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Cross-predictability denotes the fact that some assets can predict other assets' returns. I propose a novel performance-based measure that disentangles the economic value of cross-predictability into two components: the predictive power of one asset's signal for other assets' returns (cross-predictive signals) and the amount of an asset's return explained by other assets' signals (cross-predicted returns). Empirically, the latter component dominates the former in the overall cross-prediction effects. In the crosssection, cross-predictability gravitates towards small firms that are strongly mispriced and difficult to arbitrage, while it becomes more difficult to cross-predict returns when market capitalization and book-to-market ratio rise.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between firm leverage and risktaking. We embed the traditional agency problem of asset substitution within a multi-period model, revealing a U-shaped relationship between leverage and risktaking, evident in data from both the U.S. and Europe. Firms with medium leverage avoid risk to preserve the option of issuing safe debt in the future. This option is valuable because safe debt does not incur the expected cost of bankruptcy, anticipated by debt-holders due to future risk-taking incentives. Our model offers new insights on the interaction between companies' debt financing and their risk profiles.
If service providers can identify reasons users are in favor of or against a service, they have insightful information that can help them understand user behavior and what they need to do to change such behavior. This article argues that the novel text-mining technique referred to as information-seeking argument mining (IS-AM) can identify these reasons. The empirical study applies IS-AM to news articles and reviews about electric scooter-sharing systems (i.e., a service enabling the short-term rentals of electric motorized scooters). Its results point to IS-AM as a promising technique to improve service; the data enable the authors to identify 40 reasons to use or not use electric scooter-sharing systems, as well as their importance to users. Furthermore, the results show that news articles are better data sources than reviews because they are longer and contain more arguments and, thus, reasons.
Zinsänderungsrisiken und langfristige Zinsbindung vor dem Hintergrund der hessischen Zinsswaps
(2019)
Johannes Kasinger, Lukas Nöh und Alfons Weichenrieder nehmen die derzeitige Niedrigzinsphase und die Debatte um den Einsatz von Zinsswaps in Hessen zum Anlass, um die Fristigkeitsstruktur der Staatsschulden sowie den Einsatz von langfristigen Zinsswaps zu erörtern. Die Autoren betonen, dass im Gegensatz zu einem privaten Bauherrn der Staat nicht für sich wirtschaftet, sondern als Sachwalter der Steuerzahler agieren sollte. Den Zinserhöhungsrisiken des Staates stehen Zinserhöhungschancen der Steuerzahler in deren Funktion als Kreditgeber gegenüber. Letzteres schwächt das Argument für langfristige Verschuldung, sei es durch die Emission langfristiger Anleihen oder durch den Einsatz von Finanzderivaten. Grundsätzlich kann eine Glättung der Zinslast allerdings dabei helfen, die für den Schuldendienst notwendigen Steuern zu glätten und die Zusatzlast der Besteuerung zu mindern.
Libra — a global virtual currency project initiated by Facebook — has been the subject of many controversial discussions since its announcement in June 2019. This paper provides a differentiated view on Libra, recognising that different development scenarios of Libra are conceivable. Libra could serve purely as an alternative payment system in combination with a dedicated payment token, the Libra coin. Alternatively, the Libra project could develop into a broader financial infrastructure for advanced financial services such as savings and loan products operating on the Libra Blockchain. Based on a comparison of the Libra architecture with other cryptocurrencies, the opportunities and challenges for the development of the respective Libra ecosystems are investigated from a commercial, regulatory and monetary policy perspective.
The importance of agile methods has increased in recent years, not only to manage IT projects but also to establish flexible and adaptive organisational structures, which are essential to deal with disruptive changes and build successful digital business strategies. This paper takes an industry-specific perspective by analysing the dissemination, objectives and relative popularity of agile frameworks in the German banking sector. The data provides insights into expectations and experiences associated with agile methods and indicates possible implementation hurdles and success factors. Our research provides the first comprehensive analysis of agile methods in the German banking sector. The comparison with a selected number of fintechs has revealed some differences between banks and fintechs. We found that almost all banks and fintechs apply agile methods in IT projects. However, fintechs have relatively more experience with agile methods than banks and use them more intensively. Scrum is the most relevant framework used in practice. Scaled agile frameworks are so far negligible in the German banking sector. Acceleration of projects is apparently the most important objective of deploying agile methods. In addition, agile methods can contribute to cost savings and lead to improved quality and innovation performance, though for banks it is evidently more challenging to reach their respective targets than for fintechs. Overall our findings suggest that German banks are still in a maturing process of becoming more agile and that there is room for an accelerated adoption of agile methods in general and scaled agile frameworks in particular.
The financial sector plays an important role in financing the green transformation. Various regulatory initiatives in the EU aim to improve transparency in relation to the sustainability of financial products and the sustainability of economic activities of non-financial and financial undertakings. For credit institutions, the Green Asset Ratio (GAR) has been established by the European regulatory authorities as a key performance indicator (KPI) for measuring the proportion of Taxonomy-aligned on-balance-sheet exposure in relation to the total assets. The breakdown of the total GAR by type of counterparty, environmental objective and type of asset provides in-depth information about the sustainability profile of a credit institution. This information, which has not been available to date, may also initiate discussions between management and shareholders or other stakeholders regarding the future sustainability strategy of credit institutions. This paper provides an overview of the regulatory background and the method of calculating the GAR along different dimensions. Finally, the potential benefits and limitations of the GAR are discussed.
Advances in distributed ledger technology are leading to a growing decentralisation of financial services (“decentralised finance”) that can be offered largely without intermediation by financial institutions. An important driver for this development is the ongoing tokenisation of assets, payments and rights, which enables the digital encryption of “crypto assets” on distributed ledgers. This article elaborates the foundations and fields of application of decentralised financial services with crypto assets that could challenge the established business models of financial institutions. This trend not only affects payment systems based on controversial crypto currencies such as Bitcoin, but also exchange platforms, capital markets solutions and corporate financing. A rapidly growing ecosystem of start-ups, tech companies and financial institutions is emerging, yet this ecosystem lacks a consistent regulatory framework. The European initiative MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets) points in the right direction but needs to be adopted soon to ensure the future competitiveness of the European financial sector.
The financial sector plays an important role in supporting the green transformation of the European economy. A critical assessment of the current regulatory framework for sustainable finance in Europe leads to ambiguous results. Although the level of transparency on environmental, social and governance aspects of financial products has improved significantly, it is questionable whether the complex, mainly disclosure-oriented architecture is sufficient to mobilise more private capital into sustainable investments. It should be discussed whether a minimum taxonomy ratio or Green Asset Ratio has to be fulfilled to market a financial product as “green”. Furthermore, because of the high complexity of the regulation, it could be helpful for private investors to establish a simplified green rating, based on the taxonomy ratio, to facilitate the selection of green financial products.
With a notional amount outstanding of more than USD 500 trillion, the market for OTC derivatives is of vital importance for global financial stability. A growing proportion of these contracts are cleared via central counterparties (CCPs), which means that CCPs are gaining in importance as critical financial market infrastructures. At the same time, there is growing concern that a new „too big to fail" problem could arise, as the CCP industry is highly concentrated due to economies of scale. From a European perspective, it should be noted that the clearing of euro-denominated OTC derivatives mainly takes place in London, hence outside the EU in the foreseeable future. For some time there has been a controversial discussion as to whether this can remain the case post Brexit. CCPs, which clear a significant proportion of euro OTC derivatives and are systemically relevant from an EU perspective, should be subject to direct supervision by EU authorities and should be established in the EU. This would represent an important building block for a future Capital Markets Union in Europe, as regulatory or supervisory arbitrage in favour of systemically important third-country CCPs could be prevented. In addition, if a systemically relevant CCP handling a considerable portion of the euro OTC derivatives business were to run into serious difficulties, this may impact ECB monetary policy. This applies both to demand for central bank money and to the transmission of monetary policy measures, which can be significantly impaired, particularly in the event that the repo market or payment systems are disrupted. It is therefore essential for the ECB to be closely involved in the supervision of CCPs. Against this background, the draft amendment of EMIR (European Market Infrastructure Regulation) presented on 13 June 2017 is a step in the right direction. In addition, there is an urgent need to introduce a recovery and resolution mechanism for CCPs in the EU to complement the existing single resolution mechanism (SRM) for banks in the eurozone. Only then can the diverse interdependencies between banks and CCPs be adequately taken into account in the recovery and resolution programmes required in a financial crisis.
The German federal government intended to alleviate the burden of increasing fuel prices by introducing a temporary reduction of energy taxes on gasoline and diesel. In order to evaluate the impact of this measure on consumer prices at the filling stations the development of procurement costs for crude oil as well as the downstream development of refinery and distribution margins have to be taken into account. It turns out that about 80 % of the tax reduction has been passed on to end consumers on and around the effective date of the tax relief. However, within the first month the impact of the tax reduction has been wiped out for diesel completely as the gross margin of the mineral oil groups have substantially improved since then. On the other hand, for gasoline (E10) at least part of the impact can still be observed as the initial margin improvement has come down in the meantime. For a detailed analysis the German antitrust authority should look into the pricing algorithms of all 14,000 filling stations in Germany.