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Size-resolved long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations as well as hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in the central Amazon Basin over a one-year period and full seasonal cycle (March 2014 - February 2015). The presented measurements provide a climatology of CCN properties for a characteristic central Amazonian rain forest site.
The CCN measurements were continuously cycled through 10 levels of supersaturation (S = 0.11 to 1.10 %) and span the aerosol particle size range from 20 to 245 nm. The observed mean critical diameters of CCN activation range from 43 nm at S = 1.10 % to 172 nm at S = 0.11 %. The particle hygroscopicity exhibits a pronounced size dependence with lower values for the Aitken mode (κAit = 0.14 ± 0.03), elevated values for the accumulation mode (κAcc = 0.22 ± 0.05), and an overall mean value of κmean = 0.17 ± 0.06, consistent with high fractions of organic aerosol.
The hygroscopicity parameter κ exhibits remarkably little temporal variability: no pronounced diurnal cycles, weak seasonal trends, and few short-term variations during long-range transport events. In contrast, the CCN number concentrations exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle, tracking the pollution-related seasonality in total aerosol concentration. We find that the variability in the CCN concentrations in the central Amazon is mostly driven by aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution, while variations in aerosol hygroscopicity and chemical composition matter only during a few episodes.
For modelling purposes, we compare different approaches of predicting CCN number concentration and present a novel parameterization, which allows accurate CCN predictions based on a small set of input data.
The total stratospheric organic chlorine and bromine burden was derived from balloon-borne measurements in the tropics (Teresina, Brazil, 5°04´ S, 42°52´ W) in 2005. Whole air samples were collected cryogenically at altitudes between 15 and 34 km. For the first time, we report measurements of a set of 28 chlorinated and brominated substances in the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere including ten substances with an atmospheric lifetime of less than half a year. The substances were quantified using pre-concentration techniques followed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Spectrometric detection. In the tropical tropopause layer at altitudes between 15 and 17 km we found 1.1–1.4% of the chlorine and 6–8% of the bromine to be present in the form of very short-lived organic compounds. By combining the data with tropospheric reference data and age of air observations the abundances of inorganic chlorine and bromine (Cly and Bry) were derived. At an altitude of 34 km we calculated 3062 ppt of Cly and 17.5 ppt of Bry from the decomposition of both long- and short-lived organic source gases. Furthermore we present indications for the presence of additional organic brominated substances in the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere.
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
In order to achieve climate change mitigation, long-term decisions are required that must be reconciled with other societal goals that draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of crop land, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. Here, we show that current impact-model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and propose a new risk-assessment and decision framework that accounts for competing interests.
Based on cross-sectorally consistent simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we discuss potential gains and limitations of additional irrigation and trade-offs of the expansion of agricultural land as two possible response measures to climate change and growing food demand. We describe an illustrative example in which the combination of both measures may close the supply demand gap while leading to a loss of approximately half of all natural carbon sinks.
We highlight current limitations of available simulations and additional steps required for a comprehensive risk assessment.
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP
(2013)
Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.
