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This policy note summarizes our assessment of financial sanctions against Russia. We see an increase in sanctions severity starting from (1) the widely discussed SWIFT exclusions, followed by (2) blocking of correspondent banking relationships with Russian banks, including the Central Bank, alongside secondary sanctions, and (3) a full blacklisting of the ‘real’ export-import flows underlying the financial transactions. We assess option (1) as being less impactful than often believed yet sending a strong signal of EU unity; option (2) as an effective way to isolate the Russian banking system, particularly if secondary sanctions are in place, to avoid workarounds. Option (3) represents possibly the most effective way to apply economic and financial pressure, interrupting trade relationships.
Joint Institutional Frameworks in bilateral relations are circumscribed in policy scope, can lack adequate instruments for dynamic adaptation and provide limited access to decision-making processes internal to the contracting parties. Informal governance, the involvement of private actors as well as rules such as equivalence provide avenues to remedy these limits in bilateral relations in sectoral governance. Through bilateral agreements, the scope of territorially bound political authority is expanded. The formalised and institutionalised frameworks and bodies established are, however, frequently accompanied by mechanisms of informal cooperation and special rules either to cover policy fields where no contractual relation exists, to provide for flexible solutions where needed, or to involve both public and private actors that otherwise do not have access to formal decision-making bodies. This SAFE working paper conceptualises formal and informal modes of cooperation and varying actor constellations. It discusses their relevance for the case of bilateral relations between the European Union (EU) and Switzerland in sectoral governance. More specifically, it draws lessons from EU-Swiss sectoral governance of financial and electricity markets for the future relations of the EU with the United Kingdom (UK). The findings suggest that there are distinct governance arrangements across sectors, while the patterns of sectoral governance are expected to look very much alike in the United Kingdom and Switzerland in the years to come. The general takeaway is that Brexit will have repercussions for the EU’s external relations with other third countries, putting ever more emphasis on formal and rule-based approaches, while leaving a need for sector-specific cross border co-operation.
The lichenicolous fungus Sarcogyne bicolor H. Magn. was recovered as an Acarospora and is given the replacement name, Acarospora destructans. It is reported new from New Mexico. Two new species of Acarospora are described from New Mexico, Acarospora eganiana and A. worthingtoniana. A form or variety of A. glaucocarpa is treated as a species, Sarcogyne melaniza, an apparently rare taxa in Europe.
Based on recent records, 89 lichen species are reported as new to Brazil. For the genera Ancistrosporella, Jamesiella, Lambiella, Paulia, Polyblastia, Porocyphus, and Trimmatothele, it is the first time they are reported from Brazil. Many more, in total 523 species, are newly reported from individual states.
Three new species of Catillochroma are described, viz. C. danfordianum Kalb and C. mareebaense Kalb, both from Queensland, Australia, and C. phayapipakianum Kalb from Chiang Rai Province, Thailand. Eight species are transferred to Catillochroma, viz. C. alleniae, C. alligatorense, C. beechingii, C. bicoloratum, C. coralloideum, C. flavosorediatum, C. hainanese and C. yunnanense. Habit photographs of the new and some other species, mentioned in the text are provided.
New lichens from Africa
(2021)
The following species are described as new to science, mostly based on specimens collected by the first author: Candelariella flavosorediata from Réunion, Chiodecton leprarioides from Réunion, Lecanactis leprarica from Cameroon, Multisporidea nitida, which is a new species and a new, monotypic genus in the Malmideaceae from Réunion, Neoprotoparmelia fuscosorediata from Kenya, Pyrrhospora endaurantia from Kenya, and Tapellaria isidiata from Cameroon.
