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Local climate change risk assessments (LCCRAs) are best supported by a quantitative integration of physical hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities that includes the characterization of uncertainties. We propose to use Bayesian Networks (BNs) for this task and show how to integrate freely-available output of multiple global hydrological models (GHMs) into BNs, in order to probabilistically assess risks for water supply. Projected relative changes in hydrological variables computed by three GHMs driven by the output of four global climate models were processed using MATLAB, taking into account local information on water availability and use. A roadmap to set up BNs and apply probability distributions of risk levels under historic and future climate and water use was co-developed with experts from the Maghreb (Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco) who positively evaluated the BN application for LCCRAs. We conclude that the presented approach is suitable for application in the many LCCRAs necessary for successful adaptation to climate change world-wide.
At high pressures, autoionization – along with polymerization and metallization – is one of the responses of simple molecular systems to a rise in electron density. Nitrosonium nitrate (NO+NO3−), known for this property, has attracted a large interest in recent decades and was reported to be synthesized at high pressure and high temperature from a variety of nitrogen–oxygen precursors, such as N2O4, N2O and N2–O2 mixtures. However, its structure has not been determined unambiguously. Here, we present the first structure solution and refinement for nitrosonium nitrate on the basis of single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 7.0 and 37.0 GPa. The structure model (P21/m space group) contains the triple-bonded NO+ cation and the NO3− sp2-trigonal planar anion. Remarkably, crystal-chemical considerations and accompanying density-functional-theory calculations show that the oxygen atom of the NO+ unit is positively charged – a rare occurrence when in the presence of a less-electronegative element.
An update of the two-energy turbulence scheme is presented, the 2TE + APDF scheme. The original version of the two-energy scheme is able to successfully model shallow convection without the need of an additional parameterization for non-local fluxes. However, the performance of the two-energy scheme is worse in stratocumulus cases, where it tends to overestimate the erosion of the stable layers. We have identified the causes: the non-local stability parameter does not consider local stratification, the scheme lacks an internal parameter that could distinguish between a shallow convection regime and a stratocumulus regime, and it uses an inflexible turbulence length scale formulation. To alleviate this problem, we propose several modifications: an update of the stability parameter, a modified computation of the turbulence length scale, and the introduction of the entropy potential temperature to distinguish between a shallow convection and a stratocumulus regime. In addition, the two-energy scheme is coupled to a simplified assumed probability density function method in order to achieve a more universal representation of the cloudy regimes. The updated turbulence scheme is evaluated for several idealized cases and one selected real case in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) modeling framework. The results show that the updated scheme corrects the overmixing problem in the stratocumulus cases. The performance of the updated scheme is comparable to the operational setup, and can be thus used instead of the operational turbulence and shallow convection scheme in ICON. Additionally, the updated scheme improves the coupling with dynamics, which is beneficial for the modeling of coherent flow structures in the atmospheric boundary layer.
The accessories perovskite, pyrochlore, zirconolite, calzirtite and melanite from carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites from the Kaiserstuhl are variously suited for the in situ determination of their U–Pb ages and Sr, Nd- and Hf-isotope ratios by LA-ICP-MS. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios may be determined precisely in all five phases, the 176Hf/177Hf ratios only in calzirtite and the 87Sr/86Sr ratios in perovskites and pyrochlores. The carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites belong to one of the three magmatic groups that Schleicher et al. (1990) distinguished in the Kaiserstuhl on the basis of their Sr, Nd and Pb isotope ratios. Tephrites, phonolites and essexites (nepheline monzogabbros) form the second and limburgites (nepheline basanites) and olivine nephelinites the third. Our 87Sr/86Sr isotope data from the accessories overlap with the carbonatite and olivine nephelinite fields defined by Schleicher et al. (1990) but exhibit a much narrower range. These and the εNd and εHf values plot along the mantle array in the field of oceanic island basalts relatively close to mid-ocean ridge basalts. Previously reported K–Ar, Ar–Ar and fission track ages for the Kaiserstuhl lie between 16.2 and 17.8 Ma. They stem entirely from the geologically older tephrites, phonolites and essexites. No ages existed so far for the geologically younger carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites except for one apatite fission track age (15.8 Ma). We obtained precise U–Pb ages for zirconolites and calzirtites of 15.66, respectively 15.5 Ma (± 0.1 2σ) and for pyrochlores of 15.35 ± 0.24 Ma. Only the perovskites from the Badberg soevite yielded a U–P concordia age of 14.56 ± 0.86 Ma while the perovskites from bergalites (haüyne melilitites) only gave 206Pb/238U and 208Pb/232Th ages of 15.26 ± 0.21, respectively, 15.28 ± 0.48 Ma. The main Kaiserstuhl rock types were emplaced over a time span of 1.6 Ma almost 1 million years before the carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites. These were emplaced within only 0.32 Ma.
