330 Wirtschaft
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WE STUDY REDISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF INFLATION USING A RANDOMIZED INFORMATION EXPERIMENT ON BANK CLIENTS. ON AVERAGE, INDIVIDUALS ARE WELL INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT INFLATION AND ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ITS IMPACT ON WEALTH. YET, MOST INDIVIDUALS ARE NOT AWARE OF HOW INFLATION ERODES NOMINAL POSITIONS. ONCE THEY RECEIVE INFORMATION ON THIS EROSION CHANNEL, THEY UPDATE PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS ABOUT OWN NET NOMINAL POSITIONS. LEARNING ABOUT THE INFLATION-INDUCED EROSION OF NOMINAL POSITIONS CAUSALLY AFFECTS CHOICES IN HYPOTHETICAL REAL-ESTATE TRANSACTIONS AND ACTUAL CONSUMPTION. THE FINDINGS SUGGEST THAT HOUSEHOLD WEALTH MEDIATES THE SENSITIVITY OF CONSUMPTION TO INFLATION ONCE HOUSEHOLDS ARE AWARE OF THE BALANCE-SHEET EFFECTS OF INFLATION.
SAFE Update June 2023
(2023)
PURPOSE: This theoretical study seeks to understand how the development of ‘Transnational Business Feminism’ in response to the 2008 financial crisis, was implemented in 2013 through Japan’s ‘Womenomics’ program. The paper further examines how efficient this said form of neoliberal feminist economic program was in in addressing vulnerabilities in the Japanese financial system during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Finally, it looks at how the pandemic has shifted conversations around the future of gender and finance in Japan through the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) framework.
DESIGN/METHOD: Drawing on a variety of sources, this paper uses a case study research methodology as well as statistical data from a variety of sources to draw theoretical conclusions on the specific case of Japan’s economy.
RESULTS/FINDINGS: This paper reveals that the programs implemented by the Japanese government failed to address existing gender inequalities and systemic risk in the Japanese economy, and that women in Japan were hit much harder by the repercussions of the pandemic, in spite of Womenomics policies.
ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study offers insights into the effectiveness of neoliberal feminist agendas in addressing systemic financial and economic risk, in order to help optimize the potential of ESG.
Retained earnings and foreign portfolio ownership: implications for the current account debate
(2023)
In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012 to 2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5bn annually. This amounts to approximately five percent of Germany’s average official current account surplus (€226.6bn) across these years.
We find that high macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital, despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower depreciation and utilization of existing capital, which dominates the investment slowdown. Motivated by these dynamics, we develop a quantitative production-based model in which firms implement precautionary savings through reducing utilization rather than raising invest-ment. Through this novel intensive-margin mechanism, uncertainty shocks command a quarter of the equity premium in general equilibrium, while flexibility in utilization adjustments helps explain uncertainty risk exposures in the cross-section of industry returns.
We assemble a data set of more than eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index into uncertainty about sanctions against Russia, energy policy and other dimensions. We then estimate a VAR model with daily financial and macroeconomic data and identify an exogenous uncertainty shock. The increase in uncertainty has strong effects on financial markets and causes a significant decline in economic activity as well as an increase in expected inflation. We find the effects of uncertainty to be particularly strong in the first months of the war.