Profiles of CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European satellite Envisat have been retrieved from versions MIPAS/4.61 to MIPAS/4.62 and MIPAS/5.02 to MIPAS/5.06 level-1b data using the scientific level-2 processor run by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA). These profiles have been compared to measurements taken by the balloon-borne cryosampler, Mark IV (MkIV) and MIPAS-Balloon (MIPAS-B), the airborne MIPAS-STRatospheric aircraft (MIPAS-STR), the satellite-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), as well as the ground-based Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) network for the reduced spectral resolution period (RR: January 2005–April 2012) of MIPAS. ACE-FTS, MkIV and HATS also provide measurements during the high spectral resolution period (full resolution, FR: July 2002–March 2004) and were used to validate MIPAS CFC-11 and CFC-12 products during that time, as well as profiles from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer, ILAS-II. In general, we find that MIPAS shows slightly higher values for CFC-11 at the lower end of the profiles (below ∼ 15 km) and in a comparison of HATS ground-based data and MIPAS measurements at 3 km below the tropopause. Differences range from approximately 10 to 50 pptv ( ∼ 5–20 %) during the RR period. In general, differences are slightly smaller for the FR period. An indication of a slight high bias at the lower end of the profile exists for CFC-12 as well, but this bias is far less pronounced than for CFC-11 and is not as obvious in the relative differences between MIPAS and any of the comparison instruments. Differences at the lower end of the profile (below ∼ 15 km) and in the comparison of HATS and MIPAS measurements taken at 3 km below the tropopause mainly stay within 10–50 pptv (corresponding to ∼ 2–10 % for CFC-12) for the RR and the FR period. Between ∼ 15 and 30 km, most comparisons agree within 10–20 pptv (10–20 %), apart from ILAS-II, which shows large differences above ∼ 17 km. Overall, relative differences are usually smaller for CFC-12 than for CFC-11. For both species – CFC-11 and CFC-12 – we find that differences at the lower end of the profile tend to be larger at higher latitudes than in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, MIPAS profiles have a maximum in their mixing ratio around the tropopause, which is most obvious in tropical mean profiles. Comparisons of the standard deviation in a quiescent atmosphere (polar summer) show that only the CFC-12 FR error budget can fully explain the observed variability, while for the other products (CFC-11 FR and RR and CFC-12 RR) only two-thirds to three-quarters can be explained. Investigations regarding the temporal stability show very small negative drifts in MIPAS CFC-11 measurements. These instrument drifts vary between ∼ 1 and 3 % decade−1. For CFC-12, the drifts are also negative and close to zero up to ∼ 30 km. Above that altitude, larger drifts of up to ∼ 50 % decade−1 appear which are negative up to ∼ 35 km and positive, but of a similar magnitude, above.
The organic rich Livello Bonarelli formed as a result of oxygen deficiency and carbonate dissolution in the oceans during the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) transition. During this Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2), a combination of factors caused increased productivity, incomplete decomposition of organic matter and widespread deposition of black shales. Although these sediments are extensively studied, the exact extent, cause, timing and duration of oceanic anoxia are debated (Sinton and Duncan, 1997; Mitchell et al., 2008). Contrasting causal mechanisms have been suggested, including stratification of the water column (Lanci et al., 2010) versus intensification of the hydrological cycle driving a dynamic ocean circulation (Trabucho-Alexandre et al., 2010). Studies on trace-elemental and (radiogenic) isotope compositions of Cenomanian marine successions have suggested a volcanic origin of OAE2, by delivering nutrients to the semi-enclosed proto-North Atlantic (Zheng et al., 2013, and references therein; Du Vivier et al., 2014). Deciphering the importance of volcanic and oceanographic processes requires tight constraints on their relative timing. Regularly occurring black cherts and shales below the Livello Bonarelli demonstrate that oceanic conditions in the Umbria-Marche Basin were punctuated by episodes of regional anoxia from the mid-Cenomanian onwards. Their hierarchical stacking pattern suggests an orbital control on the deposition of organic rich horizons (Mitchell et al., 2008; Lanci et al., 2010). Stable carbon isotope data reveal that long-term 15 variations in eccentricity paced the carbon cycle (Sprovieri et al., 2013) and sea level changes (Voigt et al., 2006) of the Late Cretaceous. Here we investigate the role of orbital forcing on climate and the carbon cycle, and, specifically, on organic-rich sedimentation prior, during, and after OAE2.
