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Objective To explore factors that potentially impact external validation performance while developing and validating a prognostic model for hospital admissions (HAs) in complex older general practice patients.
Study design and setting Using individual participant data from four cluster-randomised trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany, we used logistic regression to develop a prognostic model to predict all-cause HAs within a 6-month follow-up period. A stratified intercept was used to account for heterogeneity in baseline risk between the studies. The model was validated both internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV).
Results Prior HAs, physical components of the health-related quality of life comorbidity index, and medication-related variables were used in the final model. While achieving moderate discriminatory performance, internal bootstrap validation revealed a pronounced risk of overfitting. The results of the IECV, in which calibration was highly variable even after accounting for between-study heterogeneity, agreed with this finding. Heterogeneity was equally reflected in differing baseline risk, predictor effects and absolute risk predictions.
Conclusions Predictor effect heterogeneity and differing baseline risk can explain the limited external performance of HA prediction models. With such drivers known, model adjustments in external validation settings (eg, intercept recalibration, complete updating) can be applied more purposefully.
Trial registration number PROSPERO id: CRD42018088129.
Background Parkinson's disease (PD) is an adult-onset movement disorder of largely unknown etiology. We have previously shown that loss-of-function mutations of the mitochondrial protein kinase PINK1 (PTEN induced putative kinase 1) cause the recessive PARK6 variant of PD. Methodology/Principal Findings Now we generated a PINK1 deficient mouse and observed several novel phenotypes: A progressive reduction of weight and of locomotor activity selectively for spontaneous movements occurred at old age. As in PD, abnormal dopamine levels in the aged nigrostriatal projection accompanied the reduced movements. Possibly in line with the PARK6 syndrome but in contrast to sporadic PD, a reduced lifespan, dysfunction of brainstem and sympathetic nerves, visible aggregates of alpha-synuclein within Lewy bodies or nigrostriatal neurodegeneration were not present in aged PINK1-deficient mice. However, we demonstrate PINK1 mutant mice to exhibit a progressive reduction in mitochondrial preprotein import correlating with defects of core mitochondrial functions like ATP-generation and respiration. In contrast to the strong effect of PINK1 on mitochondrial dynamics in Drosophila melanogaster and in spite of reduced expression of fission factor Mtp18, we show reduced fission and increased aggregation of mitochondria only under stress in PINK1-deficient mouse neurons. Conclusion Thus, aging Pink1 -/- mice show increasing mitochondrial dysfunction resulting in impaired neural activity similar to PD, in absence of overt neuronal death.
Aim: Reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by enzymes of the NADPH oxidase family serve as second messengers for cellular signaling. Processes such as differentiation and proliferation are regulated by NADPH oxidases. In the intestine, due to the exceedingly fast and constant renewal of the epithelium both processes have to be highly controlled and balanced. Nox1 is the major NADPH oxidase expressed in the gut, and its function is regulated by cytosolic subunits such as NoxO1. We hypothesize that the NoxO1-controlled activity of Nox1 contributes to a proper epithelial homeostasis and renewal in the gut.
Results: NoxO1 is highly expressed in the colon. Knockout of NoxO1 reduces the production of superoxide in colon crypts and is not subsidized by an elevated expression of its homolog p47phox. Knockout of NoxO1 increases the proliferative capacity and prevents apoptosis of colon epithelial cells. In mouse models of dextran sulfate sodium (DSS)-induced colitis and azoxymethane/DSS induced colon cancer, NoxO1 has a protective role and may influence the population of natural killer cells.
Conclusion: NoxO1 affects colon epithelium homeostasis and prevents inflammation.
