m of section) we established a detailed palynological record that indicates only minor changes in paleovegetation leading to and during the PETM. Instead, paleovegetation changes mostly follow natural successions in response to changes along the marine-terrestrial interface. Compared to other available peat mire records (Cobham, UK; Vasterival, France) it appears that wetland deposits around the Paleogene North Sea have a typical CIE magnitude of ca. −1.3 ‰ in δ13CTOC. Moreover, the Schöningen record shares major characteristics with the Cobham Lignite, including evidence for increased fire activity prior to the PETM, minor PETM-related plant species changes, a reduced CIE in δ13CTOC, and drowning of the mire (marine ingressions) during much of the PETM. This suggests that paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene, including the PETM, consistently affected major segments of the paleo-North Sea coast.
Micromorphology is a suitable method to study the contents and stratigraphic relationships of pit fills. Within the ramparts of Corneşti-Iarcuri, fill layers of a pit were sampled. Th e pit fill was macroscopically divided into primary and secondary fill due to striking differences. These differences could be verified and concretized micromorphologically.
Invasive plant species are increasingly altering species composition and the functioning of ecosystems from a local to a global scale. The grass species Pennisetum setaceum has recently raised concerns as an invader on different archipelagos worldwide. Among these affected archipelagos are the Canary Islands, which are a hotspot of endemism. Consequently, conservation managers and stakeholders are interested in the potential spreading of this species in the archipelago. We identify the current extent of the suitable habitat for P. setaceum on the island of La Palma to assess how it affects island ecosystems, protected areas (PAs), and endemic plant species richness. We recorded in situ occurrences of P. setaceum from 2010 to 2018 and compiled additional ones from databases at a 500 m × 500 m resolution. To assess the current suitable habitat and possible distribution patterns of P. setaceum on the island, we built an ensemble model. We projected habitat suitability for island ecosystems and PAs and identified risks for total as well as endemic plant species richness. The suitable habitat for P. setaceum is calculated to cover 34.7% of the surface of La Palma. In open ecosystems at low to mid elevations, where native ecosystems are already under pressure by land use and human activities, the spread of the invader will likely lead to additional threats to endemic plant species. Forest ecosystems (e.g., broadleaved evergreen and coniferous forests) are not likely to be affected by the spread of P. setaceum because of its heliophilous nature. Our projection of suitable habitat of P. setaceum within ecosystems and PAs on La Palma supports conservationists and policymakers in prioritizing management and control measures and acts as an example for the potential threat of this graminoid invader on other islands.
Accretion rates of Holocene tropical coral reefs in three areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans have been quantified in 79 dated core sections in 34 reef cores from Belize, the Maldives and French Polynesia. Holocene vertical reef accretion rate averages 5.05 m/kyr and has decreased during the past 10 kyr. Accretion rates in branched and massive coral facies are statistically similar. Reef accretion rate is positively correlated with the rate of sea‐level rise, that is the degree of creation of accommodation space, and with climate as expressed in a Holocene sea surface temperature anomaly. Accommodation space is also created by subsidence, but at a rate one to two orders of magnitude lower than that created by glacio‐eustasy (0.04 to 0.16 m/kyr). Lagoonal background sedimentation in adjacent reef lagoons averages 0.89 m/kyr as measured in 72 dated core sections in 28 cores. Lagoonal carbonate sedimentation on top of underlying mangrove peat usually starts after a considerable hiatus of ca 3 kyr on average. The lagoonal background sedimentation rate increased during the Holocene, probably due to deepening. The differences between vertical reef accretion and lagoonal background sedimentation rates are a major factor in the production of the widely known saucer shapes typical of tropical reefs and carbonate platforms, that is the creation of unfilled accommodation space. Reef core recovery, used as a proxy for reef consolidation, and core depth exhibit a statistically negative correlation based on data from 326 core barrels. Recovery and marine cement abundance (average volume 8.6%) also decrease from windward to leeward core positions. These observations are presumably a result of both a decrease in the rate of sea‐level rise that is the increase in time available for submarine cementation during the Holocene and the amount of flushing of reef interstices by marine waters.