We also explore the potential for establishing an anchored astrochronology for the C/T interval in Europe. Recent improvements in the astronomical solution (La2011; Laskar et al., 2011b) and in the intercalibration of radiometric and astronomical dating techniques (Kuiper et al., 2008; Renne et al., 2013) allow the extension of the astronomical time scale into the Cretaceous. The C/T boundary in the Western Interior (USA) has been dated at 93.90 ± 0.15 Ma by intercalibration of radio-isotopic and astrochronologic time scales (Meyers et al., 2012b). Also, reinterpretation of proxy records spanning the C/T interval seems to resolve discrepancies in reported durations of the OAE2 (Sageman et al., 2006; Meyers et al., 2012a). The well-documented Italian rhythmic successions, reference sections for climatic processes in the Tethyan realm, need to be tied in with the absolute time scale. Biostratigraphic correlation to radioisotopically-dated ash beds in the Western Interior is complicated by the provinciality of faunas and floras. However, δ13C stratigraphy provides a reliable correlation tool (Gale et al., 2005) and we present a new 40Ar/39Ar age for the Thatcher bentonite from the Western Interior occurring within the mid-Cenomanian δ13C event (MCE). This study integrates the well-developed cyclostratigraphy from the Umbria-Marche Basin with radioisotopic ages from the Western Interior and derives a numerical timescale for this critical interval in Earth’s history.
The oceans at the time of the Cenomanian–Turonian transition were abruptly perturbed by a period of bottom-water anoxia. This led to the brief but widespread deposition of black organic-rich shales, such as the Livello Bonarelli in the Umbria–Marche Basin (Italy). Despite intensive studies, the origin and exact timing of this event are still debated. In this study, we assess leading hypotheses about the inception of oceanic anoxia in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world by providing a 6 Myr long astronomically tuned timescale across the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary. We procure insights into the relationship between orbital forcing and the Late Cretaceous carbon cycle by deciphering the imprint of astronomical cycles on lithologic, physical properties, and stable isotope records, obtained from the Bottaccione, Contessa and Furlo sections in the Umbria–Marche Basin. The deposition of black shales and cherts, as well as the onset of oceanic anoxia, is related to maxima in the 405 kyr cycle of eccentricity-modulated precession. Correlation to radioisotopic ages from the Western Interior (USA) provides unprecedented age control for the studied Italian successions. The most likely tuned age for the base of the Livello Bonarelli is 94.17 ± 0.15 Ma (tuning 1); however, a 405 kyr older age cannot be excluded (tuning 2) due to uncertainties in stratigraphic correlation, radioisotopic dating, and orbital configuration. Our cyclostratigraphic framework suggests that the exact timing of major carbon cycle perturbations during the Cretaceous may be linked to increased variability in seasonality (i.e. a 405 kyr eccentricity maximum) after the prolonged avoidance of seasonal extremes (i.e. a 2.4 Myr eccentricity minimum). Volcanism is probably the ultimate driver of oceanic anoxia, but orbital periodicities determine the exact timing of carbon cycle perturbations in the Late Cretaceous. This unites two leading hypotheses about the inception of oceanic anoxia in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world.
The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well-reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness-of-fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N-limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2-enhancement of NPP for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by c. 10 %; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions not only in studies of global terrestrial C cycling, but to understand underlying mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.
The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C–N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C–N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.
Strong seasonal variability of hygric and thermal soil conditions are a defining environmental feature in Northern Australia. However, how such changes affect the soil–atmosphere exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and dinitrogen (N2) is still 5 not well explored. By incubating intact soil cores from four sites (3 savanna, 1 pasture) under controlled soil temperatures (ST) and soil moisture (SM) we investigated the release of the trace gas fluxes of N2O, NO and carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, the release of N2 due to denitrification was measured using the helium gas flow soil core technique. Under dry pre-incubation conditions NO and N2O emission were very low (< 7.0± 5.0 μgNO-Nm−2 h−1; < 0.0± 1.4 μgN2O-Nm−2 h−1) or in case of N2O, even a net soil uptake was observed. Substantial NO (max: 306.5 μgNm−2 h−1) and relatively small N2O pulse emissions (max: 5.8±5.0 μgNm−2 h−1) were recorded following soil wetting, but these pulses were short-lived, lasting only up to 3 days. The total atmospheric loss of nitrogen was dominated by N2 emissions (82.4–99.3% of total N lost), although NO emissions contributed almost 43.2% at 50% SM and 30 °C ST. N2O emissions were systematically higher for 3 of 12 sample locations, which indicates substantial spatial variability at site level, but on average soils acted as weak N2O sources or even sinks. Emissions were controlled by SM and ST for N2O and CO2, ST and pH for NO, and SM and pH for N2.
