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Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns: a challenge for asset pricing models
(2020)
Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected returns by sorting stocks based on the sensitivity of expected returns to these quantities. Models with only one uncertainty-related state variable, like the habit model or the long-run risks model, cannot pass this test. However, even extensions with more state variables mostly fail. We derive criteria models have to satisfy to produce expected return patterns in line with the data and discuss various examples.
The possibility to investigate the impact of news on stock prices has observed a strong evolution thanks to the recent use of natural language processing (NLP) in finance and economics. In this paper, we investigate COVID-19 news, elaborated with the ”Natural Language Toolkit” that uses machine learning models to extract the news’ sentiment. We consider the period from January till June 2020 and analyze 203,886 online articles that deal with the pandemic and that were published on three platforms: MarketWatch.com, Reuters.com and NYtimes.com. Our findings show that there is a significant and positive relationship between sentiment score and market returns. This result indicates that an increase (decrease) in the sentiment score implies a rise in positive (negative) news and corresponds to positive (negative) market returns. We also find that the variance of the sentiments and the volume of the news sources for Reuters and MarketWatch, respectively, are negatively associated to market returns indicating that an increase of the uncertainty of the sentiment and an increase in the arrival of news have an adverse impact on the stock market.
This article discusses the counterpart of interactive machine learning, i.e., human learning while being in the loop in a human-machine collaboration. For such cases we propose the use of a Contradiction Matrix to assess the overlap and the contradictions of human and machine predictions. We show in a small-scaled user study with experts in the area of pneumology (1) that machine-learning based systems can classify X-rays with respect to diseases with a meaningful accuracy, (2) humans partly use contradictions to reconsider their initial diagnosis, and (3) that this leads to a higher overlap between human and machine diagnoses at the end of the collaboration situation. We argue that disclosure of information on diagnosis uncertainty can be beneficial to make the human expert reconsider her or his initial assessment which may ultimately result in a deliberate agreement. In the light of the observations from our project, it becomes apparent that collaborative learning in such a human-in-the-loop scenario could lead to mutual benefits for both human learning and interactive machine learning. Bearing the differences in reasoning and learning processes of humans and intelligent systems in mind, we argue that interdisciplinary research teams have the best chances at tackling this undertaking and generating valuable insights.
Using experimental data from a comprehensive field study, we explore the causal effects of algorithmic discrimination on economic efficiency and social welfare. We harness economic, game-theoretic, and state-of-the-art machine learning concepts allowing us to overcome the central challenge of missing counterfactuals, which generally impedes assessing economic downstream consequences of algorithmic discrimination. This way, we are able to precisely quantify downstream efficiency and welfare ramifications, which provides us a unique opportunity to assess whether the introduction of an AI system is actually desirable. Our results highlight that AI systems’ capabilities in enhancing welfare critically depends on the degree of inherent algorithmic biases. While an unbiased system in our setting outperforms humans and creates substantial welfare gains, the positive impact steadily decreases and ultimately reverses the more biased an AI system becomes. We show that this relation is particularly concerning in selective-labels environments, i.e., settings where outcomes are only observed if decision-makers take a particular action so that the data is selectively labeled, because commonly used technical performance metrics like the precision measure are prone to be deceptive. Finally, our results depict that continued learning, by creating feedback loops, can remedy algorithmic discrimination and associated negative effects over time.
In this paper we adopt the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) estimator for DSGE models by implementing it into a state-of-the-art, freely available high-performance software package. We estimate a small scale textbook New-Keynesian model and the Smets-Wouters model on US data. Our results and sampling diagnostics confirm the parameter estimates available in existing literature. In addition we combine the HMC framework with the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm which permits the estimation of DSGE models with ill-behaved posterior densities.
Background: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is one of the psychopathological consequences of sexual and/or physical abuse. The economic burden is assumed to be high, whereas health-related quality of life and education is negatively affected. This study aims to determine health care costs, health-related quality of life, and educational interruption in adolescents and young adults with PTSD after sexual and/or physical abuse in Germany.
Methods: This analysis used data of 87 participants aged 14–21 years of a randomized controlled trial. Health care utilization, health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L), sick leave days, productivity, and delay or failure to achieve educational aims were assessed. Health care costs from a payer perspective were calculated using unit costs for the year 2014.
