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Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing wages. This decreases welfare for middle aged asset rich households. This paper takes the perspective of the three demographically oldest European nations — France, Germany and Italy — to address three important adjustment channels to dampen these detrimental effects of aging in these countries: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation and increasing the retirement age. Our quantitative finding is that endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong implications for economic aggregates and welfare, in particular in the open economy. These adjustments reduce the maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 by about 2.2 percentage points in terms of a consumption equivalent variation.
Mit dem machtpolitischen Aufstieg Chinas treten Weltregionen in den Fokus, die in unseren Breitengraden vormals eher am Rande wahrgenommen wurden – insbesondere Asien. Neben der gestiegenen weltpolitischen Bedeutung eröffnen sich auch akademisch spannende Perspektiven, wie unlängst die zweite Global South Caucus Konferenz der ISA in Singapur zeigte.
Diese Woche wieder ein Kessel Buntes aus der Welt der Blogs und Magazine. Die Themen diese Woche sind islamistische Rekrutierungsstrategien, Menschenrechtsregime, Kindersoldaten und Boko Haram. Dazu gibt es ein Interview mit Noam Chomsky und ein interessantes Blogforum zu Völkerrechtsgeschichten. Viel Spaß!
Das Ziel des heute startenden Blogforums ist es in den nächsten Wochen in gut verdaubaren Beiträgen blinde Flecken zu beleuchten, bereits bekannte Aspekte zu vertiefen, vermeintliche Gewissheiten aufzubrechen und so den Diskurs über „IS“ konstruktiv zu prägen. Dieser Aufgabe haben sich mehr als zwei Dutzend Expertinnen und Experten aus Wissenschaft, öffentlichen und privaten Sicherheitsinstitutionen, Journalismus, Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und De-Radikalisierungspraxis verschrieben...
In der diesjährigen Rede zur Lage der Nation hat Präsident Obama erneut einen relativ hohen Anteil seiner begrenzten Redezeit auf Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik verwendet – und damit den sich über seine zwei Amtszeiten abzeichnenden Trend bekräftigt. Exakt ein Viertel seiner knapp 6.500 Worte (für die er dieses Jahr 59 Minuten und 56 Sekunden benötigte) füllten Themen wie IS und Syrien/Irak, der Abzug aus Afghanistan, die Ukraine-Krise und russische Aggression, das Tauwetter in der Karibik, die Verhandlungen rund um das iranische Atomprogramm, Cybersicherheit, Ebola, Guantanamo und die „größte Gefahr für zukünftige Generationen“: Klimawandel....
Part V of our series on cyberpeace "Cyberpeace: Dimensionen eines Gegenentwurfs".
With everybody focusing on cyberwar, our blog has decided to discuss cyberpeace instead. So far we have seen musings on war and peace, the meaning of the term “cyberpeace” itself and how we construct it discursively and calls to end cyberwar by focusing on the technical aspects again. All of these points are valid. But I feel that they are limited in their scope, because they focus too much on the adversarial: The hacks, the malware, the evil hackers from North Korea. But peace is more than the absence of war – and, in our case, more than the absence of hacks. If we want to be serious about cyberpeace as a societal goal, we have to pay more attention to how we handle our data because this data has a huge impact on the peace within our society....
The treatise "Contra malos divites et usurarios" (Cracovie, 1512) was the first of the renowned Polish anti-usurious texts which was not written by a university professor but by an official of the royal administration. Stanisław Zaborowski focuses, especially, on the problem of land of the royal domain given by kings to great landlords as a pledge, with harm to res publica. He applies the late medieval conciliarist notions to the issue of royal power. Nevertheless, the text diverges from the medieval thought. Zaborowski’ discourse does not focus on demonstrating the rightness of the anti-usurious principles but rather on convincing the readers to follow them in life. The argumentation is ‘addressed’ more to the will than to the reason; it focuses on the vice of avarice, more than on the Seventh Commandment; the author emphasizes the virtue of charity, more than on the virtue of justice. Anti-usurious Zaborowski’s thought made a part of his political vision. His discussed treatise is closely related with his more renowned Tractatus de natura iurium et bonorum regis. In Contra malos divites et usurarios, the problems of public debt and forced loan are of crucial importance. At present Marcin Bukała is preparing the critical edition of the treatise.