The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes.
The sources and critical enrichment processes for granite related tin ores are still not well understood. The Erzgebirge represents one of the classical regions for tin mineralization. We investigated the four largest plutons from the Western Erzgebirge (Germany) for the geochemistry of bulk rocks and autocrystic zircons and relate this information to their intrusion ages. The source rocks of the Variscan granites were identified as high-grade metamorphic rocks based on the comparison of Hf-O isotope data on zircons, the abundance of xenocrystic zircon ages as well as Nd and Hf model ages. Among these rocks, restite is the most likely candidate for later Variscan melts. Based on the evolution with time, we could reconstruct enrichment factors for tin and tungsten starting from the protoliths (575 Ma) that were later converted to high-grade metamorphic rocks (340 Ma) and served as sources for the older biotite granites (323–318 Ma) and the tin granites (315–314 Ma). This evolution involved a continuous enrichment of both tin and tungsten with an enrichment factor of ~15 for tin and ~7 for tungsten compared to the upper continental crust (UCC). Ore level concentrations (>10–100 times enrichment) were achieved only in the greisen bodies and dykes by subsequent hydrothermal processes.
Parabens and sorbic acid are commonly used as food preservatives due to their antimicrobial effect. However, their use in foods for infants and young children is not permitted in the European Union. Previous studies found these compounds in some gel-filled baby teethers, whereby parabens, which are well-known as endocrine disruptors, were identified in the polymer-based chewing surface consisting of ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA). To assess the exposure of infants and young children to these products, the application of parabens in teethers should be thoroughly investigated. Therefore, the present study aimed to apply a representative migration test procedure combined with an accurate analytical method to examine gel-filled baby teethers without elaborate sample preparation, high costs, and long processing times. Accordingly, solid-phase extraction (SPE), in combination with a stable isotope dilution assay (SIDA) and subsequent gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for analysis of methyl-, ethyl-, and n-propylparaben (MeP, EtP, and n-PrP), was found to be well-suited, with recoveries ranging from 93 to 99%. The study compared the release of these parabens from intact teether surfaces into water and saliva simulant under real-life conditions, with total amounts of detected parabens found to be in the range of 101–162 µg 100 mL−1 and 57–148 µg 100 mL−1, respectively. Furthermore, as a worst-case scenario, the release into water was examined using a long-term migration study.
A twentieth century-long coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling, Climate Limited-area Model) and NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) is studied here to evaluate the added value of coupled marginal seas over continental regions. The interactive coupling of the marginal seas, namely the Mediterranean, the North and the Baltic Seas, to the atmosphere in the European region gives a comprehensive modelling system. It is expected to be able to describe the climatological features of this geographically complex area even more precisely than an atmosphere-only climate model. The investigated variables are precipitation and 2 m temperature. Sensitivity studies are used to assess the impact of SST (sea surface temperature) changes over land areas. The different SST values affect the continental precipitation more than the 2 m temperature. The simulated variables are compared to the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) observational data, and also to the HOAPS/GPCC (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) data. In the coupled simulation, added skill is found primarily during winter over the eastern part of Europe. Our analysis shows that, over this region, the coupled system is dryer than the uncoupled system, both in terms of precipitation and soil moisture, which means a decrease in the bias of the system. Thus, the coupling improves the simulation of precipitation over the eastern part of Europe, due to cooler SST values and in consequence, drier soil.