Background: Cumulative anticholinergic exposure, also known as anticholinergic burden, is associated with a variety of adverse outcomes. However, studies show that anticholinergic effects tend to be underestimated by prescribers, and anticholinergics are the most frequently prescribed potentially inappropriate medication in older patients. The grading systems and drugs included in existing scales to quantify anticholinergic burden differ considerably and do not adequately account for patients’ susceptibility to medications. Furthermore, their ability to link anticholinergic burden with adverse outcomes such as falls is unclear. This study aims to develop a prognostic model that predicts falls in older general practice patients, to assess the performance of several anticholinergic burden scales, and to quantify the added predictive value of anticholinergic symptoms in this context.
Methods: Data from two cluster-randomized controlled trials investigating medication optimization in older general practice patients in Germany will be used. One trial (RIME, n = 1,197) will be used for the model development and the other trial (PRIMUM, n = 502) will be used to externally validate the model. A priori, candidate predictors will be selected based on a literature search, predictor availability, and clinical reasoning. Candidate predictors will include socio-demographics (e.g. age, sex), morbidity (e.g. single conditions), medication (e.g. polypharmacy, anticholinergic burden as defined by scales), and well-being (e.g. quality of life, physical function). A prognostic model including sociodemographic and lifestyle-related factors, as well as variables on morbidity, medication, health status, and well-being, will be developed, whereby the prognostic value of extending the model to include additional patient-reported symptoms will be also assessed. Logistic regression will be used for the binary outcome, which will be defined as “no falls” vs. “≥1 fall” within six months of baseline, as reported in patient interviews. Discussion: As the ability of different anticholinergic burden scales to predict falls in older patients is unclear, this study may provide insights into their relative importance as well as into the overall contribution of anticholinergic symptoms and other patient characteristics. The results may support general practitioners in their clinical decision-making and in prescribing fewer medications with anticholinergic properties.
Crista junctions (CJs) are tubular invaginations of the inner membrane of mitochondria that connect the inner boundary with the cristae membrane. These architectural elements are critical for mitochondrial function. The yeast inner membrane protein Fcj1, called mitofilin in mammals, was reported to be preferentially located at CJs and crucial for their formation. Here we investigate the functional roles of individual domains of Fcj1. The most conserved part of Fcj1, the C-terminal domain, is essential for Fcj1 function. In its absence, formation of CJ is strongly impaired and irregular, and stacked cristae are present. This domain interacts with full-length Fcj1, suggesting a role in oligomer formation. It also interacts with Tob55 of the translocase of outer membrane β-barrel proteins (TOB)/sorting and assembly machinery (SAM) complex, which is required for the insertion of β-barrel proteins into the outer membrane. The association of the TOB/SAM complex with contact sites depends on the presence of Fcj1. The biogenesis of β-barrel proteins is not significantly affected in the absence of Fcj1. However, down-regulation of the TOB/SAM complex leads to altered cristae morphology and a moderate reduction in the number of CJs. We propose that the C-terminal domain of Fcj1 is critical for the interaction of Fcj1 with the TOB/SAM complex and thereby for stabilizing CJs in close proximity to the outer membrane. These results assign novel functions to both the C-terminal domain of Fcj1 and the TOB/SAM complex.
Background: MicroRNA-21 (miR-21) is up-regulated in tumor tissue of patients with malignant diseases, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Elevated concentrations of miR-21 have also been found in sera or plasma from patients with malignancies, rendering it an interesting candidate as serum/plasma marker for malignancies. Here we correlated serum miR-21 levels with clinical parameters in patients with different stages of chronic hepatitis C virus infection (CHC) and CHC-associated HCC.
