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- 208Pb(32,34S,X) (1)
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An easy-to-use model to evaluate conductivities at high and middle latitudes in the height range 70–100 km is presented. It is based on electron density profiles obtained with the EISCAT VHF radar during 11 years and on the neutral atmospheric model MSIS95. The model uses solar zenith angle, geomagnetic activity and season as input parameters. It was mainly constructed to study the properties of Schumann resonances that depend on such conductivity profiles.
Turbulent fluxes of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) were measured over a spruce forest in Central Germany using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique. A REA sampler was developed and validated using simultaneous measurements of CO2 fluxes by REA and by eddy correlation. REA measurements were conducted during six campaigns covering spring, summer, and fall between 1997 and 1999. Both uptake and emission of COS and CS2 by the forest were observed, with deposition occurring mainly during the sunlit period and emission mainly during the dark period. On the average, however, the forest acts as a sink for both gases. The average fluxes for COS and CS2 are -93 ± 11.7 pmol m -2 s -1 and -18 ± 7.6 pmol m -2 s -1, respectively. The fluxes of both gases appear to be correlated to photosynthetically active radiation and to the CO2 and H2O fluxes, supporting the idea that the air-vegetation exchange of both gases is controlled by stomata. An uptake ratio COS / CO2 of 10 ± 1.7 pmol mmol -1 has been derived from the regression line for the correlation between the COS and CO2 fluxes. This uptake ratio, if representative for the global terrestrial net primary production, would correspond to a sink of 2.3 ± 0.5 Tg COS yr-1.
Measurements of OH, the sum of peroxy radicals (ROx), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and various other trace gases were made at the Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeissenberg in June 2000. The data from an intensive measurement period characterised by high solar insolation (18-21 June) are analysed. The maximum midday OH concentration ranged between 4.5 x 106 molecules cm-3 and 7.4 x 106 molecules cm-3. The maximum total ROx mixing ratio increased from about 55 pptv on 18 June to nearly 70 pptv on 20 and 21 June. A total of 64 NMHCs, including isoprene and monoterpenes, were measured every 1 to 6 hours. The oxidation rate of the NMHCs by OH was calculated and reached a total of over 14 x 106 molecules cm-3 s-1 on two days. A simple photostationary state balance model was used to simulate the ambient OH and ROx concentrations with the measured data as input. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the diurnal profiles of both OH and ROx. The model results proved to be most sensitive to assumptions about the mixing ratio of formaldehyde (HCHO), which was included as a proxy for carbonyl compounds, and about the partitioning between HO2 and RO2. The measured OH concentration and ROx mixing ratios were reproduced well by assuming the presence of 3 ppbv HCHO and a ratio HO2/RO2 between 1:1 and 1:2. The most important source of OH, and conversely the greatest sink for ROx, was the recycling of HO2 radicals to OH. This reaction was responsible for the recycling of more than 45 x 106 molecules cm-3 s-1 on two days. The most important sink for OH, and the largest source of ROx, was the oxidation of NMHCs, in particular, of isoprene and the monoterpenes.
Turbulent fluxes of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) were measured over a spruce forest in Central Germany using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique. A REA sampler was developed and validated using simultaneous measurements of CO2 fluxes by REA and by eddy correlation. REA measurements were conducted during six campaigns covering spring, summer, and fall between 1997 and 1999. Both uptake and emission of COS and CS2 by the forest were observed, with deposition occurring mainly during the sunlit period and emission mainly during the dark period. On the average, however, the forest acts as a sink for both gases. The average fluxes for COS and CS2 are -93 ± 11.7 pmol m-2 s-1 and -18 ± 7.6 pmol m-2 s-1, respectively. The fluxes of both gases appear to be correlated to photosynthetically active radiation and to the CO2 and \chem{H_2O} fluxes, supporting the idea that the air-vegetation exchange of both gases is controlled by stomata. An uptake ratio COS/CO2 of 10 ± 1.7 pmol m mol-1 has been derived from the regression line for the correlation between the COS and CO2 fluxes. This uptake ratio, if representative for the global terrestrial net primary production, would correspond to a sink of 2.3 ± 0.5 Tg COS yr-1.
Attribution and detection of anthropogenic climate change using a backpropagation neural network
(2002)
The climate system can be regarded as a dynamic nonlinear system. Thus traditional linear statistical methods are not suited to describe the nonlinearities of this system which renders it necessary to find alternative statistical techniques to model those nonlinear properties. In addition to an earlier paper on this subject (WALTER et al., 1998), the problem of attribution and detection of the observed climate change is addressed here using a nonlinear Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN). In addition to potential anthropogenic influences on climate (CO2-equivalent concentrations, called greenhouse gases, GHG and SO2 emissions) natural influences on surface air temperature (variations of solar activity, volcanism and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon) are integrated into the simulations as well. It is shown that the adaptive BPN algorithm captures the dynamics of the climate system, i.e. global and area weighted mean temperature anomalies, to a great extent. However, free parameters of this network architecture have to be optimized in a time consuming trial-and-error process. The simulation quality obtained by the BPN exceeds the results of those from a linear model by far; the simulation quality on the global scale amounts to 84% explained variance. Additionally the results of the nonlinear algorithm are plausible in a physical sense, i.e. amplitude and time structure. Nevertheless they cover a broad range, e.g. the GHG-signal on the global scale ranges from 0.37 K to 1.65 K warming for the time period 1856-1998. However the simulated amplitudes are situated within the discussed range (HOUGHTON et al., 2001). Additionally the combined anthropogenic effect corresponds to the observed increase in temperature for the examined time period. In addition to that, the BPN succeeds with the detection of anthropogenic induced climate change on a high significance level. Therefore the concept of neural networks can be regarded as a suitable nonlinear statistical tool for modeling and diagnosing the climate system.
Vielleicht hätte sich außerhalb der Fachwissenschaft niemand für das Weltklimaproblem interessiert, wären da nicht zwei brisante, miteinander gekoppelte Fakten: Die Menschheit ist hochgradig von der Gunst des Klimas abhängig. Es kann uns daher nicht gleichgültig sein, was mit unserem Klima geschieht. Und: Die Menschheit ist mehr und mehr dazu übergegangen, das Klima auch selbst zu beeinflussen. Daraus erwächst uns allen eine besondere Verantwortung. ...
Excitation functions for quasi-elastic scattering have been measured at backward angles for the systems 32,34S+197Au and 32,34S+208Pb for energies spanning the Coulomb barrier. Representative distributions, sensitive to the low energy part of the fusion barrier distribution, have been extracted from the data. For the fusion reactions of 32,34S with 197Au couplings related to the nuclear structure of 197Au appear to be dominant in shaping the low energy part of the barrier distibution. For the system 32S+208Pb the barrier distribution is broader and extends further to lower energies, than in the case of 34S+208Pb. This is consistent with the interpretation that the neutron pick-up channels are energetically more favoured in the 32S induced reaction and therefore couple more strongly to the relative motion. It may also be due to the increased collectivity of 32S, when compared with 34S.