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Mit dem Klimawandel könnte das Grundwasser künftig weltweit in vielen Regionen knapp werden. Das zeigt eine große internationale Studie, die vom Doktoranden Robert Reinecke und der Geographin Prof. Petra Döll initiiert wurde. Vielerorts könnte das zu Wassermangel führen oder einen bestehenden Wassermangel verschärfen. Gleichzeitig werden andere Regionen unter steigenden Grundwasserständen zu leiden haben. Ackerflächen könnten durch Vernässung verloren gehen.
Schon zu früheren Zeiten in der Erdgeschichte gab es Warmzeiten durch starke Treibhauseffekte, mit tropischen Temperaturen in weiten Teilen der Erde, hohem Meeresspiegel und massivem Artensterben. Das belegen Daten aus der Paläoklimatologie. Wenn man heutige Klimamodelle auf solche geologischen Warmzeiten anwendet, kann man sie testen und verbessern. So verhilft die Paläoklimatologie zu einem präziseren Blick in unsere Klimazukunft.
Forschung Frankfurt : das Wissenschaftsmagazin der Goethe-Universität. 2020, Nr. 2 ; Klimakrise
(2020)
Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man‐made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low‐income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
Die Bewertung der Nitrataustragsgefährdung (NAG) landwirtschaftlich genutzter Flächen in Wasserschutzgebieten (WSG) erfolgte bislang auf Basis bodenkundlicher Kartierungen und wurde seit 1996 nach einem im Staatsanzeiger für das Land Hessen veröffentlichten Merkblatt des ehemaligen Hessischen Landesamtes für Bodenforschung im Rahmen der Muster-Wasserschutzgebietsverordnung geregelt (HLfB 1996, HMUJFG 1996). Infolge der Verfügbarkeit hochauflösender Bodendaten in Form der „Bodenflächendaten 1: 5.000, landwirtschaftliche Nutzfläche“ (BFD5L) wird die Ermittlung der Nitrataustragsgefährdung landwirtschaftlich genutzter Flächen neu geregelt. Die BFD5L liefert Auswertungen der Bodenschätzungsdaten zur Feldkapazität des Wurzelraums sowie weiterer relevanter Parameter, die zur Bewertung der Nitrataustragsgefährdung herangezogen werden können.
Um die Eignung der BFD5L-Daten zur Ermittlung der Nitrataustragsgefährdung zu überprüfen, wurden in den Jahren 2009 bis 2012 bodenkundliche Vergleichskartierungen im Rahmen eines Pilotvorhabens im Wasserschutzgebiet Eschollbrücken/Pfungstadt in Südhessen, im Wassereinzugsgebiet der Quelle Meineringhausen bei Korbach, im Wasserschutzgebiet des Tiefbrunnens Spieß der Gemeinde Bad Emstal sowie im WSG Quelle Ohmes der Stadt Kirtorf durchgeführt. Ziel war es, die Umsetzungsmöglichkeiten bei der Nutzung der BFD5LDaten in organisatorischer und technischer Hinsicht zu erproben und das bisherige Verfahren zu überarbeiten (PETER & MILLER 2009, PETER & MILLER 2010a und 2010b, PETER & MILLER 2012).
Die Ergebnisse der Vergleichskartierungen zeigen, dass sich die Daten der BFD5L grundsätzlich für die Ermittlung der Nitrataustragsgefährdung in Wasserschutzgebieten eignen. Lediglich für Flächen, für die nach den bislang im System BFD5L enthaltenen Methoden keine Kennwerte abgeleitet werden können sowie für Sonderstandorte, muss die Nitrataustragsgefährdung durch bodenkundliche Geländearbeiten ermittelt werden.
In November 2016, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected at the Ceboruco Volcano in cooperation with the Centro de Sismología y Volcanología de Occidente (SisVoc, Universidad de Guadalajara, Mexico). The Ceboruco is a 2280 m high stratovolcano, located in Nayarit State, Mexico. It is placed in the central part of the Tepic-Zacoalco Rift (TZR), which constitutes the north-western end of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Together with Chapala and Colima (in the Jalisco Block), they form the triple rift system developed as a consequence of the ongoing subduction of the Rivera and Cocos oceanic plates beneath the North American continental crust. Although its last eruption occurred in 1870, it is the most active volcano in the area, showing volcanic-earthquake activity together with ongoing vapor emissions. The survey was part of a geothermal project (CeMIEGeo-P24) and focused on the determination of electrical conductivity properties to characterize the deep structure and the geothermal potential of the Volcano. Frequency dependent magnetotelluric response functions were calculated from 25 broadband MT stations, which covered an area of 10 x 10 km2 including its crater, calderas and foreland. The results were interpreted using anisotropic 3-D forward modelling and isotropic 3-D inversion approaches, considering strong topographical effects. The final resistivity model implies a highly conductive layer, reaching from near-surface to approximately 2 km depth, which might be related to a hydrothermal system. Here, mineralized fluids and clay minerals can cause high conductivities around 1 S/m. For longer periods, the principal axes of the MT response tensors (phase tensor, apparent resistivity tensor) are in good agreement with the strike direction of the underlying rift system. However, they are not rendered by the isotropic inversion. Thus the data suggest an anisotropic electrical conductivity at greater depth with its principal axis determined by the response tensors.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high‐resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant‐physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large‐scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.
Precipitation extremes with devastating socioeconomic consequences within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are expected to become more frequent in the near future. The complexity in SAMS behavior, however, poses severe challenges for reliable future projections. Thus, robust paleomonsoon records are needed to constrain the high spatiotemporal variability in the response of SAMS rainfall to different climatic drivers. This study uses Ti/Ca ratios from X‐ray fluorescence scanning of a sediment core retrieved off eastern Brazilian to trace precipitation changes over the past 322 Kyr. The results indicate that despite the spatiotemporal complexity of the SAMS, insolation forcing is the primary pacemaker of variations in the monsoonal system. Additional modulation by atmospheric pCO2 suggests that SAMS intensity over eastern Brazil will be suppressed by rising CO2 emissions in the future. Lastly, our record reveals an unprecedented strong and persistent wet period during Marine Isotope Stage 6 driven by anomalously strong trade winds.