Methodology/Principal Findings: 62 CHC patients, 29 patients with CHC and HCC and 19 healthy controls were prospectively enrolled. RNA was extracted from the sera and miR-21 as well as miR-16 levels were analyzed by quantitative real-time PCR; miR-21 levels (normalized by miR-16) were correlated with standard liver parameters, histological grading and staging of CHC. The data show that serum levels of miR-21 were elevated in patients with CHC compared to healthy controls (P<0.001); there was no difference between serum miR-21 in patients with CHC and CHC-associated HCC. Serum miR-21 levels correlated with histological activity index (HAI) in the liver (r = −0.494, P = 0.00002), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (r = −0.309, P = 0.007), aspartate aminotransferase (r = −0.495, P = 0.000007), bilirubin (r = −0.362, P = 0.002), international normalized ratio (r = −0.338, P = 0.034) and γ-glutamyltransferase (r = −0.244, P = 0.034). Multivariate analysis revealed that ALT and miR-21 serum levels were independently associated with HAI. At a cut-off dCT of 1.96, miR-21 discriminated between minimal and mild-severe necroinflammation (AUC = 0.758) with a sensitivity of 53.3% and a specificity of 95.2%.
Conclusions/Significance: The serum miR-21 level is a marker for necroinflammatory activity, but does not differ between patients with HCV and HCV-induced HCC.
Endothelium-dependent vasodilation is thought to be mediated primarily by the NO/cGMP signaling pathway whereas cAMP-elevating vasodilators are considered to act independent of the endothelial cell layer. However, recent functional data suggest that cAMP-elevating vasodilators such as β-receptor agonists, adenosine or forskolin may also be endothelium-dependent. Here we used functional and biochemical assays to analyze endothelium-dependent, cGMP- and cAMP-mediated signaling in rat aorta. Acetylcholine and sodium nitroprusside (SNP) induced a concentration-dependent relaxation of phenylephrine-precontracted aorta. This response was reflected by the phosphorylation of the vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein (VASP), a validated substrate of cGMP- and cAMP-dependent protein kinases (cGK, cAK), on Ser157 and Ser239. As expected, the effects of acetylcholine were endothelium-dependent. However, relaxation induced by the β-receptor agonist isoproterenol was also almost completely impaired after endothelial denudation. At the biochemical level, acetylcholine- and isoproterenol-evoked cGK and cAK activation, respectively, as measured by VASP Ser239 and Ser157 phosphorylation, was strongly diminished. Furthermore, the effects of isoproterenol were repressed by eNOS inhibition when endothelium was present. We also observed that the relaxing and biochemical effects of forskolin were at least partially endothelium-dependent. We conclude that cAMP-elevating vasodilators, i.e. isoproterenol and to a lesser extent also forskolin, induce vasodilation and concomitant cyclic nucleotide protein kinase activation in the vessel wall in an endothelium-dependent way.
Crista junctions (CJs) are important for mitochondrial organization and function, but the molecular basis of their formation and architecture is obscure. We have identified and characterized a mitochondrial membrane protein in yeast, Fcj1 (formation of CJ protein 1), which is specifically enriched in CJs. Cells lacking Fcj1 lack CJs, exhibit concentric stacks of inner membrane in the mitochondrial matrix, and show increased levels of F1FO–ATP synthase (F1FO) supercomplexes. Overexpression of Fcj1 leads to increased CJ formation, branching of cristae, enlargement of CJ diameter, and reduced levels of F1FO supercomplexes. Impairment of F1FO oligomer formation by deletion of its subunits e/g (Su e/g) causes CJ diameter enlargement and reduction of cristae tip numbers and promotes cristae branching. Fcj1 and Su e/g genetically interact. We propose a model in which the antagonism between Fcj1 and Su e/g locally modulates the F1FO oligomeric state, thereby controlling membrane curvature of cristae to generate CJs and cristae tips.
Aim: NADPH oxidases are important sources of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Several Nox homologues are present together in the vascular system but whether they exhibit crosstalk at the activity level is unknown. To address this, vessel function of knockout mice for the cytosolic Nox organizer proteins p47phox, NoxO1 and a p47phox-NoxO1-double knockout were studied under normal condition and during streptozotocin-induced diabetes.