Often in climate system studies, linear and symmetric statistical measures are applied to quantify interactions among subsystems or variables. However, they do not allow identification of the driving and responding subsystems. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to apply asymmetric measures from information theory: the axiomatically proposed transfer entropy and the first principle-based information flow to detect and quantify climate interactions. As their estimations are challenging, we initially tested nonparametric estimators like transfer entropy (TE)-binning, TE-kernel, and TE k-nearest neighbor and parametric estimators like TE-linear and information flow (IF)-linear with idealized two-dimensional test cases along with their sensitivity on sample size. Thereafter, we experimentally applied these methods to the Lorenz-96 model and to two real climate phenomena, i.e., (1) the Indo-Pacific Ocean coupling and (2) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–European air temperature coupling. As expected, the linear estimators work for linear systems but fail for strongly nonlinear systems. The TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators are reliable for linear and nonlinear systems. Nevertheless, the nonparametric methods are sensitive to parameter selection and sample size. Thus, this work proposes a composite use of the TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators along with parameter testing for consistent results. The revealed information exchange in Lorenz-96 is dominated by the slow subsystem component. For real climate phenomena, expected bidirectional information exchange between the Indian and Pacific SSTs was detected. Furthermore, expected information exchange from NAO to European air temperature was detected, but also unexpected reversal information exchange. The latter might hint to a hidden process driving both the NAO and European temperatures. Hence, the limitations, availability of time series length and the system at hand must be taken into account before drawing any conclusions from TE and IF-linear estimations.
Diverse epidermal appendages including grouped filaments closely resembling primitive feathers in non-avian theropods, are associated with skeletal elements in the primitive ornithischian dinosaur Kulindadromeus zabaikalicus from the Kulinda locality in south-eastern Siberia. This discovery suggests that “feather-like” structures did not evolve exclusively in theropod dinosaurs, but were instead potentially widespread in the whole dinosaur clade. The dating of the Kulinda locality is therefore particularly important for reconstructing the evolution of “feather-like” structures in dinosaurs within a chronostratigraphic framework. Here we present the first dating of the Kulinda locality, combining U-Pb analyses (LA-ICP-MS) on detrital zircons and monazites from sedimentary rocks of volcaniclastic origin and palynological observations. Concordia ages constrain the maximum age of the volcaniclastic deposits at 172.8 ± 1.6 Ma, corresponding to the Aalenian (Middle Jurassic). The palynological assemblage includes taxa that are correlated to Bathonian palynozones from western Siberia, and therefore constrains the minimum age of the deposits. The new U-Pb ages, together with the palynological data, provide evidence of a Bathonian age—between 168.3 ± 1.3 Ma and 166.1 ± 1.2 Ma—for Kulindadromeus. This is older than the previous Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous ages tentatively based on local stratigraphic correlations. A Bathonian age is highly consistent with the phylogenetic position of Kulindadromeus at the base of the neornithischian clade and suggests that cerapodan dinosaurs originated in Asia during the Middle Jurassic, from a common ancestor that closely looked like Kulindadromeus. Our results consequently show that Kulindadromeus is the oldest known dinosaur with “feather-like” structures discovered so far.
The synthesis of polynitrogen compounds is of fundamental importance due to their potential as environmentally-friendly high energy density materials. Attesting to the intrinsic difficulties related to their formation, only three polynitrogen ions, bulk stabilized as salts, are known. Here, magnesium and molecular nitrogen are compressed to about 50 GPa and laser-heated, producing two chemically simple salts of polynitrogen anions, MgN4 and Mg2N4. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction reveals infinite anionic polythiazyl-like 1D N-N chains in the crystal structure of MgN4 and cis-tetranitrogen N44− units in the two isosymmetric polymorphs of Mg2N4. The cis-tetranitrogen units are found to be recoverable at atmospheric pressure. Our results respond to the quest for polynitrogen entities stable at ambient conditions, reveal the potential of employing high pressures in their synthesis and enrich the nitrogen chemistry through the discovery of other nitrogen species, which provides further possibilities to design improved polynitrogen arrangements.
