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The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes.
The most frequently used boundary-layer turbulence parameterization in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) based-based schemes. However, these parameterizations suffer from a potential weakness, namely the strong dependence on an ad-hoc quantity, the so-called turbulence length scale. The physical interpretation of the turbulence length scale is difficult and hence it cannot be directly related to measurements or large eddy simulation (LES) data. Consequently, formulations for the turbulence length scale in basically all TKE schemes are based on simplified assumptions and are model-dependent. A good reference for the independent evaluation of the turbulence length scale expression for NWP modeling is missing. Here we propose a new turbulence length scale diagnostic which can be used in the gray zone of turbulence without modifying the underlying TKE turbulence scheme. The new diagnostic is based on the TKE budget: The core idea is to encapsulate the sum of the molecular dissipation and the cross-scale TKE transfer into an effective dissipation, and associate it with the new turbulence length scale. This effective dissipation can then be calculated as a residuum in the TKE budget equation (for horizontal sub-domains of different sizes) using LES data. Estimation of the scale dependence of the diagnosed turbulence length scale using this novel method is presented for several idealized cases.
Metasomatic evolution of coesite-bearing diamondiferous eclogite from the Udachnaya Kimberlite
(2020)
Mikhailenko, Denis ; Golovin, Alexander ; Korsakov, Andrey ; Aulbach, Sonja ; Gerdes, Axel ; Ragozin, Alexey
A coesite-bearing diamondiferous eclogite from the Udachnaya kimberlite (Daldyn field, Siberian craton) has been studied to trace its complex evolution recorded in rock-forming and minor mineral constituents. The eclogite sample is composed of rock-forming omphacite (60 vol%), garnet (35 vol%) and quartz/coesite (5 vol%) and contains intergranular euhedral zoned olivine crystals, up to 200 µm long, coexisting with phlogopite, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene (secondary), K-feldspar, plagioclase, spinel, sodalite and djerfisherite. Garnet grains are zoned, with a relatively homogeneous core and a more magnesian overgrowth rim. The rim zones further differ from the core in having higher Zr/Y (6 times that in the cores), ascribed to interaction with, or precipitation from, a kimberlite-related melt. Judging by pressure-temperature estimates (~1200 °C; 6.2 GPa), the xenolith originated at depths of ~180–200 km at the base of the continental lithosphere. The spatial coexistence of olivine, orthopyroxene and coesite/quartz with K-Na-Cl minerals in the xenolith indicates that eclogite reacted with a deep-seated kimberlite melt. However, Fe-rich olivine, orthopyroxene and low-pressure minerals (sodalite and djerfisherite) likely result from metasomatic reaction at shallower depths during transport of the eclogite by the erupting kimberlite melt. Our results demonstrate that a mixed eclogitic-peridotitic paragenesis, reported previously from inclusions in diamond, can form by interaction of eclogite and a kimberlite-related melt.
Papastefanou, Phillip ; Zang, Christian S. ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. ; Liu, Daijun ; Grams, Thorsten E. E. ; Hickler, Thomas ; Rammig, Anja
Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model has two parameters: the parameter λ describing the adjustment of the leaf water potential to changes in soil water potential, and the parameter Δψww describing the typical ‘well-watered’ leaf water potentials at non-stressed (near-zero) levels of soil water potential. Our model was tested and calibrated on 110 time-series datasets containing the leaf- and soil water potentials of 66 species under drought and non-drought conditions. Our model successfully reproduces the measured leaf water potentials over time based on three different regulation strategies under drought. We found that three parameter sets derived from the measurement data reproduced the dynamics of 53% of an drought dataset, and 52% of a control dataset [root mean square error (RMSE) < 0.5 MPa)]. We conclude that, instead of quantifying water-potential-regulation of different plant species by complex modeling approaches, a small set of parameters may be sufficient to describe the water potential regulation behavior for large-scale modeling. Thus, our approach paves the way for a parsimonious representation of the full spectrum of plant hydraulic responses to drought in dynamic vegetation models.
