Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models

  • The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.

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Author:James A. AnsteyORCiD, Isla R. SimpsonORCiD, Jadwiga H. RichterORCiD, Hiroaki NaoeORCiD, Masakazu TaguchiORCiD, Federico ServaORCiD, Lesley J. GrayORCiD, Neal Butchart, Kevin HamiltonORCiDGND, Scott OspreyORCiD, Omar BellpratORCiD, Peter BraesickeGND, Andrew C. Bushell, Chiara CagnazzoORCiD, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Rolando R. Garcia, Laura HoltORCiD, Yoshio KawataniORCiD, Tobias KerzenmacherORCiD, Young-Ha KimORCiD, Francois LottORCiD, C. McLandressGND, John Scinocca, Timothy N. StockdaleORCiD, Stefan VersickORCiDGND, Shingo WatanabeORCiD, Kohei YoshidaORCiD, Seiji YukimotoORCiD
Parent Title (English):Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Place of publication:Weinheim [u.a.]
Document Type:Article
Date of Publication (online):2021/05/04
Date of first Publication:2021/05/04
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2023/04/27
Tag:North Atlantic Oscillation; Quasi-Biennial Oscillation; polar vortex; seasonal forecasting; stratosphere; stratosphere–troposphere coupling; teleconnection
Page Number:25
First Page:1568
Last Page:1592
This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590.
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International