Strong seasonal variability of hygric and thermal soil conditions are a defining environmental feature in northern Australia. However, how such changes affect the soil–atmosphere exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and dinitrogen (N2) is still not well explored. By incubating intact soil cores from four sites (three savanna, one pasture) under controlled soil temperatures (ST) and soil moisture (SM) we investigated the release of the trace gas fluxes of N2O, NO and carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, the release of N2 due to denitrification was measured using the helium gas flow soil core technique. Under dry pre-incubation conditions NO and N2O emissions were very low (<7.0 ± 5.0 μg NO-N m−2 h−1; <0.0 ± 1.4 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) or in the case of N2O, even a net soil uptake was observed. Substantial NO (max: 306.5 μg N m−2 h−1) and relatively small N2O pulse emissions (max: 5.8 ± 5.0 μg N m−2 h−1) were recorded following soil wetting, but these pulses were short lived, lasting only up to 3 days. The total atmospheric loss of nitrogen was generally dominated by N2 emissions (82.4–99.3% of total N lost), although NO emissions contributed almost 43.2% to the total atmospheric nitrogen loss at 50% SM and 30 °C ST incubation settings (the contribution of N2 at these soil conditions was only 53.2%). N2O emissions were systematically higher for 3 of 12 sample locations, which indicates substantial spatial variability at site level, but on average soils acted as weak N2O sources or even sinks. By using a conservative upscale approach we estimate total annual emissions from savanna soils to average 0.12 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (N2O), 0.68 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (NO) and 6.65 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (N2). The analysis of long-term SM and ST records makes it clear that extreme soil saturation that can lead to high N2O and N2 emissions only occurs a few days per year and thus has little impact on the annual total. The potential contribution of nitrogen released due to pulse events compared to the total annual emissions was found to be of importance for NO emissions (contribution to total: 5–22%), but not for N2O emissions. Our results indicate that the total gaseous release of nitrogen from these soils is low and clearly dominated by loss in the form of inert nitrogen. Effects of seasonally varying soil temperature and moisture were detected, but were found to be low due to the small amounts of available nitrogen in the soils (total nitrogen <0.1%).
Zum Themenfeld "Diversität und Vielfalt" diskutierten im Rahmen des 8. Treffens des Nachwuchsnetzwerkes "Stadt, Raum, Architektur" Wissenschaftler_innen aus den Sozial-, Geistes- und Raumwissenschaften an den Instituten für Humangeographie, Kulturanthropologie und Europäische Ethnologie der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main am 9. und 10. November 2012. Vor dem Hintergrund aktueller Debatten um die Konzeptualisierung von sowie den praktischen Umgang mit soziokultureller Vielfalt fand ein produktiver Austausch aus den Perspektiven der Stadtplanung, der Architekturwissenschaft sowie der sozial- und kulturwissenschaftlichen Stadt- und Raumforschung statt. Die Ergebnisse dieser interdisziplinären Auseinandersetzung hinsichtlich einer globalen Diskursverschiebung von "Multikulturalismus" zu "Diversität" und der Adaption entsprechender Strategien in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft werden in diesem Tagungsbericht anhand theoretischer Ansätze zu "Super-Diversity", Kosmopolitismus und Transnationalismus diskutiert. Empirisch werden insbesondere Fragen zu Standortmarketing, Integrationspolitiken und der Verräumlichung von Diversität sowie konkreter Praktiken der Segregation, Marginalisierung und Aushandlung von Differenz aufgegriffen. Abschließend wird die Frage nach Konflikten und Potenzialen einer "neuen Diversität" aus stadtplanerischer, dekolonialer und poststrukturalistischer Perspektive diskutiert.
