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This paper provides a review of empirical evidence relating to the impact of training on employment performance. Since a central issue in estimating training effects is the sample selection problem a short theoretical discussion of different evaluation strategies is given. The empirical overview primarily focuses on non-experimental evidence for Germany. In addition selected studies for other countries and experimental investigations are discussed.
In this study we are concerned with the impact of vocational training on the individual’s unemployment duration in West Germany. The data basis used is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for the period from 1984 to 1994. To resolve the intriguing sample selection problem, i.e. to find an adequate control group for the group of trainees, we employ matching methods which were developed in the statistical literature. These matching methods uses as the main matching variable the individual propensity score to participate in training, which is obtained by estimating a random effects probit model. On the basis of the matched sample a discrete time hazard rate model is utilized to assess the impact of vocational training on unemployment duration. Our results indicate, that training significantly raises the transition rate of unemployed into employment in the short but not in the long run. JEL classification: C40, J20, J64
We estimate a semiparametric single-risk discrete-time duration model to assess the effect of vocational training on the duration of unemployment spells. The data basis used in this study is the German Socio-Economic-Panel (GSOEP) for West Germany for the period from 1986 to 1994. To take into account a possible selection bias actual participation in vocational training is instrumented using estimates of a randomeffects probit model for the participation in qualification measures. Our main results show that training does have a significant short term effect of reducing unemployment duration but that this effect does not persist in the long run. JEL classifications: C41, J20, J64
This paper is intended as a short survey of the most relevant methods for grouped transition data. The fundamentals of duration analysis are discussed in a continuous time framework, whereas the treatment of methods for discrete durations is limited to the peculiarity of these models. In addition, some recent empirical applications of the methods are discussed.
In recent econometric work, most analyses of female labour supply consider married women, whereas the results for unmarried women are provided rather as a by-product (Burtless/Greenberg, 1982, Johnson/Pencavel, 1984, Leu/Kugler, 1986, Merz, 1990,). When the particular interest is focused on unmarried women, data of the seventies or rather simple econometric models are used (Keeley et al., 1978, Hausman, 1980, Coverman/Kemp, 1987) . Often very specific populations are examined, like for example lone mothers in Blundell/Duncan/Meghir (1992), Jenkins (1992), Staat/Wagenhals (1993) or Laisney et al. (1993). Analysing the economic behaviour of unmarried women, one is confronted with the problem that the term ‘unmarried’ is not clearly defined. It includes single, divorced, separated and widowed women. They live in different types of households, like one-person households or family households, where they occupy different economic positions as for example head of the household or relative of the head. The present work considers unmarried female heads of household. We assume that the dominant economic position as head of household, voluntarily or involuntarily occupied, forces these women to a similar behaviour independent from their family status. Thus they are taken together in the analysis from the different family statuses: single, divorced, separated and widowed. Being unmarried often is regarded as a temporary state, voluntarily or involuntarily, for example in the case of young women before marriage or in the case of divorced women after their separation. Nevertheless the demographic development shows the increased importance of unmarried women in the population during the last decades. In the USA the portion of female headed households raised from 21,1% in 1970 to 26,2% in 1980 and 29,0% in 1992 (Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1993. Own calculations). In the FRG, female headed households constitute 26,4% of total households in 1970, 27,4% in 1980 and 30,1% in 1992 (Stat.Bundesamt, FS 1, Reihe 3, 1970, 1980, 1992). Therefore it seems an interesting topic to analyse the labour supply behaviour of unmarried female heads. Especially the question whether the labour supply of unmarried women resembles rather that of married women or of prime-age males is of particular interest. Another purpose of this analysis is to apply modern econometric panel data models with special emphasis on the problem of unbalanced panel data. Most panel data analyses are carried out using balanced panel data, which is no problem if the selection process could be ignored and if enough cases are available to guarantee efficient estimation. Especially the last point was crucial for the present analysis of unmarried females. In the available panel data sets the unmarried female heads constitute only a rather small population. Therefore the estimation techniques were modified to take missing observations of the individuals into account. The paper is organized as follows: In section 2 the underlying theoretical model of intertemporal labour supply under uncertainty is shortly presented. Section 3 deals with the econometric specification and estimation techniques where the use of unbalanced panel data is considered. Section 4 contains the data description with a particular look on the unbalancedness of the samples. In the last section 5 the empirical results are presented. We compare the estimated parameters for the unmarried women between the USA and the FRG and also analyse the differences between unmarried and married women. Moreover a comparison between different samples of unmarried women is provided.
This paper provides an empirical assessment of hypotheses that identify causes of demand side constraints of individual labour supply. In a comparative study for the USA and the FRG we focus on analysing the effect of productivity gaps (industry wage growth beyond productivity growth), industry investment intensity and regional labour market conditions on individual employment probabilities. Furthermore, we investigate whether demand side constraints of labour supply can be caused by a spill over from commodity markets. Efficiency wage theory and the theory of inter-industry wage differentials are utilised to derive identifying restrictions that are applicable to the labour supply models for both countries. The econometric contribution of the paper is the derivation and application of a two step estimation method for the class of simultaneous random effects double hurdle models, of which the labour supply model employed in this paper is a special case. To provide the empirical basis for the comparative study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel are linked to the OECD’s International Sectoral Database. JEL classification: C33, C34, J64, O57
Modelling consumer behaviour in a profile design using a three equation generalised Tobit model
(1997)
We propose the application of a three equation generalised Tobit to model different aspects of consumer behaviour in a full profile study design. The model takes into account that consumer behaviour can be measured by preference scores, purchase probability and purchase volume. We aim to avoid the drawbacks of traditional conjoint analysis where the latter two aspects are disregarded. Starting from a full profile design, we develop the appropriate questionnaire layout, the econometric model, the likelihood function and tests. The model is applied in a market entry study for an innovative medicament after a reform of Germany´s public health system in 1993-1994. JEL Classification: C35,M31,L65
Comparison of MSACD models
(2003)
We propose a new framework for modelling time dependence in duration processes on financial markets. The well known autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) approach introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended in a way that allows the conditional expectation of the duration process to depend on an unobservable stochastic process which is modelled via a Markov chain. The Markov switching ACD model (MSACD) is a very flexible tool for description and forecasting of financial duration processes. In addition, the introduction of an unobservable, discrete valued regime variable can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. In an empirical application we show that the MSACD approach is able to capture several specific characteristics of inter trade durations while alternative ACD models fail. JEL classification: C22, C25, C41, G14
We propose a new framework for modelling the time dependence in duration processes being in force on financial markets. The pioneering ACD model introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended in a manner that the duration process will be accompanied by an unobservable stochastic process. The Discrete Mixture ACD framework provides us with a general methodology which puts the idea into practice. It is established by introducing a discrete-valued latent regime variable which can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. The empirical application demonstrates its ability to capture specific characteristics of intraday transaction durations while alternative approaches fail. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14.