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Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
The use of cardiac troponins (cTn) is the gold standard for diagnosing myocardial infarction. Independent of myocardial infarction (MI), however, sex, age and kidney function affect cTn levels. Here we developed a method to adjust cTnI levels for age, sex, and renal function, maintaining a unified cut-off value such as the 99th percentile. A total of 4587 individuals enrolled in a prospective longitudinal study were used to develop a model for adjustment of cTn. cTnI levels correlated with age and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in males/females with rage = 0.436/0.518 and with reGFR = −0.142/−0.207. For adjustment, these variables served as covariates in a linear regression model with cTnI as dependent variable. This adjustment model was then applied to a real-world cohort of 1789 patients with suspected acute MI (AMI) (N = 407). Adjusting cTnI showed no relevant loss of diagnostic information, as evidenced by comparable areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves, to identify AMI in males and females for adjusted and unadjusted cTnI. In specific patients groups such as in elderly females, adjusting cTnI improved specificity for AMI compared with unadjusted cTnI. Specificity was also improved in patients with renal dysfunction by using the adjusted cTnI values. Thus, the adjustments improved the diagnostic ability of cTnI to identify AMI in elderly patients and in patients with renal dysfunction. Interpretation of cTnI values in complex emergency cases is facilitated by our method, which maintains a single diagnostic cut-off value in all patients.
Copeptin is the C-terminal end of pre-provasopressin released equimolar to vasopressin into circulation and recently discussed as promising cardiovascular biomarker amendatory to established markers such as troponins. Vasopressin is a cytokine synthesized in the hypothalamus. A direct release of copeptin from the heart into the circulation is implied by data from a rat model showing a cardiac origin in hearts put under cardiovascular wall stress. Therefore, evaluation of a potential release of copeptin from the human heart in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been done.
Aims: To compare the effects of Ayurvedic and conventional nutritional therapy in patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Methods: Sixty-nine patients with IBS were randomized to Ayurvedic (n = 35) or conventional nutritional therapy according to the recommendations of the German Nutrition Society including the low-FODMAP diet (n = 34). Study visits took place at baseline and after 1, 3, and 6 months. The primary outcome was IBS symptom severity (IBS-SSS) after 3 months; secondary outcomes included stress (CPSS), anxiety and depression (HADS), well-being (WHO-5) and IBS-specific quality of life (IBS-QOL). A repeated measures general linear model (GLM) for intent-to-treat-analyses was applied in this explorative study. Results: After 3 months, estimated marginal means for IBS-SSS reductions were 123.8 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 92.8–154.9; p < 0.001] in the Ayurvedic and 72.7 (95% CI = 38.8–106.7; p < 0.001) in the conventional group. The IBS-SSS reduction was significantly higher in the Ayurveda group compared to the conventional therapy group (estimated marginal mean = 51.1; 95% CI = 3.8–98.5; p = 0.035) and clinically meaningful. Sixty-eight percentage of the variance in IBS-SSS reduction after 3 months can be explained by treatment, 6.5% by patients' expectations for their therapies and 23.4% by IBS-SSS at pre-intervention. Both therapies are equivalent in their contribution to the outcome variance. The higher the IBS-SSS score at pre-intervention and the larger the patients' expectations, the greater the IBS-SSS reduction. There were no significant group differences in any secondary outcome measures. No serious adverse events occurred in either group. Conclusion: Patients with IBS seem to benefit significantly from Ayurvedic or conventional nutritional therapy. The results warrant further studies with longer-term follow-ups and larger sample sizes. Clinical Trial Registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03019861, identifier: NCT03019861.
A central motivation for the development of x-ray free-electron lasers has been the prospect of time-resolved single-molecule imaging with atomic resolution. Here, we show that x-ray photoelectron diffraction—where a photoelectron emitted after x-ray absorption illuminates the molecular structure from within—can be used to image the increase of the internuclear distance during the x-ray-induced fragmentation of an O2 molecule. By measuring the molecular-frame photoelectron emission patterns for a two-photon sequential K-shell ionization in coincidence with the fragment ions, and by sorting the data as a function of the measured kinetic energy release, we can resolve the elongation of the molecular bond by approximately 1.2 a.u. within the duration of the x-ray pulse. The experiment paves the road toward time-resolved pump-probe photoelectron diffraction imaging at high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers.