We present the first 3-D model of seismic P and S velocities in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Gulf of Aqaba and surrounding areas based on the results of passive travel time tomography. The tomographic inversion was performed based on travel time data from ∼ 9000 regional earthquakes provided by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN), and this was complemented with data from the International Seismological Centre (ISC). The resulting P and S velocity patterns were generally consistent with each other at all depths. Beneath the northern part of the Red Sea, we observed a strong high-velocity anomaly with abrupt limits that coincide with the coastal lines. This finding may indicate the oceanic nature of the crust in the Red Sea, and it does not support the concept of gradual stretching of the continental crust. According to our results, in the middle and lower crust, the seismic anomalies beneath the Gulf of Aqaba seem to delineate a sinistral shift (∼ 100 km) in the opposite flanks of the fault zone, which is consistent with other estimates of the left-lateral displacement in the southern part of the Dead Sea Transform fault. However, no displacement structures were visible in the uppermost lithospheric mantle.
Funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) a major research project called MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognose, Decadal Climate Prediction) was launched and global as well as regional predictive ensemble hindcasts have been generated. The aim of the project is to demonstrate for past climate change whether predictive models have the capability of predicting climate on time scales of decades. This includes the development of a decadal forecast system, on the one hand to support decision making for economy, politics and society for decadal time spans. On the other hand, the scientific aspect is to explore the feasibility and prospects of global and regional forecasts on decadal time scales. The focus of this paper lies on the description of the regional hindcast ensemble for Europe generated by COSMO-CLM and on the assessment of the decadal variability and predictability against observations. To measure decadal variability we remove the long term bias as well as the long term linear trend from the data. Further, we applied low pass filters to the original data to separate the decadal climate signal from high frequency noise. The decadal variability and predictability assessment is applied to temperature and precipitation data for the summer and winter half-year averages/sums. The best results have been found for the prediction of decadal temperature anomalies, i.e. we have detected a distinct predictive skill and reasonable reliability. Hence it is possible to predict regional temperature variability on decadal timescales, However, the situation is less satisfactory for precipitation. Here we have found regions showing good predictability, but also regions without any predictive skill.
The prediction of climate on time scales of years to decades is attracting the interest of both climate researchers and stakeholders. The German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has launched a major research programme on decadal climate prediction called MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen, Decadal Climate Prediction) in order to investigate the prediction potential of global and regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper we describe a regional predictive hindcast ensemble, its validation, and the added value of regional downscaling. Global predictions are obtained from an ensemble of simulations by the MPI-ESM-LR model (baseline 0 runs), which were downscaled for Europe using the COSMO-CLM regional model. Decadal hindcasts were produced for the 5 decades starting in 1961 until 2001. Observations were taken from the E-OBS data set. To identify decadal variability and predictability, we removed the long-term mean, as well as the long-term linear trend from the data. We split the resulting anomaly time series into two parts, the first including lead times of 1–5 years, reflecting the skill which originates mainly from the initialisation, and the second including lead times from 6–10 years, which are more related to the representation of low frequency climate variability and the effects of external forcing. We investigated temperature averages and precipitation sums for the summer and winter half-year. Skill assessment was based on correlation coefficient and reliability. We found that regional downscaling preserves, but mostly does not improve the skill and the reliability of the global predictions for summer half-year temperature anomalies. In contrast, regionalisation improves global decadal predictions of half-year precipitation sums in most parts of Europe. The added value results from an increased predictive skill on grid-point basis together with an improvement of the ensemble spread, i.e. the reliability.
Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
In old and heavily weathered soils, the availability of P might be so small that the primary production of plants is limited. However, plants have evolved several mechanisms to actively take up P from the soil or mine it to overcome this limitation. These mechanisms involve the active uptake of P mediated by mycorrhiza, biotic de-occlusion through root clusters, and the biotic enhancement of weathering through root exudation. The objective of this paper is to investigate how and where these processes contribute to alleviate P limitation on primary productivity. To do so, we propose a process-based model accounting for the major processes of the carbon, water, and P cycles including chemical weathering at the global scale. Implementing P limitation on biomass synthesis allows the assessment of the efficiencies of biomass production across different ecosystems. We use simulation experiments to assess the relative importance of the different uptake mechanisms to alleviate P limitation on biomass production. We find that active P uptake is an essential mechanism for sustaining P availability on long timescales, whereas biotic de-occlusion might serve as a buffer on timescales shorter than 10 000 yr. Although active P uptake is essential for reducing P losses by leaching, humid lowland soils reach P limitation after around 100 000 yr of soil evolution. Given the generalized modelling framework, our model results compare reasonably with observed or independently estimated patterns and ranges of P concentrations in soils and vegetation. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that P limitation might be an important driver of biomass production efficiency (the fraction of the gross primary productivity used for biomass growth), and that vegetation on old soils has a smaller biomass production rate when P becomes limiting. With this study, we provide a theoretical basis for investigating the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to P availability linking geological and ecological timescales under different environmental settings.
Profiles of CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European satellite Envisat have been retrieved from versions MIPAS/4.61 to MIPAS/4.62 and MIPAS/5.02 to MIPAS/5.06 level-1b data using the scientific level-2 processor run by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA). These profiles have been compared to measurements taken by the balloon-borne cryosampler, Mark IV (MkIV) and MIPAS-Balloon (MIPAS-B), the airborne MIPAS-STRatospheric aircraft (MIPAS-STR), the satellite-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), as well as the ground-based Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) network for the reduced spectral resolution period (RR: January 2005–April 2012) of MIPAS. ACE-FTS, MkIV and HATS also provide measurements during the high spectral resolution period (full resolution, FR: July 2002–March 2004) and were used to validate MIPAS CFC-11 and CFC-12 products during that time, as well as profiles from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer, ILAS-II. In general, we find that MIPAS shows slightly higher values for CFC-11 at the lower end of the profiles (below ∼ 15 km) and in a comparison of HATS ground-based data and MIPAS measurements at 3 km below the tropopause. Differences range from approximately 10 to 50 pptv ( ∼ 5–20 %) during the RR period. In general, differences are slightly smaller for the FR period. An indication of a slight high bias at the lower end of the profile exists for CFC-12 as well, but this bias is far less pronounced than for CFC-11 and is not as obvious in the relative differences between MIPAS and any of the comparison instruments. Differences at the lower end of the profile (below ∼ 15 km) and in the comparison of HATS and MIPAS measurements taken at 3 km below the tropopause mainly stay within 10–50 pptv (corresponding to ∼ 2–10 % for CFC-12) for the RR and the FR period. Between ∼ 15 and 30 km, most comparisons agree within 10–20 pptv (10–20 %), apart from ILAS-II, which shows large differences above ∼ 17 km. Overall, relative differences are usually smaller for CFC-12 than for CFC-11. For both species – CFC-11 and CFC-12 – we find that differences at the lower end of the profile tend to be larger at higher latitudes than in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, MIPAS profiles have a maximum in their mixing ratio around the tropopause, which is most obvious in tropical mean profiles. Comparisons of the standard deviation in a quiescent atmosphere (polar summer) show that only the CFC-12 FR error budget can fully explain the observed variability, while for the other products (CFC-11 FR and RR and CFC-12 RR) only two-thirds to three-quarters can be explained. Investigations regarding the temporal stability show very small negative drifts in MIPAS CFC-11 measurements. These instrument drifts vary between ∼ 1 and 3 % decade−1. For CFC-12, the drifts are also negative and close to zero up to ∼ 30 km. Above that altitude, larger drifts of up to ∼ 50 % decade−1 appear which are negative up to ∼ 35 km and positive, but of a similar magnitude, above.