Party effects on total and disaggregated welfare spending : a mixed-effects approach

  • Welfare is the largest expenditure category in all advanced democracies. Consequently, much literature has studied partisan effects on total and policy-specific welfare expenditure. Yet, these results cannot be trusted: The methodological standard is to apply time-series cross-section-regressions to annual observation data. But governments hardly change annually. Thus, the number of observations is artificially inflated, leading to incorrect estimates. While this problem has recently been acknowledged, it has not been convincingly resolved. We propose Mixed-Effects Models as a solution, which allow decomposing variance into different levels and permit complex cross-classification data structures. We argue that Mixed-Effects models combine the strengths of existing methodological approaches while alleviating their weaknesses. Empirically, we study partisan effects on total and on disaggregated expenditure in 23 OECD-countries, 1960-2012, using several measures of party preferences.

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Author:Julian L. GarritzmannORCiDGND, Kilian Seng
Document Type:Preprint
Date of Publication (online):2019/11/12
Date of first Publication:2019/11/12
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2023/05/31
Edition:Peer reviewed version
Page Number:40
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: GARRITZMANN, J.L. and SENG, K. (2020), Party effects on total and disaggregated welfare spending: A mixed-effects approach. European Journal of Political Research, 59: 624-645., which has been published in final form at
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Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 32 Politikwissenschaft / 320 Politikwissenschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht