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We determine optimal monetary policy under commitment in a forwardlooking New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates are bounded below by zero. The lower bound represents an occasionally binding constraint that causes the model and optimal policy to be nonlinear. A calibration to the U.S. economy suggests that policy should reduce nominal interest rates more aggressively than suggested by a model without lower bound. Rational agents anticipate the possibility of reaching the lower bound in the future and this amplifies the effects of adverse shocks well before the bound is reached. While the empirical magnitude of U.S. mark-up shocks seems too small to entail zero nominal interest rates, shocks affecting the natural real interest rate plausibly lead to a binding lower bound. Under optimal policy, however, this occurs quite infrequently and does not imply positive average inflation rates in equilibrium. Interestingly, the presence of binding real rate shocks alters the policy response to (non-binding) mark-up shocks.
The effects of public policy programmes which aim at internalising spill-overs due to successful innovation are analysed in a sequential double-sided moral hazard double-sided adverse selection framework. The central focus lies in analysing their impact on contract design. We show that in our framework only ex post grants are a robust instrument for implementing the first-best situation, whereas the success of guarantee programmes, ex ante grants and some public-private partnerships depends strongly on the characteristics of the project: in certain cases they not only give no further incentives but even destroy contract mechanisms and so worsen the outcome.
This paper shows that a capital budgeting process in which the division manager is required to engage in personally costly influence activities prior to a project approval has beneficial incentive effects: It provides the manager with incentives to acquire costly information about project prospects and helps to elicit the revelation of the acquired information. As a consequence, imposing influence costs on the manager can lead to improved capital allocations. The optimal level of influence costs, chosen by the firm, trades off ex ante incentives for information acquisition against efficient use of the acquired information ex post.
The current study was part of a series of environment related studies of the Jabal Akhdar sponsored by the Sultan Qaboos University, Al Khoud, Sultanate of Oman. The present study aimed to establish the range, habitat, status and population of breeding species in the area, review the historical perspective and list migrant and visitor species noted during the survey.
Seabirds in the UK were generally more productive in 2005 than in 2004, when productivity for many species reached an all-time low. A presumed scarcity of sandeels in 2004, especially in the North Sea, led to widespread starvation of chicks in the Northern Isles and in many places along the east coast of Britain (there is also recent evidence that prey fish were of unusually low energy content in 2004 around SE Scotland). The likely knock-on effect for 2005 was that there were few larger sandeels present (those that hatched in 2004) and it is thought that feeding on these fish allow adults to attain breeding condition in spring. This food scarcity and a cold spring led to what was among the latest breeding seasons on record. However, a late appearance of young sandeels allowed some chicks to fledge, and alternative prey species (such as sprat and small haddock) were taken also. However, it is thought that some chicks starved in this late season, as sandeels become unavailable in late summer, when they settle on the seabed. Unusually, 2005 was a very poor breeding season for many species in NW Scotland, which was spared the food shortages of 2004 and previous years; preferred prey during chick rearing were scarce in this region in 2005.
When one considers the results of social scientific surveys, secularisation in Germany seems to be a more or less linear process of erosion of what is traditionally named religiosity. The percentage of citizens who affirm that they are “religious”, believe in God or otherworldly beings, hope for life after death or participate regularly in the praxis of a religious community has been – by and large – steadily declining for decades. This decline has occurred over the succeeding generations: The younger the generation, the fewer “religious” people in it. But the process of secularisation is apparent not only in this persistent quantitative shrinkage from generation to generation. Above all it also manifests itself – this is the thesis of the article – in the transformation of the habitus formations and contents of faith of the generations. The essence of ongoing secularisation naturally is reflected most clearly in its contemporary state of development which is represented in the youngest adult generation. Therefore the analysis of this generation is particularly interesting for the sociology of religion. But the article does not confine to analyze this generation. After indicating some basic premises of the sociology of generations and the notion of secularisation presupposed in this paper, the succession of generations in Germany is outlined hypothetically, from the so-called generation of ´68 to the youngest adult generation, concluding with some remarks about the progress of secularisation.
In this paper, I examine the potential of mobile alerting services empowering investors to react quickly to critical market events. Therefore, an analysis of short-term (intraday) price effects is performed. I find abnormal returns to company announcements which are completed within a timeframe of minutes. To make use of these findings, these price effects are predicted using pre-defined external metrics and different estimation methodologies. Compared to previous research, the results provide support that artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression are good estimation models for forecasting price effects also on an intraday basis. As most of the price effect magnitude and effect delay can be estimated correctly, it is demonstrated how a suitable mobile alerting service combining a low level of user-intrusiveness and timely information supply can be designed.