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The efficacy of monetary authority actions depends primarily on the ability of the monetary authority to affect inflation expectations, which ultimately depend on agents' trust. We propose a model embedding trust cycles, as emerging from sequential coordination games between atomistic agents and the policy maker, in a monetary model. Trust affects agents' stochastic discount factor, namely the price of future risk, and their expectation formation process: these effects in turn interact with the monetary transmission mechanism. Using data from the Eurobarometer survey we analyze the link between trust on the one side and the transmission mechanism of shocks and of the policy rate on the other: data show that the two interact significantly and in a way comparable to the obtained in our model.
This paper investigates risk-taking in the liquid portfolios held by a large panel of Swedish twins. We document that the portfolio share invested in risky assets is an increasing and concave function of financial wealth, leading to different risk sensitivities across investors. Human capital, which we estimate directly from individual labor income, also drives risk-taking positively, while internal habit and expenditure commitments tend to reduce it. Our micro findings lend strong support to decreasing relative risk aversion and habit formation preferences. Furthermore, heterogeneous risk sensitivities across investors help reconcile individual preferences with representative-agent models.
We develop a dynamic network model whose links are governed by banks' optmizing decisions and by an endogenous tâtonnement market adjustment. Banks in our model can default and engage in firesales: risk is transmitted through direct and cascading counterparty defaults as well as through indirect pecuniary externalities triggered by firesales. We use the model to assess the evolution of the network configuration under various prudential policy regimes, to measure banks' contribution to systemic risk (through Shapley values) in response to shocks and to analyze the effects of systemic risk charges. We complement the analysis by introducing the possibility of central bank liquidity provision.
This paper analyzes the equilibrium pricing implications of contagion risk in a Lucas-tree economy with recursive preferences and jumps. We introduce a new economic channel allowing for the possibility that endowment shocks simultaneously trigger a regime shift to a bad economic state. We document that these contagious jumps have far-reaching asset pricing implications. The risk premium for such shocks is superadditive, i.e. it is 2.5\% larger than the sum of the risk premia for pure endowment shocks and regime switches. Moreover, contagion risk reduces the risk-free rate by around 0.5\%. We also derive semiclosed-form solutions for the wealth-consumption ratio and the price-dividend ratios in an economy with two Lucas trees and analyze cross-sectional effects of contagion risk qualitatively. We find that heterogeneity among the assets with respect to contagion risk can increase risk premia disproportionately. In particular, big assets with a large exposure to contagious shocks carry significantly higher risk premia.
In Germany, as in almost all industrial countries, active pharmaceutical substances can now be found in virtually all water bodies and occasionally also in drinking water. Even though the concentrations in question tend to be very low, there are initial signs of their impact on aquatic life. There is no evidence as yet of any acute consequences for human health. It is, however, impossible to rule out long-term consequences from these minimal concentrations or unexpected effects from the interaction between various active ingredients (cocktail effect). At special risk here are sensitive segments of the population such as children and the chronically ill. There is thus a need for action on precautionary grounds.
The main actors in the health system are largely unaware of the problem posed by drug residues in water. Although knowledge cannot be equated with awareness – given the existence of the ‘not wanting to know' phenomenon – the first step is to generate a consolidated knowledge base. Only by creating awareness of the problem can further strategies be implemented to ultimately enlighten and bring about behavioural change. At stake here is the overall everyday handling of medications, including prescription, compliance, and drug-free disease prevention down to the doctor-patient relationship. The latter, namely, is often characterised by misunderstandings and a lack of communication about the – supposed – need to prescribe drugs.
The first part of the strategy for the general public involves using various channels and media to address three different target groups. These were identified by ISOE in an empirical survey as reacting differently to the problem under review:
· ‘The Deniers/Relativists'
· ‘The Truth-Seekers'
· ‘The Hypersensitives'
The intention is to address each target group in the right tone and using the most suitable line of reasoning via specific media and with the proper degree of differentiation. The ‘Truth-Seekers' play an opinion-leading role here. They can be provided with highly differentiated information through sophisticated media which they then pass on to their dialogue partners in an appropriate form.
The second part of the strategy for the general public relates to the communication of proper disposal routes for expired drugs. The goal is to confine disposal to pharmacies so that on no account are they flushed down the sink or toilet. Based on an analysis of typical errors in existing communications media on this topic, ISOE prepared recommendations for drafting proper information materials.
In addressing pharmacists, the first priority is to convey hard facts: to this end we propose a PR campaign to place articles in the main specialist media. At the same time, the subject should feature in training and continuing education programmes. Another aim is to strengthen the advisory function of the pharmacies. The environmentally sensitive target group would indeed react positively to having their attention drawn to the issue of drug residues in water. For all other customers, the pharmacists can and should act as consultants: they emphasise how important it is to take medication as instructed (compliance) and use suitable pack sizes, and warn older customers in particular about the potential hazards of improper drug intake.
The first stage of the communications strategy for doctors likewise revolves around knowledge. Here, however, it is important to take into account their self-image as scientists while in fact having little grasp of this specific area. The line to take is that of ‘discursive selfenlightenment'. This means that the issue of drug residues in water cannot be conveyed to doctors by laymen but must be taken up and imparted via the major media of the medical profession and by medical association officials (top-down).
