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Background: Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.
Methodology: A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.
Principal findings: We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.
Conclusion: Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.
Terrestrial climate and ecosystem evolution during ‘Greenhouse Earth’ phases of the early Paleogene remain incompletely known. Particularly, paleobotanical records from high southern latitudes are giving only limited insights into the Paleocene and early Eocene vegetation of the region. Hence, data from continuous well-calibrated sequences are required to make progress with the reconstruction of terrestrial climate and ecosystem dynamics from the southern latitudes during the early Paleogene.
In order to elucidate the terrestrial conditions from the high southern latitudes during the early Paleogene, terrestrial palynology was applied in the present study to two well-dated deep-marine sediment cores located at the Australo-Antarctic region: (i) IODP Site U1356 (Wilkes Land margin, East Antarctica) and (ii) ODP Site 1172 (East Tasman Plateau, southwest Pacific Ocean). The studied sequence from IODP Site U1356 comprises mid-shelfal sediments from the early to middle Eocene (53.9 – 46 million years ago [Ma]). For the ODP Site 1172, the studied succession is characterized by sediments deposited in shallow marine environments of the middle Paleocene to the early Eocene (60.7 – 54.2 Ma).
Based on the obtained pollen and spores (sporomorphs) results from the studied sequences of Site U1356 and Site 1172, this study aims to: (1) decipher the terrestrial climate conditions along the Australo-Antarctic region from the middle Paleocene to the middle Eocene; (2) evaluate the structure, diversity and compositional patterns of forests that throve in the Australo-Antarctic region during the early Paleogene; (3) understand the response of forests from the high southern latitudes to the climate dynamics from the early Paleogene; (4) establish a connection between the generated terrestrial palynomorph data and published Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) from the same cores.
To decipher the terrestrial climatic conditions on the Australo-Antarctic region, this study relies on the nearest living relative (NLR) concept that assumes that fossil taxa have similar climate requirements as their modern counterparts. This approach was applied to the sporomorph results of Site U1356 and Site 1172, following mainly the bioclimatic analysis. With regard to the structure and diversity patterns of the vegetation from the same region, the present study presents combined qualitative (i.e., reconstruction of the vegetation based mainly on the habitats of the known living relatives) and quantitative (i.e., application of ordination techniques, rarefaction and diversity indices) analyses of the fossil sporomorphs results.
The overall results from the paleoclimatic and vegetation reconstruction approaches applied in the present study, indicate that temperate and paratropical forests during the early Paleogene throve under different climatic conditions on the Wilkes Land margin and on Tasmania, at paleolatitudes of ∼70°S and ∼65°S, respectively.
Specifically, the sporomorph results from Site U1356, suggest that a highly diverse forest similar to present-day forests from New Caledonia was thriving on Antarctica during the early Eocene (53.9 – 51.9 Ma). These forests were characterized by the presence of termophilous taxa that are restricted today to tropical and subtropical settings, notably Bombacoideae, Strasburgeria, Beauprea, Spathiphyllum, Anacolosa and Lygodium. In combination with MBT/CBT paleotemperature results, they provide strong evidence for near-tropical warmth at least in the coastal lowlands along the Wilkes Land margin. The coeval presence of frost tolerant taxa such as Nothofagus, Araucariaceae and Podocarpaceae during the early Eocene on the same record suggests that paratropical forests were thriving along the Wilkes Land margin. Due to the presence of this kind of vegetation, it is possible to suggest that forests in this region were subject to a climatic gradient related to differences in elevation and/or the proximity to the coastline.
By the middle Eocene, the paratropical forests that characterized the vegetation of the early Eocene on the Wilkes Land margin were replaced by low diversity temperate forests dominated by Nothofagus, and similar to present-day cool-temperate forests from New Zealand. The dominance of these forests and the absence of thermophilous elements together with the lower temperatures suggested by the MBT/CBT and the sporomorph-based temperatures indicate consistently cooler conditions during this time interval.
With regard to the sporomorph results of Site 1172, this study suggests that three vegetation types were thriving on Tasmania from the middle Paleocene to the early Eocene under different climatic conditions. During the middle to late Paleocene, warm-temperate forests dominated by Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae were the prevailing vegetation on Tasmania. The dominance of these forests was interrupted by the transient predominance of cool-temperate forests dominated by Nothofagus and Araucariaceae across the middle/late Paleocene transition interval (~59.5 to ~59.0 Ma). This cool-temperate forest was characterized by a lack of frost-sensitive elements (i.e., palms and cycads) indicating cooler conditions with harsher winters on Tasmania during this time interval. By the early Eocene, and linked with the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Paleocene temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms were replaced by paratropical rainforests with the remarkable presence of the tropical mangrove palm Nypa during the PETM and the earliest Eocene. The overall results from Site U1356 and Site 1172, provide a new assessment of the terrestrial climatic conditions in the Australo-Antarctic region for validating climate models and understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the climate dynamics of the early Paleogene on southern latitudes.
The climatic conditions in the higher latitudes during the early Paleogene were further unravelled by comparing the obtained terrestrial and marine results. The integration of the obtained sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based SSTs from Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics were closely linked with the temperature evolution from the Australo-Antarctic region. Moreover, the comparison of TEX86-based SSTs and sporomorph-based climatic estimations from Site 1172 suggests a warm-season bias of both calibrations of TEX86 (i.e., TEX86Hand TEX86H), when this proxy is applied to high southern latitudes records of the early Paleogene.
To reconstruct ocean circulation changes during specific periods of Earth history, benthic and planktic foraminifera were used as proxies in the different parts of this thesis. Both studied time periods, the Late Cretaceous and the early Pleistocene, are characterized by long-term climate cooling and major changes in ocean circulation. The first part of this thesis concentrated in the Late Cretaceous. During the Late Cretaceous long-term cooling phase, benthic foraminiferal δ18O values show a positive shift lasting about 1.5 Myr (71.5–70 Ma). This shift can be observed on a global scale and has become known as the Campanian-Maastrichtian Boundary Event (CMBE). It is proposed that this δ18O excursion is influenced either by changing intermediate- to deep-water circulation or by temporal build-up of Antarctic ice sheets. Benthic foraminiferal assemblage counts from a southern high-latitudinal site near Antarctica (ODP Site 690) are analyzed to test if the influence of the CMBE on the benthic species composition. One of the two discussed hypotheses for the causation of the δ18O transition is a change in intermediate- to deep-water circulation from low-latitude to high-latitude water masses. This change would result in cooler temperatures, higher oxygen concentration, and possibly lower organic-matter flux at the seafloor, causing a major benthic foraminiferal assemblage change. Another possible explanation of the δ18O transition of the CMBE is significant ice formation on Antarctica. However no major benthic foraminiferal assemblage change would be expected in this case. The benthic foraminiferal assemblage of Site 690 shows a separation of the studied succession into two parts with significantly different species composition. The older part (73.0–70.5 Ma) is dominated by species, which are typical for lower bottom water oxygen concentration and more common in low-latitude assemblages. Species dominating the younger part (70.0–68.0 Ma) are indicators for well-oxygenated bottom waters and more common in high-latitude assemblages. This change in the benthic foraminiferal assemblages is interpreted to represent a shift of low-latitude toward high-latitude dominated intermediateto deep-water sources. A change in oceanic circulation was therefore at least a major component of the CMBE. The Pacific Ocean contributed significantly to the climatic development during the Late Cretaceous cooling period. The contribution of ocean circulation changes in the Pacific Ocean to the Late Cretaceous climatic development in general and the CMBE and Mid-Maastrichtian Event (MME) in particular, however, is poorly understood. Previously measured high resolution planktic and benthic stable isotope data and a neodymium (Nd) isotope record from the Pacific ODP Site 1210 (Shatsky Rise, tropical Pacific Ocean) for the Campanian to Maastrichtian (69.5 to 72.5 Ma) are used to reconstruct changes in surface- and bottom water temperatures as well as changes in the source region of deep- to intermediate waters [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. The results of the benthic foraminiferal δ18O and Nd isotope records in combination with Nd isotope records from other studies indicate changes in the intensity of intermediate- to deep ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific across the Campanian-Maastrichtian interval [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. During the early Maastrichtian (72.5 to 69.5 Ma), a three-million-year-long period of cooler conditions and a simultaneous change towards less radiogenic Nd isotope signatures is interpreted to represent a period of increased admixture and northward flow of deep waters from the Southern Ocean (Southern Component Water, SCW). This change was probably caused by an intensified formation of deep waters in the Southern Ocean. This was reduced again during the MME (69.5 to 68.5 Ma). This early Maastrichtian cold interval is similar to the CMBEδ13C fall and succeeding δ13C rise towards the MME and is therefore also interpreted to represent tectonically forced, long-term changes in the global carbon cycle and thus a tectonic forcing of the early Maastrichtian climate cooling. Overall, the Campanian-Maastrichtian Nd and stable isotope records of Shatsky Rise indicate changes in ocean circulation that are paralleled by global warming and cooling periods. The fluctuating strength of SCW contribution in the tropical Pacific points towards an increased respectively weakened ocean circulation, which is probably related to the strength of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean [see Appendix 4; Jung et al. 2013]. For this study, the analysis of benthic foraminiferal assemblages of Site 1210 is carried out for the same time interval (69.5 to 72.5 Ma) as Nd and stable isotopes to evaluate the influence of intermediate- to deep ocean circulation changes on the benthic foraminiferal community. The possible reaction of benthic foraminiferal assemblages is compared to the results of stable isotope and neodymium isotopes. The observed changes in species abundances only partly reflect the circulation changes reconstructed with Nd and stable oxygen istopes. For example, Stensioina spp., Aragonia spp. and Lenticulina spp., cold-water preferring species, start to be increasingly abundant at the beginning of enhanced influence of SCW. However, their abundance pattern does not follow the varying strength of the cold SCW influence at Shatsky Rise. Other species prefer lesser oxygen concentrations and warmer bottom water, e.g. Paralabamina spp. and Globorotalites spp. Paralabamina spp. has its highest relativ abundance at the beginning of the studied succession, where the influence of SCW is small. However, this taxa occurs throughout the record, even though the influence of SCW increases. Globorotalites spp. is even most abundance after the CMBE, where bottom waters are till cold and influenced by SCW. This leads to the conclusion that the varying strength of SCW in the tropical Pacific at Shatsky Rise through the studied interval is not facilitating a significant faunal turnover as has been observed at the South Atlantic Site 690 (Chapter 3). These results of the benthic foraminiferal assemblage analysis suggest a rather minor influence of the SCW on the major environmental factors that are generally influencing benthic foraminiferal communities (e.g., oxygen concentration, organic matter flux to the sea floor, bottom-water temperature). The second major part of this thesis focused on the late Pliocene-earliest Pleistocene. The late Pliocene is characterized by a long-term global cooling trend resulting in a major increase of Arctic ice sheets from around 3 Ma onwards, culminating in the Plio-Pleistocene intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. At around 2.7 Ma, large amplitude glacial-interglacial excursions (~1‰ δ18O in benthic foraminiferal calcite) in benthic oxygen isotopes can be observed. Marine isotope stage (MIS) 100 at around 2.55 Ma is the first glacial, when widespread ice rafted debris has been found in sediments in the North Atlantic Ocean. To gain a deeper understanding of the climatic evolution of the latest Pliocene-early Pleistocene, it is necessary to improve the reconstructions of North Atlantic paleohydrography, as the North Atlantic provides a key region for global climate. The consequences of the intensification of Northern Hemisphere on the early Pleistocene North Atlantic thermocline stratification and intermediate waters are still poorly understood. However, surface hydrography, the history of the thermocline and development of North Atlantic intermediate waters are well-studied for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). These well-known mechanisms responsible for the LGM in comparison with the present-day interglacial North Atlantic are used as an analogue for te early Pleistocene glacialinterglacials cycles. In this study, suborbitally resolved stable oxygen and carbon isotope and Mg/Ca records are measured from a deep-dwelling planktic foraminifera (Globorotaliacrassaformis) from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1313 (North Atlantic, 41°N) covering marine oxygen isotope stages MIS 103 to 95 (early Pleistocene, 2.6 to 2.4 Ma). The results are interpreted to represent a change in intermediate-water masses on glacialinterglacial timescales. During glacials geochemical records in G. crassaformis (~500–1000 m) bear the imprint of Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), while during interglacials this species reflects the signature of the influence of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) in combination with the subtropical gyre. The comparison of this data with the published records from G. ruber from the same samples facilitates the reconstruction of glacial-interglacial stratification changes of the upper water column at Site U1313. The results show that larger gradients of temperature, salinity and δ13C prevailed during glacials, suggesting a stronger stratification of the upper water column. This can be seen to indicate glacial-interglacial changes in ntermediate water masses in the North Atlantic similar to those reconstructed for the latest Pleistocene. As an additional proxy, the clumped isotope paleothermometer is applied for the Late Cretaceous study as well as for the early Pleistocene. This proxy is commonly assumed to be independent of other factors than temperature. Clumped isotopes are measured for the Late Cretaceous Site 690 on the planktic foraminiferal species Archaeoglobigerina australis and compared to already existing stable oxygen isotopes of this species. This is assumed to enable the reconstruction of paleotemperature independent of ice volume and therefore contribute to the long-lasting discussion whether there was a temporal ice build-up on Antarctic during the Campanian-Maastrichtian cooling period. For the early Pleistocene, the planktic foraminiferal species G. crassaformis is used from Site U1313 from MIS 99 (interglacial) and MIS 98 (glacial). This provides the opportunity to separate ice volume, salinity and temperature effects on the measured δ18O record of G. crassaformis. The results of the clumped isotope measurements reveal comparatively large standard errors. For the Late Cretaceous the standard error of the clumped isotope measurements proved too large to allow any conclusions on the temperature component on the δ18O record of A. australis. For the early Pleistocene, the temperature difference is also too small to be reconstructed with the standard error of the clumped isotope measurements in this study. Measuring many replicates of one sample would minimize the standard error considerably. However, the amount necessary to measure replicates cannot be gained for either time period, as almost all foraminifera were picked from the respective samples. It is concluded that the respective questions may be solved with a different method of clumped isotope analysis requiring less sample material. This method is, for example, available at the ETH Zurich.