Coccolith mass is an important parameter for estimating coccolithophore contribution to carbonate sedimentation, organic carbon ballasting and coccolithophore calcification. Single coccolith mass is often estimated based on the ks model, which assumes that length and thickness increase proportionally. To evaluate this assumption, this study compared coccolith length, thickness, and mass of seven Emiliania huxleyi strains and one Gephyrocapsa oceanica strain grown in 25, 34, and 44 salinity artificial seawater. While coccolith length increased with salinity in four E. huxleyi strains, thickness did not increase significantly with salinity in three of these strains. Only G. oceanica showed a consistent increase in length with salinity that was accompanied by an increase in thickness. Coccolith length and thickness was also not correlated in 14 of 24 individual experiments, and in the experiments in which there was a positive relationship r2 was low (<0.4). Because thickness did not increase with length in E. huxleyi, the increase in mass was less than expected from the ks model, and thus, mass can not be accurately estimated from coccolith length alone.
Prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing. Resulting fibrosis and portal hypertension, as a possible secondary event, may necessitate treatment. Overexpression of mouse renin in the transgenic rat model, TGR(mREN2)27, leads to spontaneous development of NAFLD. Therefore, we used TGR(mREN2)27 rats as a model of NAFLD where we hypothesized increased susceptibility and investigated fibrosis and portal hypertension and associated pathways. 12-week old TGR(mREN2)27 rats received either cholestatic (BDL) or toxic injury (CCl4 inhalation). Portal and systemic hemodynamic assessments were performed using microsphere technique with and without injection of the Janus-Kinase 2 (JAK2) inhibitor AG490 or the non-peptidic Ang(1-7) agonist, AVE0991. The extent of liver fibrosis was assessed in TGR(mREN2)27 and wild-type rats using standard techniques. Protein and mRNA levels of profibrotic, renin-angiotensin system components were assessed in liver and primary hepatic stellate cells (HSC) and hepatocytes. TGR(mREN2)27 rats developed spontaneous, but mild fibrosis and portal hypertension due to the activation of the JAK2/Arhgef1/ROCK pathway. AG490 decreased migration of HSC and portal pressure in isolated liver perfusions and in vivo. Fibrosis or portal hypertension after cholestatic (BDL) or toxic injury (CCl4) was not aggravated in TGR(mREN2)27 rats, probably due to decreased mouse renin expression in hepatocytes. Interestingly, portal hypertension was even blunted in TGR(mREN2)27 rats (with or without additional injury) by AVE0991. TGR(mREN2)27 rats are a suitable model of spontaneous liver fibrosis and portal hypertension but not with increased susceptibility to liver damage. After additional injury, the animals can be used to evaluate novel therapeutic strategies targeting Mas.
Convective shower characteristics simulated with the convection-permitting climate model COSMO-CLM
(2019)
This paper evaluates convective precipitation as simulated by the convection-permitting climate model (CPM) Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) (with 2.8 km grid-spacing) over Germany in the period 2001–2015. Characteristics of simulated convective precipitation objects like lifetime, area, mean intensity, and total precipitation are compared to characteristics observed by weather radar. For this purpose, a tracking algorithm was applied to simulated and observed precipitation with 5-min temporal resolution. The total amount of convective precipitation is well simulated, with a small overestimation of 2%. However, the simulation underestimates convective activity, represented by the number of convective objects, by 33%. This underestimation is especially pronounced in the lowlands of Northern Germany, whereas the simulation matches observations well in the mountainous areas of Southern Germany. The underestimation of activity is compensated by an overestimation of the simulated lifetime of convective objects. The observed mean intensity, maximum intensity, and area of precipitation objects increase with their lifetime showing the spectrum of convective storms ranging from short-living single-cell storms to long-living organized convection like supercells or squall lines. The CPM is capable of reproducing the lifetime dependence of these characteristics but shows a weaker increase in mean intensity with lifetime resulting in an especially pronounced underestimation (up to 25%) of mean precipitation intensity of long-living, extreme events. This limitation of the CPM is not identifiable by classical evaluation techniques using rain gauges. The simulation can reproduce the general increase of the highest percentiles of cell area, total precipitation, and mean intensity with temperature but fails to reproduce the increase of lifetime. The scaling rates of mean intensity and total precipitation resemble observed rates only in parts of the temperature range. The results suggest that the evaluation of coarse-grained (e.g., hourly) precipitation fields is insufficient for revealing challenges in convection-permitting simulations.
