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The authors embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and skill obsolescence from long-term unemployment. The model can account for key features of the Great Recession: a decline in productivity growth, the relative stability of inflation despite a pronounced fall in output (the "missing disinflation puzzle"), and a permanent gap between output and the pre-crisis trend output.
In the model, lower aggregate demand raises unemployment and the training costs associated with skill obsolescence. Lower employment hinders learning-by-doing, which slows down human capital accumulation, feeding back into even fewer vacancies than justified by the demand shock alone. These feedback channels mitigate the disinflationary effect of the demand shock while amplifying its contractionary effect on output. The temporary growth slowdown translates into output hysteresis (permanently lower output and labor productivity).
Occasionally binding constraints have become an important part of economic modelling, especially since western central banks see themselves (again) constraint by the so-called zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate. A binding ZLB constraint poses a major problem for a quantitative-structural analysis: Linear solution methods do no work in the presence of a non-linearity such as the ZLB and existing alternatives tend to be computationally demanding. The urge to study macroeconomic questions related to the Great Recession and the Covid-19 crisis in a quantitative-structural framework requires algorithms that are not only accurate, but that are also robust, fast, and computationally efficient.
A particularly important application where efficient and fast methods for occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) are needed is the Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models. This paper shows that a linear dynamic rational expectations system with OBCs, depending on the expected duration of the constraint, can be represented in closed form. Combined with a set of simple equilibrium conditions, this can be exploited to avoid matrix inversions and simulations at runtime for signifcant gains in computational speed.
Central banks sometimes evaluate their own policies. To assess the inherent conflict of interest, the authors compare the research findings of central bank researchers and academic economists regarding the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE). They find that central bank papers report larger effects of QE on output and inflation. Central bankers are also more likely to report significant effects of QE on output and to use more positive language in the abstract. Central bankers who report larger QE effects on output experience more favorable career outcomes. A survey of central banks reveals substantial involvement of bank management in research production.
Empirical estimates of equilibrium real interest rates are so far mostly limited to advanced economies, since no statistical procedure suitable for a large set of countries is available. This is surprising, as equilibrium rates have strong policy implications in emerging markets and developing economies as well; current estimates of the global equilibrium rate rely on only a few countries; and estimates for a more diverse set of countries can improve understanding of the drivers. The authors propose a model and estimation strategy that decompose ex ante real interest rates into a permanent and transitory component even with short samples and high volatility. This is done with an unobserved component local level stochastic volatility model, which is used to estimate equilibrium rates for 50 countries with Bayesian methods.
Equilibrium rates were lower in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies in the 1980s, similar in the 1990s, and have been higher since 2000. In line with economic integration and rising global capital markets, synchronization has been rising over time and is higher among advanced economies. Equilibrium rates of countries with stronger trade linkages and similar demographic and economic trends are more synchronized.
With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, banks face a challenging environment. They will need to address disappointing results and adverse balance sheet restatements, the intensity of which depends on the evolution of the euro area economies. At the same time, vulnerable banks reinforce real economy deficiencies. The contribution of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the various policy responses to address a looming banking crisis. Such a crisis will fully materialize when non-performing assets drag down banks simultaneously, raising the specter of a full-blown systemic crisis. The policy responses available range from forbearance, recapitalization (with public or private resources), asset separation (bad banks, at national or EU level), to debt conversion schemes. We evaluate these responses according to a set of five criteria that define the efficacy of each. These responses are not mutually exclusive, in practice, as they have never been. They may also go hand in hand with other restructuring initiatives, including potential consolidation in the banking sector. Although we do not make a specific recommendation, we provide a framework for policymakers to guide them in their decision making.
This policy white paper shows, using data on European Commission (EC) lobby meetings, that financial institutions and finance trade associations have substantial access to EC policymakers. While lobbying could transfer policy-relevant information and expertise to policymakers, it could also result in the capture of policymakers by the industry, which could harm consumers and taxpayers. How could policymakers prevent regulatory capture, but retain the benefits of the sector expertise in policy decisions? Awareness of regulatory capture by policymakers is one of the most important remedies. This paper provides an overview of the origins of the regulatory capture theory and recent academic evidence. The paper shows that regulatory capture could emerge in a variety of institutions and policy areas but is not ubiquitous and depends on the incentives of policymakers and the policy environment. Subsequently, the paper discusses various measures to prevent regulatory capture, such as more transparency, diverse expert groups, and cooling-off periods.
The genetic background of pain is becoming increasingly well understood, which opens up possibilities for predicting the individual risk of persistent pain and the use of tailored therapies adapted to the variant pattern of the patient’s pain-relevant genes. The individual variant pattern of pain-relevant genes is accessible via next-generation sequencing, although the analysis of all “pain genes” would be expensive. Here, we report on the development of a cost-effective next generation sequencing-based pain-genotyping assay comprising the development of a customized AmpliSeq™ panel and bioinformatics approaches that condensate the genetic information of pain by identifying the most representative genes. The panel includes 29 key genes that have been shown to cover 70% of the biological functions exerted by a list of 540 so-called “pain genes” derived from transgenic mice experiments. These were supplemented by 43 additional genes that had been independently proposed as relevant for persistent pain. The functional genomics covered by the resulting 72 genes is particularly represented by mitogen-activated protein kinase of extracellular signal-regulated kinase and cytokine production and secretion. The present genotyping assay was established in 61 subjects of Caucasian ethnicity and investigates the functional role of the selected genes in the context of the known genetic architecture of pain without seeking functional associations for pain. The assay identified a total of 691 genetic variants, of which many have reports for a clinical relevance for pain or in another context. The assay is applicable for small to large-scale experimental setups at contemporary genotyping costs.
