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Background: Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.
Methodology: A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.
Principal findings: We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.
Conclusion: Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.
Terrestrial climate and ecosystem evolution during ‘Greenhouse Earth’ phases of the early Paleogene remain incompletely known. Particularly, paleobotanical records from high southern latitudes are giving only limited insights into the Paleocene and early Eocene vegetation of the region. Hence, data from continuous well-calibrated sequences are required to make progress with the reconstruction of terrestrial climate and ecosystem dynamics from the southern latitudes during the early Paleogene.
In order to elucidate the terrestrial conditions from the high southern latitudes during the early Paleogene, terrestrial palynology was applied in the present study to two well-dated deep-marine sediment cores located at the Australo-Antarctic region: (i) IODP Site U1356 (Wilkes Land margin, East Antarctica) and (ii) ODP Site 1172 (East Tasman Plateau, southwest Pacific Ocean). The studied sequence from IODP Site U1356 comprises mid-shelfal sediments from the early to middle Eocene (53.9 – 46 million years ago [Ma]). For the ODP Site 1172, the studied succession is characterized by sediments deposited in shallow marine environments of the middle Paleocene to the early Eocene (60.7 – 54.2 Ma).
Based on the obtained pollen and spores (sporomorphs) results from the studied sequences of Site U1356 and Site 1172, this study aims to: (1) decipher the terrestrial climate conditions along the Australo-Antarctic region from the middle Paleocene to the middle Eocene; (2) evaluate the structure, diversity and compositional patterns of forests that throve in the Australo-Antarctic region during the early Paleogene; (3) understand the response of forests from the high southern latitudes to the climate dynamics from the early Paleogene; (4) establish a connection between the generated terrestrial palynomorph data and published Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) from the same cores.
To decipher the terrestrial climatic conditions on the Australo-Antarctic region, this study relies on the nearest living relative (NLR) concept that assumes that fossil taxa have similar climate requirements as their modern counterparts. This approach was applied to the sporomorph results of Site U1356 and Site 1172, following mainly the bioclimatic analysis. With regard to the structure and diversity patterns of the vegetation from the same region, the present study presents combined qualitative (i.e., reconstruction of the vegetation based mainly on the habitats of the known living relatives) and quantitative (i.e., application of ordination techniques, rarefaction and diversity indices) analyses of the fossil sporomorphs results.
The overall results from the paleoclimatic and vegetation reconstruction approaches applied in the present study, indicate that temperate and paratropical forests during the early Paleogene throve under different climatic conditions on the Wilkes Land margin and on Tasmania, at paleolatitudes of ∼70°S and ∼65°S, respectively.
Specifically, the sporomorph results from Site U1356, suggest that a highly diverse forest similar to present-day forests from New Caledonia was thriving on Antarctica during the early Eocene (53.9 – 51.9 Ma). These forests were characterized by the presence of termophilous taxa that are restricted today to tropical and subtropical settings, notably Bombacoideae, Strasburgeria, Beauprea, Spathiphyllum, Anacolosa and Lygodium. In combination with MBT/CBT paleotemperature results, they provide strong evidence for near-tropical warmth at least in the coastal lowlands along the Wilkes Land margin. The coeval presence of frost tolerant taxa such as Nothofagus, Araucariaceae and Podocarpaceae during the early Eocene on the same record suggests that paratropical forests were thriving along the Wilkes Land margin. Due to the presence of this kind of vegetation, it is possible to suggest that forests in this region were subject to a climatic gradient related to differences in elevation and/or the proximity to the coastline.
By the middle Eocene, the paratropical forests that characterized the vegetation of the early Eocene on the Wilkes Land margin were replaced by low diversity temperate forests dominated by Nothofagus, and similar to present-day cool-temperate forests from New Zealand. The dominance of these forests and the absence of thermophilous elements together with the lower temperatures suggested by the MBT/CBT and the sporomorph-based temperatures indicate consistently cooler conditions during this time interval.
With regard to the sporomorph results of Site 1172, this study suggests that three vegetation types were thriving on Tasmania from the middle Paleocene to the early Eocene under different climatic conditions. During the middle to late Paleocene, warm-temperate forests dominated by Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae were the prevailing vegetation on Tasmania. The dominance of these forests was interrupted by the transient predominance of cool-temperate forests dominated by Nothofagus and Araucariaceae across the middle/late Paleocene transition interval (~59.5 to ~59.0 Ma). This cool-temperate forest was characterized by a lack of frost-sensitive elements (i.e., palms and cycads) indicating cooler conditions with harsher winters on Tasmania during this time interval. By the early Eocene, and linked with the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Paleocene temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms were replaced by paratropical rainforests with the remarkable presence of the tropical mangrove palm Nypa during the PETM and the earliest Eocene. The overall results from Site U1356 and Site 1172, provide a new assessment of the terrestrial climatic conditions in the Australo-Antarctic region for validating climate models and understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the climate dynamics of the early Paleogene on southern latitudes.
The climatic conditions in the higher latitudes during the early Paleogene were further unravelled by comparing the obtained terrestrial and marine results. The integration of the obtained sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based SSTs from Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics were closely linked with the temperature evolution from the Australo-Antarctic region. Moreover, the comparison of TEX86-based SSTs and sporomorph-based climatic estimations from Site 1172 suggests a warm-season bias of both calibrations of TEX86 (i.e., TEX86Hand TEX86H), when this proxy is applied to high southern latitudes records of the early Paleogene.
