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Large banks often sell part of their loan portfolio in the form of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to investors. In this paper we raise the question whether credit asset securitization affects the cyclicality (or commonality) of bank equity values. The commonality of bank equity values reflects a major component of systemic risks in the banking market, caused by correlated defaults of loans in the banks' loan books. Our simulations take into account the major stylized fact of CDO transactions, the non-proportional nature of risk sharing that goes along with tranching. We provide a theoretical framework for the risk transfer through securitization that builds on a macro risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor, allowing an identification of the types of risk that the individual tranche holders bear. This allows conclusions about the risk positions of issuing banks after risk transfer. Building on the strict subordination of tranches, we first evaluate the correlation properties both within and across risk classes. We then determine the effect of securitization on the systematic risk of all tranches, and derive its effect on the issuing bank's equity beta. The simulation results show that under plausible assumptions concerning bank reinvestment behaviour and capital structure choice, the issuing intermediary's systematic risk tends to rise. We discuss the implications of our findings for financial stability supervision. Klassifikation: G28
In this paper, we consider expected value, variance and worst-case optimization of nonlinear models. We present algorithms for computing optimal expected values, and variance, based on iterative Taylor expansions. We establish convergence and consider the relative merits of policies beaded on expected value optimization and worst-case robustness. The latter is a minimax strategy and ensures optimal cover in view of the worst-case scenario(s) while the former is optimal expected performance in a stochastic setting. Both approaches are used with a macroeconomic policy model to illustrate relative performances, robustness and trade-offs between the strategies. Klassifikation: C61, E43
Market efficiency today
(2006)
This CFS Working Paper has been presented at the CFSsymposium "Market Efficiency Today" held in Frankfurt/Main on October 6, 2005. In 2004 the Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in cooperation with the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main established an international academic prize, which is to be known as The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics. The prize will honor an internationally renowned researcher who has excelled through influential contributions to research in the fields of finance and money and macroeconomics, and whose work has lead to practice and policy-relevant results. The Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics has been awarded for the first time in October 2005. The prize, sponsored by the Stiftungsfonds Deutsche Bank im Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft, carries a cash award of € 50,000. The prize will be awarded every two years and the prize holder will be appointed a "Distinguished Fellow" of the CFS. The role of media partner for the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics is to be filled by the internationally renowned publication, The Economist and the Handelsblatt, the leading German-language financial and business newspaper.
Using unobservable conditional variance as measure, latent-variable approaches, such as GARCH and stochastic-volatility models, have traditionally been dominating the empirical finance literature. In recent years, with the availability of high-frequency financial market data modeling realized volatility has become a new and innovative research direction. By constructing "observable" or realized volatility series from intraday transaction data, the use of standard time series models, such as ARFIMA models, have become a promising strategy for modeling and predicting (daily) volatility. In this paper, we show that the residuals of the commonly used time-series models for realized volatility exhibit non-Gaussianity and volatility clustering. We propose extensions to explicitly account for these properties and assess their relevance when modeling and forecasting realized volatility. In an empirical application for S&P500 index futures we show that allowing for time-varying volatility of realized volatility leads to a substantial improvement of the model's fit as well as predictive performance. Furthermore, the distributional assumption for residuals plays a crucial role in density forecasting. Klassifikation: C22, C51, C52, C53
We present a higher-order call-by-need lambda calculus enriched with constructors, case-expressions, recursive letrec-expressions, a seq-operator for sequential evaluation and a non-deterministic operator amb, which is locally bottom-avoiding. We use a small-step operational semantics in form of a normal order reduction. As equational theory we use contextual equivalence, i.e. terms are equal if plugged into an arbitrary program context their termination behaviour is the same. We use a combination of may- as well as must-convergence, which is appropriate for non-deterministic computations. We evolve different proof tools for proving correctness of program transformations. We provide a context lemma for may- as well as must- convergence which restricts the number of contexts that need to be examined for proving contextual equivalence. In combination with so-called complete sets of commuting and forking diagrams we show that all the deterministic reduction rules and also some additional transformations keep contextual equivalence. In contrast to other approaches our syntax as well as semantics does not make use of a heap for sharing expressions. Instead we represent these expressions explicitely via letrec-bindings.
Static analysis of different non-strict functional programming languages makes use of set constants like Top, Inf, and Bot denoting all expressions, all lists without a last Nil as tail, and all non-terminating programs, respectively. We use a set language that permits union, constructors and recursive definition of set constants with a greatest fixpoint semantics. This paper proves decidability, in particular EXPTIMEcompleteness, of subset relationship of co-inductively defined sets by using algorithms and results from tree automata. This shows decidability of the test for set inclusion, which is required by certain strictness analysis algorithms in lazy functional programming languages.
Extending the method of Howe, we establish a large class of untyped higher-order calculi, in particular such with call-by-need evaluation, where similarity, also called applicative simulation, can be used as a proof tool for showing contextual preorder. The paper also demonstrates that Mann’s approach using an intermediate “approximation” calculus scales up well from a basic call-by-need non-deterministic lambdacalculus to more expressive lambda calculi. I.e., it is demonstrated, that after transferring the contextual preorder of a non-deterministic call-byneed lambda calculus to its corresponding approximation calculus, it is possible to apply Howe’s method to show that similarity is a precongruence. The transfer is not treated in this paper. The paper also proposes an optimization of the similarity-test by cutting off redundant computations. Our results also applies to deterministic or non-deterministic call-by-value lambda-calculi, and improves upon previous work insofar as it is proved that only closed values are required as arguments for similaritytesting instead of all closed expressions.
The paper examines challenges in effectively implementing the lender-of-last-resort function in the EU single financial market. Briefly highlighted are features of the EU financial landscape that could increase EU systemic financial risk. Briefly described are the complexities of the EU’s financial-stability architecture for preventing and resolving financial problems, including lender-of-last-resort operations. The paper examines how the lender-of-last-resort function might materialize during a systemic financial disturbance affecting more than one EU Member State. The paper identifies challenges and possible ways of enhancing the effectiveness of the existing architecture.
Anfang 2005 wurde die Schweizer „Capital Efficiency Group“ von den Lesern der bekannten Publikation „Structured Finance International“ mit dem Preis “Innovativster Asset Back Deal des Jahres 2004” ausgezeichnet sowie von „The Banker“ für einen der „Deals of the Year“ gewürdigt. Prämiert wurde die Entwicklung von „Preferred Pooled Shares“ (PREPS). Was verbirgt sich hinter diesem Konstrukt? Bei PREPS handelt es sich um ein Finanzprodukt der „Capital Efficiency Group“, die sich den Eigennamen „PREPS“ als Marke hat eintragen lassen. PREPS ist somit nur der Name eines speziellen Finanzinstruments. Die Bezeichnung PREPS wird aber gleichsam stellvertretend für eine Vielzahl von Finanzprodukten, durch die in eigenkapitalähnliche Finanztitel des Mittelstands investiert wird, verwendet. Zu nennen sind in diesem Zusammenhang „ge/mit“ und „equiNotes“ sowie einige weniger populäre Produkte. Jedes dieser Finanzprodukte weist im Detail eine andere Struktur auf, grundsätzlich basieren aber alle auf derselben Grundidee. Die folgenden Ausführungen stellen die Struktur und Funktionsweise dieser Finanzprodukte dar. Weitere Abschnitte erörtern sodann den wirtschaftlichen Hintergrund und die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen.