Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
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Mitigating climate change necessitates global cooperation, yet global data on individuals’ willingness to act remain scarce. In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance, wherein individuals around the globe systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act. This perception gap, combined with individuals showing conditionally cooperative behaviour, poses challenges to further climate action. Therefore, raising awareness about the broad global support for climate action becomes critically important in promoting a unified response to climate change.
This paper studies discrete time finite horizon life-cycle models with arbitrary discount functions and iso-elastic per period power utility with concavity parameter θ. We distinguish between the savings behavior of a sophisticated versus a naive agent. Although both agent types have identical preferences, they solve different utility maximization problems whenever the model is dynamically inconsistent. Pollak (1968) shows that the savings behavior of both agent types is nevertheless identical for logarithmic utility (θ = 1). We generalize this result by showing that the sophisticated agent saves in every period a greater fraction of her wealth than the naive agent if and only if θ ≥ 1. While this result goes through for model extensions that preserve linearity of the consumption policy function, it breaks down for non-linear model extensions.
Homeownership rates differ widely across European countries. We document that part of this variation is driven by differences in the fraction of adults co-residing with their parents. Comparing Germany and Italy, we show that in contrast to homeownership rates per household, homeownership rates per individual are very similar during the first part of the life cycle. To understand these patterns, we build an overlapping-generations model where individuals face uninsurable income risk and make consumption-saving and housing tenure decisions. We embed an explicit intergenerational link between children and parents to capture the three-way trade-off between owning, renting, and co-residing. Calibrating the model to Germany we explore the role of income profiles, housing policies, and the taste for independence and show that a combination of these factors goes a long way in explaining the differential life-cycle patterns of living arrangements between the two countries.
When estimating misspecified linear factor models for the cross-section of expected returns using GMM, the explanatory power of these models can be spuriously high when the estimated factor means are allowed to deviate substantially from the sample averages. In fact, by shifting the weights on the moment conditions, any level of cross-sectional fit can be attained. The mathematically correct global minimum of the GMM objective function can be obtained at a parameter vector that is far from the true parameters of the data-generating process. This property is not restricted to small samples, but rather holds in population. It is a feature of the GMM estimation design and applies to both strong and weak factors, as well as to all types of test assets.
We study the many implications of the Eurosystem collateral framework for corporate bonds. Using data on the evolving collateral eligibility list, we identify the first inclusion dates of bonds and issuers and use these events to find that the increased supply and demand for pledgeable collateral following eligibility (a) increases activity in the corporate securities lending market, (b) lowers eligible bond yields, and (c) affects bond liquidity. Thus, corporate bond lending relaxes the constraint of limited collateral supply and thereby improves market functioning.
This paper empirically analyses whether post-global financial crisis regulatory reforms have created appropriate incentives to voluntarily centrally clear over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts. We use confidential European trade repository data on single-name sovereign credit default swap (CDS) transactions and show that both seller and buyer manage counterparty exposures and capital costs, strategically choosing to clear when the counterparty is riskier. The clearing incentives seem particularly responsive to seller credit risk, which is in line with the notion that counterparty credit risk (CCR) is asymmetric in CDS contracts. The riskiness of the underlying reference entity also impacts the decision to clear as it affects both CCR capital charges for OTC contracts and central counterparty clearing house (CCP) margins for cleared contracts. Lastly, we find evidence that when a transaction helps netting positions with the CCP and hence lower margins, the likelihood of clearing is higher.
Why does the schooling gap close while the wage gap persists across country income comparisons?
(2023)
The schooling gap diminishes because the services sector becomes more pronounced for high-income countries, and the paid hours gap closes. Although gender wage inequality persists across country income groups, differences in schooling years between females and males diminish. We assemble a novel dataset, calibrate a general equilibrium, multi-sector, -gender, and -production technology model, and show that gender-specific sectoral comparative advantages explain the paid hours and schooling gap decline from low- to high-income economies even when the wage gap persists. Additionally, our counterfactual analyses indicate that consumption subsistence and production share heterogeneity across both income groups and genders are essential to explain the co-decline of the schooling and paid hours gaps. Our results highlight effective mechanisms for policies aiming to reduce gender inequality in schooling and suggest that the schooling gap decline and the de-invisibilization of female paid work observed in high-income countries are linked by structural sector movements instead of wage inequality reductions.