Living on the edge: environmental variability of a shallow late Holocene cold-water coral mound
(2022)
Similar to their tropical counterparts, cold-water corals (CWCs) are able to build large three-dimensional reef structures. These unique ecosystems are at risk due to ongoing climate change. In particular, ocean warming, ocean acidification and changes in the hydrological cycle may jeopardize the existence of CWCs. In order to predict how CWCs and their reefs or mounds will develop in the near future one important strategy is to study past fossil CWC mounds and especially shallow CWC ecosystems as they experience a greater environmental variability compared to other deep-water CWC ecosystems. We present results from a CWC mound off southern Norway. A sediment core drilled from this relatively shallow (~ 100 m) CWC mound exposes in full detail hydrographical changes during the late Holocene, which were crucial for mound build-up. We applied computed tomography, 230Th/U dating, and foraminiferal geochemical proxy reconstructions of bottom-water-temperature (Mg/Ca-based BWT), δ18O for seawater density, and the combination of both to infer salinity changes. Our results demonstrate that the CWC mound formed in the late Holocene between 4 kiloannum (ka) and 1.5 ka with an average aggradation rate of 104 cm/kiloyears (kyr), which is significantly lower than other Holocene Norwegian mounds. The reconstructed BWTMg/Ca and seawater density exhibit large variations throughout the entire period of mound formation, but are strikingly similar to modern in situ observations in the nearby Tisler Reef. We argue that BWT does not exert a primary control on CWC mound formation. Instead, strong salinity and seawater density variation throughout the entire mound sequence appears to be controlled by the interplay between the Atlantic Water (AW) inflow and the overlying, outflowing Baltic-Sea water. CWC growth and mound formation in the NE Skagerrak was supported by strong current flow, oxygen replenishment, the presence of a strong boundary layer and larval dispersal through the AW, but possibly inhibited by the influence of fresh Baltic Water during the late Holocene. Our study therefore highlights that modern shallow Norwegian CWC reefs may be particularly endangered due to changes in water-column stratification associated with increasing net precipitation caused by climate change.
We performed an experiment under long-term microgravity conditions aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to obtain information on the energetics and experimental constraints required for the formation of chondrules in the solar nebula by ’nebular lightning’. As a simplified model system, we exposed porous forsterite (Mg2 SiO4) dust particles to high-energetic arc discharges. The characterization of the samples after their return by synchrotron microtomography and scanning electron microscopy revealed that aggregates had formed, consisting of several fused Mg2SiO4 particles. The partial melting and fusing of Mg2SiO4 dust particles under microgravity conditions leads to a strong reduction of their porosity. The experimental outcomes vary strongly in their appearance from small spherical melt-droplets (∅≈90 µm) to bigger and irregularly shaped aggregates (∅≈350 µm). Our results provided new constraints with respect to energetic aspects of chondrule formation and a roadmap for future and more complex experiments on Earth and in microgravity conditions.
Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.
This work describes the development and characterization of two instruments and their data evaluation, which contributes to a better understanding of new particle formation and growth, as well as their interactions with clouds. Both instruments were characterized at the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) experiment at the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN).
Climatic and biogeographical drivers of functional diversity in the flora of the Canary Islands
(2022)
Aim: Functional traits can help us to elucidate biogeographical and ecological processes driving assemblage structure. We analysed the functional diversity of plant species of different evolutionary origins across an island archipelago, along environmental gradients and across geological age, to assess functional aspects of island biogeographical theory.
Location: Canary Islands, Spain.
Major taxa studied: Spermatophytes.
Time period: Present day.
Methods: We collected data for four traits (plant height, leaf length, flower length and fruit length) associated with resource acquisition, competitive ability, reproduction and dispersal ability of 893 endemic, non-endemic native and alien plant species (c. 43% of the Canary Island flora) from the literature. Linking these traits to species occurrences and composition across a 500 m × 500 m grid, we calculated functional diversity for endemic, non-endemic native and alien assemblages using multidimensional functional hypervolumes and related the resulting patterns to climatic (humidity) and island biogeographical (geographical isolation, topographic complexity and geological age) gradients.
Results: Trait space of endemic and non-endemic native species overlapped considerably, and alien species added novel trait combinations, expanding the overall functional space of the Canary Islands. We found that functional diversity of endemic plant assemblages was highest in geographically isolated and humid grid cells. Functional diversity of non-endemic native assemblages was highest in less isolated and humid grid cells. In contrast, functional diversity of alien assemblages was highest in arid ecosystems. Topographic complexity and geological age had only a subordinate effect on functional diversity across floristic groups.
Main conclusions: We found that endemic and non-endemic native island species possess similar traits, whereas alien species tend to expand functional space in ecosystems where they have been introduced. The spatial distribution of the functional diversity of floristic groups is very distinct across environmental gradients, indicating that species assemblages of different evolutionary origins thrive functionally in dissimilar habitats.