Inappropriate land management leads to soil loss with destruction of the land’s resource and sediment input into the receiving river. Part of the sediment budget of a catchment is the estimation of soil loss. In the Ruzizi catchment in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), only limited research has been conducted on soil loss mainly dealing with local observations on geomorphological forms or river load measurements; a regional quantification of soil loss is missing so far. Such quantifications can be calculated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). It is composed of four factors: precipitation (R), soil (K), topography (LS), and vegetation cover (C). The factors can be calculated in different ways according to the characteristics of the study area. In this paper, different approaches for calculating the single factors are reviewed and validated with field work in two sub-catchments of Ruzizi River supplying the water for the reservoirs of Ruzizi I and II hydroelectric dams. It became obvious that the (R)USLE model provides the best results with revised R and LS factors. C factor calculations required to conduct a supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Procedure. Different C factor values were assigned to the land cover classes. The calculations resulted in a soil loss rate for the predominantly occurring Ferralsols and Leptosols of around 576 kt/yr in both catchments, when 2016 landcover and precipitation are used. This represents an area-normalized value of 40.4 t/ha/yr for Ruzizi I and 50.5 t/ha/yr for Ruzizi II due to different landcover in the two sub-catchments. The mean value for the whole study area is 47.8 t/ha/yr or even 27.1 t/ha/yr when considering land management techniques like terracing on the slopes (P factor). This work has shown that the (R)USLE model can serve as an easy to handle tool for soil loss quantification when comprehensive field work results are sparse. The model can be implemented in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with free data; hence, a validation is crucial. It becomes apparent that the use of high resolution Sentinel 2a MSI data as the basis for C factor calculations is an appropriate method for considering heterogeneous Land Use Land Cover (LULC) patterns. To transfer the approach to other regions, the calculation of factor R needs to be modified
Accretion rates of Holocene tropical coral reefs in three areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans have been quantified in 79 dated core sections in 34 reef cores from Belize, the Maldives and French Polynesia. Holocene vertical reef accretion rate averages 5.05 m/kyr and has decreased during the past 10 kyr. Accretion rates in branched and massive coral facies are statistically similar. Reef accretion rate is positively correlated with the rate of sea‐level rise, that is the degree of creation of accommodation space, and with climate as expressed in a Holocene sea surface temperature anomaly. Accommodation space is also created by subsidence, but at a rate one to two orders of magnitude lower than that created by glacio‐eustasy (0.04 to 0.16 m/kyr). Lagoonal background sedimentation in adjacent reef lagoons averages 0.89 m/kyr as measured in 72 dated core sections in 28 cores. Lagoonal carbonate sedimentation on top of underlying mangrove peat usually starts after a considerable hiatus of ca 3 kyr on average. The lagoonal background sedimentation rate increased during the Holocene, probably due to deepening. The differences between vertical reef accretion and lagoonal background sedimentation rates are a major factor in the production of the widely known saucer shapes typical of tropical reefs and carbonate platforms, that is the creation of unfilled accommodation space. Reef core recovery, used as a proxy for reef consolidation, and core depth exhibit a statistically negative correlation based on data from 326 core barrels. Recovery and marine cement abundance (average volume 8.6%) also decrease from windward to leeward core positions. These observations are presumably a result of both a decrease in the rate of sea‐level rise that is the increase in time available for submarine cementation during the Holocene and the amount of flushing of reef interstices by marine waters.
Diurnal valley winds frequently form over complex topography, particularly under fair weather conditions, and have a significant impact on the local weather and climate. Since diurnal valley winds result from complex and multi-scale interactions, their representation in numerical weather prediction models is challenging. Better understanding of these local winds based on observations is crucial to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. This study investigates the diurnal evolution of the three-dimensional mean wind structure in a deep Alpine valley, the Rhone valley at Sion, using data from a radar wind profiler and a surface weather station operated continuously from 1 September 2016 to 17 July 2017. In particular, the wind profiler data was analyzed for a subset of days on which fair weather conditions allowed for the full development of thermally driven winds. A pronounced diurnal cycle of the wind speed, as well as a reversal of the wind direction twice per day is documented for altitudes up to about 2 km above ground level (AGL) in the warm season and less than 1 km AGL in winter. The diurnal pattern undergoes significant changes during the course of the year. Particularly during the warm-weather months of May through to September, a low-level wind maximum occurs, where mean maximum up-valley velocities of 8–10 m s−1 are found between 15–16 UTC at altitudes around 200 m AGL. In addition, during nighttime, a down-valley jet with maximum wind speeds of 4–8 m s−1 around 1 km AGL is found. A case study of a three-day period in September 2016 illustrates the occurrence of an elevated layer of cross-valley flow around 1–1.5 km AGL.