Die Dissertation untersucht die posthumen skulpturalen Bildwerke Ludwigs IX. des Heiligen (1226-1270). Seine konkrete Gestaltungsweise wird vor der Folie des französischen Königsbildes im Allgemeinen entwickelt. Vor allem die Zeit von 1270 bis in die 1340er Jahre steht im Fokus der Betrachtung. Diese Zeiteinteilung beruht auf der zentralen Frage, ab wann das Königsbild beginnt lesbar zu werden. Die methodische Voraussetzung dazu ist die bis jetzt noch nicht durchgeführte strikte Distinktion sowohl von Typus und Stil als auch von Typus und Gattung. Hier kristallisiert sich heraus, dass die Bildwerke Ludwigs IX., die nach seiner Kanonisation von 1297 datieren, eine Zäsur darstellen. An ihnen lässt sich erstmals die Präzisierung eines bestimmten Königs in der Gestaltungsweise festhalten. Seine Spezifika werden erarbeitet. Die besondere, zunächst auf Ludwig IX. beschränkte Darstellungsform geht in der unmittelbaren Auseinandersetzung mit den Leiden der Heiligen hervor - wie bei ihnen wird sein Antlitz mimisch belebt, um sein Leiden darzustellen. Ein neuer Königstypus entsteht. Damit sind Bildwerke von Ludwig IX. lesbar – ein Novum innerhalb des französischen Königsbildes.
Diese Entwicklung vollzieht sich vor allem in der Zeit Philipps IV. Zahlreiche Neuerungen sowohl im Herrscherbild als auch in den Bildprogrammen geschehen in seiner Regentschaft. Vor allem die Kanonisation Ludwigs IX. gibt dem Souverän neue Möglichkeiten an die Hand, die besondere Sakralität des französischen Königtums weiter auszubauen. Mit der Darstellung des Heiligen verband sich eine Kultfunktion, die sich in der Gestaltung widerspiegelt und die dem französischen Herrscherbild neue Impulse vermittelt hat. Darüber hinaus erschöpfen sich die Bildstrategin Philipps IV. aber nicht allein in der Indienstnahme des neuen Dynastieheiligen, sondern sie erweitern zudem die politische Ikonografie.
Wie sich das französische Herrscherbild unter welchen formalen sowie historischen Kriterien warum wandelt, ist Untersuchungsgegenstand der Dissertation.
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of gasoline price forecasts are feasible in real time at horizons up to two years, as are substantial increases in directional accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the EIA gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable.
Im Jahr 2014 beschäftigten sich sowohl der Deutsche Juristentag als auch die Vereinigung der Deutschen Staatsrechtslehrer mit dem Reformbedarf im Gerichtsverfassungs- bzw. (Zivil-)Prozessrecht sowie mit dem Wandel der Justiz. Das Arbeitspapier ist der methodischen Frage gewidmet, welcher Innovationen die Prozessrechtswissenschaft bedarf, um sowohl Vollzugsdefizite als auch Reformentwicklungen im Recht der Dritten Gewalt sachgerecht untersuchen zu können. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Übertragung der im Verwaltungsrecht inzwischen etablierten Perspektive der Rechtswissenschaft als Steuerungswissenschaft auf das Prozessrecht. Es wird u.a. gezeigt, dass dieser Ansatz wissenschaftsgeschichtlich anschlussfähig ist und – als Referenzbeispiel – für das Verständnis des richterlichen Verfahrensermessens ertragreich sein kann.
Novel therapies for lung cancer are being explored nowadays with local therapies being the tip of the arrow. Intratumoral chemotherapy administration and local microwave ablation have been investigated in several studies. It has been previously proposed that lipiodol has the ability to modify the microenvironment matrix. In our current study we investigated this theory in BALBC mice. In total 160 BALBC mice were divided in eight groups: a) control, b) cisplatin, c) microwave, d) microwave and lipiodol, e) cisplatin and lipiodol, f) microwave and cisplatin, g) lipiodol and h) lipiodol, cisplatin and microwave. Lewis lung carcinoma cell lines (106) were injected into the right back leg of each mouse. After the 8th day, when the tumor volume was about 100mm3 the therapy application was initiated, once per week for four weeks. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed for each tumor when a mouse died or when sacrificed if they were still alive by the end of the experiment (8-Canal multifunctional spool; NORAS MRI products, Gmbh, Germany). Imaging and survival revealed efficient tumor apoptosis for the groups b,c,d,e and f. However; severe toxicity was observed in group h and no follow up was available for this group after the second week of therapy administration. Lipiodol in its current form does assist in a more efficient way the distribution of cisplatin, as the microwave apoptotic effect. Future modification of lipiodol might provide a more efficient method of therapy enhancement. Combination of drug and microwave ablation is possible and has an efficient apoptotic effect.