We study the role mutual funds play in the recovery from fast intraday crashes based on data from the National Stock Exchange of India for a single large stock. During normal times, trading activity and liquidity provision by mutual funds is negligible compared to other traders at around 4% of overall activity. Nevertheless, for the two intraday market-wide crashes in our sample, price recovery took place only after mutual funds moved in. Market stability may require the presence of well-capitalized standby liquidity providers for recovery from fast crashes.
The recent COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented worldwide event to study the influence of related news on the financial markets, especially during the early stage of the pandemic when information on the new threat came rapidly and was complex for investors to process. In this paper, we investigate whether the flow of news on COVID-19 had an impact on forming market expectations. We analyze 203,886 online articles dealing with COVID-19 and published on three news platforms (MarketWatch.com, NYTimes.com, and Reuters.com) in the period from January to June 2020. Using machine learning techniques, we extract the news sentiment through a financial market-adapted BERT model that enables recognizing the context of each word in a given item. Our results show that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between sentiment scores and S&P 500 market. Furthermore, we provide evidence that sentiment components and news categories on NYTimes.com were differently related to market returns.
The meme stock phenomenon has yet to be explored. In this note, we provide evidence that these stocks display common stylized facts for the dynamics of price, trading volume, and social media activity. Using a regime-switching cointegration model, we identify the meme stock “mementum” which exhibits a different characterization compared to other stocks with high volumes of activity (persistent and not) on social media. Finally, we show that mementum is significant and positively related to the stock’s returns. Understanding these properties helps investors and market authorities in their decisions.
This paper uses historical monthly temperature level data for a panel of 114 countries to identify the effects of within year temperature level variability on productivity growth in five different macro regions, i.e., (1) Africa, (2) Asia, (3) Europe, (4) North America and (5) South America. We find two primary results. First, higher intra-annual temperature variability reduces (increases) productivity in Europe and North America (Asia). Second, higher intra-annual temperature variability has no significant effects on productivity in Africa and South America. Additional empirical tests indicate also the following: (1) rising intra-annual temperature variability reduces productivity (even thought less significantly)in both tropical and non-tropical regions, (2) inter-annual temperature variability reduces (increases) productivity in North America (Europe) and (3) winter and summer inter-annual temperature variability generates a drop in productivity in both Europe and North America. Taken together, these findings indicate that temperature variability shocks tend to have stronger adverse economic effects among richer economies. In a production economy featuring long-run productivity and temperature volatility shocks, we quantify these negative impacts and find welfare losses of 2.9% (1%) in Europe (North America).
We analyze the ESG rating criteria used by prominent agencies and show that there is a lack of a commonality in the definition of ESG (i) characteristics, (ii) attributes and (iii) standards in defining E, S and G components. We provide evidence that heterogeneity in rating criteria can lead agencies to have opposite opinions on the same evaluated companies and that agreement across those providers is substantially low. Those alternative definitions of ESG also affect sustainable investments leading to the identification of different investment universes and consequently to the creation of different benchmarks. This implies that in the asset management industry it is extremely difficult to measure the ability of a fund manager if financial performances are strongly conditioned by the chosen ESG benchmark. Finally, we find that the disagreement in the scores provided by the rating agencies disperses the effect of preferences of ESG investors on asset prices, to the point that even when there is agreement, it has no impact on financial performances.
Si bien el discurso sobre los derechos humanos se volvió fundamental para desafiar la austeridad en el período que siguió a la Gran Crisis Financiera desde una perspectiva histórica, el que los derechos humanos desempeñen este papel es más la excepción que la regla. El discurso en materia de derechos humanos en el contexto de la austeridad inducida por la deuda soberana ha variado mucho con el tiempo. Lejos de mostrar progreso, su historia revela los cambios del paradigma del derecho de los derechos humanos. Las páginas que siguen hacen foco en uno de esos cambios, ocurrido en la transición entre las décadas de los setenta y ochenta. En la década de los setenta, los Estados recientemente independizados invocaban los derechos humanos en especial para afirmar su soberanía y alejar la interferencia internacional. El paradigma estructural sobre derechos humanos desapareció abruptamente de los debates sobre austeridad en la década de los ochenta, cuando la crisis de deuda soberana golpeó al Sur Global y creó la necesidad de asistencias multilaterales para obtener liquidez. Frente a la presión de reconsiderar el impacto social de los programas de ajuste estructural que promovía, el Fondo Monetario Internacional desplazó los términos del debate y en lugar de hablar de “necesidades humanas”, un término relacionado con los derechos humanos, pasó a hablar de “capital humano”. En consecuencia, en el momento en que los derechos humanos adquirían el estatus de “última utopía”, dejaron de tener relevancia para la austeridad. Por lo tanto, que el discurso sobre los derechos humanos promueva o no los objetivos sociales dependerá del contexto y del momento histórico. El artículo culmina con una propuesta de paradigma político del derecho de los derechos humanos que refleja estas perspectivas.