To reconstruct ocean circulation changes during specific periods of Earth history, benthic and planktic foraminifera were used as proxies in the different parts of this thesis. Both studied time periods, the Late Cretaceous and the early Pleistocene, are characterized by long-term climate cooling and major changes in ocean circulation. The first part of this thesis concentrated in the Late Cretaceous. During the Late Cretaceous long-term cooling phase, benthic foraminiferal δ18O values show a positive shift lasting about 1.5 Myr (71.5–70 Ma). This shift can be observed on a global scale and has become known as the Campanian-Maastrichtian Boundary Event (CMBE). It is proposed that this δ18O excursion is influenced either by changing intermediate- to deep-water circulation or by temporal build-up of Antarctic ice sheets. Benthic foraminiferal assemblage counts from a southern high-latitudinal site near Antarctica (ODP Site 690) are analyzed to test if the influence of the CMBE on the benthic species composition. One of the two discussed hypotheses for the causation of the δ18O transition is a change in intermediate- to deep-water circulation from low-latitude to high-latitude water masses. This change would result in cooler temperatures, higher oxygen concentration, and possibly lower organic-matter flux at the seafloor, causing a major benthic foraminiferal assemblage change. Another possible explanation of the δ18O transition of the CMBE is significant ice formation on Antarctica. However no major benthic foraminiferal assemblage change would be expected in this case. The benthic foraminiferal assemblage of Site 690 shows a separation of the studied succession into two parts with significantly different species composition. The older part (73.0–70.5 Ma) is dominated by species, which are typical for lower bottom water oxygen concentration and more common in low-latitude assemblages. Species dominating the younger part (70.0–68.0 Ma) are indicators for well-oxygenated bottom waters and more common in high-latitude assemblages. This change in the benthic foraminiferal assemblages is interpreted to represent a shift of low-latitude toward high-latitude dominated intermediateto deep-water sources. A change in oceanic circulation was therefore at least a major component of the CMBE. The Pacific Ocean contributed significantly to the climatic development during the Late Cretaceous cooling period. The contribution of ocean circulation changes in the Pacific Ocean to the Late Cretaceous climatic development in general and the CMBE and Mid-Maastrichtian Event (MME) in particular, however, is poorly understood. Previously measured high resolution planktic and benthic stable isotope data and a neodymium (Nd) isotope record from the Pacific ODP Site 1210 (Shatsky Rise, tropical Pacific Ocean) for the Campanian to Maastrichtian (69.5 to 72.5 Ma) are used to reconstruct changes in surface- and bottom water temperatures as well as changes in the source region of deep- to intermediate waters [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. The results of the benthic foraminiferal δ18O and Nd isotope records in combination with Nd isotope records from other studies indicate changes in the intensity of intermediate- to deep ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific across the Campanian-Maastrichtian interval [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. During the early Maastrichtian (72.5 to 69.5 Ma), a three-million-year-long period of cooler conditions and a simultaneous change towards less radiogenic Nd isotope signatures is interpreted to represent a period of increased admixture and northward flow of deep waters from the Southern Ocean (Southern Component Water, SCW). This change was probably caused by an intensified formation of deep waters in the Southern Ocean. This was reduced again during the MME (69.5 to 68.5 Ma). This early Maastrichtian cold interval is similar to the CMBEδ13C fall and succeeding δ13C rise towards the MME and is therefore also interpreted to represent tectonically forced, long-term changes in the global carbon cycle and thus a tectonic forcing of the early Maastrichtian climate cooling. Overall, the Campanian-Maastrichtian Nd and stable isotope records of Shatsky Rise indicate changes in ocean circulation that are paralleled by global warming and cooling periods. The fluctuating strength of SCW contribution in the tropical Pacific points towards an increased respectively weakened ocean circulation, which is probably related to the strength of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. For this study, the analysis of benthic foraminiferal assemblages of Site 1210 is carried out for the same time interval (69.5 to 72.5 Ma) as Nd and stable isotopes to evaluate the influence of intermediate- to deep ocean circulation changes on the benthic foraminiferal community. The possible reaction of benthic foraminiferal assemblages is compared to the results of stable isotope and neodymium isotopes. The observed changes in species abundances only partly reflect the circulation changes reconstructed with Nd and stable oxygen istopes. For example, Stensioina spp., Aragonia spp. and Lenticulina spp., cold-water preferring species, start to be increasingly abundant at the beginning of enhanced influence of SCW. However, their abundance pattern does not follow the varying strength of the cold SCW influence at Shatsky Rise. Other species prefer lesser oxygen concentrations and warmer bottom water, e.g. Paralabamina spp. and Globorotalites spp. Paralabamina spp. has its highest relativ abundance at the beginning of the studied succession, where the influence of SCW is small. However, this taxa occurs throughout the record, even though the influence of SCW increases. Globorotalites spp. is even most abundance after the CMBE, where bottom waters are till cold and influenced by SCW. This leads to the conclusion that the varying strength of SCW in the tropical Pacific at Shatsky Rise through the studied interval is not facilitating a significant faunal turnover as has been observed at the South Atlantic Site 690 (Chapter 3). These results of the benthic foraminiferal assemblage analysis suggest a rather minor influence of the SCW on the major environmental factors that are generally influencing benthic foraminiferal communities (e.g., oxygen concentration, organic matter flux to the sea floor, bottom-water temperature). The second major part of this thesis focused on the late Pliocene-earliest Pleistocene. The late Pliocene is characterized by a long-term global cooling trend resulting in a major increase of Arctic ice sheets from around 3 Ma onwards, culminating in the Plio-Pleistocene intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. At around 2.7 Ma, large amplitude glacial-interglacial excursions (~1‰ δ18O in benthic foraminiferal calcite) in benthic oxygen isotopes can be observed. Marine isotope stage (MIS) 100 at around 2.55 Ma is the first glacial, when widespread ice rafted debris has been found in sediments in the North Atlantic Ocean. To gain a deeper understanding of the climatic evolution of the latest Pliocene-early Pleistocene, it is necessary to improve the reconstructions of North Atlantic paleohydrography, as the North Atlantic provides a key region for global climate. The consequences of the intensification of Northern Hemisphere on the early Pleistocene North Atlantic thermocline stratification and intermediate waters are still poorly understood. However, surface hydrography, the history of the thermocline and development of North Atlantic intermediate waters are well-studied for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). These well-known mechanisms responsible for the LGM in comparison with the present-day interglacial North Atlantic are used as an analogue for te early Pleistocene glacialinterglacials cycles. In this study, suborbitally resolved stable oxygen and carbon isotope and Mg/Ca records are measured from a deep-dwelling planktic foraminifera (Globorotaliacrassaformis) from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1313 (North Atlantic, 41°N) covering marine oxygen isotope stages MIS 103 to 95 (early Pleistocene, 2.6 to 2.4 Ma). The results are interpreted to represent a change in intermediate-water masses on glacialinterglacial timescales. During glacials geochemical records in G. crassaformis (~500–1000 m) bear the imprint of Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), while during interglacials this species reflects the signature of the influence of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) in combination with the subtropical gyre. The comparison of this data with the published records from G. ruber from the same samples facilitates the reconstruction of glacial-interglacial stratification changes of the upper water column at Site U1313. The results show that larger gradients of temperature, salinity and δ13C prevailed during glacials, suggesting a stronger stratification of the upper water column. This can be seen to indicate glacial-interglacial changes in ntermediate water masses in the North Atlantic similar to those reconstructed for the latest Pleistocene. As an additional proxy, the clumped isotope paleothermometer is applied for the Late Cretaceous study as well as for the early Pleistocene. This proxy is commonly assumed to be independent of other factors than temperature. Clumped isotopes are measured for the Late Cretaceous Site 690 on the planktic foraminiferal species Archaeoglobigerina australis and compared to already existing stable oxygen isotopes of this species. This is assumed to enable the reconstruction of paleotemperature independent of ice volume and therefore contribute to the long-lasting discussion whether there was a temporal ice build-up on Antarctic during the Campanian-Maastrichtian cooling period. For the early Pleistocene, the planktic foraminiferal species G. crassaformis is used from Site U1313 from MIS 99 (interglacial) and MIS 98 (glacial). This provides the opportunity to separate ice volume, salinity and temperature effects on the measured δ18O record of G. crassaformis. The results of the clumped isotope measurements reveal comparatively large standard errors. For the Late Cretaceous the standard error of the clumped isotope measurements proved too large to allow any conclusions on the temperature component on the δ18O record of A. australis. For the early Pleistocene, the temperature difference is also too small to be reconstructed with the standard error of the clumped isotope measurements in this study. Measuring many replicates of one sample would minimize the standard error considerably. However, the amount necessary to measure replicates cannot be gained for either time period, as almost all foraminifera were picked from the respective samples. It is concluded that the respective questions may be solved with a different method of clumped isotope analysis requiring less sample material. This method is, for example, available at the ETH Zurich.
Mantle convection is the process by which heat from the Earth’s core is transferred upwards to the surface and it is accepted to explain the dynamics of the Earth’s interior. On geological time-scales, mantle material flows like a viscous fluid as a consequence of the buoyancy forces arising from thermal expansion. Indeed, mantel convection provides a framework which links together the major disciplines, such as seismology, mineral physics, geochemistry tectonic and geology. The numerical model has been applied to understand the dynamic, structure and evaluation of the Earth, and other terrestrial planets and the investigations continue to explore, different aspects of the mantle convection.
In fact, to model this phenomenon, two complementary approaches are possible. On the one hand, one can solve self-consistently the equations of thermal convection, including parameters and employing physical relationships derived from mineral physics. Our understanding of mantle convection depends ultimately upon the success of such fully self-consistent dynamic models in explaining observable features of the flow. Although, these models presently unable to predict the actual convection pattern of the Earth, they are extremely useful to investigate general characteristics of given physical systems. On the other hand, to permit comparison with specific observables associated with the flow, one can consider a more restricted problem. Instead of focusing on the time evolution of mantle flow, if we know a priori the temperature - and hence presumably the density - anomalies that drive the convection, we can try to build a snapshot of the present-day flow pattern, consistent with those anomalies, that can successfully predict the observables. As matter of fact, the aim of this study is to investigate both approaches in comparison with the main geophysical constraints on mantle structure. These constraints include the geoid anomalies, the dynamic surface and core-mantle boundary topography and tectonic plate motions.
The most appropriate mathematical basis functions for describing a bounded and continuous function on a spherical surface are spherical harmonics. We may therefore expand the geodynamic observables in terms of spherical harmonics. We have investigated two methods of the global spherical harmonic analysis by specific attention to the dynamic geoid computation of the geodynamic models. The first method is the quadrature method in which the loss of the orthogonality of the Legendre functions in transition from continues to discrete case is the major drawback to the method. Particularly, we showed that in the absence of the tesseral harmonics, quadrature formulation leads to obtain inaccurate results. The second method is the least-squares which can be considered as the best linear unbiased estimator that provides the exact results. We showed that even with a low resolution grid data it is possible to reconstruct the data and achieve an accurate result by using this method, which is extremely remarkable in three-dimensional global convection studies. However, special care has to be taken since there is some source of errors that might influence the efficiency of this method.
In general, to better understanding of the properties of the mantle, it is useful to assess observable characteristics of plumes in the mantle, including geoid, topography and heat flow anomalies. However, only few studies exist on geoid and topography for axi-symmetric convection and their models were restricted to isoviscous (or stratified) mantle and low Rayleigh numbers. We studied fully coupled depth and temperature dependent Arrhenius type of viscosity in axi-symmetric spherical shell geometry in order to investigate the shape of geoid anomalies and dynamic topography above a plume. Indeed, the topography and geoid anomalies produced from plumes are sensitive to rheology of the mantle and rheology of the plume; both have effects on shape and amplitude of the geoid anomalies. As results we are able to define different classes of plumes by their geoid signals.
Mainly depth-dependent viscosity models show a geoid with negative sign above the plume which can turn to the positive sign by decrease the viscosity contrast. This can be considered as a transition between the strongly depth dependent and the constant viscosity case. Our results basically support the idea by Morgan [1965] and McKenzie [1977]. They have shown the magnitude and even the sign of the total gravity anomaly depend on the spatial variation in effective viscosity. In addition, Hager [1984] has concluded that the total gravity field is depend on the radial distribution of effective viscosity, and a small change in viscosity contrast leads to varying sign of the response function.
In the case of temperature-dependent viscosity, the formation of an immobile lithosphere is a natural result, and the flow as well as the total geoid becomes strongly time dependent. When we increase the activation energy, all geoids associated with the first arriving plumes look like bell shaped whereas for typical plumes, after reaching a statistical steady state, bell-shaped geoids with decreasing amplitude as well as linear flank shaped geoids are observed. It is surprising that in spite of large differences in lateral and depth varying viscosities, the shapes of the geoid anomalies remained rather similar. We also identified different behaviors in the combined model with temperature-and pressure-dependent viscosity. In fact, in spite of the strongly different rheology, the geoid anomalies in all cases were surprisingly similar. Furthermore, we proposed a scaling law for the geoid which makes our results directly applicable to other planets. Moreover, we can apply the results of our calculation to find relations between different rheology and sub-lid temperature, since we know that the mantle temperature can change significantly with variation in pressure-temperature dependent viscosity. It is also possible to define a range of stagnant lid thickness related to the amplitude of the geoid which can be reasonable for study of the lid thickness in Venus or Mars.
Nevertheless, in these series of models, we simplified a number of complexities within the Earth. One of the most important of such simplification is the Boussinesq approximation. This approximation is valid if the temperature scale height (i.e. the depth over which temperature increases by a factor of “ ” due to adiabatic compression) is much greater than the convection depth. However, a temperature scale height in the Earth’s mantle is at best only slightly greater than the mantle depth. Hence, the Boussinesq approximation could mask some very important stratification and compressibility effects that influence both the spatial and temporal structure of the convection. Therefore, in more advance models we considered compressibility in our mantle convection models, assuming that density vary both radially and laterally, being determined as a function of pressure and temperature through an appropriate equation of the state. Moreover, thermodynamic properties assumed to be a function of depth.
We examined the details of the structure of the spherical axi-symmetric Anelastic Liquid Approximation model (ALA) with special attention to the Arrhenius rheology, and compare it to the cases of compressible convection without depth dependent thermodynamical properties, and to cases of the extended Boussinesq approximation. At the same time, the effects of the interaction between temperature and pressure-dependent viscosity and thermodynamic parameters in the compressible mantle convection on the geoid and topography have been studied. We showed that assuming compressible convection with depth-dependent thermodynamic properties strongly influence the geoid undulations. Using compressible convection with constant thermodynamic properties is physically inconsistent and may lead to spurious results for the geoid and convection pattern. Indeed, by a systematic study of different approaches of compressibility in the spherical shell convection for different Arrhenius viscosity laws we proved that only in the unrealistic case of zero activation energy the different compressibility modes result in comparable convection and geoid patterns. In all other rheological cases, large differences have been obtained, that stressing the important role of consistent compressible thermodynamic properties for mantle convection.
In addition, we examine the impact of compressibility as well as different rheologies on the power law relation that connects the Nusselt number to the Rayleigh number. We have discovered that the power law index of the relationship is controlled by the rheology, independent of which approximation is used. Instead, the bound of this relation is controlled by a combination of different approximation and rheology.
Next, instead of focusing on the time evolution of mantle flow, we have carried out three-dimensional spherical shell models of mantle circulation to investigate the effects of joint radial and lateral viscosity variations on the Earth’s non-hydrostatic geoid, surface and core-mantle boundary topographies. These models include realistic lateral viscosity variations (LVV) in the lithosphere, upper mantle and lower mantle in combination with different stratified viscosity structures. We have demonstrated that the contradictory results concerning the effects of LVV can be clarified by the most straight-forward problem in geoid modeling; namely, rather poorly known stratified viscosity structure. We explored three classes of dynamic geoid models due to lateral viscosity variations. In the first class, the LVV strongly improved the fit to the observed geoid. Indeed, when the viscosity contrast between lower and upper mantles is not large enough to produce a good fit to geoid the LVVs are able to perform this action by adjusting amplitudes, so that it becomes comparable with observation. In the second class, inducing the LVV moderately improved the fit. Actually, when the geoid induced by a stratified viscosity structure already has a good correlation with observation, then the LVV causes its amplitude to further improve. In the last class, if the viscosity contrast between upper and lower mantle would be high enough, inducing LVV deteriorate the fit to the observed geoid.. Indeed, depending on the stratified viscosity, inducing the LVV may take place in one of these categories.