Mantle convection is the process by which heat from the Earth’s core is transferred upwards to the surface and it is accepted to explain the dynamics of the Earth’s interior. On geological time-scales, mantle material flows like a viscous fluid as a consequence of the buoyancy forces arising from thermal expansion. Indeed, mantel convection provides a framework which links together the major disciplines, such as seismology, mineral physics, geochemistry tectonic and geology. The numerical model has been applied to understand the dynamic, structure and evaluation of the Earth, and other terrestrial planets and the investigations continue to explore, different aspects of the mantle convection.
In fact, to model this phenomenon, two complementary approaches are possible. On the one hand, one can solve self-consistently the equations of thermal convection, including parameters and employing physical relationships derived from mineral physics. Our understanding of mantle convection depends ultimately upon the success of such fully self-consistent dynamic models in explaining observable features of the flow. Although, these models presently unable to predict the actual convection pattern of the Earth, they are extremely useful to investigate general characteristics of given physical systems. On the other hand, to permit comparison with specific observables associated with the flow, one can consider a more restricted problem. Instead of focusing on the time evolution of mantle flow, if we know a priori the temperature - and hence presumably the density - anomalies that drive the convection, we can try to build a snapshot of the present-day flow pattern, consistent with those anomalies, that can successfully predict the observables. As matter of fact, the aim of this study is to investigate both approaches in comparison with the main geophysical constraints on mantle structure. These constraints include the geoid anomalies, the dynamic surface and core-mantle boundary topography and tectonic plate motions.
The most appropriate mathematical basis functions for describing a bounded and continuous function on a spherical surface are spherical harmonics. We may therefore expand the geodynamic observables in terms of spherical harmonics. We have investigated two methods of the global spherical harmonic analysis by specific attention to the dynamic geoid computation of the geodynamic models. The first method is the quadrature method in which the loss of the orthogonality of the Legendre functions in transition from continues to discrete case is the major drawback to the method. Particularly, we showed that in the absence of the tesseral harmonics, quadrature formulation leads to obtain inaccurate results. The second method is the least-squares which can be considered as the best linear unbiased estimator that provides the exact results. We showed that even with a low resolution grid data it is possible to reconstruct the data and achieve an accurate result by using this method, which is extremely remarkable in three-dimensional global convection studies. However, special care has to be taken since there is some source of errors that might influence the efficiency of this method.
In general, to better understanding of the properties of the mantle, it is useful to assess observable characteristics of plumes in the mantle, including geoid, topography and heat flow anomalies. However, only few studies exist on geoid and topography for axi-symmetric convection and their models were restricted to isoviscous (or stratified) mantle and low Rayleigh numbers. We studied fully coupled depth and temperature dependent Arrhenius type of viscosity in axi-symmetric spherical shell geometry in order to investigate the shape of geoid anomalies and dynamic topography above a plume. Indeed, the topography and geoid anomalies produced from plumes are sensitive to rheology of the mantle and rheology of the plume; both have effects on shape and amplitude of the geoid anomalies. As results we are able to define different classes of plumes by their geoid signals.
Mainly depth-dependent viscosity models show a geoid with negative sign above the plume which can turn to the positive sign by decrease the viscosity contrast. This can be considered as a transition between the strongly depth dependent and the constant viscosity case. Our results basically support the idea by Morgan [1965] and McKenzie [1977]. They have shown the magnitude and even the sign of the total gravity anomaly depend on the spatial variation in effective viscosity. In addition, Hager [1984] has concluded that the total gravity field is depend on the radial distribution of effective viscosity, and a small change in viscosity contrast leads to varying sign of the response function.
In the case of temperature-dependent viscosity, the formation of an immobile lithosphere is a natural result, and the flow as well as the total geoid becomes strongly time dependent. When we increase the activation energy, all geoids associated with the first arriving plumes look like bell shaped whereas for typical plumes, after reaching a statistical steady state, bell-shaped geoids with decreasing amplitude as well as linear flank shaped geoids are observed. It is surprising that in spite of large differences in lateral and depth varying viscosities, the shapes of the geoid anomalies remained rather similar. We also identified different behaviors in the combined model with temperature-and pressure-dependent viscosity. In fact, in spite of the strongly different rheology, the geoid anomalies in all cases were surprisingly similar. Furthermore, we proposed a scaling law for the geoid which makes our results directly applicable to other planets. Moreover, we can apply the results of our calculation to find relations between different rheology and sub-lid temperature, since we know that the mantle temperature can change significantly with variation in pressure-temperature dependent viscosity. It is also possible to define a range of stagnant lid thickness related to the amplitude of the geoid which can be reasonable for study of the lid thickness in Venus or Mars.
Nevertheless, in these series of models, we simplified a number of complexities within the Earth. One of the most important of such simplification is the Boussinesq approximation. This approximation is valid if the temperature scale height (i.e. the depth over which temperature increases by a factor of “ ” due to adiabatic compression) is much greater than the convection depth. However, a temperature scale height in the Earth’s mantle is at best only slightly greater than the mantle depth. Hence, the Boussinesq approximation could mask some very important stratification and compressibility effects that influence both the spatial and temporal structure of the convection. Therefore, in more advance models we considered compressibility in our mantle convection models, assuming that density vary both radially and laterally, being determined as a function of pressure and temperature through an appropriate equation of the state. Moreover, thermodynamic properties assumed to be a function of depth.
We examined the details of the structure of the spherical axi-symmetric Anelastic Liquid Approximation model (ALA) with special attention to the Arrhenius rheology, and compare it to the cases of compressible convection without depth dependent thermodynamical properties, and to cases of the extended Boussinesq approximation. At the same time, the effects of the interaction between temperature and pressure-dependent viscosity and thermodynamic parameters in the compressible mantle convection on the geoid and topography have been studied. We showed that assuming compressible convection with depth-dependent thermodynamic properties strongly influence the geoid undulations. Using compressible convection with constant thermodynamic properties is physically inconsistent and may lead to spurious results for the geoid and convection pattern. Indeed, by a systematic study of different approaches of compressibility in the spherical shell convection for different Arrhenius viscosity laws we proved that only in the unrealistic case of zero activation energy the different compressibility modes result in comparable convection and geoid patterns. In all other rheological cases, large differences have been obtained, that stressing the important role of consistent compressible thermodynamic properties for mantle convection.
In addition, we examine the impact of compressibility as well as different rheologies on the power law relation that connects the Nusselt number to the Rayleigh number. We have discovered that the power law index of the relationship is controlled by the rheology, independent of which approximation is used. Instead, the bound of this relation is controlled by a combination of different approximation and rheology.
Next, instead of focusing on the time evolution of mantle flow, we have carried out three-dimensional spherical shell models of mantle circulation to investigate the effects of joint radial and lateral viscosity variations on the Earth’s non-hydrostatic geoid, surface and core-mantle boundary topographies. These models include realistic lateral viscosity variations (LVV) in the lithosphere, upper mantle and lower mantle in combination with different stratified viscosity structures. We have demonstrated that the contradictory results concerning the effects of LVV can be clarified by the most straight-forward problem in geoid modeling; namely, rather poorly known stratified viscosity structure. We explored three classes of dynamic geoid models due to lateral viscosity variations. In the first class, the LVV strongly improved the fit to the observed geoid. Indeed, when the viscosity contrast between lower and upper mantles is not large enough to produce a good fit to geoid the LVVs are able to perform this action by adjusting amplitudes, so that it becomes comparable with observation. In the second class, inducing the LVV moderately improved the fit. Actually, when the geoid induced by a stratified viscosity structure already has a good correlation with observation, then the LVV causes its amplitude to further improve. In the last class, if the viscosity contrast between upper and lower mantle would be high enough, inducing LVV deteriorate the fit to the observed geoid.. Indeed, depending on the stratified viscosity, inducing the LVV may take place in one of these categories.
We also quantified the effects of LVV in the mantle and lithosphere individually. We found that the presence of LVV in the mantle (upper and lower) improves the fit to the observed geoid regardless of stratified viscosity. While LVV in the lithosphere is a crucial parameter, and dependent of the stratified viscosity, may increase or decrease the geoid fit. In fact, when the lower mantle considers being viscous enough, it would support the negative buoyancy of subducting slabs. Thus, it transmits some of the stress back to the top boundary and causes a weak coupling between slab and surface. Therefore, by including the low viscous plate boundaries in this model, the slabs and overriding plates decouples and the fit to the observed geoid degrades. In contrast, when the lower mantle viscosity is not sufficiently stiff, the presence of the low viscous plate boundaries assists to weaken the strong mechanical coupling between slab and surface. Hence, a better fit achieved.
Die Seismizität des nördlichen Oberrheingrabens (ORG) ist aufgrund seines Potentials für die geothermische Nutzung und der damit möglicherweise verbundenen seismischen Risiken von allgemeinem Interesse. Detaillierte Kenntnisse der natürlichen Seismizität erlauben Rückschlüsse auf aktive Störungszonen und Spannungsverhältnisse im Untergrund. Sie liefert außerdem wichtige Hintergrundinformationen für die Abschätzung einer möglichen induzierten Seismizität. Untersuchungen zur Charakterisierung der natürlichen Seismizität, des Spannungsfeldes und der seismischen Gefährdung des nördlichen ORG sind Hauptbestandteil dieser Arbeit, die innerhalb des BMU/BMWi-Projektes SiMoN (Seismisches Monitoring im Zusammenhang mit der geothermischen Nutzung des Nördlichen Oberrheingrabens) entstanden ist. Aufzeichnungen eines Netzwerkes aus 13 seismischen Stationen dienen als Datengrundlage zur Charakterisierung der Seismizität innerhalb eines etwa 50 x 60 km2 großen Areals im dichtbesiedelten Rhein-Main Gebiet. Untersuchungen der Rauschbedingungen zur Bewertung der Eignung der Stationsorte für das Aufzeichnen der natürlichen Seismizität lieferten bei den Stationen auf felsigem Untergrund sehr gute spektrale Eigenschaften, während alle Stationen im Sediment des ORG deutlich höhere Rauschanteile aufzeigten. Anhand systematischer Messungen in flachen Bohrlöchern konnten laterale und vertikale Variationen des seismischen Rauschens beschrieben werden und dadurch eine Verbesserung der Detektionsschwelle beobachtet werden.
Es werden die Ergebnisse des seismischen Monitorings für den Zeitraum November 2010 bis Dezember 2014 dargestellt. Die Detektionsschwelle für das Netzwerk liegt bei einer Lokalmagnitude von etwa 0,5, die Vollständigkeitsmagnitude beträgt Mc = 1,2. Seit Beginn der Datenaufzeichnung konnten 243 Erdbeben im unmittelbaren Bereich des Stations-netzwerkes mit Magnituden im Bereich zwischen ML = -0,5 und ML = 4,2 lokalisiert werden. Die Epizentren liegen hauptsächlich entlang der östlichen Grabenschulter und im Graben; entlang der westlichen Grabenschulter ist die seismische Aktivität deutlich geringer. Eine weitere aktive Region konnte entlang der südlichen Ausläufer des Taunus im Nordwesten des Untersuchungsgebietes identifiziert werden. Die Seismizität erstreckt sich bis in eine Tiefe von 24 km mit einem Maximum der hypozentralen Tiefenverteilung im Bereich von 12-18 km. Im Graben ist die Seismizität dabei auf die tiefere Kruste im Bereich von 9-24 km beschränkt. Das Fehlen von seismischer Aktivität in der oberen Kruste bis ca. 9 km Tiefe im Graben könnte auf eine aseismische Deformation in diesem Tiefenbereich hindeuten. Seit Mai 2014 konnte südöstlich von Darmstadt bei der Ortschaft Ober-Ramstadt zum ersten Mal seit fast 150 Jahren eine Schwarmbebenaktivität im Bereich des nördlichen ORG registriert werden. Die Hypozentren sind in zwei Cluster unterteilt, die räumlich voneinander getrennt sind und unterschiedliche Aktivitätsraten aufweisen. Die Herdtiefen liegen im Bereich von 1-8 km.
