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Common systemic risk measures focus on the instantaneous occurrence of triggering and systemic events. However, systemic events may also occur with a time-lag to the triggering event. To study this contagion period and the resulting persistence of institutions' systemic risk we develop and employ the Conditional Shortfall Probability (CoSP), which is the likelihood that a systemic market event occurs with a specific time-lag to the triggering event. Based on CoSP we propose two aggregate systemic risk measures, namely the Aggregate Excess CoSP and the CoSP-weighted time-lag, that reflect the systemic risk aggregated over time and average time-lag of an institution's triggering event, respectively. Our empirical results show that 15% of the financial companies in our sample are significantly systemically important with respect to the financial sector, while 27% of the financial companies are significantly systemically important with respect to the American non-financial sector. Still, the aggregate systemic risk of systemically important institutions is larger with respect to the financial market than with respect to non-financial markets. Moreover, the aggregate systemic risk of insurance companies is similar to the systemic risk of banks, while insurers are also exposed to the largest aggregate systemic risk among the financial sector.
The Shared Task on Source and Target Extraction from Political Speeches (STEPS) first ran in 2014 and is organized by the Interest Group on German Sentiment Analysis (IGGSA). This volume presents the proceedings of the workshop of the second iteration of the shared task. The workshop was held at KONVENS 2016 at Ruhr-University Bochum on September 22, 2016.
As in the first edition of the shared task the main focus of STEPS was on fine-grained sentiment analysis and offered a full task as well as two subtasks for the extraction Subjective Expressions and/or their respective Sources and Targets.
In order to make the task more accessible, the annotation schema was revised for this year’s edition and an adjudicated gold standard was used for the evaluation. In contrast to the pilot task, this iteration provided training data for the participants, opening the Shared Task for systems based on machine learning approaches.
The gold standard1 as well as the evaluation tool2 have been made publicly available to the research community via the STEPS’ website.
We would like to thank the GSCL for their financial support in annotating the 2014 test data, which were available as training data in this iteration. A special thanks also goes to Stephanie Köser for her support on preparing and carrying out the annotation of this year’s test data. Finally, we would like to thank all the participants for their contributions and discussions at the workshop.
NLP4CMC III : 3rd workshop on natural language processing for computer-mediated communication
(2016)
The present paper reports the first results of the compilation and annotation of a blog corpus for German. The main aim of the project is the representation of the blog discourse structure and relations between its elements (blog posts, comments) and participants (bloggers, commentators). The data included in the corpus were manually collected from the scientific blog portal SciLogs. The feature catalogue for the corpus annotation includes three types of information which is directly or indirectly provided in the blog or can be construed by means of statistical analysis or computational tools. At this point, only directly available information (e.g., title of the blog post, name of the blogger etc.) has been annotated. We believe, our blog corpus can be of interest for the general study of blog structure or related research questions as well as for the development of NLP methods and techniques (e.g. for authorship detection).
The early acquisition of Greek compounds by two monolingual Greek girls aged between 1;8 and 3;0 years is studied in a usage-based theoretical framework. Special importance is attached to the morphological structure of Greek compound types occurring in child speech and child-directed speech. Greek nominal compound formation does not consist in the mere juxtaposition of words or roots, but involves stems as well as a compound marker. Major questions addressed are the transparency of compounds and productive nominal compound formation. Evidence for productivity of nominal compound formation has been found with only one of the two girls. In contrast to other languages, neoclassical nominal compounds by far exceed endocentric subordinative ones tokenwise in Greek child speech and child-directed speech providing evidence of entrenchment rather than productivity.
In a cross-linguistic comparison it is shown that, in spite of the fact that both Standard Modern Greek and German are rich in nominal compounds, their number is much more limited in Greek than in German child speech. An explanation for this apparent paradox is provided by an onomasiological approach to lexical typology based on a sample list of nominal compounds occurring in German child language and their Greek translational equivalents. It has been found that while use of nominal compounds is common in colloquial German including child-centered situations, it is more typical of Greek formal than colloquial registers.
Monetary policy communication is particularly important during unconventional times, because high uncertainty about the economy, the introduction of new policy tools and possible limits to the central bank’s toolkit could hamper the predictability of policy actions. We study how monetary policy communication should and has worked under such circumstances. Our main results relate to announcements of asset purchase programmes and the use of forward guidance. We show that announcements of asset purchase programmes have lowered market uncertainty, particularly when accompanied by a contextual release of implementation details such as the envisaged size of the programme. We also show that forward guidance reduces uncertainty more effectively when it is state‐contingent or when it provides guidance about a long horizon than when it is open‐ended or covers only a short horizon, and that the credibility of forward guidance is strengthened if the central bank also has embarked on an asset purchase programme.
In 1983, Brian Henderson published an article that examined various types of narrative structure in film, including flashbacks and flashforwards. After analyzing a whole spectrum of techniques capable of effecting a transition between past and present – blurs, fades, dissolves, and so on – he concluded: "Our discussions indicate that cinema has not (yet) developed the complexity of tense structures found in literary works". His "yet" (in parentheses) was an instance of laudable caution, as very soon – in some ten–fifteen years – the situation would change drastically, and temporal twists would become a trademark of a new genre that has not (yet) acquired a standardized name: "modular narratives", "puzzle films", and "complex films" are among the labels used.
Der Beitrag arbeitet die moralische Subjektivierungsform ökonomischer Verschuldung heraus. In Auseinandersetzung mit Friedrich Nietzsche, Max Weber und Pierre Bourdieu wird argumentiert, dass die Form der Verschuldung durch eine spezifische Zeitlichkeit geprägt ist. Die zentrale These lautet, dass sich das Zeitregime von Schuld und Schulden als paradox erweist: Einerseits ermöglicht die moderne "Entzauberung der Welt" (Max Weber) eine Öffnung auf gesellschaftliche Zukünfte hin und diese temporale Öffnung bildet auch eine notwendige Bedingung kapitalistischer Investitionstätigkeiten. Andererseits verstellt das gegenwärtige rigide Zeitregime der Schuld(en) jedoch die Möglichkeit subjektiver und politischer neuer Anfänge in der Zeit, da die Verschuldung eine Dynamik der ökonomischen Determinierung gegenwärtiger Handlungsoptionen durch den Zwang zur Rückzahlung ins Werk setzt.