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Background: The adequate allocation of inpatient care resources requires assumptions about the need for health care and how this need will be met. However, in current practice, these assumptions are often based on outdated methods (e.g. Hill-Burton Formula). This study evaluated floating catchment area (FCA) methods, which have been applied as measures of spatial accessibility, focusing on their ability to predict the need for health care in the inpatient sector in Germany.
Methods: We tested three FCA methods (enhanced (E2SFCA), modified (M2SFCA) and integrated (iFCA)) for their accuracy in predicting hospital visits regarding six medical diagnoses (atrial flutter/fibrillation, heart failure, femoral fracture, gonarthrosis, stroke, and epilepsy) on national level in Germany. We further used the closest provider approach for benchmark purposes. The predicted visits were compared with the actual visits for all six diagnoses using a correlation analysis and a maximum error from the actual visits of ± 5%, ± 10% and ± 15%.
Results: The analysis of 229 million distances between hospitals and population locations revealed a high and significant correlation of predicted with actual visits for all three FCA methods across all six diagnoses up to ρ = 0.79 (p < 0.001). Overall, all FCA methods showed a substantially higher correlation with actual hospital visits compared to the closest provider approach (up to ρ = 0.51; p < 0.001). Allowing a 5% error of the absolute values, the analysis revealed up to 13.4% correctly predicted hospital visits using the FCA methods (15% error: up to 32.5% correctly predicted hospital). Finally, the potential of the FCA methods could be revealed by using the actual hospital visits as the measure of hospital attractiveness, which returned very strong correlations with the actual hospital visits up to ρ = 0.99 (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: We were able to demonstrate the impact of FCA measures regarding the prediction of hospital visits in non-emergency settings, and their superiority over commonly used methods (i.e. closest provider). However, hospital beds were inadequate as the measure of hospital attractiveness resulting in low accuracy of predicted hospital visits. More reliable measures must be integrated within the proposed methods. Still, this study strengthens the possibilities of FCA methods in health care planning beyond their original application in measuring spatial accessibility.
Background: From a global viewpoint, endometrial cancer belongs to the most common female cancers. Despite the heavy burden of diseases and numerous unanswered questions, no detailed pictures of the global structure of endometrial cancer research are available so far. Therefore, this malignancy was reviewed using the New Quality and Quantity Indices in Science (NewQIS) protocol.
Methods: Using NewQIS, we identified endometrial carcinoma related research published in the Web of Science from 1900–2015 (P1) and from 2016–2020 (P2). Item analysis was performed with regard to research activity. Also, semi-qualitative aspects and socio-economic benchmarks were visualized using density equalizing mapping.
Results: In total, 9,141 from 1900–2015 and 4,593 from 2016–2020 endometrial cancer related studies were identified with the USA having the largest numbers of publications, citations, institutions, as well as the highest country-specific h-Index concerning endometrial cancer research in both periods. In contrast to other fields of cancer research, the two East Asian countries Japan and China followed concerning total research activities until 2015. From 2016 until 2020, China was found in short distance to the USA and was ranked second. In the socio-economic analysis, European countries were in prominent positions. Greece published 579.83 endometrial carcinoma-related articles per billion US-$ GDP, Finland (527.29), Sweden (494.65), Israel (493.75), and Norway (367.85) followed in the ranking. Density equalizing mapping visualized that large parts of Africa, Asia and South America with a high burden of disease played almost no visible role in the endometrial cancer research activities.
Conclusions: Endometrial cancer research activity is continuously increasing from a global viewpoint. However, the majority of original articles is published by authors based in high-income countries. Together with the finding that the research field of public health does only play a minimal role, our study points to the necessity that global health aspects should be introduced to endometrial cancer research.
Background: Climate change is safe to be one of the biggest challenges of mankind. Human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, contribute to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus to the pace of climate change. The effects of climate change are already being felt, and the resulting damage will most likely be enormous worldwide. Because global impacts vary widely and will lead to very different national vulnerability to climate impacts, each country, depending on its economic background, has different options to ward off negative impacts. Decisions have to be made to mitigate climate consequences according to the preparedness and the vulnerability of countries against the presumed impacts. This requires a profound scientific basis. To provide sound background information, a bibliometric study was conducted to present global research on climate change using established and specific parameters. Bibliometric standard parameters, established socioeconomic values, and climate change specific indices were used for the analyses. This allowed us to provide an overall picture of the global research pattern not only in terms of general aspects, but also in terms of climate change impacts, its effects and regional differences. For this purpose, we choose representative indices, such as the CO2 emissions for the responsibility of countries, the global climate risk index as a combination value for the different types of damage that countries can expect, the increase in sea level as a specific parameter as a measure of the huge global environmental impacts, and the readiness and vulnerability index for the different circumstances of individual countries under which climate change will take place. We hope to have thus made a comprehensive and representative selection of specific parameters that is sufficient to map the global research landscape. We have supplemented the methodology accordingly.