We also quantified the effects of LVV in the mantle and lithosphere individually. We found that the presence of LVV in the mantle (upper and lower) improves the fit to the observed geoid regardless of stratified viscosity. While LVV in the lithosphere is a crucial parameter, and dependent of the stratified viscosity, may increase or decrease the geoid fit. In fact, when the lower mantle considers being viscous enough, it would support the negative buoyancy of subducting slabs. Thus, it transmits some of the stress back to the top boundary and causes a weak coupling between slab and surface. Therefore, by including the low viscous plate boundaries in this model, the slabs and overriding plates decouples and the fit to the observed geoid degrades. In contrast, when the lower mantle viscosity is not sufficiently stiff, the presence of the low viscous plate boundaries assists to weaken the strong mechanical coupling between slab and surface. Hence, a better fit achieved.
Die Seismizität des nördlichen Oberrheingrabens (ORG) ist aufgrund seines Potentials für die geothermische Nutzung und der damit möglicherweise verbundenen seismischen Risiken von allgemeinem Interesse. Detaillierte Kenntnisse der natürlichen Seismizität erlauben Rückschlüsse auf aktive Störungszonen und Spannungsverhältnisse im Untergrund. Sie liefert außerdem wichtige Hintergrundinformationen für die Abschätzung einer möglichen induzierten Seismizität. Untersuchungen zur Charakterisierung der natürlichen Seismizität, des Spannungsfeldes und der seismischen Gefährdung des nördlichen ORG sind Hauptbestandteil dieser Arbeit, die innerhalb des BMU/BMWi-Projektes SiMoN (Seismisches Monitoring im Zusammenhang mit der geothermischen Nutzung des Nördlichen Oberrheingrabens) entstanden ist. Aufzeichnungen eines Netzwerkes aus 13 seismischen Stationen dienen als Datengrundlage zur Charakterisierung der Seismizität innerhalb eines etwa 50 x 60 km2 großen Areals im dichtbesiedelten Rhein-Main Gebiet. Untersuchungen der Rauschbedingungen zur Bewertung der Eignung der Stationsorte für das Aufzeichnen der natürlichen Seismizität lieferten bei den Stationen auf felsigem Untergrund sehr gute spektrale Eigenschaften, während alle Stationen im Sediment des ORG deutlich höhere Rauschanteile aufzeigten. Anhand systematischer Messungen in flachen Bohrlöchern konnten laterale und vertikale Variationen des seismischen Rauschens beschrieben werden und dadurch eine Verbesserung der Detektionsschwelle beobachtet werden.
Es werden die Ergebnisse des seismischen Monitorings für den Zeitraum November 2010 bis Dezember 2014 dargestellt. Die Detektionsschwelle für das Netzwerk liegt bei einer Lokalmagnitude von etwa 0,5, die Vollständigkeitsmagnitude beträgt Mc = 1,2. Seit Beginn der Datenaufzeichnung konnten 243 Erdbeben im unmittelbaren Bereich des Stations-netzwerkes mit Magnituden im Bereich zwischen ML = -0,5 und ML = 4,2 lokalisiert werden. Die Epizentren liegen hauptsächlich entlang der östlichen Grabenschulter und im Graben; entlang der westlichen Grabenschulter ist die seismische Aktivität deutlich geringer. Eine weitere aktive Region konnte entlang der südlichen Ausläufer des Taunus im Nordwesten des Untersuchungsgebietes identifiziert werden. Die Seismizität erstreckt sich bis in eine Tiefe von 24 km mit einem Maximum der hypozentralen Tiefenverteilung im Bereich von 12-18 km. Im Graben ist die Seismizität dabei auf die tiefere Kruste im Bereich von 9-24 km beschränkt. Das Fehlen von seismischer Aktivität in der oberen Kruste bis ca. 9 km Tiefe im Graben könnte auf eine aseismische Deformation in diesem Tiefenbereich hindeuten. Seit Mai 2014 konnte südöstlich von Darmstadt bei der Ortschaft Ober-Ramstadt zum ersten Mal seit fast 150 Jahren eine Schwarmbebenaktivität im Bereich des nördlichen ORG registriert werden. Die Hypozentren sind in zwei Cluster unterteilt, die räumlich voneinander getrennt sind und unterschiedliche Aktivitätsraten aufweisen. Die Herdtiefen liegen im Bereich von 1-8 km.
Zusätzlich zu den Daten des SiMoN Netzwerkes wurden Aufzeichnungen der regionalen Erdbebendienste in Herdflächenanalysen für insgesamt 58 Erdbeben einbezogen. Die Herdflächenlösungen weisen überwiegend Blattverschiebungen (Strike-slip-Mechanismen) auf. Auf- und Abschiebungen spielen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Die berechneten Herdmechanismen bestätigen, dass sich das Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG transtensional verhält, im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte jedoch eine deutlich ausgeprägte Blattverschiebungskomponente identifiziert werden. Zur Bestimmung der Hauptspannungsachsen wurde eine Inversion der Herdflächenlösungen durchgeführt und die Richtung der maximalen horizontalen Spannung, welche hauptsächlich in N135°E orientiert ist, bestimmt.
Aufbauend auf den neu gewonnen Erkenntnissen zur natürlichen Seismizität und zum Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG wurde eine probabilistische seismische Gefährdungsanalyse durchgeführt. Um Unsicherheiten in den seismischen Quellregion-modellen zu berücksichtigen, wurden sechs unterschiedliche Modelle entwickelt. Für jede Quellregion wurden spezifische Parameter bestimmt. Ihre Unsicherheiten werden in einem logischen Baum behandelt. Auf der Grundlage eines neu zusammengestellten Momentmagnituden-basierten Erdbebenkatalogs wurden die Magnitudenhäufigkeits-parameter bestimmt. Unter Berücksichtigung des tektonischen Regimes in jeder Quelle wurden unterschiedliche Dämpfungsrelationen der Bodenbeschleunigung verwendet. Zur Quantifizierung der maximal zu erwartenden Magnitude in jeder Quelle wurden Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichtefunktionen berechnet. Die Resultate der Gefährdungsanalyse werden in Form von Karten der Spektralbodenbeschleunigungen und Spitzenboden-beschleunigungen für Wiederkehrperioden von 475 und 2475 Jahren und Antwortbeschleunigungsspektren dargestellt. Im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte eine erhöhte seismische Gefährdung für den nördlichen ORG festgestellt werden.
