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A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.
Inhibition of fatty acid synthesis (FAS) stimulates tumor cell death and reduces angiogenesis. When SH-SY5Y cells or primary neurons are exposed to hypoxia only, inhibition of FAS yields significantly enhanced cell injury. The pathophysiology of stroke, however, is not only restricted to hypoxia but also includes reoxygenation injury. Hence, an oxygen-glucose-deprivation (OGD) model with subsequent reoxygenation in both SH-SY5Y cells and primary neurons as well as a murine stroke model were used herein in order to study the role of FAS inhibition and its underlying mechanisms. SH-SY5Y cells and cortical neurons exposed to 10 h of OGD and 24 h of reoxygenation displayed prominent cell death when treated with the Acetyl-CoA carboxylase inhibitor TOFA or the fatty acid synthase inhibitor cerulenin. Such FAS inhibition reduced the reduction potential of these cells, as indicated by increased NADH2+/NAD+ ratios under both in vitro and in vivo stroke conditions. As observed in the OGD model, FAS inhibition also resulted in increased cell death in the stroke model. Stroke mice treated with cerulenin did not only display increased brain injury but also showed reduced neurological recovery during the observation period of 4 weeks. Interestingly, cerulenin treatment enhanced endothelial cell leakage, reduced transcellular electrical resistance (TER) of the endothelium and contributed to poststroke blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown. The latter was a consequence of the activated NF-κB pathway, stimulating MMP-9 and ABCB1 transporter activity on the luminal side of the endothelium. In conclusion, FAS inhibition aggravated poststroke brain injury as consequence of BBB breakdown and NF-κB-dependent inflammation.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen, Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSDs) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6 months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify seven distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b=0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b=3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach that approximates the surface wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase shift elimination method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the seven prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows the constraint of shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifera that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Desmophyllum pertusum (formerly known as Lophelia pertusa). Here, we present measurements of the trace element and isotopic composition of these parasitic foraminifera, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (gas-source MS and inductively-coupled-plasma MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr / Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol−1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest D. pertusum, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilized in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of D. pertusum has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata. Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on D. pertusum, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host's carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn / Ca ratios in foraminifera that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifera, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifera is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr / Ca, Mn / Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
Evidence of hydrothermal activity is reported for the Mesozoic pre- and syn-rift successions of the western Adriatic palaeomargin of the Alpine Tethys, preserved in the Western Southalpine Domain (NW Italy). The products of hydrothermal processes are represented by vein and breccia cements, as well as dolomitization and silicification of the host rocks. In the eastern part of the study area, interpreted as part of the necking zone of the continental margin, Middle Triassic dolostones and Lower Jurassic sediments are crossed by veins and hydrofracturing breccias cemented by saddle dolomite. The precipitation of dolomite cements occurred within the stratigraphic succession close to the sediment–water interface. Despite the shallow burial depth, fluid inclusion microthermometry and clumped isotopes show that hydrothermal fluids were relatively hot (80–150°C). In the western part of the study area, interpreted as part of the hyperextended distal zone, a polyphase history of host-rock fracturing is recorded, with at least two generations of veins cemented by calcite, dolomite and quartz. Vein opening and cementation occurred at shallow burial depth around the time of deposition of the syn-rift clastic succession. Fluid inclusion microthermometry on both quartz and dolomite cements indicates a fluid temperature of 90–130°C, again pointing to hydrothermal fluids. Both in Fenera-Sostegno and Montalto Dora areas, O, C and Sr isotope values, coupled with fluid inclusion and clumped isotope data, indicate that hydrothermal fluids derived from seawater interacted with crustal rocks during hydrothermal circulation. Stratigraphic and petrographic evidence, and U–Pb dating of dolomitized clasts within syn-rift sediments, document that hydrothermal fluids circulated through sediments from the latest Triassic to the Toarcian, corresponding to the entire syn-rift evolution of the western portion of the Adriatic palaeomargin. The documented hydrothermal processes are temporally correlated with regional-scale thermal events that took place in the same time interval at deeper crustal levels.
Background: No simple staging system has emerged for basal cell carcinomas (BCCs), since they do not follow the TNM process, and practitioners failed to agree on simple clinical or pathological criteria as a basis for a classification. Operational classification of BCCs is required for decision-making, trials and guidelines. Unsupervised clustering of real cases of difficult-to-treat BCCs (DTT-BCCs; part 1) has demonstrated that experts could blindly agree on a five groups classification of DTT-BCCs based on five patterns of clinical situations. Objective: Using this five patterns to generate an operational and comprehensive classification of BCCs. Method: Testing practitioner's agreement, when using the five patterns classification to ensure that it is robust enough to be used in the practice. Generating the first version of a staging system of BCCs based on pattern recognition. Results: Sixty-two physicians, including 48 practitioners and the 14 experts who participated in the generation of the five different patterns of DTT-BCCs, agreed on 90% of cases when classifying 199 DTT-BCCs cases using the five patterns classification (part 1) attesting that this classification is understandable and usable in practice. In order to cover the whole field of BCCs, these five groups of DTT-BCCs were added a group representing the huge number of easy-to-treat BCCs, for which sub-classification has little interest, and a group of very rare metastatic cases, resulting in a four-stage and seven-substage staging system of BCCs. Conclusion: A practical classification adapted to the specificities of BCCs is proposed. It is the first tumour classification based on pattern recognition of clinical situations, which proves to be consistent and usable. This EADO staging system version 1 will be improved step by step and tested as a decision tool and a prognostic instrument.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The stem-loop (SL1) is the 5'-terminal structural element within the single-stranded SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome. It is formed by nucleotides 7–33 and consists of two short helical segments interrupted by an asymmetric internal loop. This architecture is conserved among Betacoronaviruses. SL1 is present in genomic SARS-CoV-2 RNA as well as in all subgenomic mRNA species produced by the virus during replication, thus representing a ubiquitous cis-regulatory RNA with potential functions at all stages of the viral life cycle. We present here the 1H, 13C and 15N chemical shift assignment of the 29 nucleotides-RNA construct 5_SL1, which denotes the native 27mer SL1 stabilized by an additional terminal G-C base-pair.
When a nanoparticle is irradiated by an intense laser pulse, it turns into a nanoplasma, a transition that is accompanied by many interesting nonequilibrium dynamics. So far, most experiments on nanoplasmas use ion measurements, reflecting the outside dynamics in the nanoparticle. Recently, the direct observation of the ultrafast structural dynamics on the inside of the nanoparticle also became possible with the advent of x-ray free electron lasers (XFELs). Here, we report on combined measurements of structural dynamics and speeds of ions ejected from nanoplasmas produced by intense near-infrared laser irradiations, with the control of the initial plasma conditions accomplished by widely varying the laser intensity (9×1014 W/cm2 to 3×1016 W/cm2). The structural change of nanoplasmas is examined by time-resolved x-ray diffraction using an XFEL, while the kinetic energies of ejected ions are measured by an ion time-of-fight method under the same experimental conditions. We find that the timescale of crystalline disordering in nanoplasmas strongly depends on the laser intensity and scales with the inverse of the average speed of ions ejected from the nanoplasma. The observations support a recently suggested scenario for nanoplasma dynamics in the wide intensity range, in which crystalline disorder in nanoplasmas is caused by a rarefaction wave propagating at a speed comparable with the average ion speed from the surface toward the inner crystalline core. We demonstrate that the scenario is also applicable to nanoplasma dynamics in the hard x-ray regime. Our results connect the outside nanoplasma dynamics to the loss of structure inside the sample on the femtosecond timescale.