Results: In terms of absolute publication numbers, the USA was the leading country, followed by the UK, and China in 3rd place. The steep rise in Chinese publication numbers over time came into view, while their citation numbers are relatively low. Scandinavian countries were leading regarding their publication numbers related to CO2 emission and socioeconomic indices. Only three developing countries stand out in all analyses: Costa Rica, the Fiji Atoll, and Zimbabwe, although it is here that the climate impact will be greatest. A positive correlation between countries’ preparedness for the impacts of climate change and their publication numbers could be shown, while the correlation between countries’ vulnerability and their publication numbers was negative.
Conclusions: We could show that there exists an inequity between national research efforts according to the publication output and the demands and necessities of countries related to their socioeconomic status. This inequity calls for a rethink, a different approach, and a different policy to improve countries' preparedness and mitigation capacity, which requires the inclusion of the most affected regions of the world in a strengthened international cooperation network.
Needlestick injuries: a density-equalizing mapping and socioeconomic analysis of the global research
(2020)
Background: Needlestick injuries have caused a deleterious effect on the physical and mental health of millions of health-care workers over the past decades, being responsible for occupational infections with viruses such as HIV or hepatis C. Despite this heavy burden of disease, no concise studies have been published on the global research landscape so far.
Methods: We used the New Quality and Quantity Indices in Science platform to analyze global NSI research (n = 2987 articles) over the past 115 years using the Web of Science and parameters such as global versus country-specific research activities, semi-qualitative issues, and socioeconomic figures.
Results: Density-equalizing mapping showed that although a total of n = 106 countries participated in NSI research, large parts of Africa and South America were almost invisible regarding global participation in NSI research. Average citation rate (cr) analysis indicated a high rate for Switzerland (cr = 25.1), Italy (cr = 23.5), and Japan (cr = 19.2). Socioeconomic analysis revealed that the UK had the highest quotient QGDP of 0.13 NSI-specific publications per bill. US-$ gross domestic product (GDP), followed by South Africa (QGDP = 0.12). Temporal analysis of HIV versus hepatitis research indicated that NSI-HIV research culminated in the early 1990s, whereas NSI-hepatitis research increased over the observed period from the 1980s until the last decade.
Conclusion: Albeit NSI research activity is generally increasing, the growth is asymmetrical from a global viewpoint. International strategies should be followed that put a focus on NSI in non-industrialized areas of the world.
Purpose: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses major challenges to health-care systems worldwide. This pandemic demonstrates the importance of timely access to intensive care and, therefore, this study aims to explore the accessibility of intensive care beds in 14 European countries and its impact on the COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR).
Methods: We examined access to intensive care beds by deriving (1) a regional ratio of intensive care beds to 100,000 population capita (accessibility index, AI) and (2) the distance to the closest intensive care unit. The cross-sectional analysis was performed at a 5-by-5 km spatial resolution and results were summarized nationally for 14 European countries. The relationship between AI and CFR was analyzed at the regional level.
Results: We found national-level differences in the levels of access to intensive care beds. The AI was highest in Germany (AI = 35.3), followed by Estonia (AI = 33.5) and Austria (AI = 26.4), and lowest in Sweden (AI = 5) and Denmark (AI = 6.4). The average travel distance to the closest hospital was highest in Croatia (25.3 min by car) and lowest in Luxembourg (9.1 min). Subnational results illustrate that capacity was associated with population density and national-level inventories. The correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation of ICU accessibility and COVID-19 CFR (r = − 0.57; p < 0.001).
Conclusion: Geographical access to intensive care beds varies significantly across European countries and low ICU accessibility was associated with a higher proportion of COVID-19 deaths to cases (CFR). Important differences in access are due to the sizes of national resource inventories and the distribution of health-care facilities relative to the human population. Our findings provide a resource for officials planning public health responses beyond the current COVID-19 pandemic, such as identifying potential locations suitable for temporary facilities or establishing logistical plans for moving severely ill patients to facilities with available beds.