Results: Mean health care costs for a six-month period were 5,243€ (SE 868€). In particular, costs of inpatient stays in psychiatric hospitals, general hospitals and rehabilitation as well as child welfare institutions were high. In addition, health-related quality of life was lower due to anxiety/depression, resulting in a mean EQ-5D index and EQ-VAS score of 0.70 and 61.0, respectively. Furthermore, participants reported on average 27 sick leave days, a productivity loss of 61%, and a delay in education attainment as well as having been unable to achieve educational aims.
Conclusion: PTSD in adolescents and young adults is associated with a high economic burden. Health-related quality of life was substantially reduced. Furthermore, delay and productivity losses in education were observed.
Clinical Trial Registration: German Clinical Trials Register identifier: DRKS00004787; date of registration: 18th March 2013; https://www.drks.de.
Previous studies in developing Xenopus and zebrafish reported that the phosphate transporter slc20a1a is expressed in pronephric kidneys. The recent identification of SLC20A1 as a monoallelic candidate gene for cloacal exstrophy further suggests its involvement in the urinary tract and urorectal development. However, little is known of the functional role of SLC20A1 in urinary tract development. Here, we investigated this using morpholino oligonucleotide knockdown of the zebrafish ortholog slc20a1a. This caused kidney cysts and malformations of the cloaca. Moreover, in morphants we demonstrated dysfunctional voiding and hindgut opening defects mimicking imperforate anus in human cloacal exstrophy. Furthermore, we performed immunohistochemistry of an unaffected 6-week-old human embryo and detected SLC20A1 in the urinary tract and the abdominal midline, structures implicated in the pathogenesis of cloacal exstrophy. Additionally, we resequenced SLC20A1 in 690 individuals with bladder exstrophy-epispadias complex (BEEC) including 84 individuals with cloacal exstrophy. We identified two additional monoallelic de novo variants. One was identified in a case-parent trio with classic bladder exstrophy, and one additional novel de novo variant was detected in an affected mother who transmitted this variant to her affected son. To study the potential cellular impact of SLC20A1 variants, we expressed them in HEK293 cells. Here, phosphate transport was not compromised, suggesting that it is not a disease mechanism. However, there was a tendency for lower levels of cleaved caspase-3, perhaps implicating apoptosis pathways in the disease. Our results suggest SLC20A1 is involved in urinary tract and urorectal development and implicate SLC20A1 as a disease-gene for BEEC.
We estimate the feeddown contributions from decays of unstable A=4 and A=5 nuclei to the final yields of protons, deuterons, tritons, 3He, and 4He produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions at sNN>2.4 GeV, using the statistical model. The feeddown contribution effects do not exceed 5% at LHC and top RHIC energies due to the large penalty factors involved, but are substantial at intermediate collision energies. We observe large feeddown contributions for tritons, 3He, and 4He at sNN≲10 GeV, where they may account for as much as 70% of the final yield at the lower end of the collision energies considered. Sizable (>10%) effects for deuteron yields are observed at sNN≲4 GeV. The results suggest that the excited nuclei feeddown cannot be neglected in the ongoing and future analysis of light nuclei production at intermediate collision energies, including HADES and CBM experiments at FAIR, NICA at JINR, RHIC beam energy scan and fixed-target programmes, and NA61/SHINE at CERN. We further show that the freeze-out curve in the T-μB plane itself is affected significantly by the light nuclei at high baryochemical potential.
In this paper, we discuss the damping of density oscillations in dense nuclear matter in the temperature range relevant to neutron star mergers. This damping is due to bulk viscosity arising from the weak interaction “Urca” processes of neutron decay and electron capture. The nuclear matter is modelled in the relativistic density functional approach. The bulk viscosity reaches a resonant maximum close to the neutrino trapping temperature, then drops rapidly as temperature rises into the range where neutrinos are trapped in neutron stars. We investigate the bulk viscous dissipation timescales in a post-merger object and identify regimes where these timescales are as short as the characteristic timescale ∼10 ms, and, therefore, might affect the evolution of the post-merger object. Our analysis indicates that bulk viscous damping would be important at not too high temperatures of the order of a few MeV and densities up to a few times saturation density.
