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We present the characterization and application of a new gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry instrument (GC-TOFMS) for the quantitative analysis of halocarbons in air samples. The setup comprises three fundamental enhancements compared to our earlier work (Hoker et al., 2015): (1) full automation, (2) a mass resolving power R = m/Δm of the TOFMS (Tofwerk AG, Switzerland) increased up to 4000 and (3) a fully accessible data format of the mass spectrometric data. Automation in combination with the accessible data allowed an in-depth characterization of the instrument. Mass accuracy was found to be approximately 5 ppm in mean after automatic recalibration of the mass axis in each measurement. A TOFMS configuration giving R = 3500 was chosen to provide an R-to-sensitivity ratio suitable for our purpose. Calculated detection limits are as low as a few femtograms by means of the accurate mass information. The precision for substance quantification was 0.15 % at the best for an individual measurement and in general mainly determined by the signal-to-noise ratio of the chromatographic peak. Detector non-linearity was found to be insignificant up to a mixing ratio of roughly 150 ppt at 0.5 L sampled volume. At higher concentrations, non-linearities of a few percent were observed (precision level: 0.2 %) but could be attributed to a potential source within the detection system. A straightforward correction for those non-linearities was applied in data processing, again by exploiting the accurate mass information. Based on the overall characterization results, the GC-TOFMS instrument was found to be very well suited for the task of quantitative halocarbon trace gas observation and a big step forward compared to scanning, quadrupole MS with low mass resolving power and a TOFMS technique reported to be non-linear and restricted by a small dynamical range.
Amines are potentially important for atmospheric new particle formation, but their concentrations are usually low with typical mixing ratios in the pptv range or even smaller. Therefore, the demand for highly sensitive gas-phase amine measurements has emerged in the last several years. Nitrate chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) is routinely used for the measurement of gasphase sulfuric acid in the sub-pptv range. Furthermore, extremely low volatile organic compounds (ELVOCs) can be detected with a nitrate CIMS. In this study we demonstrate that a nitrate CIMS can also be used for the sensitive measurement of dimethylamine (DMA, (CH3/2NH) using the NO3−•(HNO3)1 − 2• (DMA) cluster ion signal. Calibration measurements were made at the CLOUD chamber during two different measurement campaigns. Good linearity between 0 and ~120 pptv of DMA as well as a sub-pptv detection limit of 0.7 pptv for a 10 min integration time are demonstrated at 278K and 38% RH.
We present a compact and versatile cryofocusing– thermodesorption unit, which we developed for quantitative analysis of halogenated trace gases in ambient air. Possible applications include aircraft-based in situ measurements, in situ monitoring and laboratory operation for the analysis of flask samples. Analytes are trapped on adsorptive material cooled by a Stirling cooler to low temperatures (e.g. -80°C) and subsequently desorbed by rapid heating of the adsorptive material (e.g. 200°C). The set-up involves neither the exchange of adsorption tubes nor any further condensation or refocusing steps. No moving parts are used that would require vacuum insulation. This allows for a simple and robust design. Reliable operation is ensured by the Stirling cooler, which neither contains a liquid refrigerant nor requires refilling a cryogen. At the same time, it allows for significantly lower adsorption temperatures compared to commonly used Peltier elements. We use gas chromatography – mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for separation and detection of the preconcentrated analytes after splitless injection. A substance boiling point range of approximately -80 to +150°C and a substance mixing ratio range of less than 1 ppt (pmol mol−1)to more than 500 ppt in preconcentrated sample volumes of 0.1 to 10 L of ambient air is covered, depending on the application and its analytical demands. We present the instrumental design of the preconcentration unit and demonstrate capabilities and performance through the examination of analyte breakthrough during adsorption, repeatability of desorption and analyte residues in blank tests. Examples of application are taken from the analysis of flask samples collected at Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station in Ireland using our laboratory GC–MS instruments and by data obtained during a research flight with our in situ aircraft instrument GhOSTMS (Gas chromatograph for the Observation of Tracers – coupled with a Mass Spectrometer).