Songs in passerine birds are important for territory defense and mating. Speciation rates in oscine passerines are so high, due to cultural evolution, that this bird lineage makes up half of the extant bird species. Leaf warblers are a speciose Old-World passerine family of limited morphological differentiation, so that songs are even more important for species delimitation. We took 16 sonographic traits from song recordings of 80 leaf warbler taxa and correlated them with 15 potentially explanatory variables, pairwise, and in linear models. Based on a well-resolved molecular phylogeny of the same taxa, all pairwise correlations were corrected for relatedness with phylogenetically independent contrasts and phylogenetic generalized linear models were used. We found a phylogenetic signal for most song traits, but a strong one only for the duration of the longest and of the shortest element, which are presumably inherited instead of learned. Body size of a leaf warbler species is a constraint on song frequencies independent of phylogeny. At least in this study, habitat density had only marginal impact on song features, which even disappeared through phylogenetic correction. Maybe most leaf warblers avoid the deterioration through sound propagation in dense vegetation by singing from exposed perches. Latitudinal (and longitudinal) extension of the breeding ranges was correlated with most song features, especially verse duration (longer polewards and westwards) and complexity (lower polewards). Climate niche or expansion history might explain these correlations. The number of different element types per verse decreases with elevation, possibly due to fewer resources and congeneric species at higher elevations.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, both resolution planning, i.e. contingency planning by both regulated institutions and public authorities in order to prepare their actions in financial crisis, and concepts for structural bank reform have been identified as possible solutions to ending “Too Big To Fail” and foster market discipline among bank owners, bank managers and investors in bank debt. Both concepts thus complement the global quest for reliable procedures and tools for bank resolution that would minimise systemic implications once large and complex financial institutions have reached the stage of insolvency. Given the complex task of orchestrating swift and effective resolution actions, especially with regard to cross-border banking groups and financial conglomerates, planning ahead in good times has since been widely recognised as crucial for enhancing resolvability. At least part of the impediments to resolution will be found in organisational, financial and legal complexity that has evolved in banks and groups over time. To remove these impediments, interference with existing corporate and group structures is all but inevitable. However, in both international standard setting and at the European Union level, issues related to resolution planning (within the context of bank resolution reform) and structural banking reforms to date have been discussed rather separately. This lack of consistency is questionable, given the obvious need to reconcile both approaches in order to facilitate effective implementation and enforcement especially with regard to large, complex banking groups. Based on an analysis both of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive and the SRM Regulation, this paper explores how these problems could be dealt with within the context of the European Banking Union.
In der ersten Netzschau im Neuen Jahr geht es um das (vermeintliche) Aussterben des Folterverbots in den USA, Drohnen in Europa, Demokratisierungstrends in den kommenden zehn Jahren, die Finanzierung des UN-Menschenrechtspfeilers und die Konkurrenz zwischen al Qaida und dem Islamischen Staat – auch im Lichte der Anschläge von Paris.
Second mitochondria-derived activator of caspase (Smac) mimetics are considered as promising anticancer therapeutics that are currently under investigation in early clinical trials. They induce apoptosis by antagonizing inhibitor of apoptosis proteins, which are frequently overexpressed in cancer. We previously reported that Smac mimetics, such as BV6, additionally exert non-apoptotic functions in glioblastoma (GBM) cells by stimulating migration and invasion in a nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB)-dependent manner. Because NF-κB target genes mediating these effects are largely unknown, we performed whole-genome expression analyses. Here, we identify chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2 (CCL2) as the top-listed NF-κB-regulated gene being upregulated upon BV6 treatment in GBM cells. BV6-induced upregulation and secretion of CCL2 are required for migration and invasion of GBM cells because knockdown of CCL2 in GBM cells abolishes these effects. Co-culture experiments of GBM cells with non-malignant astroglial cells reveal that BV6-stimulated secretion of CCL2 by GBM cells into the supernatant triggers migration of astroglial cells toward GBM cells because CCL2 knockdown in BV6-treated GBM cells impedes BV6-stimulated migration of astroglial cells. In conclusion, we identify CCL2 as a BV6-induced NF-κB target gene that triggers migration and invasion of GBM cells and exerts paracrine effects on the GBM's microenvironment by stimulating migration of astroglial cells. These findings provide novel insights into the biological functions of Smac mimetics with important implications for the development of Smac mimetics as cancer therapeutics.
Die Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main verpflichtet sich der Familienfreundlichkeit als eines der zentralen Querschnittsthemen der Universität. Ziel ist es, in Studium, Forschung, Lehre und Verwaltung nachhaltig bessere Rahmenbedingungen für Hochschulmitglieder mit Familienaufgaben zu schaffen. Familie umfasst dabei über die klassische Kernfamilie hinaus alle Lebensgemeinschaften, in denen eine langfristige soziale Verantwortung für andere wahrgenommen wird. ...