Cenozoic lignite deposits are widespread across Europe, Asia, America, Australia, and Indonesia. These deposits were the subject of numerous studies on changes in regional/global paleoclimates, paleobotany, paleoenvironment, and basin evolutions, which led to the formation of these lignites. In some of these Cenozoic lignite deposit basins, a succession of pale and dark lignite layers has been described in the Miocene Lower Rhine Basin in Germany, the Oligo-Miocene Gippsland Basin in southeastern Australia, and several Mio-Pliocene basins in southwestern China. Furthermore, pale and dark lithotypes in lignite seams also have been found in some Pliocene lignite deposit basins from Slovenia, Serbia, and Poland. The widespread cyclic occurrence of pale and dark layers in lignite basins might represent alternating depositional conditions related to the changes in plant communities, the regional/global climate, the tectonic setting, the Asian monsoon, and orbital periodicity during peat formation. ...
Stanley, Kieran M. ; Say, Dan ; Mühle, Jens ; Harth, Christina M. ; Krummel, Paul B. ; Young, Dickon ; O'Doherty, Simon ; Salameh, Peter K. ; Simmonds, Peter ; Weiss, Ray F. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Fraser, Paul J. ; Rigby, Matthew
Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF2). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0.9 Gg yr−1). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg CO2-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.
Groundwater is the largest source of accessible freshwater with its dynamics having significantly changed due to human withdrawals, and being projected to continue to as a result of climate change. The pumping of groundwater has led to lowered water tables, decreased base flow, and depletion.
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are used to simulate the global freshwater cycle, assessing impacts of changes in climate and human freshwater use. Currently, groundwater is commonly represented by a bucket-like linear storage component in these models. Bucket models, however, cannot provide information on the location of the groundwater table. Due to this limitation, they can only simulate groundwater discharge to surface water bodies but not recharge from surface water to groundwater and calculate no lateral and vertical groundwater flow whatsoever among grid cells. For instance this may lead to an underestimation of groundwater resources in semiarid areas, where groundwater is often replenished by surface water. In order to overcome these limitations it is necessary to replace the linear groundwater model in GHMs with a hydraulic head gradient-based groundwater flow model
This thesis presents the newly developed global groundwater model G3M and its coupling to the GHM WaterGAP spanning over 70,000 lines of newly developed code. Development and validation of the modeling software are discussed along with numerical challenges. Based on the newly developed software, a global natural equilibrium groundwater model is presented showing better agreements with observations than previous models. Groundwater discharge to rivers is found to be the most dominant flow component globally, compared to flows to other surface water bodies and lateral flows. Furthermore, first global maps of the distribution of gaining and losing surface water bodies are displayed.
For the purpose of determining the uncertainty in model outcomes a sensitivity study is conducted with an innovative approach through applying a global sensitivity analysis for a computationally complex model. First global maps of spatially distributed parameter sensitivities are presented. The results at hand indicate that globally simulated hydraulic heads are equally sensitive to hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge and surface water body elevation, even though parameter sensitivities do vary regionally.
A high resolution model of New Zealand is developed to further understand the involved uncertainties connected to the spatial resolution of the global model. This thesis finds that a new understanding is necessary how these models can be evaluated and that a simple increase in spatial resolution is not improving the model performance when compared to observations.
Alongside the assessment of the natural equilibrium, the concept of a fully coupled transient model as integrated storage component replacing the former model in the hydrological model WaterGAP is discussed. First results reveal that the model shows reasonable response to seasonal variability although it contains persistent head trends leading to global overestimates of water table depth due to an incomplete coupling. Nonetheless, WaterGAP-G3M is already able to show plausible long term storage trends for areas that are known to be affected by groundwater depletion. In comparison with two established regional models in the Central Valley the coupled model shows a highly promising simulation of storage declines.