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Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 genetic diversity modulates response to lithium in bipolar affective disorders
(2021)
Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe psychiatric illness, for which lithium (Li) is the gold standard for acute and maintenance therapies. The therapeutic response to Li in BD is heterogeneous and reliable biomarkers allowing patients stratification are still needed. A GWAS performed by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) has recently identified genetic markers associated with treatment responses to Li in the human leukocyte antigens (HLA) region. To better understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this association, we have genetically imputed the classical alleles of the HLA region in the European patients of the ConLiGen cohort. We found our best signal for amino-acid variants belonging to the HLA-DRB1*11:01 classical allele, associated with a better response to Li (p < 1 × 10−3; FDR < 0.09 in the recessive model). Alanine or Leucine at position 74 of the HLA-DRB1 heavy chain was associated with a good response while Arginine or Glutamic acid with a poor response. As these variants have been implicated in common inflammatory/autoimmune processes, our findings strongly suggest that HLA-mediated low inflammatory background may contribute to the efficient response to Li in BD patients, while an inflammatory status overriding Li anti-inflammatory properties would favor a weak response.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a heritable mental illness with complex etiology. While the largest published genome-wide association study identified 64 BD risk loci, the causal SNPs and genes within these loci remain unknown. We applied a suite of statistical and functional fine-mapping methods to these loci, and prioritized 22 likely causal SNPs for BD. We mapped these SNPs to genes, and investigated their likely functional consequences by integrating variant annotations, brain cell-type epigenomic annotations, brain quantitative trait loci, and results from rare variant exome sequencing in BD. Convergent lines of evidence supported the roles of SCN2A, TRANK1, DCLK3, INSYN2B, SYNE1, THSD7A, CACNA1B, TUBBP5, PLCB3, PRDX5, KCNK4, AP001453.3, TRPT1, FKBP2, DNAJC4, RASGRP1, FURIN, FES, YWHAE, DPH1, GSDMB, MED24, THRA, EEF1A2, and KCNQ2 in BD. These represent promising candidates for functional experiments to understand biological mechanisms and therapeutic potential. Additionally, we demonstrated that fine-mapping effect sizes can improve performance and transferability of BD polygenic risk scores across ancestrally diverse populations, and present a high-throughput fine-mapping pipeline (https://github.com/mkoromina/SAFFARI).