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Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
Hypofunction of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) has been implicated as a possible mechanism underlying cognitive deficits and aberrant neuronal dynamics in schizophrenia. To test this hypothesis, we first administered a sub-anaesthetic dose of S-ketamine (0.006 mg/kg/min) or saline in a single-blind crossover design in 14 participants while magnetoencephalographic data were recorded during a visual task. In addition, magnetoencephalographic data were obtained in a sample of unmedicated first-episode psychosis patients (n = 10) and in patients with chronic schizophrenia (n = 16) to allow for comparisons of neuronal dynamics in clinical populations versus NMDAR hypofunctioning. Magnetoencephalographic data were analysed at source-level in the 1–90 Hz frequency range in occipital and thalamic regions of interest. In addition, directed functional connectivity analysis was performed using Granger causality and feedback and feedforward activity was investigated using a directed asymmetry index. Psychopathology was assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Acute ketamine administration in healthy volunteers led to similar effects on cognition and psychopathology as observed in first-episode and chronic schizophrenia patients. However, the effects of ketamine on high-frequency oscillations and their connectivity profile were not consistent with these observations. Ketamine increased amplitude and frequency of gamma-power (63–80 Hz) in occipital regions and upregulated low frequency (5–28 Hz) activity. Moreover, ketamine disrupted feedforward and feedback signalling at high and low frequencies leading to hypo- and hyper-connectivity in thalamo-cortical networks. In contrast, first-episode and chronic schizophrenia patients showed a different pattern of magnetoencephalographic activity, characterized by decreased task-induced high-gamma band oscillations and predominantly increased feedforward/feedback-mediated Granger causality connectivity. Accordingly, the current data have implications for theories of cognitive dysfunctions and circuit impairments in the disorder, suggesting that acute NMDAR hypofunction does not recreate alterations in neural oscillations during visual processing observed in schizophrenia.
We examined alterations in E/I-balance in schizophrenia (ScZ) through measurements of resting-state gamma-band activity in participants meeting clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (n = 88), 21 first episode (FEP) patients and 34 chronic ScZ-patients. Furthermore, MRS-data were obtained in CHR-participants and matched controls. Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) resting-state activity was examined at source level and MEG-data were correlated with neuropsychological scores and clinical symptoms. CHR-participants were characterized by increased 64–90 Hz power. In contrast, FEP- and ScZ-patients showed aberrant spectral power at both low- and high gamma-band frequencies. MRS-data showed a shift in E/I-balance toward increased excitation in CHR-participants, which correlated with increased occipital gamma-band power. Finally, neuropsychological deficits and clinical symptoms in FEP and ScZ-patients were correlated with reduced gamma band-activity, while elevated psychotic symptoms in the CHR group showed the opposite relationship. The current study suggests that resting-state gamma-band power and altered Glx/GABA ratio indicate changes in E/I-balance parameters across illness stages in ScZ.