In a continuation of my investigation of tropical lichenized fungi, a treatment of new or otherwise interesting lichens mainly from Brazil and Venezuela is presented. A total of 34 species are reported here, most of them new discoveries for at least one the two countries or a new discovery for a state, including 11 species new to science. These are Malmidea albomarginata Kalb & Hernández from Venezuela, differing from M. granifera by the thin, white apothecial margins and a white to yellowish medulla, M. allobakeri Kalb & M. Cáceres from Brazil, differing from M. bakeri in lacking atranorin and in having smaller ascospores, M. allopapillosa Kalb from Venezuela, differing from M. papillosa in having atranorin as a major metabolite, M. atlanticoides Kalb & M. Cáceres from Brazil, differing from M. atlantica in containing atranorin and an unknown anthraquinone as major metabolites, M. hechicerae from Venezuela, differing from M. coralliformis by the K+ lemon-yellow medulla of the thallus, M. hernandeziana Kalb from Venezuela, differing from M. fellhaneroides in having a chocolate-brown hypothecium, larger apothecia and larger ascospores, M. isidiifera Kalb from Brazil and Venezuela, differing from M. piperis in having granular to coralloid isidia and atranorin as a major metabolite, M. leucopiperis Kalb from Brazil and Venezuela, differing from M. piperis in the pale-colored hypothecium, M. rhodopisoides Kalb from Brazil, differing from M. rhodopis in having granular isidia, M. subcinerea Kalb from Venezuela, differing from M. cinerea in producing no lichen substances, and M. volcaniana Kalb & Hernández from Venezuela and Brazil, differing from M. sulphureosorediata in having an alternative anthraquinone-chemistry. In addition, the new combination Stigmatochroma glaucothecum (Fée) Kalb is proposed. New reports for Venezuela include Bacidiopsora microphylla Kalb, B. silvicola (Malme) Kalb (new also for Guatemala), Buellia albula (Nyl.) Müll. Arg., Coenogonium pyrophthalmum (Mont.) Lücking, Aptroot & Sipman, Dirinaria rhodocladonica Kalb, Schumm & Elix, Malmidea badimioides (M. Cáceres & Lücking) M. Cáceres & Kalb (new also for Mexico), M. leptoloma (Müll. Arg.) Kalb & Lücking, M. nigromarginata (Malme) Lücking & Breuss, M. perplexa Kalb, M. polycampia (Tuck.) Kalb & Lücking, M. rhodopis (Tuck.) Kalb, Rivas Plata & Lumbsch, M. sulphureosorediata M. Cáceres, D. A. Mota & Aptroot, M. vinosa (Eschw.) Kalb, Rivas Plata & Lumbsch, Psilolechia lucida (Ach.) Choisy, Rhizocarpon sipmanianum Kalb & Aptroot, Sipmaniella sulfureofusca (Fée) Kalb, Stigmatochroma glaucothecum (Fée) Kalb and Vainionora aemulans (Vain.) Kalb. A collection of Pyxine caesiopruinosa (Nyl.) Imsh. from Venezuela is mentioned and its differentiation from P. albovirens (G. Mey.) Aptroot is discussed. New reports for Brazil include Malmidea atlantica (M. Cáceres & Lücking) M. Cáceres & Kalb (for Bahia state) and M. sulphureosorediata (for São Paulo state). A morphological, anatomical and chemical comparison of type material of Malmidea polycampia (Tuck.) Kalb & Lücking and M. flavopustulosa (M. Cáceres & Lücking) M. Cáceres & Kalb revealed that both names are synonym, the first one having priority. For many species revised descriptions and revised chemistry are presented based on South American material. To facilitate the identification of anthraquinones occurring in Malmidea species a table of relative Rfvalues in solvents A, B' and C is presented.
The species, Bactrospora lamprospora (Nyl.) Lendemer is treated as a synonym of B. metabola (Nyl.) Egea & Torrente. The comparission of characters of all accessible materials and type specimens confirmed that B. lamprospora is conspecific with B. metabola. The distinguishing characters of B. metabola from other species in this group are initially a Homalotropa-type ascospores becomes muriform at maturity, with up to 24–30 transverse septa and ascospore size of 48–105 × 7–14 μm.