Zusätzlich zu den Daten des SiMoN Netzwerkes wurden Aufzeichnungen der regionalen Erdbebendienste in Herdflächenanalysen für insgesamt 58 Erdbeben einbezogen. Die Herdflächenlösungen weisen überwiegend Blattverschiebungen (Strike-slip-Mechanismen) auf. Auf- und Abschiebungen spielen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Die berechneten Herdmechanismen bestätigen, dass sich das Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG transtensional verhält, im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte jedoch eine deutlich ausgeprägte Blattverschiebungskomponente identifiziert werden. Zur Bestimmung der Hauptspannungsachsen wurde eine Inversion der Herdflächenlösungen durchgeführt und die Richtung der maximalen horizontalen Spannung, welche hauptsächlich in N135°E orientiert ist, bestimmt.
Aufbauend auf den neu gewonnen Erkenntnissen zur natürlichen Seismizität und zum Spannungsfeld des nördlichen ORG wurde eine probabilistische seismische Gefährdungsanalyse durchgeführt. Um Unsicherheiten in den seismischen Quellregion-modellen zu berücksichtigen, wurden sechs unterschiedliche Modelle entwickelt. Für jede Quellregion wurden spezifische Parameter bestimmt. Ihre Unsicherheiten werden in einem logischen Baum behandelt. Auf der Grundlage eines neu zusammengestellten Momentmagnituden-basierten Erdbebenkatalogs wurden die Magnitudenhäufigkeits-parameter bestimmt. Unter Berücksichtigung des tektonischen Regimes in jeder Quelle wurden unterschiedliche Dämpfungsrelationen der Bodenbeschleunigung verwendet. Zur Quantifizierung der maximal zu erwartenden Magnitude in jeder Quelle wurden Wahrscheinlichkeitsdichtefunktionen berechnet. Die Resultate der Gefährdungsanalyse werden in Form von Karten der Spektralbodenbeschleunigungen und Spitzenboden-beschleunigungen für Wiederkehrperioden von 475 und 2475 Jahren und Antwortbeschleunigungsspektren dargestellt. Im Vergleich zu früheren Studien konnte eine erhöhte seismische Gefährdung für den nördlichen ORG festgestellt werden.
This study describes the Holocene sedimentary lagoonal deposition history, including event sedimentation and benthic foraminiferal analyzes, from about 10 kyrs BP until today. This is the first study describing the sedimentation of a Maldivian atoll lagoon in such detail. Thirty-nine sediment cores have been recovered from the deep Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon of the Maldives (4°N/73°W). Seventeen sediment cores were opened, described, and 296 sediment samples have been collected and analyzed. Different methods have been used to evaluate the coarse- and fine-grained carbonate components and a total of fifty-eight samples have been dated radiometrically by Beta Analytic Inc., Miami, Florida. In general, the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon sediments can be divided into (1) a Late Pleistocene soil, (2) an early Holocene peat layer composed of mangrove deposits which mark the beginning inundation of the atoll lagoon by the rising Holocene sea-level at 10,320 ± 100 yrs BP, and (3) carbonate sediments starting to fill up the lagoon 7850 ± 140 yrs BP until today. The transition from peat to carbonate is characterized by a considerable hiatus. Six different carbonate sediment facies are classified by statistical analyses, listed in decreasing abundance:
(1) mollusk-coral-algal floatstone to rudstone (30%)
(2) mollusk-coral-red algae rudstone (23%)
(3) mollusk-coral-algal wackestone to floatstone (23%)
(4) mollusk-coral wackestone (13%)
(5) mollusk-coral mudstone to wackestone (9%)
(6) mollusk mudstone (2%)
Based on grain-sizes in combination with coral identification, the facies represent both lagoonal background sedimentation (mostly fine-grained sediments (matrix >50%)) and event sedimentation (coarse-grained sediment layers composing reefal components).
Six coarser grained layers in muddy background sediments of the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon were interpreted as Holocene tsunami events, based on the increase of allochthonous skeletal material with shallow-water reef affinity such as fragments of shallow-water coral species, coralline red algae, and reef-dwelling foraminifera in these layers, as well as AMS dating:
• Event 1: 420 - 890 yrs BP (655 yrs BP)
• Event 2: 890 - 1560 yrs BP (1225 yrs BP)
• Event 3: 2040 - 2340 yrs BP (2190 yrs BP)
• Event 4: 2420 - 3380 yrs BP (2900 yrs BP)
• Event 5: 3890 - 4330 yrs BP (4110 yrs BP)
• Event 6: 5480 - 5760 yrs BP (5620 yrs BP)
Five of the six layers may be correlated to previously published tsunami events at adjacent coastal research sites. The mid-late Holocene atoll lagoon archive is incomplete though based on the assumption that major earthquakes at the Indonesian subduction zone generated more than six major tsunamis during the past 6.5 kyrs.
According to Gischler (2006), the sediments of the Rasdhoo Atoll lagoon can be divided into two areas: (1) a central to marginal deep lagoon with a lateral west-to-east gradient of sediment facies distribution, visible in sections <4 kyrs BP with sedimentary facies of mudstone to wackestone in the western part (e.g., cores 16, 18, and 34) and coarse-grained coral and algal-rich sediments in the eastern part of the lagoon (e.g., cores 30 and 31). (2) A northern enclosed and shallow area between the sand apron and the sand spit accumulating “sandy” sediments of wackestone facies (cores 2, 19, 25, and 26).
Comparing the sediment accumulation data of the lagoon with two reconstructed local sea-level curves, three different sequence-stratigraphical systems tracts are visible: (1) a lowstand systems tract (LST) >10 kyrs BP. Pleistocene brownish soil superposing subaerially exposed Pleistocene reef limestone. (2) A transgressive systems tract (TST) 10-6.5 kyrs BP. A peat layer marks the beginning of the inundation, and the carbonate sedimentation starts with very low sedimentation rates of 0.02 m/kyr. (3) A highstand systems tract (HST) 6.5-0 kyrs BP, further divided into three stages (6.5-3, 3-1, 1-0 kyrs BP). The sea-level rise slowed down, sedimentation rates are increasing continuously up to a maximum of 1.4 m/kyr, the sand spit developed some 4 kyrs BP, the lagoonal circulation got restricted, and the lateral west-to-east gradient of grain-size accumulation started. From 1-0 kyrs BP the sedimentation rates slowed down to modern mean sedimentation rates of 0.6 m/kyr.
Two cores, one core from the center of the lagoon (core 16) and one core from the northern margin of the lagoon (core 19), have been analyzed on diversity and assemblages of benthic foraminifera in high-resolution. The transitions of Ammonia spp. to a more even and diverse fauna marks a significant environmental change at 7.0 kyrs BP in core 16 (onset of a stable environment in the deep lagoon after the sea-level rise slowed down at HST stage 1) and at 4.0 kyrs BP in core 19. A continuing environmental change after 1.4 kyrs BP in core 16 caused the fauna to become more even, a recovery of diversity and a permanent decline of foraminiferal accumulation rate. The changes in the faunas at 4.0 kyrs BP and at 1.4 kyrs BP could be explained with the sand spit formation in the northwestern and western lagoon. The sand spit has apparently acted as an obstacle in lagoonal circulation and might have caused unstable environmental conditions due to a more rapid circulation at the shallow marine site of core 19 and a slowdown of bottom water circulation in the main lagoon (core 16) leading to higher residence times and to lower oxygen and higher nutrient concentrations.
Derivation and characterization of a new filter for nonlinear high-dimensional data assimilation
(2015)
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts with real-world observations to achieve an optimal estimate of the state of a dynamical system. The quality of predictions in nonlinear and chaotic systems such as atmospheric or oceanic circulation is strongly sensitive to the initial conditions. Therefore, beyond the consistent reconstruction of past states, a primary relevance of advanced DA methods concerns the proper model initialization. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and its deterministic variants, mostly square root filters such as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), represent a popular alternative to variational DA schemes. They are applied in a wide range of research and operations. Their forecast step employs an ensemble integration that fully respects the nonlinear nature of the analyzed system. In the analysis step, they implicitly assume the prior state and observation errors to be Gaussian. Consequently, in nonlinear systems, the mean and covariance of the analysis ensemble are biased and these filters remain suboptimal. In contrast, the fully nonlinear, non-Gaussian particle filter (PF) relies on Bayes' theorem without further assumptions, which guarantees an exact asymptotic behavior. However, it is exposed to weight collapse, particularly in higher-dimensional settings, known as the curse of dimensionality.
This work presents a new method to obtain an analysis ensemble with mean and covariance that exactly match the corresponding Bayesian estimates. This is achieved by a deterministic matrix square root transformation of the forecast ensemble, and subsequently a suitable random rotation that significantly contributes to filter stability while preserving the required second-order statistics. The forecast step remains as in the ETKF. The algorithm, which is fairly easy to implement and computationally efficient, is referred to as the nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF). The limitation with respect to fully-nonlinear filtering is that the NETF only considers the mean and covariance of the Bayesian analysis density, neglecting higher-order moments.
The properties and performance of the proposed algorithm are investigated via a set of experiments. The results indicate that such a filter formulation can increase the analysis quality, even for relatively small ensemble sizes, compared to other ensemble filters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios. They also confirm that localization enhances the applicability of this PF-inspired scheme in larger-dimensional systems. Finally, the novel filter is coupled to a large-scale ocean general circulation model with a realistic observation scenario. The NETF remains stable with a small ensemble size and shows a consistent behavior. Additionally, its analyses exhibit low estimation errors, as revealed by a comparison with a free ensemble integration and the ETKF. The results confirm that, in principle, the filter can be applied successfully and as simple as the ETKF in high-dimensional problems. No further modifications are needed, even though the algorithm is only based on the particle weights. Thus, it is able to overcome the curse of dimensionality, even in deterministic systems. This proves that the NETF constitutes a promising and user-friendly method for nonlinear high-dimensional DA.
In the past sixty years, excessive water consumption and dam construction have significantly influenced natural flow regimes and surface freshwater ecosystems throughout China, and thus resulted in serious environmental problems. In order to balance the competing water demands between human and environment and provide knowledge on sustainable water management, assessments on anthropogenic flow alterations and their impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems in China are needed.
In this study, the first evaluation on quantitative relationships between anthropogenic flow alterations and ecological responses in eleven river basins and watersheds in China was performed based on the data that could be obtained from published case studies. Quantitative relationships between changes in average annual discharge, seasonal low flow and seasonal high flow and changes in ecological indicators (fish diversity, fish catch and vegetation cover, etc.) were analyzed. The results showed that changes in riparian vegetation cover as well as changes in fish diversity and fish catch were strongly correlated with the changes in flow magnitude (r = 0.77, 0.66), especially with changes in average annual river discharge. In addition, more than half of the variations in vegetation cover could be explained by changes in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.63) and roughly 50 % changes in fish catch in arid and semi-arid region and 60% changes of fish catch in humid region could be related to alterations in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.53, 0.58).
In a supplementary analysis of this study, the first estimation on quantitative relationships between decreases in native fish species richness and anthropogenic flow alterations in 34 river basins and sub-basins in China was conducted. Linear relationships between losses of native fish species and five ecologically relevant flow indicators were analyzed by single and multiple regression models. For the single regression analysis, significant linear relationships were detected for the indicators of long-term average annual discharge (ILTA) and statistical low flow Q90 (IQ90). For the multiple regressions, no indicator other than ILTA has significant relationships with changes in number of fish species mainly due to collinearity. Two conclusions emerged from the analysis: 1) losses of fish species were positively correlated with changes in ILTA in China and 2) indicator of ILTA was dominant over other flow indicators included in this research for the given dataset. These results provide a guideline for the sustainable water resources management in rivers with high risk of fish extinction in China.
Diese Diplomarbeit untersucht die Güte eines globalen Datensatzes (IA), der die monatliche Ausdehnung der terrestrischen Oberflächengewässer für den Zeitraum von 1993 bis 2004 beinhaltet. IA ist aus komplementären, räumlich geringauflösenden Satellitendaten generiert. Die Wasserausdehnungen werden als prozentuale Flächenanteile von 0,5°-Gitterzellen angegeben. IA wäre durch seine monatliche Dynamik zur Kalibrierung und Validierung eines globalen Modells von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet. Im Rahmen dieser Diplomarbeit werden die Wasserbedeckungen aus IA in einzelnen 0,5°-Zellen zu mehreren Zeitpunkten mithilfe von räumlich hochauflösenden Satellitenbildern des Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) validiert. Aus Gründen der Effizienz (Minimierung des Speicheraufwands und der Verarbeitungszeit) wird nur ein einziger ETM+ Kanal im mittleren Infrarot zur Bestimmung der Wasserbedeckung verwendet: Band 5. Durch überwachte Klassifikationen wird der Anteil der Wasserflächen an der Gesamtfläche der 0,5°-Zellen ermittelt. Insgesamt werden 262 Klassifikationen in vier Untersuchungsgebieten durchgeführt. Zwischen den prozentualen Wasserbedeckungen aus IA und den ETM+ (Band 5)-Validierungsdaten werden häufige und unregelmäßige Abweichungen festgestellt. Die maximalen absoluten Abweichungen betragen mehr als 60%. Aufgrund dieser Ergebnisse sind die IA-Wasserausdehnungen nur sehr begrenzt als Validierungsdaten für die Modellierung von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet.