Multiplex families with a high prevalence of a psychiatric disorder are often examined to identify rare genetic variants with large effect sizes. In the present study, we analysed whether the risk for bipolar disorder (BD) in BD multiplex families is influenced by common genetic variants. Furthermore, we investigated whether this risk is conferred mainly by BD-specific risk variants or by variants also associated with the susceptibility to schizophrenia or major depression. In total, 395 individuals from 33 Andalusian BD multiplex families as well as 438 subjects from an independent, sporadic BD case-control cohort were analysed. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for BD, schizophrenia, and major depression were calculated and compared between the cohorts. Both the familial BD cases and unaffected family members had significantly higher PRS for all three psychiatric disorders than the independent controls, suggesting a high baseline risk for several psychiatric disorders in the families. Moreover, familial BD cases showed significantly higher BD PRS than unaffected family members and sporadic BD cases. A plausible hypothesis is that, in multiplex families with a general increase in risk for psychiatric disease, BD development is attributable to a high burden of common variants that confer a specific risk for BD. The present analyses, therefore, demonstrated that common genetic risk variants for psychiatric disorders are likely to contribute to the high incidence of affective psychiatric disorders in the multiplex families. The PRS explained only part of the observed phenotypic variance and rare variants might have also contributed to disease development.
Bone marrow and plasma FGF‐23 in heart failure patients : novel insights into the heart–bone axis
(2019)
Aims: Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF‐23) is known to be elevated in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). As FGF‐23 is expressed in the bone but can also be expressed in the myocardium, the origin of serum FGF‐23 in CHF remains unclear. It is also unclear if FGF‐23 expressed in the bone is associated with outcome in CHF. The aim of the present study was to investigate FGF‐23 levels measured in bone marrow plasma (FGF‐23‐BM) and in peripheral blood (FGF‐23‐P) in CHF patients to gain further insights into the heart–bone axis of FGF‐23 expression. We also investigated possible associations between FGF‐23‐BM as well as FGF‐23‐P and outcome in CHF patients.
Methods and results: We determined FGF‐23‐P and FGF‐23‐BM levels in 203 CHF patients (85% male, mean age 61.3 years) with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% and compared them with those of 48 healthy controls (48% male, mean age 39.2 years). We investigated the association between FGF‐23‐BM and FGF‐23‐P with all‐cause mortality in CHF patients, 32 events, median follow‐up 1673 days, interquartile range [923, 1828]. FGF‐23‐P (median 60.3 vs. 22.0 RU/mL, P < 0.001) and FGF‐23‐BM (median 130.7 vs. 93.1 RU/mL, P < 0.001) levels were higher in CHF patients compared with healthy controls. FGF‐23‐BM levels were significantly higher than FGF‐23‐P levels in both CHF patients and in healthy controls (P < 0.001). FGF‐23‐P and FGF‐23‐BM correlated significantly with LVEF (r = −0.37 and r = −0.33, respectively), N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide levels (r = 0.57 and r = 0.6, respectively), New York Heart Association status (r = 0.28 and r = 0.25, respectively), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (r = −0.43 and r = −0.41, respectively) (P for all <0.001) and were independently associated with all‐cause mortality in CHF patients after adjustment for LVEF, estimated glomerular filtration rate, New York Heart Association status, and N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide, hazard ratio 2.71 [confidence interval: 1.18–6.20], P = 0.018, and hazard ratio 2.80 [confidence interval: 1.19–6.57], P = 0.018, respectively.
Conclusions: In CHF patients, FGF‐23 is elevated in bone marrow plasma and is independently associated with heart failure severity and all‐cause mortality. The failing heart seems to interact via FGF‐23 within a heart–bone axis.
Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of myocardial infarction. Cardiac troponins are the biomarkers of choice for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) without ST‐segment elevation (NSTE). In patients with CKD, troponin levels are often chronically elevated, which reduces their diagnostic utility when NSTE‐AMI is suspected. The aim of this study was to derive a diagnostic algorithm for serial troponin measurements in patients with CKD and suspected NSTE‐AMI.
Methods and Results: Two cohorts, 1494 patients from a prospective cohort study with high‐sensitivity troponin I (hs‐cTnI) measurements and 7059 cases from a clinical registry with high‐sensitivity troponin T (hs‐cTnT ) measurements, were analyzed. The prospective cohort comprised 280 CKD patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). The registry data set contained 1581 CKD patients. In both cohorts, CKD patients were more likely to have adjudicated NSTE‐AMI than non‐CKD patients. The specificities of hs‐cTnI and hs‐cTnT to detect NSTE‐AMI were reduced with CKD (0.82 versus 0.91 for hs‐cTnI and 0.26 versus 0.73 for hs‐cTnT) but could be restored by applying optimized cutoffs to either the first or a second measurement after 3 hours. The best diagnostic performance was achieved with an algorithm that incorporates serial measurements and rules in or out AMI in 69% (hs‐cTnI) and 55% (hs‐cTnT) of CKD patients.