This study describes the Holocene sedimentary lagoonal deposition history, including event sedimentation and benthic foraminiferal analyzes, from about 10 kyrs BP until today. This is the first study describing the sedimentation of a Maldivian atoll lagoon in such detail. Thirty-nine sediment cores have been recovered from the deep Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon of the Maldives (4°N/73°W). Seventeen sediment cores were opened, described, and 296 sediment samples have been collected and analyzed. Different methods have been used to evaluate the coarse- and fine-grained carbonate components and a total of fifty-eight samples have been dated radiometrically by Beta Analytic Inc., Miami, Florida. In general, the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon sediments can be divided into (1) a Late Pleistocene soil, (2) an early Holocene peat layer composed of mangrove deposits which mark the beginning inundation of the atoll lagoon by the rising Holocene sea-level at 10,320 ± 100 yrs BP, and (3) carbonate sediments starting to fill up the lagoon 7850 ± 140 yrs BP until today. The transition from peat to carbonate is characterized by a considerable hiatus. Six different carbonate sediment facies are classified by statistical analyses, listed in decreasing abundance:
(1) mollusk-coral-algal floatstone to rudstone (30%)
(2) mollusk-coral-red algae rudstone (23%)
(3) mollusk-coral-algal wackestone to floatstone (23%)
(4) mollusk-coral wackestone (13%)
(5) mollusk-coral mudstone to wackestone (9%)
(6) mollusk mudstone (2%)
Based on grain-sizes in combination with coral identification, the facies represent both lagoonal background sedimentation (mostly fine-grained sediments (matrix >50%)) and event sedimentation (coarse-grained sediment layers composing reefal components).
Six coarser grained layers in muddy background sediments of the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon were interpreted as Holocene tsunami events, based on the increase of allochthonous skeletal material with shallow-water reef affinity such as fragments of shallow-water coral species, coralline red algae, and reef-dwelling foraminifera in these layers, as well as AMS dating:
• Event 1: 420 - 890 yrs BP (655 yrs BP)
• Event 2: 890 - 1560 yrs BP (1225 yrs BP)
• Event 3: 2040 - 2340 yrs BP (2190 yrs BP)
• Event 4: 2420 - 3380 yrs BP (2900 yrs BP)
• Event 5: 3890 - 4330 yrs BP (4110 yrs BP)
• Event 6: 5480 - 5760 yrs BP (5620 yrs BP)
Five of the six layers may be correlated to previously published tsunami events at adjacent coastal research sites. The mid-late Holocene atoll lagoon archive is incomplete though based on the assumption that major earthquakes at the Indonesian subduction zone generated more than six major tsunamis during the past 6.5 kyrs.
According to Gischler (2006), the sediments of the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon can be divided into two areas: (1) a central to marginal deep lagoon with a lateral west-to-east gradient of sediment facies distribution, visible in sections <4 kyrs BP with sedimentary facies of mudstone to wackestone in the western part (e.g., cores 16, 18, and 34) and coarse-grained coral and algal-rich sediments in the eastern part of the lagoon (e.g., cores 30 and 31). (2) A northern enclosed and shallow area between the sand apron and the sand spit accumulating “sandy” sediments of wackestone facies (cores 2, 19, 25, and 26).
Comparing the sediment accumulation data of the lagoon with two reconstructed local sea-level curves, three different sequence-stratigraphical systems tracts are visible: (1) a lowstand systems tract (LST) >10 kyrs BP. Pleistocene brownish soil superposing subaerially exposed Pleistocene reef limestone. (2) A transgressive systems tract (TST) 10-6.5 kyrs BP. A peat layer marks the beginning of the inundation, and the carbonate sedimentation starts with very low sedimentation rates of 0.02 m/kyr. (3) A highstand systems tract (HST) 6.5-0 kyrs BP, further divided into three stages (6.5-3, 3-1, 1-0 kyrs BP). The sea-level rise slowed down, sedimentation rates are increasing continuously up to a maximum of 1.4 m/kyr, the sand spit developed some 4 kyrs BP, the lagoonal circulation got restricted, and the lateral west-to-east gradient of grain-size accumulation started. From 1-0 kyrs BP the sedimentation rates slowed down to modern mean sedimentation rates of 0.6 m/kyr.
Two cores, one core from the center of the lagoon (core 16) and one core from the northern margin of the lagoon (core 19), have been analyzed on diversity and assemblages of benthic foraminifera in high-resolution. The transitions of Ammonia spp. to a more even and diverse fauna marks a significant environmental change at 7.0 kyrs BP in core 16 (onset of a stable environment in the deep lagoon after the sea-level rise slowed down at HST stage 1) and at 4.0 kyrs BP in core 19. A continuing environmental change after 1.4 kyrs BP in core 16 caused the fauna to become more even, a recovery of diversity and a permanent decline of foraminiferal accumulation rate. The changes in the faunas at 4.0 kyrs BP and at 1.4 kyrs BP could be explained with the sand spit formation in the northwestern and western lagoon. The sand spit has apparently acted as an obstacle in lagoonal circulation and might have caused unstable environmental conditions due to a more rapid circulation at the shallow marine site of core 19 and a slowdown of bottom water circulation in the main lagoon (core 16) leading to higher residence times and to lower oxygen and higher nutrient concentrations.
Derivation and characterization of a new filter for nonlinear high-dimensional data assimilation
(2015)
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts with real-world observations to achieve an optimal estimate of the state of a dynamical system. The quality of predictions in nonlinear and chaotic systems such as atmospheric or oceanic circulation is strongly sensitive to the initial conditions. Therefore, beyond the consistent reconstruction of past states, a primary relevance of advanced DA methods concerns the proper model initialization. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and its deterministic variants, mostly square root filters such as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), represent a popular alternative to variational DA schemes. They are applied in a wide range of research and operations. Their forecast step employs an ensemble integration that fully respects the nonlinear nature of the analyzed system. In the analysis step, they implicitly assume the prior state and observation errors to be Gaussian. Consequently, in nonlinear systems, the mean and covariance of the analysis ensemble are biased and these filters remain suboptimal. In contrast, the fully nonlinear, non-Gaussian particle filter (PF) relies on Bayes' theorem without further assumptions, which guarantees an exact asymptotic behavior. However, it is exposed to weight collapse, particularly in higher-dimensional settings, known as the curse of dimensionality.
This work presents a new method to obtain an analysis ensemble with mean and covariance that exactly match the corresponding Bayesian estimates. This is achieved by a deterministic matrix square root transformation of the forecast ensemble, and subsequently a suitable random rotation that significantly contributes to filter stability while preserving the required second-order statistics. The forecast step remains as in the ETKF. The algorithm, which is fairly easy to implement and computationally efficient, is referred to as the nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF). The limitation with respect to fully-nonlinear filtering is that the NETF only considers the mean and covariance of the Bayesian analysis density, neglecting higher-order moments.
The properties and performance of the proposed algorithm are investigated via a set of experiments. The results indicate that such a filter formulation can increase the analysis quality, even for relatively small ensemble sizes, compared to other ensemble filters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios. They also confirm that localization enhances the applicability of this PF-inspired scheme in larger-dimensional systems. Finally, the novel filter is coupled to a large-scale ocean general circulation model with a realistic observation scenario. The NETF remains stable with a small ensemble size and shows a consistent behavior. Additionally, its analyses exhibit low estimation errors, as revealed by a comparison with a free ensemble integration and the ETKF. The results confirm that, in principle, the filter can be applied successfully and as simple as the ETKF in high-dimensional problems. No further modifications are needed, even though the algorithm is only based on the particle weights. Thus, it is able to overcome the curse of dimensionality, even in deterministic systems. This proves that the NETF constitutes a promising and user-friendly method for nonlinear high-dimensional DA.