In den letzen 30 bis 40 Jahren sind Kommunen verstärkt dazu übergegangen die in ihrem Besitz befindlichen Flächen zu verkaufen und so ihre kommunalen Gestaltungsspielräume zu verlieren. Diese Privatisierungspolitik der „unternehmerischen Stadt“ hat verkannt, dass Boden für Kommunen ein endliches und essentielles Gut ist, welches nicht vermehrt werden kann.
Gerade in den lokalen Räumen der Kommunen wird der Kampf um den begrenzten Boden besonders sichtbar. Das Alltagsleben der Menschen wird dadurch bestimmt, ob Boden im Privateigentum ist und vorrangig der Kapitalvermehrung dient oder ob Boden ein gesellschaftliches Gemeingut ist. Die Privatisierung neoliberaler Kommunalpolitik hat – entgegen der Erwartungen – weder das Leben in den Städten besser noch günstiger gemacht. Die Kosten für Mieten und die privatisierten Leistungen aus Daseinsvorsorge sind in den letzten Jahrzehnten extrem gestiegen. Letztere wurden z. T. auch verkleinert oder vollkommen aufgegeben, wie z. B. der öffentliche Nahverkehr in ländlichen Räumen oder die Schließungen von Kultureinrichtungen, Jugendzentren oder Schwimmbädern.
Auf diese Phase neoliberaler Bodenpolitik ist zunehmend eine polanyische Gegenbewegung zu beobachten, die für den sozial-ökologischen Schutz eintritt. Die Menschen in den Kommunen wollen und können diese Entwicklung nicht weiter hinnehmen. Und auch die Lokalpolitik schwenkt z. T. um, indem sie Forderungen der Rekommunaliserung und sozialverträglicher Mieten unterstützt.
Trotz dieser progressiven Entwicklungen ist gerade die Vergabe von Gewerbeflächen nach wie vor durch ein neoliberales Paradigma der Standortkonkurrenz und Austerität geprägt. In diesem Sinne muss die Vergabe von Boden zuallererst ökonomisch sinnvoll sein. Andere Aspekte werden oft ausgeklammert, da sie unter Finanzierungsvorbehalt stehen. Diese Vergabepraxis ist quasi alternativlos und damit postpolitisch. Obwohl diese Entscheidungen die Kommunen langfristig prägen, werden soziale und ökologische Aspekte der ökonomischen Frage untergeordnet. Die Berücksichtigung von Gemeinwohlaspekten, die sich in einem Kriterienkatalog zur Gewerbeflächenvergabe wiederfinden können, bietet Kommunen die Möglichkeit, eine andere – gemeinwohlorientierte – Handlungsrationalität einzunehmen. Die Entscheidungsgrundlage für die Gewerbeflächenvergabe würden mit solchen Kriterien grundlegend neu justiert werden, da sie nicht mehr auf rein ökonomischen, sondern auf sozialen und ökologischen Werten beruht.
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie eine gemeinwohlorientierte Gewerbeflächenvergabe gestaltet werden kann, indem sie die kommunalen Handlungsspielräume erweitert und so einen Beitrag für eine sozial-ökologische Gegenbewegung zur neoliberalen Kommunalpolitik leistet. Sie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass für eine kommunale sozial-ökologische Transformation die Wirtschaft wieder stärker in die Gesellschaft eingebettet werden muss (Polanyi 1944). Eine dementsprechende Gewerbeflächenvergabe setzt daher auf die Dekommodifizierung der Flächen, d. h. sie fördert öffentliche und kollektive Eigentumsformen. Außerdem fördert sie kollektive sozial-ökologische Nutzungsformen der Flächen, die dem Gemeinwohl der Bewohner*innen in der Region dienen. Zur Umsetzung könnten Kommunen Gemeinwohl-Kriterien zur Gewerbeflächenvergabe aufstellen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird hierzu ein möglicher Kriterienkatalog entwickelt.
Lenalidomide (LEN) maintenance (MT) post autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is standard of care in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) but has not been compared to other agents in clinical trials. We retrospectively compared bortezomib (BTZ; n = 138) or LEN (n = 183) MT from two subsequent GMMG phase III trials. All patients received three cycles of BTZ-based triplet induction and post-ASCT MT. BTZ MT (1.3 mg/m2 i.v.) was administered every 2 weeks for 2 years. LEN MT included two consolidation cycles (25 mg p.o., days 1–21 of 28 day cycles) followed by 10–15 mg/day for 2 years. The BTZ cohort more frequently received tandem ASCT (91% vs. 33%) due to different tandem ASCT strategies. In the LEN and BTZ cohort, 43% and 46% of patients completed 2 years of MT as intended (p = 0.57). Progression-free survival (PFS; HR = 0.83, p = 0.18) and overall survival (OS; HR = 0.70, p = 0.15) did not differ significantly with LEN vs. BTZ MT. Patients with <nCR after first ASCT were assigned tandem ASCT in both trials. In patients with <nCR and tandem ASCT (LEN: n = 54 vs. BTZ: n = 84), LEN MT significantly improved PFS (HR = 0.61, p = 0.04) but not OS (HR = 0.46, p = 0.09). In conclusion, the significant PFS benefit after eliminating the impact of different tandem ASCT rates supports the current standard of LEN MT after ASCT.
The working paper reflects on the status that "sciences" have held at different points in time, and on the normative orders found in scientific works, as well as on the normative orders imposed by the sciences of a particular place and time on their environment. The latter is also suggested by recent developments concerning the influence (or lack thereof) of scientists on daily life and politics. The paper touches on several fundamental issues in the history of science as a discipline that have been or are still being intensely debated.