Conclusions: The diagnostic performance of high‐sensitivity cardiac troponins in patients with CKD with suspected NSTE‐AMI is improved by use of an algorithm based on admission troponin and dynamic changes in troponin concentration.
In resource-limited or point-of-care settings, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), that aim to simultaneously detect HIV antibodies and p24 capsid (p24CA) antigen with high sensitivity, can pose important alternatives to screen for early infections. We evaluated the performance of the antibody and antigen components of the old and novel version of the Determine™ HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab Combo RDTs in parallel to quantifications in a fourth-generation antigen/antibody immunoassay (4G-EIA), p24CA antigen immunoassay (p24CA-EIA), immunoblots, and nucleic acid quantification. We included plasma samples of acute, treatment-naïve HIV-1 infections (Fiebig stages I–VI, subtypes A1, B, C, F, CRF02_AG, CRF02_AE, URF) or chronic HIV-1 and HIV-2 infections. The tests’ antigen component was evaluated also for a panel of subtype B HIV-1 transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses, HIV-2 strains and HIV-2 primary isolates. Furthermore, we assessed the analytical sensitivity of the RDTs to detect p24CA using a highly purified HIV-1NL4-3 p24CA standard. We found that 77% of plasma samples from acutely infected, immunoblot-negative HIV-1 patients in Fiebig stages II–III were identified by the new RDT, while only 25% scored positive in the old RDT. Both RDTs reacted to all samples from chronically HIV-1-infected and acutely HIV-1-infected patients with positive immunoblots. All specimens from chronically infected HIV-2 patients scored positive in the new RDT. Of note, the sensitivity of the RDTs to detect recombinant p24CA from a subtype B virus ranged between 50 and 200 pg/mL, mirrored also by the detection of HIV-1 T/F viruses only at antigen concentrations tenfold higher than suggested by the manufacturer. The RTD failed to recognize any of the HIV-2 viruses tested. Our results indicate that the new version of the Determine™ HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab Combo displays an increased sensitivity to detect HIV-1 p24CA-positive, immunoblot-negative plasma samples compared to the precursor version. The sensitivity of 4G-EIA and p24CA-EIA to detect the major structural HIV antigen, and thus to diagnose acute infections prior to seroconversion, is still superior.
Continuous blood glucose monitoring reveals enormous circadian variations in pregnant diabetic rats
(2018)
Aim: Diabetes in pregnancy is a major burden with acute and long-term consequences. Its treatment requires adequate diagnosis and monitoring of therapy. Many experimental research on diabetes during pregnancy has been performed in rats. Recently, continuous blood glucose monitoring of non-pregnant diabetic rats revealed an increased circadian variability of blood glucose that made a single blood glucose measurement per day inappropriate to reflect glycemic status. Continuous blood glucose measurement has never been performed in pregnant rats. We wanted to perform continuous blood glucose monitoring in pregnant rats to decipher the influence of pregnancy on blood glucose in diabetic and normoglycemic status.
Methods: We used the transgenic Tet29 diabetes rat model with an inducible knock down of the insulin receptor via RNA interference upon application of doxycycline (DOX) leading to insulin resistant type II diabetes. All Tet29 rats received a HD-XG telemetry implant (Data Sciences International, USA) that measured blood glucose and activity continuously. Rats were divided into four groups and blood glucose was monitored until end of pregnancy or the corresponding period: Tet29 + DOX (diabetic) non-pregnant, Tet29 + DOX (diabetic) pregnant, Tet29 (normoglycemic) non-pregnant, Tet29 (normoglycemic) pregnant.
Results: All analyzed rats displayed a circadian variation in blood glucose concentration. Circadian variability was much more pronounced in pregnant diabetic rats than in normoglycemic pregnant rats. Pregnancy ameliorated variation in blood glucose in diabetic situation. Pregnancy continuously decreased blood glucose during normoglycemic pregnancy. Diabetic rats were less active than normoglycemic rats. We performed a calculation showing that application of continuous blood glucose measurement reduces animal numbers needed to detect a given effect in experimental setting by decreasing variability and SD.
Interpretation: Continuous blood glucose monitoring via a telemetry device in pregnant rats provides a more informative picture of the glycemic situation in comparison to single measurements. This could improve diagnosis and therapy of diabetes, decrease animal numbers within experimental settings, and add another physiological parameter (activity) to the analysis that could be helpful in testing therapeutic concepts targeting blood glucose levels and peripheral muscle function. We propose continuous glucose monitoring as a new tool for the evaluation of pregnant diabetic rats.