The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

  • We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. Finally, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences.

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Author:Andrew Levin, Volker WielandORCiDGND, John C. Williams
Parent Title (German):Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2003,06
Series (Serial Number):CFS working paper series (2003, 06)
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2003
Year of first Publication:2003
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2005/06/13
Tag:inflation forecast targeting; optimal monetary policy
GND Keyword:Geldpolitik
Institutes:Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht