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During the first two days of August 2016 a seismic crisis occurred on Brava, Cape Verde, which – according to observations based on a local seismic network – was characterized by more than thousand volcano–seismic signals. Brava is considered an active volcanic island, although it has not experienced any historic eruptions. Seismicity significantly exceeded the usual level during the crisis. We report on results based on data from a temporary seismic–array deployment on the neighbouring island of Fogo at a distance of about 35 km. The array was in operation from October 2015 to December 2016 and recorded a total of 1343 earthquakes, 355 thereof were localized. On 1 and 2 August we observed 54 earthquakes, 25 of which could be located beneath Brava. We further evaluate the observations with regards to possible precursors to the crisis and its continuation. Our analysis shows a migration of seismicity around Brava, but no distinct precursory pattern. However, the observations suggest that similar earthquake swarms commonly occur close to Brava. The results further confirm the advantages of seismic arrays as tools for the remote monitoring of regions with limited station coverage or access.
During the first two days of August 2016 a seismic crisis occurred on Brava, Cabo Verde, which – according to observations based on a local seismic network – was characterized by more than a thousand volcano-seismic signals. Brava is considered an active volcanic island, although it has not experienced any historic eruptions. Seismicity significantly exceeded the usual level during the crisis. We report on results based on data from a temporary seismic-array deployment on the neighbouring island of Fogo at a distance of about 35 km. The array was in operation from October 2015 to December 2016 and recorded a total of 1343 earthquakes in the region of Fogo and Brava; 355 thereof were localized. On 1 and 2 August we observed 54 earthquakes, 25 of which could be located beneath Brava. We further evaluate the observations with regards to possible precursors to the crisis and its continuation. Our analysis shows a significant variation in seismicity around Brava, but no distinct precursory pattern. However, the observations suggest that similar earthquake swarms commonly occur close to Brava. The results further confirm the advantages of seismic arrays as tools for the remote monitoring of regions with limited station coverage or access.
Rodrigues Ridge connects the Réunion hotspot track with the Central Indian Ridge (CIR) and has been suggested to represent the surface expression of a sub-lithospheric flow channel. From global earthquake catalogues, the seismicity in the region has been associated mainly with events related to the fracture zones at the CIR. However, some segments of the CIR appear void of seismic events. Here, we report on the seismicity recorded at a temporary array of 10 seismic stations operating on Rodrigues Island from September 2014 to June 2016. The array analysis was performed in the time domain by time shifting and stacking the complete waveforms. Event distances were estimated based on a 1-D velocity model and the travel time differences between S and P wave arrivals. We detected and located 63 new events that were not reported by the global networks. Most of the events (51) are located off the CIR and can be classified as intraplate earthquakes. Local magnitudes varied between 1.6 and 3.7. Four seismic clusters were observed that occurred to the west of the spreading segment of the CIR. The Rodrigues Ridge appeared to be aseismic during the period of operation. The lack of seismic activity along both Rodrigues Ridge and the sections of the CIR to the east of Rodrigues may be explained by partially molten upper-mantle material, possibly in relation to the proposed material flow between the Réunion plume and the CIR.
Tetra-auricupride, ideally AuCu, represents the only species showing the coexistence of Au with an elevated level of Pt, as in the case of a detrital grain studied structurally for the first time, from an ophiolite-associated placer at Bolshoy Khailyk, western Sayans, Russia. We infer that tetra-auricupride can incorporate as much as ~30 mol. % of a “PtCu” component, apparently without significant modification of the unit cell. The unit-cell parameters of platiniferous tetra-auricupride are: a 2.790(1) Å, c 3.641(4) Å, with c/a = 1.305, which are close to those reported for ordered AuCu(I) in the system Au–Cu, and close also to the cell parameters of tetraferroplatinum (PtFe), which both appear to crystallize in the same space group, P4/mmm. These intermetallic compounds and natural alloys are thus isostructural. The closeness of their structures presumably allows Pt to replace Au atoms so readily. The high extent of Cu + Au enrichment is considered to be a reflection of geochemical evolution and buildup in levels of the incompatible Cu and Au with subordinate Pt in a remaining volume of melt at low levels of fO2 and fS2 in the system.
In the nineteenth century, two Neolithic axe-heads were reported from the Michelsberg enclosure system at Kapellenberg. The recent identification of an unusually large tumulus, from which the axe-heads were almost certainly once recovered, reveals that socio-political hierarchisation, linked to the emergence of high-ranking elites in Brittany and the Paris Basin during the fifth millennium cal BC, may have extended into Central Europe.
Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man‐made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low‐income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
In November 2016, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected at the Ceboruco Volcano in cooperation with the Centro de Sismología y Volcanología de Occidente (SisVoc, Universidad de Guadalajara, Mexico). The Ceboruco is a 2280 m high stratovolcano, located in Nayarit State, Mexico. It is placed in the central part of the Tepic-Zacoalco Rift (TZR), which constitutes the north-western end of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Together with Chapala and Colima (in the Jalisco Block), they form the triple rift system developed as a consequence of the ongoing subduction of the Rivera and Cocos oceanic plates beneath the North American continental crust. Although its last eruption occurred in 1870, it is the most active volcano in the area, showing volcanic-earthquake activity together with ongoing vapor emissions. The survey was part of a geothermal project (CeMIEGeo-P24) and focused on the determination of electrical conductivity properties to characterize the deep structure and the geothermal potential of the Volcano. Frequency dependent magnetotelluric response functions were calculated from 25 broadband MT stations, which covered an area of 10 x 10 km2 including its crater, calderas and foreland. The results were interpreted using anisotropic 3-D forward modelling and isotropic 3-D inversion approaches, considering strong topographical effects. The final resistivity model implies a highly conductive layer, reaching from near-surface to approximately 2 km depth, which might be related to a hydrothermal system. Here, mineralized fluids and clay minerals can cause high conductivities around 1 S/m. For longer periods, the principal axes of the MT response tensors (phase tensor, apparent resistivity tensor) are in good agreement with the strike direction of the underlying rift system. However, they are not rendered by the isotropic inversion. Thus the data suggest an anisotropic electrical conductivity at greater depth with its principal axis determined by the response tensors.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high‐resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant‐physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large‐scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.
Precipitation extremes with devastating socioeconomic consequences within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are expected to become more frequent in the near future. The complexity in SAMS behavior, however, poses severe challenges for reliable future projections. Thus, robust paleomonsoon records are needed to constrain the high spatiotemporal variability in the response of SAMS rainfall to different climatic drivers. This study uses Ti/Ca ratios from X‐ray fluorescence scanning of a sediment core retrieved off eastern Brazilian to trace precipitation changes over the past 322 Kyr. The results indicate that despite the spatiotemporal complexity of the SAMS, insolation forcing is the primary pacemaker of variations in the monsoonal system. Additional modulation by atmospheric pCO2 suggests that SAMS intensity over eastern Brazil will be suppressed by rising CO2 emissions in the future. Lastly, our record reveals an unprecedented strong and persistent wet period during Marine Isotope Stage 6 driven by anomalously strong trade winds.
The complex magnetotelluric (MT) apparent resistivity tensor can be decomposed into two real tensors, the apparent resistivity and the resistivity phase tensors, which represent relationships between the observed electric field at a point on the Earth's surface and an associated apparent current density. We explain the differences between these tensors and conventional estimates of apparent resistivity and phase for simple resistivity environments and demonstrate, using canonical models in 1‐D and 2‐D environments, that both tensors are more sensitive to vertical and horizontal resistivity gradients than their conventional counterparts. The properties of the new tensors are explained using electromagnetic induction theory and the effects of associated charges at resistivity boundaries. We introduce a new way to plot tensor ellipses, which brings significant improvements to the interpretation of MT data, using appropriate visualization software. The apparent resistivity tensor gives information about the magnitude and direction of apparent resistivity subsurface structures and has a strong response to vertical resistivity contrasts. The resistivity phase tensor is highly sensitive to vertical boundaries and the associated fields in the TM mode. It is also free from static distortions under the same conditions implied for the conventional phase tensor. These findings have prompted a study in the potential of the new tensors for 3‐D inversions. The results from a 3‐D inversion of a canonical oblique conductor straddling two quarter spaces show distinct improvements in resolving the boundaries of the conductor and open a promising field for future studies.
The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall.
To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone‐generated digital elevation model and quantified wind‐erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m–2 h–1), while older ploughed areas with a re‐established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m–2 h–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m–2 h–1). Material collected from tree‐shaded areas (933 g m–2 h–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment‐covered surfaces (301 g m–2 h–1).
The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land‐use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns.
