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In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007) and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. However, optimized monetary policy rules differ across models and lack robustness. Model averaging offers an effective strategy for improving the robustness of policy rules.
Missachtung rechtlicher Vorgaben des AEUV durch die Mitgliedstaaten und die EZB in der Schuldenkrise
(2012)
Zusammenfassung und Ergebnisse
1. Es gibt gute Argumente für ein generelles Verbot (freiwilliger) Unterstützungsleistungen an Euro-Mitgliedstaaten.
2. Die Vereinbarkeit der Leistungen der EU im Rahmen des EFSM mit Art. 122 Abs. 2 AEUV ist fraglich. Die Beurteilung der Kausalitätsfrage ist maßgebend.
3. Die Vereinbarkeit der Leistungen der Mitgliedstaaten im Rahmen der speziellen Griechenlandhilfe und im Rahmen der EFSF mit dem AEUV in der damals geltenden Fassung ist nicht sicher.
4. Die Einführung von Art. 136 Abs. 3 AEUV modifiziert das Vertragsrecht und ist wohl noch in Einklang mit Art. 48 Abs. 6 EUV erfolgt.
5. ESM und Fiskalpakt verstoßen nach der Änderung des Primärrechts wohl nicht gegen den AEUV.
6. Unabdingbar für die Schaffung des ESM sind aber das Inkrafttreten von Art. 136 Abs. 3 AEUV und
7. Der Erwerb von Forderungen gegen Mitgliedstaaten über einen längeren Zeitraum und zur Erleichterung von Zinslasten überschreitet die Befugnisse und Zuständigkeiten des ESZB.
8. Der Erwerb von Forderungen gegen Mitgliedstaaten über einen längeren Zeitraum und zur Erleichterung von Zinslasten ist nicht mit dem Verbot der Kreditgewährung durch Zentralbanken an Hoheitsträger nach Art. 123 AEUV zu vereinbaren
9. Die Gewährung von langfristigen Krediten an Banken verstößt ebenfalls gegen die Zuständigkeitsordnung des AEUV und ist bei einer Weiterleitung der Mittel an Hoheitsträger nicht mit Art. 123 AEUV zu vereinbaren.
10. Die Akzeptierung von ausfallgefährdeten Forderungen als Sicherheit für die Gewährung von Krediten durch das ESZB verstößt gegen Art. 18.1., zweiter Spiegelstrich, Satzung ESZB/EZB.
1 Editorial ; 2 Increased Disclosure Requirements for the Supervisory Boards of Stock Corporations ; 3 Can Facebook Predict Stock Market Activity? ; 4 Combining Structured and Unstructured Data :Sources for Support in Financial Decision Making ; 5 Liikanen Commission makes proposals for an efficient and sustainable financial system ; 6 INTERVIEW: What Economists Can Learn from Neuroscientists ; 7 News ; 8 Selected Research and Policy Publications
Wirtschaftliche Umbrüche, wie sie mit der deutschen Wiedervereinigung verbunden waren, sind in industrialisierten Ländern selten. Sie bieten deshalb aus wissenschaftlicher Sicht eine wertvolle Gelegenheit, um Erkenntnisse über das ökonomische Verhalten von Menschen zu gewinnen. Das Sparverhalten der Ostdeutschen nach der deutschen Wiedervereinigung bestätigt, dass Menschen ihre Ersparnis rational planen.
Vielfältige Einschnitte im Rentensystem haben die Bedeutung der privaten Altersvorsorge in den vergangenen Jahren massiv erhöht. Neben Immobilienbesitz, Lebensversicherungen und staatlich geförderten Programmen zur privaten Vorsorge hat sich inzwischen auch die eigenverantwortliche Altersvorsorge mit Wertpapierdepots etabliert, so dass die Anzahl privater Depots in den letzten 25 Jahren von 8,0 auf 27,9 Millionen gestiegen ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die Frage von zentraler Bedeutung, wie gut Anleger ihr Geld investieren.
Die ersten »Banknoten« waren Schuldscheine oder Quittungen für hinterlegte Edelmetalle. Erst mit der Abkopplung von Papier und Einlage eröffneten sich neue Möglichkeiten der Finanzierung für Banken und Staatslenker – mit den entsprechenden Risiken. Der historische Blick auf die unterschiedlichen geldpolitischen Interessen von Regierungen, Privat- und Zentralbanken wirft auch ein neues Licht auf die Hintergründe der gegenwärtigen Krise.