This article elucidates the spatial order that underpins the politics of the Anthropocene – the ecological nomos of the earth – and criticizes its imperial origins and legacies. It provides a critical reading of Carl Schmitt’s spatial thought to not only illuminate the spatio-political ontology but also the violence and usurpations that characterize the Anthropocene condition. The article first shows how with the emergence of the ecological nomos seemingly ‘natural’ spaces like the biosphere and the atmosphere became politically charged. This challenges the modernist separation between natural facts and political norms. It then underlines the imperial origins of this nomos by introducing the concept of air-appropriation understood as the colonization of atmospheric space by CO2 emissions. Instead of assuming that the ecological nomos represents a transition from a colonial to an ecological and cosmopolitan world order, focusing on air-appropriation highlights forms of ecological imperialism that go along with the new nomos. Accordingly, the article calls for a just redistribution of ecospace that takes into account the imperial legacies and ongoing effects of air-appropriation.
Objective: To determine the impact of an exercise-based prehabilitation (EBPrehab) program on preand postoperative exercise capacity, functional capacity (FC) and quality of life (QoL) in patients awaiting elective coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG).
Design: A two-group randomized controlled trail.
Setting: Ambulatory prehabilitation.
Subjects: Overall 230 preoperative elective CABG-surgery patients were randomly assigned to an intervention (IG, n=88; n=27 withdrew after randomization) or control group (CG, n=115).
Intervention: IG: two-week EBPrehab including supervised aerobic exercise. CG: usual care.
Main measures: At baseline (T1), one day before surgery (T2), at the beginning (T3) and at the end of cardiac rehabilitation (T4) the following measurements were performed: cardiopulmonary exercise test, six-minute walk test (6MWT), Timed-Up-and-Go Test (TUG) and QoL (MacNew questionnaire).
Results: A total of 171 patients (IG, n=81; CG, n=90) completed the study. During EBPrehab no complications occurred. Preoperatively FC (6MWTIG: 443.0±80.1m to 493.5±75.5m, P=0.003; TUGIG: 6.9±2.0 s to 6.1±1.8 s, P=0.018) and QoL (IG: 5.1±0.9 to 5.4±0.9, P<0.001) improved significantly more in IG compared to CG. Similar effects were observed postoperatively in FC (6MWDIG: Δ-64.7m, pT1–T3=0.013; Δ+47.2m, pT1–T4<0.001; TUGIG: Δ+1.4s, pT1–T3=0.003).
Conclusions: A short-term EBPrehab is effective to improve perioperative FC and preoperative QoL in patients with stable coronary artery disease awaiting CABG-surgery.
Simple Summary
The interaction between tumors and immune cells influences tumor fate, i.e., regression, growth, or even metastases. The evaluation of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in human breast cancer has prognostic value. Pet rabbits develop spontaneous mammary carcinomas and have an immune system that is comparable with that of humans, so that they have the potential to provide an animal model for human breast cancer. To further substantiate this similarity, this study examined TILs in 107 pet rabbit mammary carcinomas according to criteria established for human breast cancer. For TIL evaluation routinely stained microscopic sections were examined by light microscopy. Relevant histological and immunohistochemical tumor characteristics were obtained from a data base. Results showed that increased presence of stromal TILs was statistically associated with histological tumor features indicative of a less aggressive biological behavior, i.e., reduced tumor cell proliferation and a lower histological grade. The expression by tumor cells of calponin, a presumed tumor suppressor protein, was also associated with their reduced proliferation and a higher percentage of stromal TILs. Data suggest that higher percentages of stromal TILs may have the potential to serve as favorable prognostic indicator in rabbit mammary carcinomas and support the value of pet rabbits for comparative research.
Abstract
Tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) serve as prognostic biomarker in human breast cancer. Rabbits have the potential to act as animal model for human breast cancer, and close similarities exist between the rabbit and human immune system. The aim of this study is to characterize TILs in pet rabbit mammary carcinomas and to statistically correlate results with histological and immunohistochemical tumor characteristics. Microscopic evaluation of TILs was performed in hematoxylin and eosin stained sections of 107 rabbit mammary carcinomas according to international guidelines for human breast cancer. Data on histological features of malignancy, estrogen and progesterone receptor status and calponin expression were obtained from the data base. This study revealed a statistical association between stromal TILs in the central tumor (CT) and infiltrative margin. Higher maximal percentages of stromal TILs at the CT were statistically correlated with decreased mitotic count and lower tumor grade. An increased number of calponin positive tumor cells was statistically associated with a lower mitotic count and a higher percentage of stromal TILs. Results suggest that higher percentages of stromal TILs are useful biomarkers that may point toward a favorable prognosis in rabbit mammary carcinomas and support the concept of the use of rabbits for translational research
Degeneration of neurons, such as the inner ear spiral ganglion neurons (SGN), may be decelerated or even stopped by neurotrophic factor treatment, such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), as well as electrical stimulation (ES). In a clinical setting, drug treatment of the SGN could start directly during implantation of a cochlear implant, whereas electrical stimulation begins days to weeks later. The present study was conducted to determine the effects of consecutive BDNF and ES treatments on SGN density and electrical responsiveness. An electrode drug delivery device was implanted in guinea pigs 3 weeks after deafening and five experimental groups were established: two groups received intracochlear infusion of artificial perilymph (AP) or BDNF; two groups were treated with AP respectively BDNF in addition to ES (AP + ES, BDNF + ES); and one group received BDNF from the day of implantation until day 34 followed by ES (BDNF ⇨ ES). Electrically evoked auditory brainstem responses were recorded. After one month of treatment, the tissue was harvested and the SGN density was assessed. The results show that consecutive treatment with BDNF and ES was as successful as the simultaneous combined treatment in terms of enhanced SGN density compared to the untreated contralateral side but not in regard to the numbers of protected cells.