A realistic simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depends on an accurate representation of the land–atmosphere coupling. Land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in this context and the assimilation of LST can lead to improved estimates of the boundary layer and its processes. We assimilated synthetic satellite LST retrievals derived from a nature run as truth into a fully coupled, state‐of‐the‐art land–atmosphere numeric weather prediction model. As assimilation system a local ensemble transform Kalman filter was used and the control vector was augmented by the soil temperature and humidity. To evaluate the concept of the augmented control vector, two‐day case‐studies with different control vector settings were conducted for clear‐sky periods in March and August 2017. These experiments with hourly LST assimilation were validated against the nature run and overall, the RMSE of atmospheric and soil temperature of the first‐guess (and analysis) were reduced. The temperature estimate of the ABL was particularly improved during daytime as was the estimate of the soil temperature during the whole diurnal cycle. The best impact of LST assimilation on the soil and the ABL was achieved with the augmented control vector. Through the coupling between the soil and the atmosphere, the assimilation of LST can have a positive impact on the temperature forecast of the ABL even after 15 hr because of the memory of the soil. These encouraging results motivate further work towards the assimilation of real satellite LST retrievals.
The continental expression of global cooling during the Miocene Climate Transition in Central Asia is poorly documented, as the tectonically active setting complicates the correlation of Neogene regional and global climatic developments. This study presents new geochemical data (CaSO4 content, carbonate δ13C and δ18O) from the endorheic alluvial‐lacustrine Aktau succession (Ili Basin, south‐east Kazakhstan) combined with findings from the previously published facies evolution. Time series analysis revealed long‐eccentricity forcing of the paleohydrology throughout the entire succession, split into several facies‐dependent segments. Orbital tuning, constrained by new laser ablation U‐Pb dates and a preexisting magnetostratigraphy, places the succession in a 5.0 Ma long interval in the middle to late Miocene (15.6 to 10.6 Ma). The long‐term water accumulation in the Ili Basin followed the timing of the Miocene Climate Transition, suggesting increased precipitation in the catchment area in response to climate cooling and stronger westerly winds. This was paced by minima of the 2.4 Ma eccentricity cycle, which favored the establishment of a discharge playa (~14.3 Ma) and a perennial lake (12.6 to 11.8 Ma). Furthermore, low obliquity amplitudes (nodes) caused a transient weakening of the westerlies at ~13.7 to 13.5 Ma and at ~12.7 Ma, resulting in negative hydrological budgets and salinization. Flooding of the windward Ili Basin coeval with aridification in the leeward basins suggests that the Tian Shan was a climate boundary already in the middle Miocene. Our results emphasize the impact of climate fluctuations on the westerlies' strength and thus on Central Asian hydrology.
An easy-to-use model to evaluate conductivities at high and middle latitudes in the height range 70–100 km is presented. It is based on electron density profiles obtained with the EISCAT VHF radar during 11 years and on the neutral atmospheric model MSIS95. The model uses solar zenith angle, geomagnetic activity and season as input parameters. It was mainly constructed to study the properties of Schumann resonances that depend on such conductivity profiles.
Remote sensing data are essential for monitoring the Earth’s surface waters, especially since the amount of publicly available in-situ data is declining. Satellite altimetry provides valuable information on the water levels and variations of lakes, reservoirs and rivers. In combination with satellite imagery, the derived time series allow the monitoring of lake storage changes and river discharge. However, satellite altimetry is limited in terms of its spatial resolution due to its measurement geometry, only providing information in the nadir direction beneath the satellite’s orbit. In a case study in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), this study investigates the potential and limitations of past and current satellite missions for the monitoring of basin-wide storage changes. For that purpose, an automated target detection is developed and the extracted lake surfaces are merged with the satellites’ tracks. This reveals that the current altimeter configuration misses about 80% of all lakes larger than 0.1 km2 in the MRB and 20% of lakes larger than 10 km2, corresponding to 30% and 7% of the total water area, respectively. Past altimetry configurations perform even more poorly. From the larger water bodies represented by a global hydrology model, at least 91% of targets and 98% of storage changes are captured by the current altimeter configuration. This will improve significantly with the launch of the planned Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.
Increases in water demand often result in unsustainable water use, leaving insufficient amounts of water for the environment. Therefore, water-saving strategies have been introduced to the environmental policy agenda in many (semi)-arid regions. As many such interventions failed to reach their objectives, a comprehensive tool is needed to assess them. We introduced a constructive framework to assess the proposed strategies by estimating five key components of the water balance in an area: (1) Demand; (2) Availability; (3) Withdrawal; (4) Depletion and (5) Outflow. The framework was applied to assess the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) which aimed to increase the basin outflow to the lake to reach 3.1 × 109 m3 yr−1. Results suggested that ULRP could help to increase the Outflow by up to 57%. However, successful implementation of the ULRP was foreseen to be impeded because of three main reasons: (i) decreasing return flows; (ii) increased Depletion; (iii) the impact of climate change. Decreasing return flows and increasing Depletion were expected due to the introduction of technologies that increase irrigation efficiency, while climate change could decrease future water availability by an estimated 3–15%. We suggest that to reach the intervention target, strategies need to focus on reducing water depletion rather than water withdrawals. The framework can be used to comprehensively assess water-saving strategies, particularly in water-stressed basins.
