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Institute
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (140) (remove)
We study the effects of market incompleteness on speculation, investor survival, and asset pricing moments, when investors disagree about the likelihood of jumps and have recursive preferences. We consider two models. In a model with jumps in aggregate consumption, incompleteness barely matters, since the consumption claim resembles an insurance product against jump risk and effectively reproduces approximate spanning. In a long-run risk model with jumps in the long-run growth rate, market incompleteness affects speculation, and investor survival. Jump and diffusive risks are more balanced regarding their importance and, therefore, the consumption claim cannot reproduce approximate spanning.
Libra – a global virtual currency project initiated by Facebook – has been the subject of many controversial discussions since its announcement in June 2019. This paper provides a differentiated view on Libra, recognising that different development scenarios of Libra are conceivable.
Libra could serve purely as an alternative payment system in combination with a dedicated payment token, the Libra coin. Alternatively, the Libra project could develop into a broader financial infrastructure for advanced financial services such as savings and loan products operating on the Libra blockchain. Based on a comparison of the Libra architecture with other cryptocurrencies, the opportunities and challenges for the development of the respective Libra ecosystems are investigated form a commercial, regulatory and monetary policy perspective.
Since the financial crisis financial literacy has attracted growing interest among researchers and policy makers, as there is international empirical evidence that financial literacy is poor among both adults and students. In Germany we have almost no empirical evidence on financial literacy, especially in the case of students attending secondary schools, as financial education has not featured on German school curricula to date. Besides, Germany has not yet participated in the optional financial literacy module of PISA, which was offered for the first time in 2012. However, a lack of private pension provisioning, in spite of demographic change, and low stock ownership among German households indicate a deficit in financial knowledge and skills in this country as well.
In this paper we investigate financial literacy among students aged 14 to 16 attending a secondary school in the state of Hesse. The foundation is a test designed according to international standards. The statistical analysis of the test reveals substantial deficits in key areas of financial literacy. Particular deficits could be identified in the fields of basic knowledge of financial matters and, to an even greater degree, in more advanced concepts such as risk diversification. Applying interest calculations to financial matters turned out to be problematic for many students.
Furthermore, the paper analyses the impact of gender and type of school on the overall test score as well as test performance in specific tasks. The findings suggest that financial matters should be covered in some form at secondary schools. In light of the potentially far-reaching consequences of financial illiteracy for financial wellbeing, German participation in future PISA financial literacy tests seems highly advisable to gain a deeper understanding of the preliminary findings presented in this paper.
Big data, data mining, machine learning und predictive analytics – ein konzeptioneller Überblick
(2019)
Mit der fortschreitenden Digitalisierung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft wächst die Bedeutung von Big Data Analytics, maschinellem Lernen und Künstlicher Intelligenz für die Analyse und Pognose ökonomischer Trends. Allerdings werden in wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussionen diese Begriffe häufig verwendet, ohne dass jeweils klar zwischen den einzelnen Methoden und Disziplinen differenziert würde. Daher soll nachfolgend ein konzeptioneller Überblick über die Gemeinsamkeiten, Unterschiede und Interdependenzen der vielfältigen Begrifflichkeiten im Bereich Data Science gegeben werden. Denn gerade für Entscheidungsträger aus Wirtschaft und Politik kann eine grundlegende Einordnung der Konzepte eine sachgerechte Diskussion über politische Weichenstellungen erleichtern.
In this exploratory article, we consider the future of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank and develop a new approach to the topic: instead of a merger of DB and CB we propose to consider a partial merger of the IT and related back office functions in order to create the basis for an Open Banking platform in Germany. Such a platform would act as a cross-institutional infrastructure company in which the participating banks develop a common data and IT platform (while respecting the data protection regulations). Significant parts of the transaction processes would be pooled by the institutions and executed by the Open Banking platform. Moreover, the institutions remain legally independent and compete with each other at the level of products and services that are developed and produced using just this common data and IT platform – “national champions” would not be created.
But such an “Open Banking Platform” could become even the nucleus of a European Banking platform that could be competitive with existing global data platforms from the USA and China which are already offering financial services and are likely to expand their offerings in the foreseeable future. The proposed model of an open data platform for banks prevents the emergence of national champions and supports the main goal of the banking union: creation of a financial system, in which single banks can be resolved without provoking a systemic crisis and forcing taxpayers to finance bailouts.
In diesem explorativen Beitrag machen wir uns Gedanken über die Zukunft von Deutscher Bank und Commerzbank und entwickeln einen neuen Zugang zu dem Thema: Statt einer Fusion von DB und CB schlagen wir eine Teilfusion nur der Datenzentren vor – es entsteht auf diese Weise die Grundlage für eine Open Banking Plattform als „utility“, also als Betrieb im Eigentum der Nutzer, an der perspektivisch weitere Finanzinstitute teilnehmen können. Die über die Daten kooperierenden Institute bleiben mit Blick auf Produkte und Dienstleistungen unverändert Konkurrenten – „national champions“ entstehen auf diese Weise nicht. Aber es wird damit in Europa die Basis für einen erfolgversprechenden Wettbewerb mit den großen Datenplattformen aus USA und China (Facebook, Amazon, Alipay) gelegt, die früher oder später in den Finanzmarkt eindringen werden. Das von uns vorgeschlagene Modell einer offenen Datenplattform für Banken verhindert das Entstehen von „national champions“ und schützt damit auch das Kernanliegen der Bankenunion: Die Schaffung eines Finanzsystems, dessen Banken jede für sich ausscheiden können ohne eine systemische Krise auszulösen, und ohne den Steuerzahler zu einer Rettungsaktion zu zwingen