Workaholism and overcommitment are often used as interchangeable constructs describing an individual’s over-involvement toward their own job. Employees with high levels in both constructs are characterized by an excessive effort and attachment to their job, with the incapability to detach from it and negative consequences in terms of poor health and job burnout. However, few studies have simultaneously measured both constructs, and their relationships are still not clear. In this study, we try to disentangle workaholism and overcommitment by comparing them with theoretically related contextual and personal antecedents, as well as their health consequences. We conducted a nonprobability mixed mode research design on 133 employees from different organizations in Italy using both self- and other-reported measures. To test our hypothesis that workaholism and overcommitment are related yet different constructs, we used partial correlations and regression analyses. The results confirm that these two constructs are related to each other, but also outline that overcommitment (and not workaholism) is uniquely related to job burnout, so that overcommitment rather than workaholism could represent the true negative aspect of work drive. Additionally, workaholism is more related to conscientiousness than overcommitment, while overcommitment shows a stronger relationship with neuroticism than workaholism. The theoretical implications are discussed.
This paper provides new geochemical data focusing on valuable elements in the coal, parting, and floor samples in the No. 5 coal seam of the Taiyuan Formation from the Wujiawan mine, Datong coalfield, northern China. The minerals mainly consist of kaolinite, calcite, and pyrite, as well as trace amounts of quartz and illite. The No. 5 coal is enriched in Li, Ga, high field strength elements (HFSEs), and rare earth elements and yttrium (REY) when compared with world hard coals. Of particular interest is the high average concentration of Li (67.66 μg/g), which is around seven times higher than the value for world hard coals. Lithium, Ga, and HFSEs have strong inorganic affinities, whereas REY have organic affinities. The main carrier of Li, Ga, and HFSEs is aluminosilicate minerals, while REY appear to occur with organophosphorus. These HFSEs are enriched, both in the parting and in the adjacent coal samples. This suggests that these elements are likely to leach out during the diagenetic process. The distribution patterns of REY, along with the ratio of Al2O3/TiO2 and the figure of Zr/TiO2 vs. Nb/Y are suggestive of their derivation from felsic parent material. In the northern and eastern part of the Datong coalfield, there are several regions where the Li content is higher than the mineable grade, in particular in the northern Datong coalfield where there is a mine with an Li content of 294.6 μg/g. This is significantly higher than the mineable grade. Therefore, there is a potential for financially viable recovery of Li in these coals of the Datong coalfield.
Virtual reality (VR) headsets offer a large and immersive workspace for displaying visualizations with stereoscopic vision, as compared to traditional environments with monitors or printouts. The controllers for these devices further allow direct three-dimensional interaction with the virtual environment. In this paper, we make use of these advantages to implement a novel multiple and coordinated view (MCV) system in the form of a vertical stack, showing tilted layers of geospatial data. In a formal study based on a use-case from urbanism that requires cross-referencing four layers of geospatial urban data, we compared it against more conventional systems similarly implemented in VR: a simpler grid of layers, and one map that allows for switching between layers. Performance and oculometric analyses showed a slight advantage of the two spatial-multiplexing methods (the grid or the stack) over the temporal multiplexing in blitting. Subgrouping the participants based on their preferences, characteristics, and behavior allowed a more nuanced analysis, allowing us to establish links between e.g., saccadic information, experience with video games, and preferred system. In conclusion, we found that none of the three systems are optimal and a choice of different MCV systems should be provided in order to optimally engage users.