In situ rainwater harvesting has a long history in arid and semi-arid regions of the world buffering water shortages for human consumption and agriculture. In the context of an Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Cuvelai Basin in northern Namibia, roof top rainwater harvesting is being introduced to a rural community for the irrigation of household scale gardens for the cultivation of horticulture products. This study elaborates how harvested rainwater can be used for garden irrigation in a sustainable manner evaluating ecologic, economic and social implications. Considering local conditions eight cropping scenarios were designed, including different criteria as well as one and two annual planting seasons. These schemes were tested under present climate conditions and under three future climate change scenarios for 2050 with the help of a tank model designed to model monthly tank inflows and outflows. Special attention was laid on risk and uncertainty aspects of varying inter-annual and interseasonal precipitation and future climate change. A framework for the assessment of sustainability was adapted to the purposes of this study and indicators have been developed in order to assess the cropping and irrigation schemes for sustainability.
The study found that with the given tank size of 30 m³, depending on crop scenario, under optimized conditions a garden area of 60 to 90 m³ can be irrigated. The choice of crops highly impacts water use efficiency and economic profitability, compared to the considerably lower impact of amount of annual planting seasons and future climate change. In the case of worsening future climate conditions, adaptation measures need to be taken as especially the economic as well as the environmental situation are expected to exacerbate due to expected decreases in yields and revenues. Already under present conditions however, the economic dimension represents the most limiting factor to sustainability, particularly due to the excessive investment costs of the rainwater harvesting and gardening facility. Nonetheless, rainwater harvesting in combination with gardening can be regarded as successful in securing household nutrition, providing sufficient horticulture products for household consumption or market sale. At the same time with the optimal choice of crops the investment costs can be recovered within the end of the lifespan of the facility.
140 Liter Wasser werden für die Herstellung einer Tasse Kaffee benötigt, 1.300 Liter Wasser für ein Kilo Gerste und 3.400 Liter Wasser für ein Kilo Reis. Diese Zahlen mögen im ersten Moment unglaubwürdig erscheinen, doch sie entsprechen der Wirklichkeit. Für die Herstellung von nahezu allen Produkten wird Wasser in teils sogar sehr großen Mengen benötigt. In dem Endprodukt jedoch findet sich meist nur ein kleiner Teil des ursprünglich eingesetzten Wassers in seiner physischen Form wieder. Der überwiegende Anteil wurde während des Produktionsprozesses verdunstet oder zur Kühlung eingesetzt und wird daher als „virtuelles Wasser“ bezeichnet. Aufgrund des Exports und Imports von Produkten im Zuge des internationalen Handels kommt es somit auch zu Strömen von virtuellem Wasser zwischen den einzelnen Ländern. In dieser Bachelorarbeit wird der virtuelle Wasserhandel mit 23 verschiedenen Feldfrüchten mit dem Fokus auf Deutschland für den Zeitraum von 1998 bis 2002 untersucht. In die Berechnung dieser virtuellen Wasserströme ist ein neuartiges Modell eingegangen, das Global Crop Water Model (GCWM), welches den virtuellen Wassergehalt für unterschiedliche Feldfruchtgruppen global für jede 5-Minuten-Zelle auf Basis detaillierter Daten berechnet. Dank dieses Modells ist es möglich, eine Trennung zwischen dem virtuellen Wasser, welches aus der Nutzung des Niederschlagswassers und dem virtuellen Wasser, welches aus der Bewässerung von Ackerflächen resultiert, vorzunehmen und diese getrennt von einander zu analysieren. Mittels der Verwendung der Handelsstatistik Comtrade der Vereinten Nationen lässt sich aus den Ergebnissen des GCWM der virtuelle Wasserhandel darstellen. Es zeigt sich, dass Deutschland das meiste Wasser in seiner virtuellen Form nach Algerien, Saudi-Arabien, Belgien und in die Niederlande exportiert, wohingegen aus Brasilien, den USA, Frankreich und der Elfenbeinküste die größten virtuellen Wassermengen importiert werden.
Long-term average groundwater recharge representing the sustainable groundwater resources is modeled as a 0.5° by 0.5° grid on global scale by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. Due to uncertainties of estimating groundwater recharge, especially in semiarid and arid regions, independent estimates are used for calibrating the model. This work compiled a new set of independent groundwater recharge estimates based on a work of Scanlon et al. (2006). The 59 independent estimates, together with an already existing independent estimates compilation, are used for the evaluation of two WGHM variants; one variant is modeling with an improved more realistically distributed daily precipitation dataset.
The objective of this thesis is the evaluation of the modeled data of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). The analysis of the impact of the new Watch Forcing Data (WFD) precipitation dataset on the modeled groundwater recharge tends to result in lower values in humid and higher values in (semi-)arid regions compared to the WGHM standard variant. Comparing both WGHM variants to the independent estimates compilations, representing (semi-)arid regions, the WGHM variant shows over- and underestimations especially of the low values and the WGHM WFD variant shows a bias toward overestimation especially for values below 4 mm/yr. The analysis of texture, hydrogeology and vegetation/ land cover could not give satisfying explanations for the discrepancies, but derived from the groundwater recharge measurement methods analysis indirect/ localized recharge seems to be a significant factor causing underestimations, as resulted in the comparison of the independent estimates based on Scanlon et al. 2006 with the WGHM variants.
Die vorliegende Diplomarbeit beschäftigt sich mit dem Vergleich des ASTER GDEM und SRTM, zweier kostenlos verfügbarer, digitaler Geländehöhenmodelle mit nahezu globaler Abdeckung. Die Untersuchungsgebiete befinden sich im Kleinwalsertal (Österreich) und in Südhessen (Deutschland). Der Vergleich der Geländehöhendaten erfolgt durch die Ermittlung der Höhenabweichung zu Referenzhöhen, die aus hochauflösenden amtlichen Geländemodellen ermittelt wurden. Die Höhenabweichung wurde zudem für bestimmte geomorphologische Oberflächenformen und Landbedeckungen ermittelt. Des Weiteren werden die Geländehöhendaten auf ihre Eignung für geomorphometrische und hydrologische Analysen bewertet.
Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts „Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen in Fließgewässern“ (INTAFERE) am Institut für Physische Geographie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt erstellt. In INTAFERE wurde das Gefährdungspotenzial von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen (MOF) für aquatische Ökosysteme und die natürlichen Wasserressourcen in integrierter und partizipativer Art und Weise untersucht. MOF sind chemische Substanzen, die in Alltagsprodukten enthalten sind und durch unterschiedliche Eintragsfade in unbekannten Mengen in Oberflächengewässer eingetragen werden. Problematisch sind aus Umweltgesichtspunkten ihre Eigenschaften: sie besitzen im Wasser eine hohe Mobilität und sind schwer abbaubar. Dies führt zu einer Persistenz über lange Zeiträume. Für einige dieser Substanzen wurde zudem gezeigt, dass sie in sehr geringen Konzentrationen biologisch aktiv sind und für aquatische Ökosysteme eine Gefahr darstellen. In INTAFERE wurden drei zentrale Ziele verfolgt: Charakterisierung des Problemfeldes MOF, Erzeugung von praxisrelevantem Wissen für das Management von MOF und Entwicklung einer Softwareanwendung, die gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse durch eine transparente Darstellung der Wirkungszusammenhänge im Problemfeld unterstützt. Um einen Beitrag für die Erfüllung der Ziele zu leisten, war es die Aufgabe der Verfasserin, eine Akteursanalyse und -modellierung durchzuführen sowie Zukunftsszenarien im Bereich der MOF zu entwickeln. Dafür existierte keine adäquate Methodik, daher verfolgt die Dissertation zum einen die Entwicklung einer Methodik und zum anderen deren Anwendung im Kontext des Projektes INTAFERE. Da im Forschungsprozess die Durchführung von Analysen, die wissenschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Sichtweise der Problematik sowie die Erarbeitung von praktischen Lösungen im Mittelpunkt standen, wurde eine transdisziplinäre Herangehensweise gewählt. Ziel war es, eine Methodik zu entwerfen, die sowohl eine Entwicklung von Szenarien als auch eine Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen umfasst. Eine Modellierung und Visualisierung von Handlungsentscheidungen ist notwendig, um Strategien für ein Umweltproblem für verschiedene Szenarien zu ermitteln, und damit einen Lernprozess der Stakeholder zu initiieren. Dies wurde mit der transdisziplinären Methode „Akteursbasierte Modellierung“ umgesetzt. Hierbei wurden insbesondere Aspekte der Problemwahrnehmung von Akteuren und deren Darstellung, der partizipativen Szenarienentwicklung sowie der semi-quantitativen Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen berücksichtigt. Die Verfasserin hat mit der semi-quantitativen akteursbasierten Modellierung eine Methode erarbeitet und getestet, die bisher unverbundene Komponenten (wie die Software Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) und die Szenarienentwicklung) zusammenführt. Um Handlungsentscheidungen unter verschiedenen Szenarien zu modellieren hat die Autorin eine sequentielle Modellierung entwickelt, die mit der Software DANA durchgeführt werden kann. Die dafür notwendige Weiterentwicklung von DANA wurde von Dr. Pieter Bots (TU Delft) umgesetzt. Die akteursbasierte Modellierung läuft in drei methodischen Schritten ab: 1. Modellierung von Akteurs-Sichtweisen in Form von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse, aufbauend auf Ergebnissen von qualitativen, leitfaden-gestützten Expertengesprächen (= Akteursmodellierung), 2. partizipative Szenarienentwicklung mit den Akteuren und 3. Zusammenführung der Ergebnisse der Akteursmodellierung und der Szenarienentwicklung und darauf aufbauend eine sequentielle Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen und deren Auswirkungen auf Schlüsselfaktoren. Im Zuge der Anwendung auf das Problemfeld der MOF wurde für folgende Akteure jeweils ein Wahrnehmungsgraph modelliert: Obere Wasserbehörde, Umweltbundesamt, Umwelt- und Verbraucherschutzorganisationen, Wasserversorger sowie für die Hersteller von verschiedenen MOF, weiterhin für die European Flame Retardants Association und die Weiterverarbeitende Industrie. Das Ergebnis der Szenarienentwicklung waren vier Szenarien: ein Gesundheitsszenario, unter der Annahme von hohen lokalen Umweltstandards durch nachhaltigkeitsorientierte KonsumentInnen, ein Umweltszenario, in dem eine starke Regulierung und nachhaltigkeitsorientierter Konsum Hand in Hand gehen, ein Globalisierungsszenario, in dem Wirtschaftsmacht und preisbewusste KonsumentInnen statt staatliche Regulierung vorherrschen und ein Technikszenario, unter der Annahme, dass Kläranlagen, bedingt durch eine starke Regulierung, aufgerüstet werden. Bei der Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen wurden die Wahrnehmungsgraphen und die vier Szenarien miteinander verknüpft. Pro Substanz wurde ein Modell entwickelt, welches die wichtigsten Systemkomponenten in einer angemessenen Komplexität umfasst und die von den Akteuren gemeinsam getragene Einschätzung der Wirkungsbeziehungen darstellt. Insgesamt wurden 16 Modelle entwickelt. Basierend auf den simulierten Akteurshandlungen wurden relativen Veränderungen der Schlüsselfaktoren Produktion, Import und Leistungsfähigkeit der Kläranlagen für die vier genannten Szenarien berechnet. In Zusammenarbeit mit Pieter Bots konnten algorithmische Beiträge zur Analyse- und Modellierungssoftware DANA getestet und verbessert werden. Da keine vollständige und zugleich leicht verständliche Einführung zu DANA vorlag, wurde für Nutzer im Rahmen dieser Dissertation eine Anleitung verfasst, die die Modellierung von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse sowie alle Schritte der akteursbasierten Modellierung mit DANA erläutert.
The design of rainwater harvesting based gardens requires considering current climate but also climate change during the lifespan of the facility. The goal of this study is to present an approach for designing garden variants that can be safely supplied with harvested rainwater, taking into account climate change and adaptation measures. In addition, the study presents a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on rainwater harvesting based gardening. Results of the study may not be accurate due to the assumptions made for climate projections and may need to be further refined. We used a tank flow model and an irrigation water model. Then we established three simple climate scenarios and analyzed the impact of climate change on harvested rain and horticulture production for a semi-arid region in northern Namibia. In the two climate scenarios with decreased precipitation and medium/high temperature increase; adaptation measures are required to avoid substantial decreases in horticulture production. The study found that the most promising adaptation measures to sustain yields and revenues are a more water efficient garden variant and an enlargement of the roof size. The proposed measures can partly or completely compensate the negative impacts of climate change.