Parallel Banking – Frankfurt Can Bring some Light into the Darkness_3
THOMAS SCHÄFER
Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis_4
ALEXANDER BICK | STEPHANIE KREMER | DIETER NAUTZ
Who Benefits from Building Insurance Groups?_6
SEBASTIAN SCHLÜTTER | HELMUT GRÜNDL
IT Innovation: Mindfully Resisting the Bandwagon_8
ROMAN BECK | WOLFGANG KÖNIG | IMMANUEL PAHLKE | MARTIN WOLF
“The Part-Time Master in Finance is GBS' Answer to the Bologna Process”_10
UWE WALZ
House of Finance Wins New LOEWE Center_12
0 Home ; 1 Editorial ; 2 Do Information Rents in Loan Spreads Persist over the Business Cycle? ; 3 Regulation of Executive Pay in Germany - Perspectives of Optimal Contracting and Managerial Power ; 4 Linking Customer and Financial Metrics to Shareholder Value ; 5 Policy Platform: Recommendations for the Regulation of Shadow Banking ; 6 INTERVIEW – Lars-Hendrik Röller: "Theory Needs to Address the Right Kind of Policy Questions" ; 7 News ; 8 Selected Research and Policy Publications
Editorial : Andreas Dombret "Regulating Systemically Important Financial Institutions is Vitally Important" ; Research Money/Macro : Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Michael Haliassos "International Portfolio Differences: Environment versus Characteristics" ; Research Finance : Raimond Maurer, Ralph Rogalla, Yuanyuan Shen "Optimal Asset Allocation in Retirement with Open-end Real Estate Funds" ; Research Law : Theodor Baums "Shareholder Suits in German Company Law – An Empirical Study" ; Policy Platform : Helmut Siekmann, Patrick Tuschl "Constitutional Ruling on Court of Auditors' Review of Banks" ; Interview : Michael S. Barr "Information Does not Necessarily Lead to Understanding"
I evaluate the effect of inflation targeting on inflation and how it interacts with product market deregulation during the disinflationary process in the 1990s. Using a sample of 21 OECD countries, I show that, after controlling for product market deregulation, the effect of inflation targeting is quantitatively important and statistically significant. Moreover, product market deregulation also matters in particular in countries that adopted an inflation targeting regime. I propose a New Keynesian Phillips curve with an explicit role for market deregulation to rationalize the empirical evidence.
The lessons from QE and other 'unconventional' monetary policies - evidence from the Bank of England
(2011)
This paper investigates the effectiveness of the ‘quantitative easing’ policy, as implemented by the Bank of England in March 2009. Similar policies had been previously implemented in Japan, the U.S. and the Eurozone. The effectiveness is measured by the impact of Bank of England policies (including, but not limited to QE) on nominal GDP growth – the declared goal of the policy, according to the Bank of England. Unlike the majority of the literature on the topic, the general-to-specific econometric modeling methodology (a.k.a. the ‘Hendry’ or ‘LSE’ methodology) is employed for this purpose. The empirical analysis indicates that QE as defined and announced in March 2009 had no apparent effect on the UK economy. Meanwhile, it is found that a policy of ‘quantitative easing’ defined in the original sense of the term (Werner, 1994) is supported by empirical evidence: a stable relationship between a lending aggregate (disaggregated M4 lending, i.e. bank credit for GDP transactions) and nominal GDP is found. The findings imply that BoE policy should more directly target the growth of bank credit for GDP-transactions.