Ice nucleating particle concentrations of the past: insights from a
600 year old Greenland ice core
(2020)
Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the microphysics in cloud and precipitation processes. Hence, they modulate the radiative properties of clouds. However, atmospheric INP concentrations of the past are basically unknown. Here, we present INP measurements from an ice core in Greenland, which dates back to the year 1370. In total 135 samples were analyzed with the FRIDGE droplet freezing assay in the temperature range from −14 ◦C to −35 ◦C. The sampling frequency was set to 1 in 10 years from 1370 to 1960. From 1960 to 1990 the frequency was increased to 1 sample per year. Additionally, a number of special events were probed, including volcanic episodes. The typical time coverage of a sample was on the order of a few months. Historical atmospheric INP concentrations were estimated with a conversion factor, which depends on the snow accumulation rate of the ice core, particle dry deposition velocity and the wet scavenging ratio. Typical atmospheric INP concentrations were on the order of 0.1 L -1 at −25 ◦C. The INP variability was found to be about 1 – 2 orders of magnitude. Yet, the short-term variability from samples over a seasonal cycle was considerably lower. INP concentrations were significantly correlated to chemical tracers derived from continuous flow analysis (CFA) and ion chromatography (IC) over a broad range of nucleation temperatures. The highest correlation coefficients were found for the particle concentration (dp > 1.2 µm). The correlation is higher for the seasonal samples, where INP concentrations follow a clear annual pattern, highlighting the importance of the annual dust input in Greenland from East Asian deserts during spring. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of single particles retrieved from selected samples found particles of soil origin to be the dominant fraction, verifying the significance of mineral dust particles as INPs. Overall, the concentrations compare reasonably well to present day INP concentrations, albeit they are on the lower side. However, we found that the INP concentration at medium supercooled temperatures differed before and after 1960. Average INP concentrations at −23 ◦C, −24 ◦C, −25 ◦C, −26 ◦C and −28 ◦C were significantly higher (and more variable) in the modern day period, which could indicate a potential anthropogenic impact or some post-coring contamination of the topmost, very porous firn.
Ice-nucleating particle concentrations of the past: insights from a 600-year-old Greenland ice core
(2020)
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) affect the microphysics in cloud and precipitation processes. Hence, they modulate the radiative properties of clouds. However, atmospheric INP concentrations of the past are basically unknown. Here, we present INP measurements from an ice core in Greenland, which dates back to the year 1370. In total 135 samples were analyzed with the FRIDGE droplet freezing assay in the temperature range from −14 to −35 ∘C. The sampling frequency was set to 1 in 10 years from 1370 to 1960. From 1960 to 1990 the frequency was increased to one sample per year. Additionally, a few special events were probed, including volcanic episodes. The typical time coverage of a sample was on the order of a few months. Historical atmospheric INP concentrations were estimated with a conversion factor, which depends on the snow accumulation rate of the ice core, particle dry deposition velocity, and wet scavenging ratio. Typical atmospheric INP concentrations were on the order of 0.1 L−1 at −25 ∘C. The INP variability was found to be about 1–2 orders of magnitude. Yet, the short-term variability from samples over a seasonal cycle was considerably lower. INP concentrations were significantly correlated to some chemical tracers derived from continuous-flow analysis (CFA) and ion chromatography (IC) over a broad range of nucleation temperatures. The highest correlation coefficients were found for the particle concentration (spherical diameter dp > 1.2 µm). The correlation is higher for a time period of seasonal samples, where INP concentrations follow a clear annual pattern, highlighting the importance of the annual dust input in Greenland from East Asian deserts during spring. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis of selected samples found mineral dust to be the dominant particle fraction, verifying their significance as INPs. Overall, the concentrations compare reasonably well to present-day INP concentrations, albeit they are on the lower side. However, we found that the INP concentration at medium supercooled temperatures differed before and after 1960. Average INP concentrations at −23, −24, −25, −26, and −28 ∘C were significantly higher (and more variable) in the modern-day period, which could indicate a potential anthropogenic impact, e.g., from land-use change.