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Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) with four temporal scales of interest, we evaluated changes in the drought frequency using multi-model and multi-scenario simulations to identify areas where the definition issue could result in pronounced uncertainties and to what extent. We investigated the disagreement in the signs of changes between drought definitions and decomposed the variance into four main factors: drought definitions, greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, global climate models, and global water models, as well as their interactions. The results show that models were the primary sources of variance over 82% of the global land area. On the other hand, the drought definition was the dominant source of variance in the remaining 17%, especially in parts of northern high-latitudes. Our results highlight specific regions where differences in drought definitions result in a large spread among projections, including areas showing opposite signs of significant changes. At a global scale, 7% of the variance resulted independently from the definition issue, and that value increased to 44% when 1st and 2nd order interactions were considered. The quantitative results suggest that by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest, one could avoid these uncertainties in drought assessments to obtain a clearer picture of future drought change.
A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen, Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSDs) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6 months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify seven distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b=0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b=3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach that approximates the surface wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase shift elimination method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the seven prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows the constraint of shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifera that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Desmophyllum pertusum (formerly known as Lophelia pertusa). Here, we present measurements of the trace element and isotopic composition of these parasitic foraminifera, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (gas-source MS and inductively-coupled-plasma MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr / Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol−1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest D. pertusum, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilized in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of D. pertusum has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata. Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on D. pertusum, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host's carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn / Ca ratios in foraminifera that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifera, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifera is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr / Ca, Mn / Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
Evidence of hydrothermal activity is reported for the Mesozoic pre- and syn-rift successions of the western Adriatic palaeomargin of the Alpine Tethys, preserved in the Western Southalpine Domain (NW Italy). The products of hydrothermal processes are represented by vein and breccia cements, as well as dolomitization and silicification of the host rocks. In the eastern part of the study area, interpreted as part of the necking zone of the continental margin, Middle Triassic dolostones and Lower Jurassic sediments are crossed by veins and hydrofracturing breccias cemented by saddle dolomite. The precipitation of dolomite cements occurred within the stratigraphic succession close to the sediment–water interface. Despite the shallow burial depth, fluid inclusion microthermometry and clumped isotopes show that hydrothermal fluids were relatively hot (80–150°C). In the western part of the study area, interpreted as part of the hyperextended distal zone, a polyphase history of host-rock fracturing is recorded, with at least two generations of veins cemented by calcite, dolomite and quartz. Vein opening and cementation occurred at shallow burial depth around the time of deposition of the syn-rift clastic succession. Fluid inclusion microthermometry on both quartz and dolomite cements indicates a fluid temperature of 90–130°C, again pointing to hydrothermal fluids. Both in Fenera-Sostegno and Montalto Dora areas, O, C and Sr isotope values, coupled with fluid inclusion and clumped isotope data, indicate that hydrothermal fluids derived from seawater interacted with crustal rocks during hydrothermal circulation. Stratigraphic and petrographic evidence, and U–Pb dating of dolomitized clasts within syn-rift sediments, document that hydrothermal fluids circulated through sediments from the latest Triassic to the Toarcian, corresponding to the entire syn-rift evolution of the western portion of the Adriatic palaeomargin. The documented hydrothermal processes are temporally correlated with regional-scale thermal events that took place in the same time interval at deeper crustal levels.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The impact of precipitation in shallow cumulus convection on the moisture variance and third-order moments of moisture is investigated with the help of large-eddy simulations. Three idealized simulations based on the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean field experiment are analyzed: one nonprecipitating, on a smaller domain, and two precipitating cases, on a larger domain with different initial profiles of moisture. Results show that precipitation and the associated cloud organization lead to increased generation of higher-order moments (HOM) of moisture compared to the nonprecipitating case. To understand the physical mechanism and the role of individual processes in this increase, budgets of HOM of moisture are studied. Microphysics directly decreases the generation of HOM of moisture, but this effect is not dominant. The gradient production term is identified as the main source term in the HOM budgets. The influence of the gradient production term on moisture variance is further examined separately in cloud active and nonactive regions. The main contribution to the gradient production term comes from the smaller cloud active region because of the stronger moisture flux. Further analyses of the horizontal and vertical cross sections of moisture fluctuations show that the precipitation-induced downdrafts and updrafts are the main mechanism for the generation of moisture variance. The variance increase is linked to shallow dry downdraft regions with horizontal divergence in the subcloud layer, moist updrafts with horizontal convergence in the bulk cloud layer, and finally wider areas of horizontal divergence in the cloud inversion layer.