We investigate whether the bank crisis management framework of the European banking union can effectively bar the detrimental influence of national interests in cross-border bank failures. We find that both the internal governance structure and decision making procedure of the Single Resolution Board (SRB) and the interplay between the SRB and national resolution authorities in the implementation of supranationally devised resolution schemes provide inroads that allow opposing national interests to obstruct supranational resolution. We also show that the Single Resolution Fund (SRG), even after the ratification of the reform of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the introduction of the SRF backstop facility, is inapt to overcome these frictions. We propose a full supranationalization of resolution decision making. This would allow European authorities in charge of bank crisis management to operate autonomously and achieve socially optimal outcomes beyond national borders.
There have been numerous attempts to reform the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) after the Great Recession, however the reform success varies greatly among sub-fields. Additionally, the political science research community has engaged a diverse set of theory- driven explanations, causal mechanisms, and variables to explain respective reform success. This article takes stock of reform policies in the EMU from two angles. First, it outlines distinct theoretical approaches that seek to explain success and failure of reform proposals and second, it surveys how they explain policy output and policy outcome in four policy subfields: financial stabilization, economic governance, financial solidarity, and cooperative dissolution. Finally, the article develops a set of explanatory factors from the existing literature that will be used for a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA).
With Big Data, decisions made by machine learning algorithms depend on training data generated by many individuals. In an experiment, we identify the effect of varying individual responsibility for the moral choices of an artificially intelligent algorithm. Across treatments, we manipulated the sources of training data and thus the impact of each individual’s decisions on the algorithm. Diffusing such individual pivotality for algorithmic choices increased the share of selfish decisions and weakened revealed prosocial preferences. This does not result from a change in the structure of incentives. Rather, our results show that Big Data offers an excuse for selfish behavior through lower responsibility for one’s and others’ fate.
Prospective welfare analysis - extending willingness-to-pay assessment to embrace sustainability
(2022)
In this paper we outline how a future change in consumers’ willingness-to-pay can be accounted for in a consumer welfare effects analysis in antitrust. Key to our solution is the prediction of preferences of new consumers and changing preferences of existing consumers in the future. The dimension of time is inextricably linked with that of sustainability. Taking into account the welfare of future cohorts of consumers, concerns for sustainability can therefore be integrated into the consumer welfare paradigm to a greater extent. As we argue in this paper, it is expedient to consider changes in consumers’ willingness-to-pay, in particular if society undergoes profound changes in such preferences, e.g., caused by an increase in generally available information on environmental effects of consumption, and a rising societal awareness about how consumption can have irreversible impacts on the environment. We offer suggestions on how to conceptionalize and operationalize the projection of such consumers’ changing preferences in a “prospective welfare analysis”. This increases the scope of the consumer welfare paradigm and can help to solve conceptual issues regarding the integration of sustainability into antitrust enforcement while keeping consumer surplus as a quantitative gauge.
Using granular supervisory data from Germany, we investigate the impact of unconventional monetary policies via central banks’ purchase of corporate bonds. While this policy results in a loosening of credit market conditions as intended by policy makers, we document two unintended side effects. First, banks that are more exposed to borrowers benefiting from the bond purchases now lend more to high-risk firms with no access to bond markets. Since more loan write-offs arise from these firms and banks are not compensated for this risk by higher interest rates, we document a drop in bank profitability. Second, the policy impacts the allocation of loans among industries. Affected banks reallocate loans from investment grade firms active on bond markets to mainly real estate firms without investment grade rating. Overall, our findings suggest that central banks’ quantitative easing via the corporate bond markets has the potential to contribute to both banking sector instability and real estate bubbles.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, European largest banks’ size and business models have largely remained unchallenged. Is that because of banks’ continued structural power over States? This paper challenges the view that States are sheer hostages of banks’ capacity to provide credit to the real economy – which is the conventional definition of structural power. Instead, it sheds light on the geo-economic dimension of banks’ power: key public officials conceive the position of “their own” market-based banks in global financial markets as a crucial dimension of State power. State priority towards banking thus result from political choices over what structurally matters the most for the State. Based on a discourse analysis of parliamentary debates in France, Germany and Spain between 2010 and 2020 as well as on a comparative analysis of the implementation of a special tax on banks in the early 2010s, this paper shows that State’s Finance ministries tend to prioritize geo-economic considerations over credit to firms. By contrast, Parliaments tend to prioritize investment. Power dynamics within the State thus largely shape political priorities towards banking at the domestic and international levels.