We present a compact and versatile cryofocusing–thermodesorption unit, which we developed for quantitative analysis of halogenated trace gases in ambient air. Possible applications include aircraft-based in situ measurements, in situ monitoring and laboratory operation for the analysis of flask samples. Analytes are trapped on adsorptive material cooled by a Stirling cooler to low temperatures (e.g. −80 °C) and subsequently desorbed by rapid heating of the adsorptive material (e.g. +200 °C). The set-up involves neither the exchange of adsorption tubes nor any further condensation or refocusing steps. No moving parts are used that would require vacuum insulation. This allows for a simple and robust design. Reliable operation is ensured by the Stirling cooler, which neither contains a liquid refrigerant nor requires refilling a cryogen. At the same time, it allows for significantly lower adsorption temperatures compared to commonly used Peltier elements. We use gas chromatography – mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for separation and detection of the preconcentrated analytes after splitless injection. A substance boiling point range of approximately −80 to +150 °C and a substance mixing ratio range of less than 1 ppt (pmol mol−1) to more than 500 ppt in preconcentrated sample volumes of 0.1 to 10 L of ambient air is covered, depending on the application and its analytical demands. We present the instrumental design of the preconcentration unit and demonstrate capabilities and performance through the examination of analyte breakthrough during adsorption, repeatability of desorption and analyte residues in blank tests. Examples of application are taken from the analysis of flask samples collected at Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station in Ireland using our laboratory GC–MS instruments and by data obtained during a research flight with our in situ aircraft instrument GhOST-MS (Gas chromatograph for the Observation of Tracers – coupled with a Mass Spectrometer).
Knowledge about mass discrimination effects in a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) is crucial for quantifying, e.g., the recently discovered extremely low volatile organic compounds (ELVOCs) and other compounds for which no calibration standard exists so far. Here, we present a simple way of estimating mass discrimination effects of a nitrate-based chemical ionization atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight (CI-APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. Characterization of the mass discrimination is achieved by adding different perfluorinated acids to the mass spectrometer in amounts sufficient to deplete the primary ions significantly. The relative transmission efficiency can then be determined by comparing the decrease of signals from the primary ions and the increase of signals from the perfluorinated acids at higher masses. This method is in use already for PTR-MS; however, its application to a CI-APi-TOF brings additional difficulties, namely clustering and fragmentation of the measured compounds, which can be treated with statistical analysis of the measured data, leading to selfconsistent results. We also compare this method to a transmission estimation obtained with a setup using an electrospray ion source, a high-resolution differential mobility analyzer and an electrometer, which estimates the transmission of the instrument without the CI source. Both methods give different transmission curves, indicating non-negligible mass discrimination effects of the CI source. The absolute transmission of the instrument without the CI source was estimated with the HR-DMA method to plateau between the m=z range of 127 and 568 Th at around 1.5 %; however, for the CI source included, the depletion method showed a steady increase in relative transmission efficiency from the m=z range of the primary ion (mainly at 62 Th) to around 550 Th by a factor of around 5. The main advantages of the depletion method are that the instrument is used in the same operation mode as during standard measurements and no knowledge of the absolute amount of the measured substance is necessary, which results in a simple setup.
Knowledge about mass discrimination effects in a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) is crucial for quantifying, e.g., the recently discovered extremely low volatile organic compounds (ELVOCs) and other compounds for which no calibration standard exists so far. Here, we present a simple way of estimating mass discrimination effects of a nitrate-based chemical ionization atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight (CI-APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. Characterization of the mass discrimination is achieved by adding different perfluorinated acids to the mass spectrometer in amounts sufficient to deplete the primary ions significantly. The relative transmission efficiency can then be determined by comparing the decrease of signals from the primary ions and the increase of signals from the perfluorinated acids at higher masses. This method is in use already for PTR-MS; however, its application to a CI-APi-TOF brings additional difficulties, namely clustering and fragmentation of the measured compounds, which can be treated with statistical analysis of the measured data, leading to self-consistent results. We also compare this method to a transmission estimation obtained with a setup using an electrospray ion source, a high-resolution differential mobility analyzer and an electrometer, which estimates the transmission of the instrument without the CI source. Both methods give different transmission curves, indicating non-negligible mass discrimination effects of the CI source. The absolute transmission of the instrument without the CI source was estimated with the HR-DMA method to plateau between the m∕z range of 127 and 568 Th at around 1.5 %; however, for the CI source included, the depletion method showed a steady increase in relative transmission efficiency from the m∕z range of the primary ion (mainly at 62 Th) to around 550 Th by a factor of around 5. The main advantages of the depletion method are that the instrument is used in the same operation mode as during standard measurements and no knowledge of the absolute amount of the measured substance is necessary, which results in a simple setup.
AirCore-HR: a high resolution column sampling to enhance the vertical description of CH₄ and CO₂
(2016)
An original and innovative sampling system called AirCore was presented by NOAA in 2010 (Karion et al., 2010). It consists of a long (> 100 m) and narrow (< 1 cm) stainless steel tube that can retain a profile of atmospheric air. The captured air sample has then to be analyzed with a gas analyzer for trace mole fraction. In this study, we introduce a new AirCore aiming at improved resolution along the vertical with the objectives to: (i) better capture the vertical distribution of CO2 and CH4, (ii) provide a tool to compare AirCores and validate the estimated vertical resolution achieved by AirCores. This AirCore-HR (high resolution) consists of a 300 m tube, combining 200 m of 1/8 in. (3.175 mm) tube and a 100 m of 1/4 in. (6.35 mm) tube. This new configuration allows to achieve a vertical resolution of 300 m up to 15 km and better than 500 m up to 22 km (if analysis of the retained sample is performed within 3 hours). The AirCore-HR was flown for the first time during the annual StratoScience campaign from CNES in August 2014 from Timmins (Ontario, Canada). High-resolution vertical profiles of CO2 and CH4 up to 25 km were successfully retrieved. These profiles revealed well defined transport structures in the troposphere (also seen in CAMS-ECMWF high resolution forecasts of CO2 and CH4 profiles) and captured the decrease of CO2 and CH4 in the stratosphere. The multi-instruments gondola from the flight carried two other low-resolution AirCore-GUF that allowed to perform direct comparisons and study the underlying processing method used to convert the sample of air to greenhouse gases vertical profiles. In particular, degrading the AirCore-HR derived profiles to the low resolution of AirCore-GUF yields an excellent match between both sets of CH4 profiles, and shows a good consistency between vertical structures of CO2 and CH4. These results fully validate the theoretical vertical resolution achievable by AirCores. Finally, the uncertainties associated with the measurements are assessed, yielding an average uncertainty below 3 ppb for CH4 and 0.25 ppm for CO2 with the major source of uncertainty coming from the potential loss of air sample on the ground and the choice of the starting and ending point of the collected air sample inside the tube. In an ideal case where the sample would be fully retained, it would be possible to know precisely the pressure at which air was sampled last and thus to improve the overall uncertainty to about 0.1 ppm for CO2 and 2 ppb for CH4.
Recently significant advances have been made in the collection, detection, and characterization of ice nucleating particles (INP). Ice nuclei are particles that facilitate the heterogeneous formation of ice within the atmospheric aerosol by lowering the free energy barrier to spontaneous nucleation and growth of ice from atmospheric water and/or vapor. The Frankfurt isostatic diiffusion chamber (FRIDGE) is an INP collection and offline detection system that has become widely deployed and shows additional potential for ambient measurements. Since its initial development FRIDGE has gone through several iterations and improvements. Here we describe improvements that have been made in the collection and analysis techniques. We detail the uncertainties inherent in the measurement method, and suggest a systematic method of error analysis for FRIDGE measurements. Thus what is presented herein should serve as a foundation for the dissemination of all current and future measurements using FRIDGE instrumentation.
Recently significant advances have been made in the collection, detection and characterization of ice nucleating particles (INPs). Ice nuclei are particles that facilitate the heterogeneous formation of ice within the atmospheric aerosol by lowering the free energy barrier to spontaneous nucleation and growth of ice from atmospheric water and/or vapor. The Frankfurt isostatic diffusion chamber (FRankfurt Ice nucleation Deposition freezinG Experiment: FRIDGE) is an INP collection and offline detection system that has become widely deployed and shows additional potential for ambient measurements. Since its initial development FRIDGE has gone through several iterations and improvements. Here we describe improvements that have been made in the collection and analysis techniques. We detail the uncertainties inherent in the measurement method and suggest a systematic method of error analysis for FRIDGE measurements. Thus what is presented herein should serve as a foundation for the dissemination of all current and future measurements using FRIDGE instrumentation.
Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
We discuss applications of a recently developed method for model reduction based on linear response theory of weakly coupled dynamical systems. We apply the weak coupling method to simple stochastic differential equations with slow and fast degrees of freedom. The weak coupling model reduction method results in general in a non-Markovian system; we therefore discuss the Markovianization of the system to allow for straightforward numerical integration. We compare the applied method to the equations obtained through homogenization in the limit of large timescale separation between slow and fast degrees of freedom. We numerically compare the ensemble spread from a fixed initial condition, correlation functions and exit times from a domain. The weak coupling method gives more accurate results in all test cases, albeit with a higher numerical cost.
Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C–N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.
Coccolithophores are an abundant phytoplankton group that exhibit remarkable diversity in their biology, ecology, and calcitic exoskeletons (coccospheres). Their extensive fossil record is testament to their important biogeochemical role and is a valuable archive of biotic responses to environmental change stretching back over 200 million years. However, to realise the potential of this archive requires an understanding of the physiological processes that underpin coccosphere architecture. Using culturing experiments on four modern coccolithophore species (Calcidiscus leptoporus, Calcidiscus quadriperforatus, Helicosphaera carteri and Coccolithus braarudii) from three long-lived families, we investigate how coccosphere architecture responds to shifts from exponential (rapid cell division) to stationary (slowed cell division) growth phases as cell physiology reacts to nutrient depletion. These experiments reveal statistical differences in cell size and the number of coccoliths per cell between these two growth phases, specifically that cells in exponential-phase growth are typically smaller with fewer coccoliths, whereas cells experiencing growth-limiting nutrient depletion have larger coccosphere sizes and greater numbers of coccoliths per cell. Although the exact numbers are species-specific, these growthphase
shifts in coccosphere geometry demonstrate that the core physiological responses of cells to nutrient depletion results in increased cell sizes and coccoliths per cell across four different coccolithophore families (Calcidiscaceae, Coccolithaceae, Isochrysidaceae, Helicosphaeraceae), a representative diversity of this phytoplankton group. Building on this, direct comparison of coccosphere geometries in modern and fossil coccolithophores enables a proxy for growth phase to be developed that allows growth responses to environmental change to be investigated throughout their evolutionary history. Our data also shows that changes in growth rate and coccoliths per cell associated with growth-phase shifts can substantially alter cellular calcite production. Coccosphere geometry is therefore a valuable tool for accessing growth information in the fossil record that provides unprecedented insights into the biotic responses of species to environmental change and its potential biogeochemical consequences.
We present the prototype of a regional climate system model based on the COSMO-CLM regional climate model coupled with several model components, analyze the performance of the couplings and present a strategy to find an optimum configuration with respect to computational costs and time to solution.
The OASIS3-MCT coupler is used to couple COSMO-CLM with two land surface models (CLM and VEG3D), a regional ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea (NEMO-MED12), two ocean models for the North and Baltic Sea (NEMO-NORDIC and TRIMNP+CICE) and the atmospheric component of an earth system model (MPI-ESM). We present a unified OASIS3-MCT interface which handles all couplings in a similar way, minimizes the model source code modifications and describes the physics and numerics of the couplings. Furthermore, we discuss solutions for specific regional coupling problems like handling of different domains, multiple usage of MCT interpolation library and efficient exchange of 3D fields.
A series of real-case simulations over Europe has been conducted and the computational performance of the couplings has been analyzed. The usage of the LUCIA tool of the OASIS3-MCT coupler enabled separation of the direct costs of: coupling, load imbalance and additional computations. The resulting limits for time to solution and costs are shown and the potential of further improvement of the computational efficiency is summarized for each coupling.
It was found that the OASIS3-MCT coupler keeps the direct coupling costs of communication and horizontal interpolation small in comparison with the costs of the additional computations and load imbalance for all investigated couplings. For the first time this could be demonstrated for an exchange of approximately 450 2D fields per time step necessary for the atmosphere-atmosphere coupling between COSMO-CLM and MPI-ESM.
A procedure for finding an optimum configuration for each of the couplings was developed considering the time to solution and costs of the simulations. The optimum configurations are presented for sequential and concurrent coupling layouts. The procedure applied can be regarded as independent on the specific coupling layout and coupling details.