The morbidity and mortality of severely injured patients are commonly affected by multiple factors. Especially, severe chest trauma has been shown to be a significant factor in considering outcome. Contemporaneously, weight-associated endocrinological, haematological, and metabolic deviations from the norm seem to have an impact on the posttraumatic course. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the influence of body weight on severely injured patients by emphasizing chest trauma. A total of 338 severely injured patients were included. Multivariate regression analyses were performed on patients with severe chest trauma (AIS ≥ 3) and patients with minor chest trauma (AIS < 3). The influence of body weight on in-hospital mortality was evaluated. Of all the patients, 70.4% were male, the median age was 52 years (IQR 36–68), the overall Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 24 points (IQR 17–29), and a median BMI of 25.1 points (IQR 23–28) was determined. In general, chest trauma was associated with prolonged ventilation, prolonged ICU treatment, and increased mortality. For overweight patients with severe chest trauma, an independent survival benefit was found (OR 0.158; p = 0.037). Overweight seems to have an impact on the mortality of severely injured patients with combined chest trauma. Potentially, a nutritive advantage or still-unknown immunological aspects in these patients affecting the intensive treatment course could be argued.
Focused electron beam induced deposition (FEBID) is a direct-write nanofabrication technique able to pattern three-dimensional magnetic nanostructures at resolutions comparable to the characteristic magnetic length scales. FEBID is thus a powerful tool for 3D nanomagnetism which enables unique fundamental studies involving complex 3D geometries, as well as nano-prototyping and specialized applications compatible with low throughputs. In this focused review, we discuss recent developments of this technique for applications in 3D nanomagnetism, namely the substantial progress on FEBID computational methods, and new routes followed to tune the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic FEBID materials. We also review a selection of recent works involving FEBID 3D nanostructures in areas such as scanning probe microscopy sensing, magnetic frustration phenomena, curvilinear magnetism, magnonics and fluxonics, offering a wide perspective of the important role FEBID is likely to have in the coming years in the study of new phenomena involving 3D magnetic nanostructures.
Importance Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. Case reports of hospitalized patients suggest that COVID-19 prominently affects the cardiovascular system, but the overall impact remains unknown.
Objective To evaluate the presence of myocardial injury in unselected patients recently recovered from COVID-19 illness.
Design, Setting, and Participants In this prospective observational cohort study, 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 illness were identified from the University Hospital Frankfurt COVID-19 Registry between April and June 2020.
Exposure Recent recovery from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, as determined by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction on swab test of the upper respiratory tract.
Main Outcomes and Measures Demographic characteristics, cardiac blood markers, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging were obtained. Comparisons were made with age-matched and sex-matched control groups of healthy volunteers (n = 50) and risk factor–matched patients (n = 57).
Results Of the 100 included patients, 53 (53%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 49 (14) years. The median (IQR) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and CMR was 71 (64-92) days. Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization. At the time of CMR, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) was detectable (greater than 3 pg/mL) in 71 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (71%) and significantly elevated (greater than 13.9 pg/mL) in 5 patients (5%). Compared with healthy controls and risk factor–matched controls, patients recently recovered from COVID-19 had lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher left ventricle volumes, and raised native T1 and T2. A total of 78 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (78%) had abnormal CMR findings, including raised myocardial native T1 (n = 73), raised myocardial native T2 (n = 60), myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (n = 32), or pericardial enhancement (n = 22). There was a small but significant difference between patients who recovered at home vs in the hospital for native T1 mapping (median [IQR], 1119 [1092-1150] ms vs 1141 [1121-1175] ms; P = .008) and hsTnT (4.2 [3.0-5.9] pg/dL vs 6.3 [3.4-7.9] pg/dL; P = .002) but not for native T2 mapping. None of these measures were correlated with time from COVID-19 diagnosis (native T1: r = 0.07; P = .47; native T2: r = 0.14; P = .15; hsTnT: r = −0.07; P = .50). High-sensitivity troponin T was significantly correlated with native T1 mapping (r = 0.33; P < .001) and native T2 mapping (r = 0.18; P = .01). Endomyocardial biopsy in patients with severe findings revealed active lymphocytic inflammation. Native T1 and T2 were the measures with the best discriminatory ability to detect COVID-19–related myocardial pathology.
Conclusions and Relevance In this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.