Results: In the mouse aorta, mRNA expression for NoxO1 was predominant in smooth muscle and endothelial cells, whereas p47phox was markedly expressed in adventitial cells comprising leukocytes and tissue resident macrophages. Knockout of either NoxO1 or p47phox resulted in lower basal blood pressure. Deletion of any of the two subunits also prevented diabetes-induced vascular dysfunction. mRNA expression analysis by MACE (Massive Analysis of cDNA ends) identified substantial gene expression differences between the mouse lines and in response to diabetes. Deletion of p47phox induced inflammatory activation with increased markers of myeloid cells and cytokine and chemokine induction. In contrast, deletion of NoxO1 resulted in an attenuated interferon gamma signature and reduced expression of genes related to antigen presentation. This aspect was also reflected by a reduced number of circulating lymphocytes in NoxO1-/- mice.
Innovation and conclusion: ROS production stimulated by NoxO1 and p47phox limit endothelium-dependent relaxation and maintain blood pressure in mice. However, NoxO1 and p47phox cannot substitute each other despite their similar effect on vascular function. Deletion of NoxO1 induced an anti-inflammatory phenotype, whereas p47phox deletion rather elicited a hyper-inflammatory response.
We analyze the market reaction to the sentiment of the CEO speech at the Annual General Meeting (AGM). As the AGM is typically preceded by several information disclosures, the CEO speech may be expected to contribute only marginally to investors’ decision-making. Surprisingly, however, we observe from the transcripts of 338 CEO speeches of German corporates between 2008 and 2016 that their sentiment is significantly related to abnormal stock returns and trading volumes following the AGM. Using a novel business-specific German dictionary based on Loughran and McDonald (2011), we find a negative association of the post-AGM returns with the speeches’ negativity and a positive association with the speeches’ relative positivity (i.e. positivity relative to negativity). Relative positivity moreover corresponds with a lower trading volume in a short time window surrounding the AGM. Investors hence seem to perceive the sentiment of CEO speeches at AGMs as a valuable indicator of future firm performance.
We analyze the market reaction to the sentiment of the CEO speech at the Annual General Meeting (AGM). As the AGM is typically preceded by several information disclosures, the CEO speech may be expected to contribute only marginally to investors’ decision making. Surprisingly, however, we observe from the transcripts of 338 CEO speeches of German corporates between 2008 and 2016 that their sentiment is significantly related to abnormal stock returns and trading volume around the AGM. By adapting a finance-specific German dictionary based on Loughran and McDonald (2011), we find a negative association of the post-AGM returns with the speeches’ negativity and a positive association with the speeches’ relative positivity (i.e. positivity relative to negativity). Relative positivity moreover corresponds with a lower trading volume around the AGM. Investors hence seem to perceive the sentiment of CEO speeches at AGMs as a valuable indicator of future firm performance. Our results are robust against different weighting schemes and our dictionary appears to be better suited to grasp the sentiment of German business documents compared to general dictionaries.
Comparative proteomics reveals a diagnostic signature for pulmonary head‐and‐neck cancer metastasis
(2018)
Patients with head‐and‐neck cancer can develop both lung metastasis and primary lung cancer during the course of their disease. Despite the clinical importance of discrimination, reliable diagnostic biomarkers are still lacking. Here, we have characterised a cohort of squamous cell lung (SQCLC) and head‐and‐neck (HNSCC) carcinomas by quantitative proteomics. In a training cohort, we quantified 4,957 proteins in 44 SQCLC and 30 HNSCC tumours. A total of 518 proteins were found to be differentially expressed between SQCLC and HNSCC, and some of these were identified as genetic dependencies in either of the two tumour types. Using supervised machine learning, we inferred a proteomic signature for the classification of squamous cell carcinomas as either SQCLC or HNSCC, with diagnostic accuracies of 90.5% and 86.8% in cross‐ and independent validations, respectively. Furthermore, application of this signature to a cohort of pulmonary squamous cell carcinomas of unknown origin leads to a significant prognostic separation. This study not only provides a diagnostic proteomic signature for classification of secondary lung tumours in HNSCC patients, but also represents a proteomic resource for HNSCC and SQCLC.