Convection-permitting climate model are promising tools for improved representation of extremes, but the number of regions for which these models have been evaluated are still rather limited to make robust conclusions. In addition, an integrated interpretation of near-surface characteristics (typically temperature and precipitation) together with cloud properties is limited. The objective of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the performance of a ‘state-of-the-art’ regional convection-permitting climate model for a mid-latitude coastal region with little orographic forcing. For this purpose, an 11-year integration with the COSMO-CLM model at Convection-Permitting Scale (CPS) using a grid spacing of 2.8 km was compared with in-situ and satellite-based observations of precipitation, temperature, cloud properties and radiation (both at the surface and the top of the atmosphere). CPS clearly improves the representation of precipitation, in especially the diurnal cycle, intensity and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation. Improvements in the representation of temperature are less obvious. In fact the CPS integration overestimates both low and high temperature extremes. The underlying cause for the overestimation of high temperature extremes was attributed to deficiencies in the cloud properties: The modelled cloud fraction is only 46 % whereas a cloud fraction of 65 % was observed. Surprisingly, the effect of this deficiency was less pronounced at the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere due to a compensating error, in particular an overestimation of the reflectivity of clouds when they are present. Overall, a better representation of convective precipitation and a very good representation of the daily cycle in different cloud types were demonstrated. However, to overcome remaining deficiencies, additional efforts are necessary to improve cloud characteristics in CPS. This will be a challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in ‘state-of-the-art’ models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light of using the CPS models to study climate change it is necessary that these deficiencies are addressed in future research.
It is common practice to use a 30-year period to derive climatological values, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. However this convention relies on important assumptions, of which the validity can be examined by deriving the uncertainty inherent to using a limited time-period for deriving climatological values. In this study a new method, aiming at deriving this uncertainty, has been developed with an application to precipitation for a station in Europe (Westdorpe) and one in Africa (Gulu). The weather generator framework is used to produce synthetic daily precipitation time-series that can also be regarded as alternative climate realizations. The framework consists of an improved Markov model, which shows good performance in reproducing the 5-day precipitation variability. The sub-seasonal, seasonal and the inter-annual signals are introduced in the weather generator framework by including covariates. These covariates are derived from an empirical mode decomposition analysis with an improved stability and significance assessment. Introducing covariates was found to substantially improve the monthly precipitation variability for Gulu. From the weather generator, 1,000 synthetic time-series were produced. The divergence between these time-series demonstrates an uncertainty, inherent to using a 30-year period for mean precipitation, of 11 % for Westdorpe and 15 % for Gulu. The uncertainty for precipitation 10-year return levels was found to be 37 % for both sites.
This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989–2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have been applied to all twelve RCM simulations and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis in order to assess the RCMs from the perspective of different cyclone definitions. All RCMs reproduce the main areas of high cyclone occurrence in the region south of the Alps, in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Seas, as well as in the areas close to Cyprus and to Atlas mountains. The RCMs tend to underestimate intense cyclone occurrences over the Mediterranean Sea and reproduce 24–40 % of these systems, as identified in the reanalysis. The use of grid nudging in one of the RCMs is shown to be beneficial, reproducing about 60 % of the intense cyclones and keeping a better track of the seasonal cycle of intense cyclogenesis. Finally, the most intense cyclones tend to be similarly reproduced in coupled and uncoupled model simulations, suggesting that modeling atmosphere–ocean coupled processes has only a weak impact on the climatology and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà.
In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979–2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius–Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature–precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean–atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070–2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature–precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Mistral and tramontane wind speed and wind direction patterns in regional climate simulations
(2016)
The Mistral and Tramontane are important wind phenomena that occur over southern France and the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Both winds travel through constricting valleys before flowing out towards the Mediterranean Sea. The Mistral and Tramontane are thus interesting phenomena, and represent an opportunity to study channeling effects, as well as the interactions between the atmosphere and land/ocean surfaces. This study investigates Mistral and Tramontane simulations using five regional climate models with grid spacing of about 50 km and smaller. All simulations are driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Spatial patterns of surface wind, as well as wind development and error propagation along the wind tracks from inland France to offshore during Mistral and Tramontane events, are presented and discussed. To disentangle the results from large-scale error sources in Mistral and Tramontane simulations, only days with well simulated large-scale sea level pressure field patterns are evaluated. Comparisons with the observations show that the large-scale pressure patterns are well simulated by the considered models, but the orographic modifications to the wind systems are not well simulated by the coarse-grid simulations (with a grid spacing of about 50 km), and are reproduced slightly better by the higher resolution simulations. On days with Mistral and/or Tramontane events, most simulations underestimate (by 13 % on average) the wind speed over the Mediterranean Sea. This effect is strongest at the lateral borders of the main flow—the flow width is underestimated. All simulations of this study show a clockwise wind direction bias over the sea during Mistral and Tramontane events. Simulations with smaller grid spacing show smaller biases than their coarse-grid counterparts.