Nach dem Reaktorunfall in Fukushima im März 2011 und dem darauf folgendem Beschluss in Deutschland, den Atomausstieg zu vollziehen, wird dort – sowohl auf nationaler, als auch auf regionaler Ebene – über eine alternative Energieversorgung diskutiert. Für die vorliegende Arbeit stellten sich die Fragen, wie die energiepolitische Ausgangssituation in Hessen aussieht und welche Potenziale erneuerbarer Energien in Hessen vorhanden sind. Mit einer Politikfeldanalyse wurde untersucht, welche Akteure am Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien beteiligt sind, wie diese interagieren, welche Instrumente zur Förderung erneuerbarer Energien in Hessen existieren und welche Erfolgsbedingungen und Restriktionen sich daraus ergeben. Ferner wurde anhand der jeweiligen Energiekonzepte die Frage verfolgt, welche Zukunftspotenziale für erneuerbare Energien die relevanten Akteure sehen und welche energiepolitischen Maßnahmen getroffen werden müssen, um den Ausbau zu forcieren. Bei einem Vergleich des Bundeslandes Hessen mit den Ländern Niedersachsen, Nordrhein-Westfalen und Sachsen-Anhalt wurde festgestellt, welche energiepolitischen Maßnahmen in diesen Bundesländern erfolgreich waren und auf Hessen übertragbar sind. Einerseits wurde aufgezeigt, dass Bemühungen den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien zu forcieren erkennbar sind. Anderseits konnten ebenso die restriktiven Rahmenbedingungen dargestellt werden, die einen durchschlagenden Erfolg des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien bisher behindern. Die Untersuchung der Energiekonzepte hat ergeben, dass die Akteure die Zukunftspotenziale erneuerbarer Energien sehr unterschiedlich sehen und gewichten – sowohl was das zeitliche Ausbauziel als auch die Potenziale der jeweiligen erneuerbaren Energieträger betrifft.
Bayesian Networks are computer-based environmental models that are frequently used to support decision-making under uncertainty. Under data scarce conditions, Bayesian Networks can be developed, parameterized, and run based on expert knowledge only. However, the efficiency of expert-based Bayesian Network modeling is limited by the difficulty in deriving model inputs in the time available during expert workshops. This thesis therefore aimed at developing a simple and robust method for deriving conditional probability tables from expert estimates in a time-efficient way. The design and application of this new elicitation and conversion method is demonstrated using a case study in Xinjiang, Northwest China. The key characteristics of this method are its time-efficiency and the approach to use different conversion tables based on varying levels of confidence. Although the method has its limitations, e.g. it can only be applied for variables with one conditioning variable; it provides the opportunity to support the parameterization of Bayesian Networks which would otherwise remain half-finished due to time constraints. In addition, a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, is used to compare Bayesian Network types and software to improve the presentation clarity of large Bayesian Networks. Both case studies aimed at gaining insights on how to improve the applicability of Bayesian Networks to support environmental management.
Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global Historical Irrigation Dataset (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arc-minute resolution. We collected subnational irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 112 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining subnational irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to subnational irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land in the western United States as shown on historical maps. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and river discharge decreased from 1900–1950 whereas aridity decreased from 1950–2005. The dataset and its documentation are made available in an open data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi:10.13019/M2MW2G).
The three-dimensional quantification of small-scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents the first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe (ESa Sounder Campaign) and TACTS/ESMVal (TACTS: Transport and composition in the upper troposphere/lowermost stratosphere, ESMVal: Earth System Model Validation) aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics-mode data characterized by a medium-spectral and a very-high-spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3, and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high-resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal, a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere was performed. It was possible to reconstruct this filament at an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 × 20 km horizontally.
Ternary aerosol nucleation experiments were conducted in the CLOUD chamber at CERN in order to investigate the influence of ions on new particle formation. Neutral and ion-induced nucleation experiments, i.e., with and without the presence of ions, were carried out under precisely controlled conditions. The sulphuric acid concentration was measured with a Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS) during the new particle formation experiments. The added ternary trace gases were ammonia (NH3), dimethylamine (DMA, C2H7N) or oxidised products of pinanediol (PD, C10H18O2). When pinanediol was introduced into the chamber, an increase in the mass spectrometric signal used to determine the sulphuric acid concentration (m/z 97, i.e., HSO4−) was observed due to ions from the CLOUD chamber. The enhancement was only observed during ion-induced nucleation measurements by using either galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or the proton synchrotron (PS) pion beam for the ion generation, respectively. The ion effect typically involved an increase in the apparent sulphuric acid concentration by a factor of ~2 to 3 and was qualitatively verified by the ion measurements by an Atmospheric Pressure interface-Time Of Flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. By applying a high voltage (HV) clearing field inside the CLOUD chamber the ion effect on the CIMS measurement was completely eliminated since, under these conditions, small ions are swept from the chamber in about one second. In order to exclude the ion effect and to provide corrected sulphuric acid concentrations during the GCR and PS beam nucleation experiments, a parameterisation was derived that utilizes the trace gas concentrations and the UV light intensity as input parameters. Atmospheric sulphuric acid measurements with a CIMS showed an insignificant ion effect.
Ternary aerosol nucleation experiments were conducted in the CLOUD chamber at CERN in order to investigate the influence of ions on new particle formation. Neutral and ion-induced nucleation experiments, i.e. without and with the presence of ions, respectively, were carried out under precisely controlled conditions. The sulfuric acid concentration was measured with a chemical ionisation mass spectrometer (CIMS) during the new particle formation experiments. The added ternary trace gases were ammonia (NH3), dimethylamine (DMA, C2H7N) or oxidised products of pinanediol (PD, C10H18O2). When pinanediol was introduced into the chamber, an increase in the mass spectrometric signal used to determine the sulfuric acid concentration (m/z 97, i.e. HSO4−) was observed due to ions from the CLOUD chamber. The enhancement was only observed during ion-induced nucleation measurements by using either galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) or the proton synchrotron (PS) pion beam for the ion generation, respectively. The ion effect typically involved an increase in the apparent sulfuric acid concentration by a factor of ~ 2 to 3 and was qualitatively verified by the ion measurements with an atmospheric-pressure interface-time of flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. By applying a high-voltage (HV) clearing field inside the CLOUD chamber, the ion effect on the CIMS measurement was completely eliminated since, under these conditions, small ions are swept from the chamber in about 1 s. In order to exclude the ion effect and to provide corrected sulfuric acid concentrations during the GCR and PS beam nucleation experiments, a parameterisation was derived that utilises the trace gas concentrations and the UV light intensity as input parameters. Atmospheric sulfuric acid measurements with a CIMS showed an insignificant ion effect.
The formation of particles from precursor vapors is an important source of atmospheric aerosol. Research at the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) facility at CERN tries to elucidate which vapors are responsible for this new particle formation, and how in detail it proceeds. Initial measurement campaigns at the CLOUD stainless-steel aerosol chamber focused on investigating particle formation from ammonia (NH3) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4). Experiments were conducted in the presence of water, ozone and sulfur dioxide. Contaminant trace gases were suppressed at the technological limit. For this study, we mapped out the compositions of small NH3-H2SO4 clusters over a wide range of atmospherically relevant environmental conditions. We covered [NH3] in the range from <2 to 1400 pptv, [H2SO4] from 3.3 × 106 to 1.4 × 109 cm−3, and a temperature range from −25 to +20 °C. Negatively and positively charged clusters were directly measured by an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer, as they initially formed from gas-phase NH3 and H2SO4, and then grew to larger clusters containing more than 50 molecules of NH3 and H2SO4, corresponding to mobility-equivalent diameters greater than 2 nm. Water molecules evaporate from these clusters during sampling and are not observed. We found that the composition of the NH3-H2SO4 clusters is primarily determined by the ratio of gas-phase concentrations [NH3] / [H2SO4], as well as by temperature. Pure binary H2O-H2SO4 clusters (observed as clusters of only H2SO4) only form at [NH3] / [H2SO4]<0.1 to 1. For larger values of [NH3] / [H2SO4], the composition of NH3-H2SO4 clusters was characterized by the number of NH3 molecules m added for each added H2SO4 molecule n (Δm / Δn), where n is in the range 4–18 (negatively charged clusters) or 1–17 (positively charged clusters). For negatively charged clusters, Δm / Δn saturated between 1 and 1.4 for [NH3] / [H2SO4]>10. Positively charged clusters grew on average by Δm / Δn = 1.05 and were only observed at sufficiently high [NH3] / [H2SO4]. The H2SO4 molecules of these clusters are partially neutralized by NH3, in close resemblance to the acid-base bindings of ammonium bisulfate. Supported by model simulations, we substantiate previous evidence for acid-base reactions being the essential mechanism behind the formation of these clusters under atmospheric conditions and up to sizes of at least 2 nm. Our results also suggest that yet unobservable electrically neutral NH3-H2SO4 clusters grow by generally the same mechanism as ionic clusters, particularly for [NH3] / [H2SO4]>10. We expect that NH3-H2SO4 clusters form and grow also mostly by Δm / Δn>1 in the atmosphere's boundary layer, as [NH3] / [H2SO4] is mostly larger than 10. We compared our results from CLOUD with APi-TOF measurements of NH3-H2SO4 anion clusters during new particle formation in the Finnish boreal forest. However, the exact role of NH3-H2SO4 clusters in boundary layer particle formation remains to be resolved.
The formation of particles from precursor vapors is an important source of atmospheric aerosol. Research at the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) facility at CERN tries to elucidate which vapors are responsible for this new-particle formation, and how in detail it proceeds. Initial measurement campaigns at the CLOUD stainless-steel aerosol chamber focused on investigating particle formation from ammonia (NH3) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4). Experiments were conducted in the presence of water, ozone and sulfur dioxide. Contaminant trace gases were suppressed at the technological limit. For this study, we mapped out the compositions of small NH3–H2SO4 clusters over a wide range of atmospherically relevant environmental conditions. We covered [NH3] in the range from < 2 to 1400 pptv, [H2SO4] from 3.3 × 106 to 1.4 × 109 cm−3 (0.1 to 56 pptv), and a temperature range from −25 to +20 °C. Negatively and positively charged clusters were directly measured by an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer, as they initially formed from gas-phase NH3 and H2SO4, and then grew to larger clusters containing more than 50 molecules of NH3 and H2SO4, corresponding to mobility-equivalent diameters greater than 2 nm. Water molecules evaporate from these clusters during sampling and are not observed. We found that the composition of the NH3–H2SO4 clusters is primarily determined by the ratio of gas-phase concentrations [NH3] / [H2SO4], as well as by temperature. Pure binary H2O–H2SO4 clusters (observed as clusters of only H2SO4) only form at [NH3] / [H2SO4] < 0.1 to 1. For larger values of [NH3] / [H2SO4], the composition of NH3–H2SO4 clusters was characterized by the number of NH3 molecules m added for each added H2SO4 molecule n (Δm/Δ n), where n is in the range 4–18 (negatively charged clusters) or 1–17 (positively charged clusters). For negatively charged clusters, Δ m/Δn saturated between 1 and 1.4 for [NH3] / [H2SO4] > 10. Positively charged clusters grew on average by Δm/Δn = 1.05 and were only observed at sufficiently high [NH3] / [H2SO4]. The H2SO4 molecules of these clusters are partially neutralized by NH3, in close resemblance to the acid–base bindings of ammonium bisulfate. Supported by model simulations, we substantiate previous evidence for acid–base reactions being the essential mechanism behind the formation of these clusters under atmospheric conditions and up to sizes of at least 2 nm. Our results also suggest that electrically neutral NH3–H2SO4 clusters, unobservable in this study, have generally the same composition as ionic clusters for [NH3] / [H2SO4] > 10. We expect that NH3–H2SO4 clusters form and grow also mostly by Δm/Δn > 1 in the atmosphere's boundary layer, as [NH3] / [H2SO4] is mostly larger than 10. We compared our results from CLOUD with APi-TOF measurements of NH3–H2SO4 anion clusters during new-particle formation in the Finnish boreal forest. However, the exact role of NH3–H2SO4 clusters in boundary layer particle formation remains to be resolved.
Seven different instruments and measurement methods were used to examine the immersion freezing of bacterial ice nuclei from Snomax® (hereafter Snomax), a product containing ice active protein complexes from non-viable Pseudomonas syringae bacteria. The experimental conditions were kept as similar as possible for the different measurements. Of the participating instruments, some examined droplets which had been made from suspensions directly, and the others examined droplets activated on previously generated Snomax particles, with particle diameters of mostly a few hundred nanometers and up to a few micrometers in some cases. Data were obtained in the temperature range from −2 to −38 °C, and it was found that all ice active protein complexes were already activated above −12 °C. Droplets with different Snomax mass concentrations covering 10 orders of magnitude were examined. Some instruments had very short ice nucleation times down to below 1 s, while others had comparably slow cooling rates around 1 K min−1. Displaying data from the different instruments in terms of numbers of ice active protein complexes per dry mass of Snomax, nm, showed that within their uncertainty the data agree well with each other as well as to previously reported literature results. Two parameterizations were taken from literature for a direct comparison to our results, and these were a time dependent approach based on a contact angle distribution Niedermeier et al. (2014) and a modification of the parameterization presented in Hartmann et~al.~(2013) representing a time independent approach. The agreement between these and the measured data were good, i.e. they agreed within a temperature range of 0.6 K or equivalently a range in nm of a factor of 2. From the results presented herein, we propose that Snomax, at least when carefully shared and prepared, is a suitable material to test and compare different instruments for their accuracy of measuring immersion freezing.