The formation of terrestrial planets was a complex process which begun in the very early stage of the Solar System in the protoplanetary disk (PPD). Chondrites are fragments of planet precursors, which have never experienced differentiation and can help to reconstruct the first processes leading to planet formation. The main components of chondrites are chondrules, calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs), metals and fine-grained material. Each of these components formed by a complex mechanism involving aggregation and/or melting. Previous research has already provided an overall view of the formation of these objects, however, there are still open questions regarding the aggregation behavior of particles, the heating mechanism(s) and the thermal history of CAIs, AOAs and chondrules. For instance, the involvement of flash-heating events and electrostatics in the aggregation and melting of these objects has been a keen topic of discussion.
The aim of this doctoral thesis was to develop and carry out an experiment to study various early Solar System processes under long-term microgravity. In the project with the acronym EXCISS (Experimental Chondrule Formation aboard the ISS), free-floating, 126(23)µm-sized Mg2SiO4 dust particles were exposed to electric fields and electric discharges.
The experimental set-up was installed inside a 10x10x15 cm3-sized container and consisted of an arc generation unit connected to the sample chamber, a camera with an optical system, a power supply unit with lithium-ion batteries and the EXCISS mainboard with a Raspberry Pi Zero and mass storage devices. The sample chamber was manufactured from quartz glass and the experiments were filmed. The complete experiment container was subsequently returned to the Goethe University and the samples were analyzed with scanning electron microscopy, electron backscatter diffraction and synchrotron micro-CT.
Video analysis has shown that particles, which were agitated by electric discharges, align in chains within the electric field with their longest axis parallel to the electric field lines. Consequently, electric fields could have influenced the inner structure and porosity of particle aggregates in the PPD.
The discharge experiments produced fused aggregates and individual melt spherules.
The fused aggregates share many morphological characteristics with natural fluffy-type CAIs and some igneous CAIs found in chondrites. Consequently, CAIs could have formed by the aggregation of particles with various degrees of melting. Further, a small amount of melting could have supplied the required stability for such fractal structures to have survived transportation and aggregation to, and subsequent compaction within, developing planetesimals.
Some initial particles were completely melted by the arc discharges and formed melt spherules. The newly formed olivines crystallized with a preferred orientation of the [010] axis perpendicular to the surface of the spherule. Similar preferred orientations have been found in natural chondrules. However, the microstructure differs from the results of previous experiments on Earth, which show, for example, crystal settling on one side of the sample because of the influence of gravity. Furthermore, the melt spherules show evidence for an interaction of the melt with the surrounding hot gas. Therefore, microgravity experiments with more advanced experimental parameters bear great potential for future chondrule formation experiments.
We combined biostratigraphical analyses, archaeological surveys, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models to provide new insights into the relative sea-level evolution in the northeastern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this area, characterized by a very complex tectonic pattern, we produced a new typology of sea-level index point, based on the foraminiferal associations found in transgressive marine facies. Our results agree with the sea-level history previously produced in this region, therefore confirming the validity of this new type of index point. The expanded dataset presented in this paper further demonstrates a continuous Holocene RSL rise in this portion of the Aegean Sea. Comparing the new RSL record with the available geophysical predictions of sea-level evolution indicates that the crustal subsidence of the Samothraki Plateau and the North Aegean Trough played a major role in controlling millennial-scale sea-level evolution in the area. This major subsidence rate needs to be taken into account in the preparation of local future scenarios of sea-level rise in the coming decades.