In the past sixty years, excessive water consumption and dam construction have significantly influenced natural flow regimes and surface freshwater ecosystems throughout China, and thus resulted in serious environmental problems. In order to balance the competing water demands between human and environment and provide knowledge on sustainable water management, assessments on anthropogenic flow alterations and their impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems in China are needed.
In this study, the first evaluation on quantitative relationships between anthropogenic flow alterations and ecological responses in eleven river basins and watersheds in China was performed based on the data that could be obtained from published case studies. Quantitative relationships between changes in average annual discharge, seasonal low flow and seasonal high flow and changes in ecological indicators (fish diversity, fish catch and vegetation cover, etc.) were analyzed. The results showed that changes in riparian vegetation cover as well as changes in fish diversity and fish catch were strongly correlated with the changes in flow magnitude (r = 0.77, 0.66), especially with changes in average annual river discharge. In addition, more than half of the variations in vegetation cover could be explained by changes in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.63) and roughly 50 % changes in fish catch in arid and semi-arid region and 60% changes of fish catch in humid region could be related to alterations in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.53, 0.58).
In a supplementary analysis of this study, the first estimation on quantitative relationships between decreases in native fish species richness and anthropogenic flow alterations in 34 river basins and sub-basins in China was conducted. Linear relationships between losses of native fish species and five ecologically relevant flow indicators were analyzed by single and multiple regression models. For the single regression analysis, significant linear relationships were detected for the indicators of long-term average annual discharge (ILTA) and statistical low flow Q90 (IQ90). For the multiple regressions, no indicator other than ILTA has significant relationships with changes in number of fish species mainly due to collinearity. Two conclusions emerged from the analysis: 1) losses of fish species were positively correlated with changes in ILTA in China and 2) indicator of ILTA was dominant over other flow indicators included in this research for the given dataset. These results provide a guideline for the sustainable water resources management in rivers with high risk of fish extinction in China.
Diese Diplomarbeit untersucht die Güte eines globalen Datensatzes (IA), der die monatliche Ausdehnung der terrestrischen Oberflächengewässer für den Zeitraum von 1993 bis 2004 beinhaltet. IA ist aus komplementären, räumlich geringauflösenden Satellitendaten generiert. Die Wasserausdehnungen werden als prozentuale Flächenanteile von 0,5°-Gitterzellen angegeben. IA wäre durch seine monatliche Dynamik zur Kalibrierung und Validierung eines globalen Modells von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet. Im Rahmen dieser Diplomarbeit werden die Wasserbedeckungen aus IA in einzelnen 0,5°-Zellen zu mehreren Zeitpunkten mithilfe von räumlich hochauflösenden Satellitenbildern des Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) validiert. Aus Gründen der Effizienz (Minimierung des Speicheraufwands und der Verarbeitungszeit) wird nur ein einziger ETM+ Kanal im mittleren Infrarot zur Bestimmung der Wasserbedeckung verwendet: Band 5. Durch überwachte Klassifikationen wird der Anteil der Wasserflächen an der Gesamtfläche der 0,5°-Zellen ermittelt. Insgesamt werden 262 Klassifikationen in vier Untersuchungsgebieten durchgeführt. Zwischen den prozentualen Wasserbedeckungen aus IA und den ETM+ (Band 5)-Validierungsdaten werden häufige und unregelmäßige Abweichungen festgestellt. Die maximalen absoluten Abweichungen betragen mehr als 60%. Aufgrund dieser Ergebnisse sind die IA-Wasserausdehnungen nur sehr begrenzt als Validierungsdaten für die Modellierung von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet.
In situ rainwater harvesting has a long history in arid and semi-arid regions of the world buffering water shortages for human consumption and agriculture. In the context of an Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Cuvelai Basin in northern Namibia, roof top rainwater harvesting is being introduced to a rural community for the irrigation of household scale gardens for the cultivation of horticulture products. This study elaborates how harvested rainwater can be used for garden irrigation in a sustainable manner evaluating ecologic, economic and social implications. Considering local conditions eight cropping scenarios were designed, including different criteria as well as one and two annual planting seasons. These schemes were tested under present climate conditions and under three future climate change scenarios for 2050 with the help of a tank model designed to model monthly tank inflows and outflows. Special attention was laid on risk and uncertainty aspects of varying inter-annual and interseasonal precipitation and future climate change. A framework for the assessment of sustainability was adapted to the purposes of this study and indicators have been developed in order to assess the cropping and irrigation schemes for sustainability.
The study found that with the given tank size of 30 m³, depending on crop scenario, under optimized conditions a garden area of 60 to 90 m³ can be irrigated. The choice of crops highly impacts water use efficiency and economic profitability, compared to the considerably lower impact of amount of annual planting seasons and future climate change. In the case of worsening future climate conditions, adaptation measures need to be taken as especially the economic as well as the environmental situation are expected to exacerbate due to expected decreases in yields and revenues. Already under present conditions however, the economic dimension represents the most limiting factor to sustainability, particularly due to the excessive investment costs of the rainwater harvesting and gardening facility. Nonetheless, rainwater harvesting in combination with gardening can be regarded as successful in securing household nutrition, providing sufficient horticulture products for household consumption or market sale. At the same time with the optimal choice of crops the investment costs can be recovered within the end of the lifespan of the facility.
140 Liter Wasser werden für die Herstellung einer Tasse Kaffee benötigt, 1.300 Liter Wasser für ein Kilo Gerste und 3.400 Liter Wasser für ein Kilo Reis. Diese Zahlen mögen im ersten Moment unglaubwürdig erscheinen, doch sie entsprechen der Wirklichkeit. Für die Herstellung von nahezu allen Produkten wird Wasser in teils sogar sehr großen Mengen benötigt. In dem Endprodukt jedoch findet sich meist nur ein kleiner Teil des ursprünglich eingesetzten Wassers in seiner physischen Form wieder. Der überwiegende Anteil wurde während des Produktionsprozesses verdunstet oder zur Kühlung eingesetzt und wird daher als „virtuelles Wasser“ bezeichnet. Aufgrund des Exports und Imports von Produkten im Zuge des internationalen Handels kommt es somit auch zu Strömen von virtuellem Wasser zwischen den einzelnen Ländern. In dieser Bachelorarbeit wird der virtuelle Wasserhandel mit 23 verschiedenen Feldfrüchten mit dem Fokus auf Deutschland für den Zeitraum von 1998 bis 2002 untersucht. In die Berechnung dieser virtuellen Wasserströme ist ein neuartiges Modell eingegangen, das Global Crop Water Model (GCWM), welches den virtuellen Wassergehalt für unterschiedliche Feldfruchtgruppen global für jede 5-Minuten-Zelle auf Basis detaillierter Daten berechnet. Dank dieses Modells ist es möglich, eine Trennung zwischen dem virtuellen Wasser, welches aus der Nutzung des Niederschlagswassers und dem virtuellen Wasser, welches aus der Bewässerung von Ackerflächen resultiert, vorzunehmen und diese getrennt von einander zu analysieren. Mittels der Verwendung der Handelsstatistik Comtrade der Vereinten Nationen lässt sich aus den Ergebnissen des GCWM der virtuelle Wasserhandel darstellen. Es zeigt sich, dass Deutschland das meiste Wasser in seiner virtuellen Form nach Algerien, Saudi-Arabien, Belgien und in die Niederlande exportiert, wohingegen aus Brasilien, den USA, Frankreich und der Elfenbeinküste die größten virtuellen Wassermengen importiert werden.