Seven different instruments and measurement methods were used to examine the immersion freezing of bacterial ice nuclei from Snomax® (hereafter Snomax), a product containing ice-active protein complexes from non-viable Pseudomonas syringae bacteria. The experimental conditions were kept as similar as possible for the different measurements. Of the participating instruments, some examined droplets which had been made from suspensions directly, and the others examined droplets activated on previously generated Snomax particles, with particle diameters of mostly a few hundred nanometers and up to a few micrometers in some cases. Data were obtained in the temperature range from −2 to −38 °C, and it was found that all ice-active protein complexes were already activated above −12 °C. Droplets with different Snomax mass concentrations covering 10 orders of magnitude were examined. Some instruments had very short ice nucleation times down to below 1 s, while others had comparably slow cooling rates around 1 K min−1. Displaying data from the different instruments in terms of numbers of ice-active protein complexes per dry mass of Snomax, nm, showed that within their uncertainty, the data agree well with each other as well as to previously reported literature results. Two parameterizations were taken from literature for a direct comparison to our results, and these were a time-dependent approach based on a contact angle distribution (Niedermeier et al., 2014) and a modification of the parameterization presented in Hartmann et al. (2013) representing a time-independent approach. The agreement between these and the measured data were good; i.e., they agreed within a temperature range of 0.6 K or equivalently a range in nm of a factor of 2. From the results presented herein, we propose that Snomax, at least when carefully shared and prepared, is a suitable material to test and compare different instruments for their accuracy of measuring immersion freezing.
Immersion freezing is the most relevant heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanism through which ice crystals are formed in mixed-phase clouds. In recent years, an increasing number of laboratory experiments utilizing a variety of instruments have examined immersion freezing activity of atmospherically relevant ice nucleating particles (INPs). However, an inter-comparison of these laboratory results is a difficult task because investigators have used different ice nucleation (IN) measurement methods to produce these results. A remaining challenge is to explore the sensitivity and accuracy of these techniques and to understand how the IN results are potentially influenced or biased by experimental parameters associated with these techniques.
Within the framework of INUIT (Ice Nucleation research UnIT), we distributed an illite rich sample (illite NX) as a representative surrogate for atmospheric mineral dust particles to investigators to perform immersion freezing experiments using different IN measurement methods and to obtain IN data as a function of particle concentration, temperature (T), cooling rate and nucleation time. Seventeen measurement methods were involved in the data inter-comparison. Experiments with seven instruments started with the test sample pre-suspended in water before cooling, while ten other instruments employed water vapor condensation onto dry-dispersed particles followed by immersion freezing. The resulting comprehensive immersion freezing dataset was evaluated using the ice nucleation active surface-site density (ns) to develop a representative ns(T) spectrum that spans a wide temperature range (−37 °C < T < −11 °C) and covers nine orders of magnitude in ns.
Our inter-comparison results revealed a discrepancy between suspension and dry-dispersed particle measurements for this mineral dust. While the agreement was good below ~ −26 °C, the ice nucleation activity, expressed in ns, was smaller for the wet suspended samples and higher for the dry-dispersed aerosol samples between about −26 and −18 °C. Only instruments making measurement techniques with wet suspended samples were able to measure ice nucleation above −18 °C. A possible explanation for the deviation between −26 and −18 °C is discussed. In general, the seventeen immersion freezing measurement techniques deviate, within the range of about 7 °C in terms of temperature, by three orders of magnitude with respect to ns. In addition, we show evidence that the immersion freezing efficiency (i.e., ns) of illite NX particles is relatively independent on droplet size, particle mass in suspension, particle size and cooling rate during freezing. A strong temperature-dependence and weak time- and size-dependence of immersion freezing efficiency of illite-rich clay mineral particles enabled the ns parameterization solely as a function of temperature. We also characterized the ns (T) spectra, and identified a section with a steep slope between −20 and −27 °C, where a large fraction of active sites of our test dust may trigger immersion freezing. This slope was followed by a region with a gentler slope at temperatures below −27 °C. A multiple exponential distribution fit is expressed as ns(T) = exp(23.82 × exp(−exp(0.16 × (T + 17.49))) + 1.39) based on the specific surface area and ns(T) = exp(25.75 × exp(−exp(0.13 × (T + 17.17))) + 3.34) based on the geometric area (ns and T in m−2 and °C, respectively). These new fits, constrained by using an identical reference samples, will help to compare IN measurement methods that are not included in the present study and, thereby, IN data from future IN instruments.
In this study we show how size-resolved measurements of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can be used to characterize the supersaturation of water vapor in a cloud. The method was developed and applied during the ACRIDICON-Zugspitze campaign (17 September to 4 October 2012) at the high-Alpine research station Schneefernerhaus (German Alps, 2650 m a.s.l.). Number size distributions of total and interstitial aerosol particles were measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra were recorded with a CCN counter system operated at different supersaturation levels.
During the evolution of a cloud, aerosol particles are exposed to different supersaturation levels. We outline and compare different estimates for the lower and upper bounds (Slow, Shigh) and the average value (Savg) of peak supersaturation encountered by the particles in the cloud. A major advantage of the derivation of Slow and Savg from size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra is that it does not require the specific knowledge or assumptions about aerosol hygroscopicity that are needed to derive estimates of Slow, Shigh, and Savg from aerosol size distribution data. For the investigated cloud event, we derived Slow ≈ 0.07–0.25%, Shigh ≈ 0.86–1.31% and Savg ≈ 0.42–0.68%.
The three-dimensional quantification of small scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe and TACTS/ESMVal aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics mode data characterized by a medium spectral and a very high spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3 and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in-situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere has been performed. This filament could be reconstructed with an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 km × 20 km horizontally.
In the present work, three different techniques are used to separate ice-nucleating particles (INP) and ice particle residuals (IPR) from non-ice-active particles: the Ice Selective Inlet (ISI) and the Ice Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI), which sample ice particles from mixed phase clouds and allow for the analysis of the residuals, as well as the combination of the Fast Ice Nucleus Chamber (FINCH) and the Ice Nuclei Pumped Virtual Impactor (IN-PCVI), which provides ice-activating conditions to aerosol particles and extracts the activated ones for analysis. The collected particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis to determine their size, chemical composition and mixing state. Samples were taken during January/February 2013 at the High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch. All INP/IPR-separating techniques had considerable abundances (median 20–70%) of contamination artifacts (ISI: Si-O spheres, probably calibration aerosol; Ice-CVI: Al-O particles; FINCH + IN-PCVI: steel particles). Also, potential measurement artifacts (soluble material) occurred (median abundance < 20%). After removal of the contamination particles, silicates and Ca-rich particles, carbonaceous material and metal oxides were the major INP/IPR particle types separated by all three techniques. Minor types include soot and Pb-bearing particles. Sea-salt and sulfates were identified by all three methods as INP/IPR. Lead was identified in less than 10% of the INP/IPR. It was mainly present as an internal mixture with other particle types, but also external lead-rich particles were found. Most samples showed a maximum of the INP/IPR size distribution at 400 nm geometric diameter. In a few cases, a second super-micron maximum was identified. Soot/carbonaceous material and metal oxides were present mainly in the submicron range. ISI and FINCH yielded silicates and Ca-rich particles mainly with diameters above 1 μm, while the Ice-CVI also sampled many submicron particles. Probably owing to the different meteorological conditions, the INP/IPR composition was highly variable on a sample to sample basis. Thus, some part of the discrepancies between the different techniques may result from the (unavoidable) non-parallel sampling. The observed differences of the particles group abundances as well as the mixing state of INP/IPR point to the need of further studies to better understand the influence of the separating techniques on the INP/IPR chemical composition.
In this study we show how size-resolved measurements of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can be used to characterize the supersaturation of water vapor in a cloud. The method was developed and applied for the investigation of a cloud event during the ACRIDICON-Zugspitze campaign (17 September to 4 October 2012) at the high-alpine research station Schneefernerhaus (German Alps, 2650 m a.s.l.). Number size distributions of total and interstitial aerosol particles were measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra were recorded with a CCN counter system operated at different supersaturation levels.
During the evolution of a cloud, aerosol particles are exposed to different supersaturation levels. We outline and compare different estimates for the lower and upper bounds (Slow, Shigh) and the average value (Savg) of peak supersaturation encountered by the particles in the cloud. For the investigated cloud event, we derived Slow ≈ 0.19–0.25%, Shigh ≈ 0.90–1.64% and Savg ≈ 0.38–0.84%. Estimates of Slow, Shigh and Savg based on aerosol size distribution data require specific knowledge or assumptions of aerosol hygroscopicity, which are not required for the derivation of Slow and Savg from the size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra.
Global warming, changes in the hydrological cycle and enhanced marine primary productivity all have been invoked as having contributed to the occurrence of widespread ocean anoxia during the Cenomanian–Turonian oceanic anoxic event (OAE2; ~94 Ma), but disentangling these factors on a regional scale has remained problematic. In an attempt to separate these forcing factors, we generated palynological and organic geochemical records using a core spanning the OAE2 from Wunstorf, Lower Saxony Basin (LSB; northern Germany), which exhibits cyclic black shale–marl alternations related to the orbital precession cycle.
Despite the widely varying depositional conditions complicating the interpretation of the obtained records, TEX86H indicates that sea-surface temperature (SST) evolution in the LSB during OAE2 resembles that of previously studied sites throughout the proto-North Atlantic. Cooling during the so-called Plenus Cold Event interrupted black shale deposition during the early stages of OAE2. However, TEX86 does not vary significantly across black shale–marl alternations, suggesting that temperature variations did not force the formation of the cyclic black shale horizons. Relative (i.e., with respect to marine palynomorphs) and absolute abundances of pollen and spores are elevated during phases of black shale deposition, indicative of enhanced precipitation and run-off. High abundances of cysts from inferred heterotrophic and euryhaline dinoflagellates supports high run-off, which likely introduced additional nutrients to the epicontinental shelf resulting in elevated marine primary productivity.
We conclude that orbitally forced enhanced precipitation and run-off, in tandem with elevated marine primary productivity, were critical in cyclic black shale formation on the northern European epicontinental shelf and potentially for other OAE2 sections in the proto-Atlantic and Western Interior Seaway at similar latitudes as well.
Global warming, changes in the hydrological cycle and enhanced marine primary productivity all have been invoked to have contributed to the occurrence of widespread ocean anoxia during the Cenomanian-Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE2; ~ 94 Ma), but disentangling these factors on a regional scale has remained problematic. We generated palynological and organic geochemical records that allow the separation of these forcing factors in a core spanning the OAE2 from Wunstorf, Lower Saxony Basin (LSB; North Gemany), which exhibits cyclic black shale–marl alternations related to the orbital precession cycle.
Despite the widely varying depositional conditions complicating the interpretation of the obtained records, TEX86H indicates that sea-surface temperature (SST) evolution in the LSB during OAE2 resembles that of previously studied sites throughout the proto-North Atlantic. Cooling during the so-called Plenus Cold Event interrupted black shale deposition during the early stages of OAE2. However, TEX86 does not vary significantly across marl–black shale alternations, suggesting that temperature variations did not force the formation of the cyclic black shale horizons. Relative (i.e., with respect to marine palynomorphs) and absolute abundances of pollen and spores are elevated during phases of black shale deposition, indicative of enhanced precipitation and run-off. High abundances of cysts from inferred heterotrophic and euryhaline dinoflagellates supports high run-off, which likely introduced additional nutrients to the epicontinental shelf resulting in elevated marine primary productivity.
We conclude that orbitally-forced enhanced precipitation and run-off, in tandem with elevated marine primary productivity, were critical in cyclic black shale formation on the northwest European epicontinental shelf and potentially for other OAE2 sections in the proto-Atlantic and Western Interior Seaway at similar latitudes as well.
The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. Within the SuMaRiO cluster, focus has been set on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as the dominant tree species, because these forests belong to the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems of the Tarim River basin. At sites close to the groundwater, the annual stem diameter increments of Populus euphratica correlated with the river runoffs of the previous year. However, the natural river dynamics cease along the downstream course and thus hamper the recruitment of Populus euphratica. A study on the willingness to pay for the conservation of the natural ecosystems was conducted to estimate the concern of the people in the region and in China's capital. These household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of the natural ecosystems, with mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered the most important ecosystem service. Stakeholder dialogues contributed to creating a scientific basis for a sustainable management in the future.
The Tarim River Basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin of China and one of the largest in whole Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim River solely depends on river water. This applies for anthropogenic activities (e.g. agriculture) as well as for the natural ecosystems so that both compete for water. The on-going increase of water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes formed the consortium SuMaRiO (www.sumario.de), which aims at gaining a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River Basin. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary to the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades due to enhanced glacier melt. Alone from 1989 to 2011, the area under agriculture more than doubled. Thereby, cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale farming to large-scale intensive farming. The major natural ecosystems along the Aksu and Tarim River are riparian ecosystems: Riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland. Within the SuMaRiO Cluster the focus was laid on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as dominant tree, because the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems can be found among those forests. On sites with groundwater distance of less than 7.5 m the annual increments correlated with river runoffs of the previous year. But, the further downstream along the Tarim River, the more the natural river dynamics ceased, which impacts on the recruitment of Populus euphratica. Household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of those riparian forests with the mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered as the most important ecosystem service. This interdisciplinary project will result in a decision support tool (DST), build on the participation of regional stakeholders and models based on results and field experiments. This DST finally shall assist stakeholders in balancing the water competition acknowledging the major external effects of any water allocation.