Improving spatial accessibility to hospitals is a major task for health care systems which can be facilitated using recent methodological improvements of spatial accessibility measures. We used the integrated floating catchment area (iFCA) method to analyze spatial accessibility of general inpatient care (internal medicine, surgery and neurology) on national level in Germany determining an accessibility index (AI) by integrating distances, hospital beds and morbidity data. The analysis of 358 million distances between hospitals and population locations revealed clusters of lower accessibility indices in areas in north east Germany. There was a correlation of urbanity and accessibility up to r = 0.31 (p < 0.001). Furthermore, 10% of the population lived in areas with significant clusters of low spatial accessibility for internal medicine and surgery (neurology: 20%). The analysis revealed the highest accessibility for heart failure (AI = 7.33) and the lowest accessibility for stroke (AI = 0.69). The method applied proofed to reveal important aspects of spatial accessibility i.e. geographic variations that need to be addressed. However, for the majority of the German population, accessibility of general inpatient care was either high or at least not significantly low, which suggests rather adequate allocation of hospital resources for most parts of Germany.
Background: Fabry disease (FD), the second most prevalent lysosomal storage disorder, is classified as a rare disease. It often leads to significant quality of life impairments and premature death. Many cases remain undiagnosed due to the rarity and heterogeneity. Further, costs related to treatment often constitute a substantial financial burden for patients and health systems. While its epidemiology is still unclear, newborn screenings suggest that its actual prevalence rate is significantly higher than previously suspected. Methods: Based on well-established methodologies, this study gives an overview about the background of the development of FD-related research and provides a critical view of future needs. Results: On the grounds of benchmarking findings, an increasing research activity on FD can be observed. Most publishing countries are the USA, some European countries, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. In general, high-income countries publish comparably more on FD than low- or middle-income economies. The countries' financial and infrastructural background are unveiled as crucial factors for the FD research activity. Conclusions: Overall, there is a need to foster FD research infrastructure in developing and emerging countries with focus on cost-intensive genetic research that is independent from economic interests of big pharmaceutical companies.
Obstructive Sleep Apnea is emerging as a global health epidemic, particularly due to the obesity pandemic. However, comprehensive prevalence data are still lacking and global OSA research has not yet been structurally evaluated. Using the latest comprehensive age/gender-specific BMI and obesity data, a global landscape estimating the risk/burden of OSA was created. Results were presented in relation to an in-depth analysis of OSA research and countries’ socioeconomic/scientific background. While the USA, Canada, and Japan are the highest publishing countries on OSA, Iceland, Greece, and Israel appeared at the forefront when relating the scientific output to socioeconomic parameters. Conversely, China, India, and Russia showed relatively low performances in these relations. Analysis of the estimated population at risk (EPR) of OSA showed the USA, China, India, and Brazil as the leading countries. Although the EPR and OSA research correlated strongly, major regional discrepancies between the estimated demand and actual research performances were identified, mainly in, but not limited to, developing nations. Our study highlights regional challenges/imbalances in the global activity on OSA and allows targeted measures to mitigate the burden of undiagnosed/untreated OSA. Furthermore, the inclusion of disadvantaged countries in international collaborations could stimulate local research efforts and provide valuable insights into the regional epidemiology of OSA.
Background: The currently prevailing global threat of COVID-19 caused the publication numbers on coronaviruses to explode. The awareness of the scientific and public community is enormous. But what about the sense of all these undertakings and what can be learned about the future for a better understanding? These questions were answered with established bibliometric analyses of the time until the avalanche of publications unfolded.
Methods: Chronological, geographical aspects of publication output on coronavirus were also evaluated under the influence of epidemiological and socio-economic parameters.
Results: The trend in publication and citation numbers shows the strong influence of the past pandemics SARS and MERS with an untypical decline afterward. Research is becoming increasingly multidisciplinary over time. The USA and China, as the countries with the highest number of publications, are being displaced by other countries in the consideration of socio-economic and epidemiological aspects, which shows the effect of regional interest in corona research. A significant correlation was found between the number of SARS cases per country and related publications, while no correlation was found for MERS cases and articles.
Conclusions: The results underline the need for sustainable and forward-looking approaches that should not end with the containment of COVID-19.
The risk of increasing dengue (DEN) and chikungunya (CHIK) epidemics impacts 240 million people, health systems, and the economy in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The aim of this systematic review is to monitor trends in the distribution and spread of DEN/CHIK over time and geographically for future reliable vector and disease control in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on the spatiotemporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH published up to 23 January 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, we found 61 articles that focused on the spatial and temporal distribution of 72,715 DEN and 2334 CHIK cases in the HKH region from 1951 to 2020. DEN incidence occurs in seven HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, and CHIK occurs in four HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, out of eight HKH countries. DEN is highly seasonal and starts with the onset of the monsoon (July in India and June in Nepal) and with the onset of spring (May in Bhutan) and peaks in the postmonsoon season (September to November). This current trend of increasing numbers of both diseases in many countries of the HKH region requires coordination of response efforts to prevent and control the future expansion of those vector-borne diseases to nonendemic areas, across national borders.