Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (534)
- Doctoral Thesis (86)
- Conference Proceeding (13)
- Working Paper (9)
- Preprint (5)
- Master's Thesis (3)
- Part of a Book (2)
- Bachelor Thesis (1)
- Report (1)
- Review (1)
Language
- English (655) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- yes (655)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (655)
Keywords
- climate change (13)
- Climate change (5)
- Geochemistry (5)
- Atmospheric chemistry (4)
- Biogeochemistry (3)
- Boden (3)
- COSMO-CLM (3)
- High-pressure (3)
- Palaeoclimate (3)
- Salinity (3)
Institute
- Geowissenschaften (655) (remove)
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
Water footprints have been proposed as sustainability indicators, relating the consumption of goods like food to the amount of water necessary for their production and the impacts of that water use in the source regions. We have further developed the existing water footprint methodology by globally resolving virtual water flows and import and source regions at 5 arc minutes spatial resolution, and by assessing local impacts of export production. Applying this method to three exemplary cities, Berlin, Delhi and Lagos, we find major differences in amounts, composition, and origin of green and blue virtual water imports, due to differences in diets, trade integration and crop water productivities in the source regions. While almost all of Delhi's and Lagos' virtual water imports are of domestic origin, Berlin on average imports from more than 4000 km distance, in particular soy (livestock feed), coffee and cocoa. While 42% of Delhi's virtual water imports are blue water based, the fractions for Berlin and Lagos are 2% and 0.5%, respectively, roughly equal to local drinking water abstractions of these cities. Some of the external source regions of Berlin's virtual water imports appear to be critically water scarce and/or food insecure. However for deriving recommendations on sustainable consumption and trade, further analysis of context-specific costs and benefits associated with export production will be required.
Water footprints have been proposed as sustainability indicators, relating the consumption of goods like food to the amount of water necessary for their production and the impacts of that water use in the source regions. We further developed the existing water footprint methodology, by globally resolving virtual water flows from production to consumption regions for major food crops at 5 arcmin spatial resolution. We distinguished domestic and international flows, and assessed local impacts of export production. Applying this method to three exemplary cities, Berlin, Delhi and Lagos, we find major differences in amounts, composition, and origin of green and blue virtual water imports, due to differences in diets, trade integration and crop water productivities in the source regions. While almost all of Delhi's and Lagos' virtual water imports are of domestic origin, Berlin on average imports from more than 4000 km distance, in particular soy (livestock feed), coffee and cocoa. While 42% of Delhi's virtual water imports are blue water based, the fractions for Berlin and Lagos are 2 and 0.5%, respectively, roughly equal to the water volumes abstracted in these two cities for domestic water use. Some of the external source regions of Berlin's virtual water imports appear to be critically water scarce and/or food insecure. However, for deriving recommendations on sustainable consumption and trade, further analysis of context-specific costs and benefits associated with export production will be required.
wo assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.
The present study was elaborated within the scope of the INTAFERE (Integrated Analysis of Mobile Organic Foreign Substances in Rivers) project which investigates the occurrence of xenobiotics in small freshwater streams with particular consideration of social impact factors. The aim of this study is to investigate the seasonal and spatial variance of organic micropollutants in small fresh water streams and to identify possible sources and sinks. Therefore four small freshwater river systems in Hesse, Germany, have been investigated with respect to common organic pollutants such as: the organophosphates tri-n-butyl phosphate (TBP), tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate (TBEP), tris(2-chloroethyl)phosphate (TCEP), tris(1-chloro-2-propyl)phosphate (TCPP), and tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl)phosphate (TDCPP), the synthetic musk fragrances 1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8-hexa-methylcyclopenta-[g]-2-benzopyran (HHCB) and 7-acetyl-1,1,3,4,4,6-hexamethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene (AHTN), the endocrine disruptors bisphenol A (BPA), 4-tert-octylphenol (OP) and the technical isomer mixture of 4-nonylphenol (NP), the herbicide terbutryn [2-(t-butylamino)-4-(ethylamino)-6-(methylthio)-s-triazine] as well as the insect repellent N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET). Water samples were collected in the time span from September 2003 to September 2006 at 26 sampling locations. The samples were extracted with solid phase extraction (SPE) and analyzed by coupled gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). For quantification the internal standard method was used. The results of the study showed an ubiquitous occurrence of organic pollutants in the fresh water streams of the study area. The organophosphates have been detected in 90 % of the water samples with mean concentrations of 502 ng/l (TCPP), 276 ng/l (TBP), 183 ng/l (TBEP), 118 ng/l (TCEP) and 117 ng/l (TDCPP). Sewage treatment plant (STP) effluents were identified as the dominating source for the chlorinated organophosphates as well as for the synthetic musk fragrances and the insect repellent DEET in the river systems. Consequently the highest concentrations were observed in the Schwarzbach system characterized by the highest proportion of waste water compared to the other river systems. Mean concentration levels of the synthetic musk fragrances HHCB and ATHN were 141 ng/l and 46 ng/l, respectively and 124 ng/l in case of DEET. The synthetic musk fragrances showed a clear seasonal trend with significantly lower concentrations in summer times compared to winter times, which is ascribed to stronger photodegradation and volatization during summer times. In contrast, mean DEET concentrations and loads were significantly higher in summer than in autumn, winter and spring, in parallel with the main insect season. The concentrations of the endocrine disruptors BPA, NP and OP in the river water samples ranged from <20 ng/l to 1927 ng/l, <10 ng/l to 770 ng/l, and <10 ng/l to 420 ng/l, respectively. Whereas OP was present in about 2/3 of the samples, NP and BPA could only be detected in 56% and 13% of the water samples, respectively. BPA levels exceeded in two samples the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for water organisms. In case of NP, highest concentrations and loads were found in September 2003 and decreased significantly since then. In contrast, concentrations and loads of OP which serves in a similar application field remained nearly constant during the sampling period. The decrease of NP can be attributed to the implementation of the European Directive 2003/53/EG, which restricts the use of nonylphenols and nonylphenol ethoxylates since January 2005. However, at the end of the sampling period in September 2006, NP could still be detected at mean concentrations of 18 ng/l in the river waters of the sampling area. Furthermore, absence of NP in several samples from associated STP effluents indicate that the STPs cannot be the only sources for NP found in the river water. The herbicide terbutryn was present in the rivers during the whole sampling period from September 2003 to September 2006 despite a ban on its use as a herbicide from January 2004 on. Terbutryn levels ranged from < 4 ng/l to 5600 ng/l, showing a clear spatial pattern with high terbutryn concentrations in the Weschnitz and Modau river systems and significantly lower terbutryn levels in Schwarzbach and Winkelbach. Results from the analysis of two STP effluents discharging into the Weschnitz and the Modau, respectively, indicate that terbutryn enters the rivers from this source. Furthermore, terbutryn concentrations and loads showed a clear seasonal trend with significantly higher levels in summer and autumn. Obviously, the ban on agricultural use of terbutryn at the end of 2003 had no discernable influence on terbutryn concentration in the rivers because there was no trend of decreasing.