The link between atmospheric radicals and newly formed particles at a spruce forest site in Germany
(2014)
It has been claimed for more than a century that atmospheric new particle formation is primarily influenced by the presence of sulfuric acid. However, the activation process of sulfuric acid related clusters into detectable particles is still an unresolved topic. In this study we focus on the PARADE campaign measurements conducted during August/September 2011 at Mt Kleiner Feldberg in central Germany. During this campaign a set of radicals, organic and inorganic compounds and oxidants and aerosol properties were measured or calculated. We compared a range of organic and inorganic nucleation theories, evaluating their ability to simulate measured particle formation rates at 3 nm in diameter (J3) for a variety of different conditions. Nucleation mechanisms involving only sulfuric acid tentatively captured the observed noon-time daily maximum in J3, but displayed an increasing difference to J3 measurements during the rest of the diurnal cycle. Including large organic radicals, i.e. organic peroxy radicals (RO2) deriving from monoterpenes and their oxidation products, in the nucleation mechanism improved the correlation between observed and simulated J3. This supports a recently proposed empirical relationship for new particle formation that has been used in global models. However, the best match between theory and measurements for the site of interest was found for an activation process based on large organic peroxy radicals and stabilised Criegee intermediates (sCI). This novel laboratory-derived algorithm simulated the daily pattern and intensity of J3 observed in the ambient data. In this algorithm organic derived radicals are involved in activation and growth and link the formation rate of smallest aerosol particles with OH during daytime and NO3 during night-time. Because the RO2 lifetime is controlled by HO2 and NO we conclude that peroxy radicals and NO seem to play an important role for ambient radical chemistry not only with respect to oxidation capacity but also for the activation process of new particle formation. This is supposed to have significant impact of atmospheric radical species on aerosol chemistry and should be taken into account when studying the impact of new particles in climate feedback cycles.
We present the application of Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOF MS) for the analysis of halocarbons in the atmosphere, after cryogenic sample preconcentration and gas chromatographic separation. For the described field of application, the Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QP MS) is the state-of-the-art detector. This work aims at comparing two commercially available instruments, a QP MS and a TOF MS with respect to mass resolution, mass accuracy, sensitivity, measurement precision and detector linearity. Both mass spectrometers are operated on the same gas chromatographic system by splitting the column effluent to both detectors. The QP MS had to be operated in optimised Single Ion Monitoring (SIM) mode to achieve a sensitivity which could compete with the TOF MS. The TOF MS provided full mass range information in any acquired mass spectrum without losing sensitivity. Whilst the QP MS showed the performance already achieved in earlier tests, the sensitivity of the TOF MS was on average higher than that of the QP MS in the "operational" SIM mode by a factor of up to 3 reaching detection limits of less than 0.2 pg. Measurement precision determined for the whole analytical system was up to 0.2% depending on substance and sampled volume. The TOF MS instrument used for this study displayed significant non-linearities of up to 10% for two third of all analysed substances.
Immersion freezing is the most relevant heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanism through which ice crystals are formed in mixed-phase clouds. In recent years, an increasing number of laboratory experiments utilizing a variety of instruments have examined immersion freezing activity of atmospherically relevant ice-nucleating particles. However, an intercomparison of these laboratory results is a difficult task because investigators have used different ice nucleation (IN) measurement methods to produce these results. A remaining challenge is to explore the sensitivity and accuracy of these techniques and to understand how the IN results are potentially influenced or biased by experimental parameters associated with these techniques.
Within the framework of INUIT (Ice Nuclei Research Unit), we distributed an illite-rich sample (illite NX) as a representative surrogate for atmospheric mineral dust particles to investigators to perform immersion freezing experiments using different IN measurement methods and to obtain IN data as a function of particle concentration, temperature (T), cooling rate and nucleation time. A total of 17 measurement methods were involved in the data intercomparison. Experiments with seven instruments started with the test sample pre-suspended in water before cooling, while 10 other instruments employed water vapor condensation onto dry-dispersed particles followed by immersion freezing. The resulting comprehensive immersion freezing data set was evaluated using the ice nucleation active surface-site density, ns, to develop a representative ns(T) spectrum that spans a wide temperature range (−37 °C < T < −11 °C) and covers 9 orders of magnitude in ns.
In general, the 17 immersion freezing measurement techniques deviate, within a range of about 8 °C in terms of temperature, by 3 orders of magnitude with respect to ns. In addition, we show evidence that the immersion freezing efficiency expressed in ns of illite NX particles is relatively independent of droplet size, particle mass in suspension, particle size and cooling rate during freezing. A strong temperature dependence and weak time and size dependence of the immersion freezing efficiency of illite-rich clay mineral particles enabled the ns parameterization solely as a function of temperature. We also characterized the ns(T) spectra and identified a section with a steep slope between −20 and −27 °C, where a large fraction of active sites of our test dust may trigger immersion freezing. This slope was followed by a region with a gentler slope at temperatures below −27 °C. While the agreement between different instruments was reasonable below ~ −27 °C, there seemed to be a different trend in the temperature-dependent ice nucleation activity from the suspension and dry-dispersed particle measurements for this mineral dust, in particular at higher temperatures. For instance, the ice nucleation activity expressed in ns was smaller for the average of the wet suspended samples and higher for the average of the dry-dispersed aerosol samples between about −27 and −18 °C. Only instruments making measurements with wet suspended samples were able to measure ice nucleation above −18 °C. A possible explanation for the deviation between −27 and −18 °C is discussed. Multiple exponential distribution fits in both linear and log space for both specific surface area-based ns(T) and geometric surface area-based ns(T) are provided. These new fits, constrained by using identical reference samples, will help to compare IN measurement methods that are not included in the present study and IN data from future IN instruments.
This paper presents results from the "INUIT-JFJ/CLACE 2013" field campaign at the high alpine research station Jungfraujoch in January/February 2013. The chemical composition of ice particle residuals (IPR) in a size diameter range of 200–900 nm was measured in orographic, convective and non-convective clouds with a single particle mass spectrometer (ALABAMA) under ambient conditions characterized by temperatures between −28 and −4 °C and wind speed from 0.1 to 21 km h−1. Additionally, background aerosol particles in cloud free air were investigated. The IPR were sampled from mixed-phase clouds with two inlets which selectively extract small ice crystals in-cloud, namely the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI) and the Ice Selective Inlet (ISI). The IPR as well as the aerosol particles were classified into seven different particle types: (1) black carbon, (2) organic carbon, (3) black carbon internally mixed with organic carbon, (4) minerals, (5) one particle group (termed "BioMinSal") that may contain biological particles, minerals, or salts, (6) industrial metals, and (7) lead containing particles. For any sampled particle population it was determined by means of single particle mass spectrometer how many of the analyzed particles belonged to each of these categories. Accordingly, between 20 and 30% of the IPR and roughly 42% of the background particles contained organic carbon. The measured fractions of minerals in the IPR composition varied from 6 to 33%, while the values for the "BioMinSal" group were between 15 and 29%. Four percent to 31% of the IPR contained organic carbon mixed with black carbon. Both inlets delivered similar results of the chemical composition and of the particle size distribution, although lead was found only in the IPR sampled by the Ice-CVI. The results show that the ice particle residual composition varies substantially between different cloud events, which indicates the influence of different meteorological conditions, such as origin of the air masses, temperature and wind speed.
Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global historical irrigation data set (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arcmin resolution. We collected sub-national irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining sub-national irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to sub-national irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on historical maps for the western United States (around year 1900) and on a global map (around year 1960). Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge on irrigated land decreased from 1900 to 1950 whereas aridity decreased and river discharge remained approximately constant from 1950 to 2005. The data set and its documentation are made available in an open-data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi:10.13019/M20599).
During January/February 2013, at the High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch a measurement campaign was carried out, which was centered on atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INP) and ice particle residuals (IPR). Three different techniques for separation of INP and IPR from the non-ice-active particles are compared. The Ice Selective Inlet (ISI) and the Ice Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI) sample ice particles from mixed phase clouds and allow for the analysis of the residuals. The combination of the Fast Ice Nucleus Chamber (FINCH) and the Ice Nuclei Pumped Counterflow Virtual Impactor (IN-PCVI) provides ice-activating conditions to aerosol particles and extracts the activated INP for analysis.Collected particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis to determine size, chemical composition and mixing state. All INP/IPR-separating techniques had considerable abundances (median 20 – 70 %) of instrumental contamination artifacts (ISI: Si-O spheres, probably calibration aerosol; Ice-CVI: Al-O particles; FINCH+IN-PCVI: steel particles). Also, potential sampling artifacts (e.g., pure soluble material) occurred with a median abundance of < 20 %. While these could be explained as IPR by ice break-up, for INP their IN-ability pathway is less clear. After removal of the contamination artifacts, silicates and Ca-rich particles, carbonaceous material and metal oxides were the major INP/IPR particle types separated by all three techniques. Soot was a minor contributor. Lead was detected in less than 10 % of the particles, of which the majority were internal mixtures with other particle types. Sea-salt and sulfates were identified by all three methods as INP/IPR. Most samples showed a maximum of the INP/IPR size distribution at 400 nm geometric diameter. In a few cases, a second super-micron maximum was identified. Soot/carbonaceous material and metal oxides were present mainly in the submicron range. ISI and FINCH yielded silicates and Ca-rich particles mainly with diameters above 1 μm, while the Ice-CVI also separated many submicron IPR. As strictly parallel sampling could not be performed, a part of the discrepancies between the different techniques may result from variations in meteorological conditions and subsequent INP/IPR composition. The observed differences in the particle group abundances as well as in the mixing state of INP/IPR express the need for further studies to better understand the influence of the separating techniques on the INP/IPR chemical
composition.
Global warming, changes in the hydrological cycle and enhanced marine primary productivity all have been invoked to have contributed to the occurrence of widespread ocean anoxia during the Cenomanian-Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE2; ~ 94 Ma), but disentangling these factors on a regional scale has remained problematic. We generated palynological and organic geochemical records that allow the separation of these forcing factors in a core spanning the OAE2 from Wunstorf, Lower Saxony Basin (LSB; North Gemany), which exhibits cyclic black shale–marl alternations related to the orbital precession cycle.
Despite the widely varying depositional conditions complicating the interpretation of the obtained records, TEX86H indicates that sea-surface temperature (SST) evolution in the LSB during OAE2 resembles that of previously studied sites throughout the proto-North Atlantic. Cooling during the so-called Plenus Cold Event interrupted black shale deposition during the early stages of OAE2. However, TEX86 does not vary significantly across marl–black shale alternations, suggesting that temperature variations did not force the formation of the cyclic black shale horizons. Relative (i.e., with respect to marine palynomorphs) and absolute abundances of pollen and spores are elevated during phases of black shale deposition, indicative of enhanced precipitation and run-off. High abundances of cysts from inferred heterotrophic and euryhaline dinoflagellates supports high run-off, which likely introduced additional nutrients to the epicontinental shelf resulting in elevated marine primary productivity.
We conclude that orbitally-forced enhanced precipitation and run-off, in tandem with elevated marine primary productivity, were critical in cyclic black shale formation on the northwest European epicontinental shelf and potentially for other OAE2 sections in the proto-Atlantic and Western Interior Seaway at similar latitudes as well.
The Late Cretaceous is known to be mostly affected by warm periods interrupted temporarily by a number of cooling events. The reconstruction of the paleoclimatic conditions during a period of high concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is of great importance for the creation of future climate models. We applied the recently developed method reconstructing the SST from the TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbon atoms).
The sample material used for the present study was obtained from the tropical Late Cretaceous southern Tethys upwelling system (Negev/Israel), lasting from the Late Santonian to the Early Maastrichtian (~ 85 to 68 Ma). On the core samples from the Shefela basin, representing the outer belt of the upwelling system and the outcrop profile from the open mine Mishor Rotem (Efe Syncline), representing the inner belt, various bulk geochemical and biomarker studies were performed in this thesis.
Derived from TEX86 data, a significant long-term SST cooling trend from 36.0 to 29.3 °C is recognized during the Late Santonian and the Early Campanian in the southern Tethys margin. This is consistent with the opening and deepening of the Equatorial Atlantic Gateway (EAG) and the intrusion of cooler deep water from the southern Atlantic Ocean influencing the global SSTs and also the Tethys Ocean. Furthermore, the cooler near shore SST usually found in modern upwelling systems could be verified in case of the ancient upwelling system investigated in the present study. The calculated mean SST in the inner belt (27.7 °C) represented in the Efe Syncline was 1.5 °C cooler in comparison to the more seaward located outer belt (Shefela basin).
Moreover, geochemical and biomarker analyses were used to identify both the accumulation of high amounts of phosphate in the PM and good preservation of organic matter (OM) in the lower part of the OSM section. Total organic carbon (TOC) contents are highly variable over the whole profile reaching from 0.6 % in the MM, to 24.5 % in the OSM. Total iron (TFe) varies from 0.1 % in the PM to 3.3 % in the OSM and total sulfur (TS) varies between 0.1 % in the MM and 3.4 % in the OSM. Different correlations of TS, TOC and TFe were used to identify the conditions during the deposition of the different facies types. Natural sulfurization was found to play a key role in the preservation of the OM particularly in the lower part of the OSM. Samples from the OSM and the PM were deposited under dysoxic to anoxic conditions and iron limitation lasted during the deposition of the OSM and the PM, which effected the incorporation of sulfur into OM.