Long-term average groundwater recharge representing the sustainable groundwater resources is modeled as a 0.5° by 0.5° grid on global scale by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. Due to uncertainties of estimating groundwater recharge, especially in semiarid and arid regions, independent estimates are used for calibrating the model. This work compiled a new set of independent groundwater recharge estimates based on a work of Scanlon et al. (2006). The 59 independent estimates, together with an already existing independent estimates compilation, are used for the evaluation of two WGHM variants; one variant is modeling with an improved more realistically distributed daily precipitation dataset.
The objective of this thesis is the evaluation of the modeled data of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). The analysis of the impact of the new Watch Forcing Data (WFD) precipitation dataset on the modeled groundwater recharge tends to result in lower values in humid and higher values in (semi-)arid regions compared to the WGHM standard variant. Comparing both WGHM variants to the independent estimates compilations, representing (semi-)arid regions, the WGHM variant shows over- and underestimations especially of the low values and the WGHM WFD variant shows a bias toward overestimation especially for values below 4 mm/yr. The analysis of texture, hydrogeology and vegetation/ land cover could not give satisfying explanations for the discrepancies, but derived from the groundwater recharge measurement methods analysis indirect/ localized recharge seems to be a significant factor causing underestimations, as resulted in the comparison of the independent estimates based on Scanlon et al. 2006 with the WGHM variants.
Die vorliegende Diplomarbeit beschäftigt sich mit dem Vergleich des ASTER GDEM und SRTM, zweier kostenlos verfügbarer, digitaler Geländehöhenmodelle mit nahezu globaler Abdeckung. Die Untersuchungsgebiete befinden sich im Kleinwalsertal (Österreich) und in Südhessen (Deutschland). Der Vergleich der Geländehöhendaten erfolgt durch die Ermittlung der Höhenabweichung zu Referenzhöhen, die aus hochauflösenden amtlichen Geländemodellen ermittelt wurden. Die Höhenabweichung wurde zudem für bestimmte geomorphologische Oberflächenformen und Landbedeckungen ermittelt. Des Weiteren werden die Geländehöhendaten auf ihre Eignung für geomorphometrische und hydrologische Analysen bewertet.
Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts „Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen in Fließgewässern“ (INTAFERE) am Institut für Physische Geographie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt erstellt. In INTAFERE wurde das Gefährdungspotenzial von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen (MOF) für aquatische Ökosysteme und die natürlichen Wasserressourcen in integrierter und partizipativer Art und Weise untersucht. MOF sind chemische Substanzen, die in Alltagsprodukten enthalten sind und durch unterschiedliche Eintragsfade in unbekannten Mengen in Oberflächengewässer eingetragen werden. Problematisch sind aus Umweltgesichtspunkten ihre Eigenschaften: sie besitzen im Wasser eine hohe Mobilität und sind schwer abbaubar. Dies führt zu einer Persistenz über lange Zeiträume. Für einige dieser Substanzen wurde zudem gezeigt, dass sie in sehr geringen Konzentrationen biologisch aktiv sind und für aquatische Ökosysteme eine Gefahr darstellen. In INTAFERE wurden drei zentrale Ziele verfolgt: Charakterisierung des Problemfeldes MOF, Erzeugung von praxisrelevantem Wissen für das Management von MOF und Entwicklung einer Softwareanwendung, die gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse durch eine transparente Darstellung der Wirkungszusammenhänge im Problemfeld unterstützt. Um einen Beitrag für die Erfüllung der Ziele zu leisten, war es die Aufgabe der Verfasserin, eine Akteursanalyse und -modellierung durchzuführen sowie Zukunftsszenarien im Bereich der MOF zu entwickeln. Dafür existierte keine adäquate Methodik, daher verfolgt die Dissertation zum einen die Entwicklung einer Methodik und zum anderen deren Anwendung im Kontext des Projektes INTAFERE. Da im Forschungsprozess die Durchführung von Analysen, die wissenschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Sichtweise der Problematik sowie die Erarbeitung von praktischen Lösungen im Mittelpunkt standen, wurde eine transdisziplinäre Herangehensweise gewählt. Ziel war es, eine Methodik zu entwerfen, die sowohl eine Entwicklung von Szenarien als auch eine Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen umfasst. Eine Modellierung und Visualisierung von Handlungsentscheidungen ist notwendig, um Strategien für ein Umweltproblem für verschiedene Szenarien zu ermitteln, und damit einen Lernprozess der Stakeholder zu initiieren. Dies wurde mit der transdisziplinären Methode „Akteursbasierte Modellierung“ umgesetzt. Hierbei wurden insbesondere Aspekte der Problemwahrnehmung von Akteuren und deren Darstellung, der partizipativen Szenarienentwicklung sowie der semi-quantitativen Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen berücksichtigt. Die Verfasserin hat mit der semi-quantitativen akteursbasierten Modellierung eine Methode erarbeitet und getestet, die bisher unverbundene Komponenten (wie die Software Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) und die Szenarienentwicklung) zusammenführt. Um Handlungsentscheidungen unter verschiedenen Szenarien zu modellieren hat die Autorin eine sequentielle Modellierung entwickelt, die mit der Software DANA durchgeführt werden kann. Die dafür notwendige Weiterentwicklung von DANA wurde von Dr. Pieter Bots (TU Delft) umgesetzt. Die akteursbasierte Modellierung läuft in drei methodischen Schritten ab: 1. Modellierung von Akteurs-Sichtweisen in Form von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse, aufbauend auf Ergebnissen von qualitativen, leitfaden-gestützten Expertengesprächen (= Akteursmodellierung), 2. partizipative Szenarienentwicklung mit den Akteuren und 3. Zusammenführung der Ergebnisse der Akteursmodellierung und der Szenarienentwicklung und darauf aufbauend eine sequentielle Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen und deren Auswirkungen auf Schlüsselfaktoren. Im Zuge der Anwendung auf das Problemfeld der MOF wurde für folgende Akteure jeweils ein Wahrnehmungsgraph modelliert: Obere Wasserbehörde, Umweltbundesamt, Umwelt- und Verbraucherschutzorganisationen, Wasserversorger sowie für die Hersteller von verschiedenen MOF, weiterhin für die European Flame Retardants Association und die Weiterverarbeitende Industrie. Das Ergebnis der Szenarienentwicklung waren vier Szenarien: ein Gesundheitsszenario, unter der Annahme von hohen lokalen Umweltstandards durch nachhaltigkeitsorientierte KonsumentInnen, ein Umweltszenario, in dem eine starke Regulierung und nachhaltigkeitsorientierter Konsum Hand in Hand gehen, ein Globalisierungsszenario, in dem Wirtschaftsmacht und preisbewusste KonsumentInnen statt staatliche Regulierung vorherrschen und ein Technikszenario, unter der Annahme, dass Kläranlagen, bedingt durch eine starke Regulierung, aufgerüstet werden. Bei der Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen wurden die Wahrnehmungsgraphen und die vier Szenarien miteinander verknüpft. Pro Substanz wurde ein Modell entwickelt, welches die wichtigsten Systemkomponenten in einer angemessenen Komplexität umfasst und die von den Akteuren gemeinsam getragene Einschätzung der Wirkungsbeziehungen darstellt. Insgesamt wurden 16 Modelle entwickelt. Basierend auf den simulierten Akteurshandlungen wurden relativen Veränderungen der Schlüsselfaktoren Produktion, Import und Leistungsfähigkeit der Kläranlagen für die vier genannten Szenarien berechnet. In Zusammenarbeit mit Pieter Bots konnten algorithmische Beiträge zur Analyse- und Modellierungssoftware DANA getestet und verbessert werden. Da keine vollständige und zugleich leicht verständliche Einführung zu DANA vorlag, wurde für Nutzer im Rahmen dieser Dissertation eine Anleitung verfasst, die die Modellierung von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse sowie alle Schritte der akteursbasierten Modellierung mit DANA erläutert.