In November 2016, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected at the Ceboruco Volcano in cooperation with the Centro de Sismología y Volcanología de Occidente (SisVoc, Universidad de Guadalajara, Mexico). The Ceboruco is a 2280 m high stratovolcano, located in Nayarit State, Mexico. It is placed in the central part of the Tepic-Zacoalco Rift (TZR), which constitutes the north-western end of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Together with Chapala and Colima (in the Jalisco Block), they form the triple rift system developed as a consequence of the ongoing subduction of the Rivera and Cocos oceanic plates beneath the North American continental crust. Although its last eruption occurred in 1870, it is the most active volcano in the area, showing volcanic-earthquake activity together with ongoing vapor emissions. The survey was part of a geothermal project (CeMIEGeo-P24) and focused on the determination of electrical conductivity properties to characterize the deep structure and the geothermal potential of the Volcano. Frequency dependent magnetotelluric response functions were calculated from 25 broadband MT stations, which covered an area of 10 x 10 km2 including its crater, calderas and foreland. The results were interpreted using anisotropic 3-D forward modelling and isotropic 3-D inversion approaches, considering strong topographical effects. The final resistivity model implies a highly conductive layer, reaching from near-surface to approximately 2 km depth, which might be related to a hydrothermal system. Here, mineralized fluids and clay minerals can cause high conductivities around 1 S/m. For longer periods, the principal axes of the MT response tensors (phase tensor, apparent resistivity tensor) are in good agreement with the strike direction of the underlying rift system. However, they are not rendered by the isotropic inversion. Thus the data suggest an anisotropic electrical conductivity at greater depth with its principal axis determined by the response tensors.
Deriving stratospheric age of air spectra using an idealized set of chemically active trace gases
(2019)
Analysis of stratospheric transport from an observational point of view is frequently realized by evaluation of the mean age of air values from long-lived trace gases. However, this provides more insight into general transport strength and less into its mechanism. Deriving complete transit time distributions (age spectra) is desirable, but their deduction from direct measurements is difficult. It is so far primarily based on model work. This paper introduces a modified version of an inverse method to infer age spectra from mixing ratios of short-lived trace gases and investigates its basic principle in an idealized model simulation. For a full description of transport seasonality the method includes an imposed seasonal cycle to gain multimodal spectra. An ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model simulation is utilized for a general proof of concept of the method and features an idealized dataset of 40 radioactive trace gases with different chemical lifetimes as well as 40 chemically inert pulsed trace gases to calculate pulse age spectra. It is assessed whether the modified inverse method in combination with the seasonal cycle can provide matching age spectra when chemistry is well-known. Annual and seasonal mean inverse spectra are compared to pulse spectra including first and second moments as well as the ratio between them to assess the performance on these timescales. Results indicate that the modified inverse age spectra match the annual and seasonal pulse age spectra well on global scale beyond 1.5 years of mean age of air. The imposed seasonal cycle emerges as a reliable tool to include transport seasonality in the age spectra. Below 1.5 years of mean age of air, tropospheric influence intensifies and breaks the assumption of single entry through the tropical tropopause, leading to inaccurate spectra, in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. The imposed seasonal cycle wrongly prescribes seasonal entry in this lower region and does not lead to a better agreement between inverse and pulse age spectra without further improvement. Tests with a focus on future application to observational data imply that subsets of trace gases with 5 to 10 species are sufficient for deriving well-matching age spectra. These subsets can also compensate for an average uncertainty of up to ±20 % in the knowledge of chemical lifetime if a deviation of circa ±10 % in modal age and amplitude of the resulting spectra is tolerated.