The second stage, namely that of raising doctors’ awareness of the problem, is likely to encounter strong resistance from some of the medical profession. They may fear a threat of interference in treatment plans from an environmental perspective and feel the need to emphasise that doctors are not responsible for environmental issues. As shown in empirical surveys by ISOE, such a defensive reaction is ultimately down to an underlying taboo: people are loath to discuss the over-prescription taking place in countless doctors' surgeries. And it is a fact that this problem cannot be tackled from the environmental perspective, although the goals of water protection are indeed consistent with the economic objectives of restraint in the deployment of drugs. Any communications measure for this target group has to bear in mind that doctors feel restricted by what they see as a ‘perpetual health reform' no matter which government is in power. On no account are they prepared to tolerate any new form of regulation, in this case for environmental reasons.
An entirely different view of the problem is taken by ‘critical doctors' such as specialists in environmental health and those with a naturopathic focus. They are interested in the problem because they see a connection between the quality of our environment and our health. What is more, they have patients keen to be prescribed as few drugs as possible and who are instead interested in ‘talking medicine'. So, any communication strategy intent on tackling the difficult problem of oversubscribing drugs needs to look carefully at the experiences of these medical professionals and also at a ‘bottom-up strategy'.
Implementation of strategic communications should be entrusted to an agency with experience in ‘issue management'. Knowledge of social marketing and the influencing of behaviour are further prerequisites. All important decisions should be taken by a consensus committee (‘MeriWa'1 round table), in which the medical profession, pharmacists and consumers are represented.
Das hier vorgelegte Eckpunktepapier befasst sich mit den Zukunftsperspektiven der deutschen Wasserwirtschaft hinsichtlich ihrer Produkte und Konzepte. Ausgehend von schwierigen Herausforderungen für die globale Wasserwirtschaft legt es dar, wie die deutsche Wasserwirtschaft diesen Herausforderungen gegenübersteht und zeigt auf, welche Maßnahmen zu ergreifen sind, um die wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven der deutschen Wasserwirtschaft dauerhaft zu verbessern. Die Abschnitte 1-5 erläutern die Ausgangslage der deutschen Wasserwirtschaft, beschreiben sich neu stellende Herausforderungen und ordnen in diesen Zusammenhang das BMBF-Verbundprojekt „Wasser 2050“ ein, in dem diese Eckpunkte und Empfehlungen erarbeitet wurden. Die Abschnitte 6-10 wenden sich dann im Einzelnen zu ergreifenden Strategien und Ansätzen zu, die dazu beitragen, die Wettbewerbsposition der deutschen Wasserwirtschaft nachhaltig zu entwickeln. Der abschließende Abschnitt 11 fasst die Empfehlungen des Projekts zusammen.
Seit über 30 Jahren steht der Blaue Engel für besonders umweltfreundliche Produkte und Dienstleistungen. Damit ist er das älteste Umweltschutzzeichen in Deutschland. In den vergangenen Jahren wurden das Produktportfolio des Blauen Engel neu ausgerichtet und die Darstellung des Zeichens modernisiert. Seit 2008 ist der Blaue Engel auch das offizielle Klimaschutzzeichen der Bundesregierung. Regelmäßige empirische Umfragen zeigen, dass der Blaue Engel eine hohe Bekanntheit in der Bevölkerung besitzt. Über ein Drittel der Konsumentinnen und Konsumenten nutzen das Umweltzeichen als Orientierung beim Einkauf. Anders als vor 30 Jahren, muss sich der Blaue Engel heute in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung in einer Flut von Umwelt- und Nachhaltigkeitszeichen behaupten.
Dieser Studientext präsentiert die Ergebnisse einer empirischen Befragung von Verbraucherinnen und Verbrauchern zu Wahrnehmung und Akzeptanz des Blauen Engel, die das ISOE für das Umweltbundesamt durchgeführt hat. In einer bundesweiten Online-Erhebung wurden 2.034 Personen befragt. Ergänzend erfolgte eine vertiefende qualitative Befragung mit Hilfe von Fokusgruppen. Die Befunde liefern wichtige Erkenntnisse darüber, wofür der Blaue Engel in den Augen der KonsumentInnen steht und wie er im Kontext anderer Label wahrgenommen wird. Darüberhinaus wird deutlich, welche Erwartungen aus Verbrauchersicht mit diesem Zeichen verbunden sind und welche Produkte und Produktgruppen mit ihm assoziiert werden.
This paper presents a theory that explains why it is beneficial for banks to engage in circular lending activities on the interbank market. Using a simple network structure, it shows that if there is a non-zero bailout probability, banks can significantly increase the expected repayment of uninsured creditors by entering into cyclical liabilities on the interbank market before investing in loan portfolios. Therefore, banks are better able to attract funds from uninsured creditors. Our results show that implicit government guarantees incentivize banks to have large interbank exposures, to be highly interconnected, and to invest in highly correlated, risky portfolios. This can serve as an explanation for the observed high interconnectedness between banks and their investment behavior in the run-up to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Basel III and CEO compensation in banks: pay structures as a regulatory signal : [March 6, 2013]
(2013)
This paper proposes a new regulatory approach that implements capital requirements contingent on managerial compensation. We argue that excessive risk taking in the financial sector originates from the shareholder moral hazard created by government guarantees rather than from corporate governance failures within banks. The idea of the proposed regulation is to utilize the compensation scheme to drive a wedge between the interests of top management and shareholders to counteract shareholder risk-shifting incentives. The decisive advantage of this approach compared to existing regulation is that the regulator does not need to be able to properly measure the bank investment risk, which has been shown to be a difficult task during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.