Are we in a new “Polanyian moment”? If we are, it is essential to examine how “spontaneous” and punctual expressions of discontent at the individual level may give rise to collective discourses driving social and political change. It is also important to examine whether and how the framing of these discourses may vary across political economies. This paper contributes to this endeavor with the analysis of anti-finance discourses on Twitter in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK between 2019 and 2020. This paper presents three main findings. First, the analysis shows that, more than ten years after the financial crisis, finance is still a strong catalyzer of political discontent. Second, it shows that there are important variations in the dominant framing of public anti-finance discourses on social media across European political economies. If the antagonistic “us versus them” is prominent in all the cases, the identification of who “us” and “them” are, vary significantly. Third, it shows that the presence of far-right tropes in the critique of finance varies greatly from virtually inexistent to a solid minority of statements.
In times of increased political polarization, the continuing existence of a deliberative arena where people with antagonistic views may engage with each other in non-violent ways is critical for democracy to live on. Social media are usually not conceived as such arenas. On the contrary, there has been widespread worry about their role in increasing polarization and political violence. This paper suggests a more positive impact of social media on democracy. Our analysis focuses on the subreddit “r/WallStreetBets” (r/WSB) - a finance-related forum that came under the spotlight when its users coordinated a financial attack on hedge funds during the Gamestop saga in early 2021. Based on an original method attributing partisanship scores to users, we present a network analysis of interactions between users at the opposite sides of the political spectrum on r/WSB. We then develop a content analysis of politically relevant threads in which polarized users participate. Our analyses show that r/WSB provides a rare space where users with antagonistic political leanings engage with each other, debate, and even cooperate.
In more and more situations, artificially intelligent algorithms have to model humans’ (social) preferences on whose behalf they increasingly make decisions. They can learn these preferences through the repeated observation of human behavior in social encounters. In such a context, do individuals adjust the selfishness or prosociality of their behavior when it is common knowledge that their actions produce various externalities through the training of an algorithm? In an online experiment, we let participants’ choices in dictator games train an algorithm. Thereby, they create an externality on future decision making of an intelligent system that affects future participants. We show that individuals who are aware of the consequences of their training on the pay- offs of a future generation behave more prosocially, but only when they bear the risk of being harmed themselves by future algorithmic choices. In that case, the externality of artificially intelligence training induces a significantly higher share of egalitarian decisions in the present.
Debt levels in the eurozone have reached new record highs. The member countries have tried to cushion the economic consequences of the corona pandemic with a massive increase in government spending. End of 2021 public debt in relation to GDP will approach 100% on average. There are various calls to abolish or soften the Maastricht rules of limiting sovereign debt. We see the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis in this decade if it is not possible to bring public debt down to an acceptable level. Our new fiscal rule would be suitable and appropriate for this purpose, because obviously the Maastricht criteria have failed. In contrast to the rigid 3% Maastricht-criterion, our rule is flexible and it addresses the main problem: excessively high public debt ratios. And it lowers the existing incentives for highly indebted governments to exert expansionary pressure on monetary policy. If obeyed strictly, our rule reinforces the snowball effect and reduces the excessively high debt ratios within a manageable period, even if nominal growth is weak. This is confirmed by simulations with different scenarios as well as with the hypothetical application of the new fiscal rule to eurozone economies from 2022 to 2026. Finally, we take up the recent proposal by ESM economists to increase the permissible debt ratio from 60 to 100% of GDP in the eurozone.