Editorial: Jens Weidmann : "Central Banks and Monetary Policy after the Crisis" Research Finance: Holger Kraft,Claus Munk : "Optimal Housing, Consumption, and Investment Decisions over the Life Cycle" Research Money/Macro: Ester Faia, Eleni Iliopulos : "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy" Research Law: Andreas Cahn, D. Schöneberger : "Shareholder Governance in Europe" Policy Platform: Michael Haliassos, Dimitri Vayanos : "Getting Greece Back on Track: How?" Interview: Raimond Maurer, Ralph Rogalla : "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions"
Editorial: Jürgen Stark : The ECB's Chief Economist about inflation targeting, liquidity support and the sovereign debt crisis Research Finance: Yulia Plyakha, Raman Uppal, Grigory Vilkov : "Why Does the Equally Weighted Portfolio Outperform the Value and Price Weighted Portfolios?" Research Law: Manfred Wandt : "Legal Objectives of the Solvency II Framework Directive" Research E-Finance: Roman Beck, Timm Pintner, Martin Wolf : "Individual Mindfulness to Mitigate Information Overload within Financial Organizations" Policy Platform: Peter Gomber, Björn Arndt, Marco Lutat, Tim Uhle : "Regulation of High-Frequency Trading – A European Perspective" Interview: Norbert Walter : "The Risko of Compromising on Price Stability Must not be Taken"
Editorial: Michael Heise : The Chief Economist of Allianz SE about the economic outlook for 2011 Research Finance: Andreas Hackethal, Utpal Bhattacharya, Benjamin Loos, Simon Kaesler, Steffen Meyer : "Unbiased Financial Advice – Wanted but not Followed" Research Law: Katja Langenbucher : "Insider Trading in Europe" Research Money/Macro: Thomas Laubach, Michael U. Krause, Matthias Hoffmann : "Long-Run Growth Expectations and Current Account Balances" Policy Platform: Heinz Hilgert, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Günther Merl, Helmut Siekmann : "Proposal for a Reorganisation of the German Landesbanks and Savings Banks Sector" Interview: Viral V. Acharya : "The Dodd-Frank Act Leaves a Lot to be Desired"
House of Finance
(2010)
In my dissertation I study the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian DSGE models. In the first chapter we revisit the exchange rate channel in a two-country model of the U.S. and a panel of industrialized countries to analyse how monetary policy transmission in the U.S. changes if it becomes more trade integrated. We find that more openness lowers the sacrifice ratio, although the effect is quantitatively small and depends on the pricing of the firms. In the second chapter we simulate the impact of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package in 2009 on GDP. We find that the government spendingmultiplier is well below 1. The finding is robust to including rule-of-thumb consumers and simulating the stimulus in the recent recession. In the third chapter we collect the fiscal stimulus measures in the eleven biggest countries of the euro area. Then we do a robustness study by simulating the european package in five different models of the euro area. The macroeconomic models vary in terms of backward-looking decision making of the agents and openness. Our findings provide no support for a Keynesian multiplier. Instead they suggest that additional government spending will reduce private spending for consumption and investment purposes. If government spending faces an implementation lag, the initial effect on GDP may even be negative. In the fourth chapter I estimate a DSGE model for Germany and compute forecasts for the debt-to-GDP ratio. I find that the expected economic recovery will lead to a decrease in Germany’s indebtedness in the medium-term given that policy makers stick to the fiscal policy rules.
House of Finance
(2008)
This paper addresses the question whether close borrower-lender relationships, so called hausbank-relationships, facilitate the funding and beneficial development of SME. To this end, we derive a model which relates a firm's growth rate to its need for external funds and subsequently compute the firms that exceed their predicted growth rate. We then use this measure to identify specific characteristics that are associated with long- and short-term financing of firm growth, in particular the influence of relationship lending. We find that close ties with savings banks predict firms' access to external finance to fund growth. Moreover, the long-term liabilities of firms with hausbank-relationships almost double those with multiple relationships while the overall leverage is about the same. In turn, we find an strong empirical relationship between the provision of long-term funds and firm growth. Keywords: small business lending, credit access, public banks JEL Classifications: G21, D21
The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that in particular financially constrained firms lease a higher share of their assets to mitigate problems of asymmetric information. The assumptions are tested under a GMM framework which simultaneously controls for endogeneity problems and firms' fixed effects. We find that the share of total annual lease expenses attributable to either finance or operating leases is considerably higher for smaller firms with higher average interest rates and high-growth firms - those likely to face higher agency-cost premiums on marginal financing. Furthermore, our results confirm the substitution of leasing and debt financing for lessee firms. However, we find no evidence that firms use leasing as an instrument to reduce their tax burdens. Keywords: Leasing, financial constraints, asymmetric information, GMM JEL Classifications: D23, D92, C23
Das House of Finance hat im Sommer 2008 sein Gebäude bezogen. Unter seinem Dach führt das House of Finance drei Abteilungen aus den Fachbereichen Rechtswissenschaft und Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Goethe-Universität sowie sechs rechtlich selbstständige Institute – darunter auch das E-Finance Lab - zusammen. Neben den traditionellen Aufgaben in der Forschung und Lehre verfolgt das House of Finance das Vorhaben, die Ergebnisse der Forschung für die Praxis und auch für den Finanzplatz Deutschland nutzbar zu machen. Als ein Element dieses Wissenstransfers veröffentlicht das House of Finance die „Newsletter“. Der „Newsletter“ gibt Auskunft über - drei aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse, - die Entwicklungen in der Executive Education, - die neuesten Veröffentlichungen der im House of Finance ansässigen Wissenschaftler, - den Veranstaltungskalender. Der Newsletter umfasst jeweils 16 Seiten und erscheint vierteljährlich in englischer Sprache.