Plants, fungi and algae are important components of global biodiversity and are fundamental to all ecosystems. They are the basis for human well-being, providing food, materials and medicines. Specimens of all three groups of organisms are accommodated in herbaria, where they are commonly referred to as botanical specimens.The large number of specimens in herbaria provides an ample, permanent and continuously improving knowledge base on these organisms and an indispensable source for the analysis of the distribution of species in space and time critical for current and future research relating to global biodiversity. In order to make full use of this resource, a research infrastructure has to be built that grants comprehensive and free access to the information in herbaria and botanical collections in general. This can be achieved through digitization of the botanical objects and associated data.The botanical research community can count on a long-standing tradition of collaboration among institutions and individuals. It agreed on data standards and standard services even before the advent of computerization and information networking, an example being the Index Herbariorum as a global registry of herbaria helping towards the unique identification of specimens cited in the literature.In the spirit of this collaborative history, 51 representatives from 30 institutions advocate to start the digitization of botanical collections with the overall wall-to-wall digitization of the flat objects stored in German herbaria. Germany has 70 herbaria holding almost 23 million specimens according to a national survey carried out in 2019. 87% of these specimens are not yet digitized. Experiences from other countries like France, the Netherlands, Finland, the US and Australia show that herbaria can be comprehensively and cost-efficiently digitized in a relatively short time due to established workflows and protocols for the high-throughput digitization of flat objects.Most of the herbaria are part of a university (34), fewer belong to municipal museums (10) or state museums (8), six herbaria belong to institutions also supported by federal funds such as Leibniz institutes, and four belong to non-governmental organizations. A common data infrastructure must therefore integrate different kinds of institutions.Making full use of the data gained by digitization requires the set-up of a digital infrastructure for storage, archiving, content indexing and networking as well as standardized access for the scientific use of digital objects. A standards-based portfolio of technical components has already been developed and successfully tested by the Biodiversity Informatics Community over the last two decades, comprising among others access protocols, collection databases, portals, tools for semantic enrichment and annotation, international networking, storage and archiving in accordance with international standards. This was achieved through the funding by national and international programs and initiatives, which also paved the road for the German contribution to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).Herbaria constitute a large part of the German botanical collections that also comprise living collections in botanical gardens and seed banks, DNA- and tissue samples, specimens preserved in fluids or on microscope slides and more. Once the herbaria are digitized, these resources can be integrated, adding to the value of the overall research infrastructure. The community has agreed on tasks that are shared between the herbaria, as the German GBIF model already successfully demonstrates.We have compiled nine scientific use cases of immediate societal relevance for an integrated infrastructure of botanical collections. They address accelerated biodiversity discovery and research, biomonitoring and conservation planning, biodiversity modelling, the generation of trait information, automated image recognition by artificial intelligence, automated pathogen detection, contextualization by interlinking objects, enabling provenance research, as well as education, outreach and citizen science.We propose to start this initiative now in order to valorize German botanical collections as a vital part of a worldwide biodiversity data pool.
This paper reports on Monte Carlo simulation results for future measurements of the moduli of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors, |GE | and |GM|, using the ¯pp → μ+μ− reaction at PANDA (FAIR). The electromagnetic form factors are fundamental quantities parameterizing the electric and magnetic structure of hadrons. This work estimates the statistical and total accuracy with which the form factors can be measured at PANDA, using an analysis of simulated data within the PandaRoot software framework. The most crucial background channel is ¯pp → π+π−,due to the very similar behavior of muons and pions in the detector. The suppression factors are evaluated for this and all other relevant background channels at different values of antiproton beam momentum. The signal/background separation is based on a multivariate analysis, using the Boosted Decision Trees method. An expected background subtraction is included in this study, based on realistic angular distribuations of the background contribution. Systematic uncertainties are considered and the relative total uncertainties of the form factor measurements are presented.
Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is the most frequent subtype of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), and the incidence has globally increased in recent years. In contrast to surgically treated iCCA, data on the impact of fibrosis on survival in patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy are missing. We retrospectively analyzed the cases of 70 patients diagnosed with iCCA between 2007 and 2020 in our tertiary hospital. Histopathological assessment of fibrosis was performed by an expert hepatobiliary pathologist. Additionally, the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) was calculated as a non-invasive surrogate marker for liver fibrosis. For overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox-regression analyses were performed. Subgroup analyses revealed a median OS of 21 months (95% CI = 16.7–25.2 months) and 16 months (95% CI = 7.6–24.4 months) for low and high fibrosis, respectively (p = 0.152). In non-cirrhotic patients, the median OS was 21.8 months (95% CI = 17.1–26.4 months), compared with 9.5 months (95% CI = 4.6–14.3 months) in cirrhotic patients (p = 0.007). In conclusion, patients with iCCA and cirrhosis receiving palliative chemotherapy have decreased OS rates, while fibrosis has no significant impact on OS or PFS. These patients should not be prevented from state-of-the-art first-line chemotherapy.
Resilience has been defined as the maintenance or quick recovery of mental health during and after times of adversity. How to operationalize resilience and to determine the factors and processes that lead to good long-term mental health outcomes in stressor-exposed individuals is a matter of ongoing debate and of critical importance for the advancement of the field. One of the biggest challenges for implementing an outcome-based definition of resilience in longitudinal observational study designs lies in the fact that real-life adversity is usually unpredictable and that its substantial qualitative as well as temporal variability between subjects often precludes defining circumscribed time windows of inter-individually comparable stressor exposure relative to which the maintenance or recovery of mental health can be determined. To address this pertinent issue, we propose to frequently and regularly monitor stressor exposure (E) and mental health problems (P) throughout a study's observation period [Frequent Stressor and Mental Health Monitoring (FRESHMO)-paradigm]. On this basis, a subject's deviation at any single monitoring time point from the study sample's normative E–P relationship (the regression residual) can be used to calculate that subject's current mental health reactivity to stressor exposure (“stressor reactivity,” SR). The SR score takes into account the individual extent of experienced adversity and is comparable between and within subjects. Individual SR time courses across monitoring time points reflect intra-individual temporal variability in SR, where periods of under-reactivity (negative SR score) are associated with accumulation of fewer mental health problems than is normal for the sample. If FRESHMO is accompanied by regular measurement of potential resilience factors, temporal changes in resilience factors can be used to predict SR time courses. An increase in a resilience factor measurement explaining a lagged decrease in SR can then be considered to index a process of adaptation to stressor exposure that promotes a resilient outcome (an allostatic resilience process). This design principle allows resilience research to move beyond merely determining baseline predictors of resilience outcomes, which cannot inform about how individuals successfully adjust and adapt when confronted with adversity. Hence, FRESHMO plus regular resilience factor monitoring incorporates a dynamic-systems perspective into resilience research.
The microscopic phasespace approach URQMD is used to investigate the stopping power and particle production in heavy systems at SPS and RHIC energies. We find no gap in the baryon rapidity distribution even at RHIC. For CERN energies URQMD shows a pile up of baryons and a supression of multi-nucleon clusters at midrapidity.
Dilepton spectra for p+p and p+d reactions at 4.9GeV are calculated. We consider electromagnetic bremsstrahlung also in inelastic reactions. N* and Delta* decay present the major contributions to the pho and omega meson yields.Pion annihilation yields only 1.5% of all pho's in p+d. The pho mass spectrum is strongly distorted due to phase space effects, populating dominantly dilepton masses below 770MeV.
We study dilepton production from a quark-gluon plasma of given energy density at finite quark chemical potential μ and find that the dilepton production rate is a strongly decreasing function of μ. Therefore, the signal to background ratio of dileptons from a plasma created in a heavy-ion collision may decrease significantly.