Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F)
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Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man‐made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low‐income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
The accurate knowledge of the groundwater storage variation (ΔGWS) is essential for reliable water resource assessment, particularly in arid and semi-arid environments (e.g., Australia, the North China Plain (NCP)) where water storage is significantly affected by human activities and spatiotemporal climate variations. The large-scale ΔGWS can be simulated from a land surface model (LSM), but the high model uncertainty is a major drawback that reduces the reliability of the estimates. The evaluation of the model estimate is then very important to assess its accuracy. To improve the model performance, the terrestrial water storage variation derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission is commonly assimilated into LSMs to enhance the accuracy of the ΔGWS estimate. This study assimilates GRACE data into the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model. The GRACE data assimilation (DA) is developed based on the three-dimensional ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS 3D), which considers the statistical correlation of all extents (spatial, temporal, vertical) in the DA process. The ΔGWS estimates from GRACE DA and four LSM simulations (PCR-GLOBWB, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE), the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), and World-Wide Water (W3)) are validated against the in situ groundwater data. The evaluation is conducted in terms of temporal correlation, seasonality, long-term trend, and detection of groundwater depletion. The GRACE DA estimate shows a significant improvement in all measures, notably the correlation coefficients (respect to the in situ data) are always higher than the values obtained from model simulations alone (e.g., ~0.15 greater in Australia, and ~0.1 greater in the NCP). GRACE DA also improves the estimation of groundwater depletion that the models cannot accurately capture due to the incorrect information of the groundwater demand (in, e.g., PCR-GLOBWB, WGHM) or the unavailability of a groundwater consumption routine (in, e.g., CABLE, W3). In addition, this study conducts the inter-comparison between four model simulations and reveals that PCR-GLOBWB and CABLE provide a more accurate ΔGWS estimate in Australia (subject to the calibrated parameter) while PCR-GLOBWB and WGHM are more accurate in the NCP (subject to the inclusion of anthropogenic factors). The analysis can be used to declare the status of the ΔGWS estimate, as well as itemize the possible improvements of the future model development.
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.