The design of rainwater harvesting based gardens requires considering current climate but also climate change during the lifespan of the facility. The goal of this study is to present an approach for designing garden variants that can be safely supplied with harvested rainwater, taking into account climate change and adaptation measures. In addition, the study presents a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on rainwater harvesting based gardening. Results of the study may not be accurate due to the assumptions made for climate projections and may need to be further refined. We used a tank flow model and an irrigation water model. Then we established three simple climate scenarios and analyzed the impact of climate change on harvested rain and horticulture production for a semi-arid region in northern Namibia. In the two climate scenarios with decreased precipitation and medium/high temperature increase; adaptation measures are required to avoid substantial decreases in horticulture production. The study found that the most promising adaptation measures to sustain yields and revenues are a more water efficient garden variant and an enlargement of the roof size. The proposed measures can partly or completely compensate the negative impacts of climate change.
Nach dem Reaktorunfall in Fukushima im März 2011 und dem darauf folgendem Beschluss in Deutschland, den Atomausstieg zu vollziehen, wird dort – sowohl auf nationaler, als auch auf regionaler Ebene – über eine alternative Energieversorgung diskutiert. Für die vorliegende Arbeit stellten sich die Fragen, wie die energiepolitische Ausgangssituation in Hessen aussieht und welche Potenziale erneuerbarer Energien in Hessen vorhanden sind. Mit einer Politikfeldanalyse wurde untersucht, welche Akteure am Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien beteiligt sind, wie diese interagieren, welche Instrumente zur Förderung erneuerbarer Energien in Hessen existieren und welche Erfolgsbedingungen und Restriktionen sich daraus ergeben. Ferner wurde anhand der jeweiligen Energiekonzepte die Frage verfolgt, welche Zukunftspotenziale für erneuerbare Energien die relevanten Akteure sehen und welche energiepolitischen Maßnahmen getroffen werden müssen, um den Ausbau zu forcieren. Bei einem Vergleich des Bundeslandes Hessen mit den Ländern Niedersachsen, Nordrhein-Westfalen und Sachsen-Anhalt wurde festgestellt, welche energiepolitischen Maßnahmen in diesen Bundesländern erfolgreich waren und auf Hessen übertragbar sind. Einerseits wurde aufgezeigt, dass Bemühungen den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien zu forcieren erkennbar sind. Anderseits konnten ebenso die restriktiven Rahmenbedingungen dargestellt werden, die einen durchschlagenden Erfolg des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien bisher behindern. Die Untersuchung der Energiekonzepte hat ergeben, dass die Akteure die Zukunftspotenziale erneuerbarer Energien sehr unterschiedlich sehen und gewichten – sowohl was das zeitliche Ausbauziel als auch die Potenziale der jeweiligen erneuerbaren Energieträger betrifft.
Bayesian Networks are computer-based environmental models that are frequently used to support decision-making under uncertainty. Under data scarce conditions, Bayesian Networks can be developed, parameterized, and run based on expert knowledge only. However, the efficiency of expert-based Bayesian Network modeling is limited by the difficulty in deriving model inputs in the time available during expert workshops. This thesis therefore aimed at developing a simple and robust method for deriving conditional probability tables from expert estimates in a time-efficient way. The design and application of this new elicitation and conversion method is demonstrated using a case study in Xinjiang, Northwest China. The key characteristics of this method are its time-efficiency and the approach to use different conversion tables based on varying levels of confidence. Although the method has its limitations, e.g. it can only be applied for variables with one conditioning variable; it provides the opportunity to support the parameterization of Bayesian Networks which would otherwise remain half-finished due to time constraints. In addition, a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, is used to compare Bayesian Network types and software to improve the presentation clarity of large Bayesian Networks. Both case studies aimed at gaining insights on how to improve the applicability of Bayesian Networks to support environmental management.
Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global Historical Irrigation Dataset (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arc-minute resolution. We collected subnational irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 112 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining subnational irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to subnational irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land in the western United States as shown on historical maps. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and river discharge decreased from 1900–1950 whereas aridity decreased from 1950–2005. The dataset and its documentation are made available in an open data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi:10.13019/M2MW2G).
The three-dimensional quantification of small-scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents the first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe (ESa Sounder Campaign) and TACTS/ESMVal (TACTS: Transport and composition in the upper troposphere/lowermost stratosphere, ESMVal: Earth System Model Validation) aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics-mode data characterized by a medium-spectral and a very-high-spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3, and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high-resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal, a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere was performed. It was possible to reconstruct this filament at an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 × 20 km horizontally.
Ternary aerosol nucleation experiments were conducted in the CLOUD chamber at CERN in order to investigate the influence of ions on new particle formation. Neutral and ion-induced nucleation experiments, i.e., with and without the presence of ions, were carried out under precisely controlled conditions. The sulphuric acid concentration was measured with a Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS) during the new particle formation experiments. The added ternary trace gases were ammonia (NH3), dimethylamine (DMA, C2H7N) or oxidised products of pinanediol (PD, C10H18O2). When pinanediol was introduced into the chamber, an increase in the mass spectrometric signal used to determine the sulphuric acid concentration (m/z 97, i.e., HSO4−) was observed due to ions from the CLOUD chamber. The enhancement was only observed during ion-induced nucleation measurements by using either galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or the proton synchrotron (PS) pion beam for the ion generation, respectively. The ion effect typically involved an increase in the apparent sulphuric acid concentration by a factor of ~2 to 3 and was qualitatively verified by the ion measurements by an Atmospheric Pressure interface-Time Of Flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. By applying a high voltage (HV) clearing field inside the CLOUD chamber the ion effect on the CIMS measurement was completely eliminated since, under these conditions, small ions are swept from the chamber in about one second. In order to exclude the ion effect and to provide corrected sulphuric acid concentrations during the GCR and PS beam nucleation experiments, a parameterisation was derived that utilizes the trace gas concentrations and the UV light intensity as input parameters. Atmospheric sulphuric acid measurements with a CIMS showed an insignificant ion effect.