Inflation ist ein Konstrukt. Sie wird von unterschiedlichen Akteur*innen unterschiedlich wahrgenommen. Zum Teil passiert dies, weil Warenkörbe differieren, zum Teil weil Erwartungen unterschiedlich gebildet werden. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Heterogenität der Infl ation und ihrer Wahrnehmung und was dies für die Zielgröße der Zentralbankpolitik bedeutet.
In a political and economic perspective, the recent ECJ judgment on the OMT program is not more than a footnote, a short sideshow in a seemingly never-ending sequel of another dimension. Legally, however, I find the case quite remarkable. Unlike its Advocate General, the ECJ did not yield to the temptation to respond in kind to the FCC’s provocations. In particular, it avoids the issue of domestic vs. European constitutional identity that juxtaposed the FCC and the Advocate General. Instead, the ECJ has shown political responsibility and legal foresight in framing what could become a masterpiece of truly cooperative, other-regarding constitutional pluralism.
Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäubles Behauptung, Griechenland könne wegen Art. 125 AEUV nur außerhalb der Eurozone seine Schulden gegenüber anderen Euro-Staaten und EFSF bzw. ESM restrukturieren, beruht auf einem Denkfehler, wenn nicht gar auf einem Taschenspielertrick. Die Pringle-Rechtsprechung des EuGH zeigt: Das Europarecht schaufelt sich nicht sein eigenes Grab. Man muss es nicht erst umgehen, um die Ziele der Union wahrhaft zu verwirklichen.
Wallonien lässt die westliche Welt zappeln – und wird dafür je nach politischem Standpunkt des Betrachters als einzig aufrechtes gallisches Dorf besungen oder als eigennützige Erpresserbande geschmäht. Stutzig macht jedoch die prompte Reaktion, man hätte CETA besser doch nicht als "gemischtes Abkommen" einstufen sollen, sondern als Abkommen zwischen der EU und Kanada ohne direkte Beteiligung der Mitgliedstaaten. Diese Reaktion zeugt von Demokratieverachtung.
Le gouvernement de soi et des autres: Zu Auftrittsverboten für türkische Regierungsmitglieder
(2017)
Die hochproblematische Verfassungsreform in der Türkei führt innerhalb der EU zu ungewöhnlichen Allianzen: In seltener Einmütigkeit wird länderübergreifend von ganz rechts bis weit ins linke politische Spektrum hinein ein Auftrittsverbot für türkische Politiker gefordert. Das gefühlt häufigste Argument bemüht dabei die Souveränität: Man möchte die Kampagne der türkischen Regierung für ihre die Gewaltenteilung gefährdende Verfassungsreform nicht auch noch im eigenen Land haben. In einer pluralistischen Gesellschaft weckt solche Einmütigkeit Zweifel, die sich bei näherem Hinschauen verfestigen – und zwar in juristischer wie politischer Hinsicht.
It seems that the BVerfG has learned a lesson. Yesterday’s referral about the the European Central Bank’s policy of Quantitative Easing (QE) sets a completely different tone. It reads like a modest and balanced plea for judicial dialogue, rather than an indictment. Fifty years after the original event, a new Summer of Love seems to thrive between the highest judicial bodies. It shows no traces of the aplomb with which Karlsruhe presented its stance to Luxembourg three years ago.
Nicht nur die Geräuschkulisse des Brexits absorbierte ein Stück weit die Aufmerksamkeit für das Urteil des Europäischen Gerichtshofs (EuGH) zur Zulässigkeit des Anleihenkaufprogramms der EZB. Denn immerhin entschied Luxemburg damit über eine der nach wie vor seltenen Vorlagen aus Karlsruhe. Dazu mag auch beigetragen haben, dass seit der Stellungnahme des Generalanwalts Wathelet nicht mehr damit gerechnet wurde, dass der EuGH der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) einen sprichwörtlichen Strich durch die Rechnung machen würde. Dennoch ist das Urteil aus einigen Gründen bemerkenswert.