Phosphorus is highly accumulated in the sediments of the PM with a mean proportion of 11.5 % total phosphorus (TP), which is drastically reduced to a mean value of 0.9 % in the OSM and the MM. From the correlation of the bulk geochemical parameters TOC/TOCOR ratio and TP a major contribution of sulfate reducing bacteria to the phosphate deposition is concluded. This interrelation has previously been investigated in recent coastal upwelling systems off Peru, Chile, California and Namibia. This was further supported by the analysis of branched and monounsaturated fatty acids indicating the occurrence of sulfate reducing and sulfide oxidizing bacteria during the deposition.
According to the results from the analysis of n-alkanes and C27- to C29-steranes up to 95 % of the OM was of marine origin.
Organic sulfur compounds (OSC) were a major compound class in the aromatic hydrocarbon fraction and n-Alkyl and isoprenoid thiophenes were the most abundant, with highest amounts found for 2-methyl-5-tridecyl-thiophene (28 µg/g TOC). The relatively high abundance of ββ-C35 hopanoid thiophenes and epithiosteranes is equivalent to an incorporation of sulfur during the early stages of diagenesis.
Moreover, the geochemical parameters δ13Corg, δ15Norg, C/N and the pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph) ratio, were studied for reconstruction of seafloor and water column depositional environments. The high C/N ratio along with relatively low values of δ15Norg (4 ‰ to 6 ‰) and δ13Corg (-29 ‰ to -28 ‰) are consistent with a significant preferential loss of nitrogen-rich organic compounds during diagenesis. Oxygen-depleted conditions lasted during the deposition of the PM and the bottom of the OSM, reflected by the low Pr/Ph ratio of 0.11–0.7. In the upper part of the OSM and the MM the conditions changed from anoxic to dysoxic or oxic conditions. This environmental trend is consistent with co-occurring foraminiferal assemblages in the studied succession and implies that the benthic species in the Negev sequence were adapted to persistent minimum oxygen conditions by performing complete denitrification as recently found in many modern benthic foraminifera.
Furthermore, the anammox process could have influenced the nitrogen composition of the sediments. In this anaerobically process nitrite and ammonia are converted to molecular nitrogen.
Background: The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal.
Methodology/Principal findings: We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance.
Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.
Das Thema dieser Arbeit war die Untersuchung der natürlichen Variationen von den zwei primordialen Uranisotopen (238U und 235U) mit einem Schwerpunkt auf Proben, die (1) die kontinentale Kruste und ihre Verwitterungsprodukte (d.h. Granite, Shales und Flusswasser) repräsentieren, (2) Produkte der hydrothermalen Alteration vom mittelozeanischen Rücken widerspiegeln (d.h. alterierte Basalte, Karbonatgänge und hydrothermales Wasser) und (3) aus abgegrenzten euxinischen Becken (d.h. Proben aus der Wassersäule und den dazugehörigen Sedimenten) stammen. Das allgemeine Ziel war das Verständnis, unter welchen Bedingungen und Mechanismen eine Fraktionierung der zwei häufigsten Uranisotope (238U und 235U) in der Natur erfolgt, zu verbessern.
Die untersuchten Haupt- und Nebenflüsse unterscheiden sich sowohl in Ihrer Urankonzentration (c(U)) als auch in Ihrer Uranisotopenzusammensetzung (δ238U), wobei die Nebenflüsse eine geringere Urankonzentration (0.87 nmol/kg bis 3.08 nmol/kg) und eine schwerere Uranisotopenzusammensetzung aufweisen (-0.29 ‰ bis +0.01 ‰ im δ238U) im Vergleich zu den Hauptflüssen (c(U) = 5.19 nmol/kg bis 11.69 nmol/kg und d238U = -0.31 ‰ bis +0.13 ‰) aufweisen. Die untersuchten Gesteinsproben fallen alle in einen recht schmalen Bereich von δ238U, zwischen -0.45 ‰ und -0.21 ‰, mit einem Durchschnittswert von -0.30 ‰ ± 0.04 ‰ (doppelte Standardabweichung). Deren Uranisotopenvariationen sind unabhängig von der Urankonzentration (11.8 µg/g bis 1.3 µg/g), dem Alter (3.80 Ga bis 328 Ma), der Probenlokalität und Grad der Differenzierung. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen der Hauptflüsse, die die Uranhauptquelle für den Ozean darstellen, schlagen wir für zukünftige Berechnungen in der Massenbilanz des Urans einen neuen Wert als beste Abschätzung für die Quelle des Urans im Ozean vor, δ238U = -0.23 ‰.
Die Produkte der hydrothermalen Alteration, alterierte Basalte und Kalziumkarbonatgänge, zeigten etwas stärkere Isotopenvariationen (δ238U zwischen -0.63 ‰ und +0.27 ‰) als erwartet und die hydrothermalen Fluide wiesen eine etwas leichtere Uranisotopenzusammensetzung als Meerwasser ((-0.43 ± 0.25) ‰ vs. (-0.37 ± 0.03) ‰) auf. Diese Ergebnisse sind in Übereinstimmung mit einem Modell, dass annimmt, dass die beobachtete Isotopenfraktionierung hauptsächlich ein Ergebnis von Redoxprozessen ist, z.B. die partielle Reduktion von löslichem UVI aus dem Meerwasser während der hydrothermalen Alteration, was zu einer Anreicherung der schweren Uranisotope in der reduzierten Uranspezies (UIV) führt und 2) das bevorzugte Entfernen von UIV aus den hydrothermalen Fluid und der Einbau in die alterierte ozeanische Kruste. Durch diesen Prozess wird das hydrothermale Fluid an schweren Uranisotopen verarmt und somit würden auch die alterierten Basalte und Karbonate ein niedriges δ238U aufweisen, wenn sie mit dem isotopisch leichten hydrothermalen Fluid in Kontakt gekommen sind.
Die Untersuchung von Wasser- und Sedimentproben aus der Ostsee und dem anoxischen Kyllaren Fjord (Norwegen) auf deren Uran- und Mo-Isotopenzusammensetzung zeigte, dass die Uranisotopenzusammensetzung der Sedimente abhängt von (1) dem Ausmaß des Uranaustrags aus der Wassersäule (in einer ähnlichen Art und Weise wie bei den Molybdänisotopen) und (2) der Sedimentationsrate, d.h. der Fraktion von authigenem- relativ zum dedritischen Uran in den Sedimenten. Aufgrund der hohen Sedimentationsrate zeigen die Sedimente aus dem Kyllaren Fjord nur eine moderate authigene Urananreicherung und eine leichtere Uranisotopenzusammensetzung als Sedimente aus dem Schwarzen Meer. In den anoxischen Becken der Ostsee erfolgt dagegen eine starke Mo- und schwache U-Isotopenfraktionierung zwischen Wasser und Sediment. Durch die regelmäßigen auftretenden Spülereignisse mit sauerstoffreichem Wasser wurden vermutlich die ursprünglichen anoxischen Mo- und U-Isotopensignaturen der Sedimente verändert. Demzufolge müssen die Sedimente durchgehend anoxischen Bedingungen ausgesetzt sein, um eine Mo- und U-Isotopensignatur von den Redoxbedingungen während der Ablagerungen zu speichern.
Der Vergleich zwischen Molybdän- und Uranisotopen in der Ostsee und dem anoxischen Kyllaren Fjord zeigte, dass sich Uran- und Molybdänisotope in stark euxinischen Wassersäulen (c(H2S) > 11 µmol/L) entgegengesetzt verhalten. Dementsprechend ergänzen sich die beiden Isotopensysteme und können genutzt werden, um die Ablagerungsbedingungen in abgeschlossenen Becken und die Redoxentwicklung des Paläoozeans zu untersuchen.
The Sahel has been the focus of scientific interest in environmental-human dynamics and interactions. The objective of the present study is to contribute to the recent debate on the re-greening of Sahel. The paper examines the dynamics of barren land in the Sahel of Burkina Faso through analysis of remotely-sensed and rainfall data from 1975–2011. Discussions with farmers and land management staff have helped to understand the anthropogenic efforts toward soil restoration to enable the subsistence farming agriculture. Results showed that area of barren land has been fluctuating during the study period with approximately 10-year cyclicity. Similarly, rainfall, both at national and local levels has followed the same trends. The trends of the area of barren land and rainfall variability suggest that when rainfall increases, the area of barren land decreases and barren land increases when rainfall decreases. This implies that rainfall is one of the main factors driving the change in area of barren land. In addition, humans have contributed positively and negatively to the change by restoring barren lands for agriculture using locally known techniques and by accelerating land degradation through intensive and inappropriate land use practices.
Die Anwendung der WKB-Theorie zur Simulation der schwach nichtlinearen Dynamik von Schwerewellen
(2014)
Es ist schon seit Längerem bekannt, dass Schwerewellen die Zirkulation der mittleren Atmosphäre beeinflussen. Sie werden fast ausschließlich in der Troposphäre durch Prozesse wie Gebirgsüberströmung, Konvektionen, Frontogenese etc. erzeugt. Sie propagieren von ihrem Entstehungsort in der Troposphäre in die höheren Schichten der Atmosphäre und transportieren dabei ihre Energie und ihren Impuls. Unter der Voraussetzung, dass die Energie von Schwerewellen erhalten bleibt und die Dichte der Atmosphäre mit der Höhe exponentiell abnimmt, wächst die Amplitude der Schwerewellen so stark an, dass sie brechen und ihren Impuls in Stratosphäre und Mesosphäre deponieren. Als Folge davon beeinflussen Schwerewellen die großräumige Zirkulation der Atmosphäre und sind damit ein wichtiges Bindeglied, welches die Troposphäre mit anderen Atmosphärenbereichen verbindet. Folglich ist es wichtig, dass die Klima- und Wettermodelle in der Lage sind, die Schwerewellendynamik zu beschreiben. Bedauerlicherweise können diese Modelle nicht das komplette Schwerewellenspektrum auflösen. Somit müssen Schwerewellen in den Modellen parametrisiert werden. Viele Parametrisierungsschemen basieren auf Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin(WKB)-Theorie. Die WKB-Gleichungen, die sogenannten Strahlengleichungen, beschreiben die räumliche und zeitliche Variation der Welleneigenschaften wie Wellenzahl, Wellenamplitude und Wellenfrequenz entlang der Charakteristiken, welche durch die lokale Gruppengeschwindigkeit vorgegeben sind. Die numerische Modelle, die auf den Strahlengleichungen basieren, werden als Strahlenmodelle bezeichnet. In Strahlenmodellen werden Schwerewellen durch Wellenteilchen dargestellt. Zur Zeit verwenden die Strahlenmodelle stationäre Strahlengleichungen, da die Wechselwirkung eines zeitabhängigen Schwerewellenfeldes mit einem zeit- und ortsabhängigen Hintergrund zu Problemen in Strahlenmodellen führen kann. Die Strahlengleichungen basieren auf der Annahme, dass sich nie zwei Wellenteilchen mit den unterschiedlichen Welleneigenschaften an einer Position befinden können. Wenn an einer Position zwei Wellenteilchen mit den unterschiedlichen Wellenzahlen befinden, entsteht sogenannte Kaustik: ein Punkt im Raum, an dem sich mehrere Charakteristiken kreuzen. Wenn eine Kaustik entsteht, kann die Wellenamplitude nicht mehr bestimmt werden. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es mithilfe der WKB-Theorie die Ausbreitung von Schwerewellenpaketen in einer raum- und zeitabhängigen Hintergrundströmung zu beschreiben und ein numerisches Modell zu entwickeln, welches die Schwerewellen parametrisieren und ihre Wechselwirkung mit der raum- und zeitabhängigen Hintergrundströmung beschreiben kann.
Einfachheitshalber wird in dieser Arbeit nur die Wechselwirkung zwischen horizontal periodischen, vertikal lokalisierten Schwerewellenpaketen und der raum- und zeitabhängigen Hintergrundströmung betrachtet.
Interpretation magnetotellurischer Messungen auf Island und 3D-Modellierungen des Island-Plumes
(2014)
Die Lage und der geologische Aufbau Islands sind eine einmalige geologische und geophysikalische Besonderheit - nur hier liegt der Mittelatlantische Rücken deutlich oberhalb des Meeresspiegels. Eine Theorie ist, dass unter Island ein sogenannter Hotspot existiert - ein aufsteigender Mantelplume (oder eine andere Temperatur- und Schmelzanomalie). Das bedeutet, dass die Tektonik, die Petrologie und die (geo)physikalischen Parameter von der Wechselwirkung der Meeresbodenspreizung mit dem aufsteigenden Mantelplume bestimmt werden. Die magnetotellurischen Untersuchungen auf Island und die magnetotellurischen Modelle der vorliegenden Arbeit lassen sich nach Zieltiefen unterteilen. Im ersten Teil steht vor allem die Untersuchung der Leitfähigkeitsstruktur des oberen Erdmantels im Vordergrund, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Modellstudien liegt. Hier wird die Theorie des aufsteigenden Mantelplumes aufgegriffen und hinsichtlich der Möglichkeiten der Magnetotellurik (MT) diesen zu detektieren, untersucht. In dieser Arbeit werden deshalb verschiedene synthetische 3D-Modelle untersucht. Diese sollen klären, unter welchen Bedingungen, d.h. bei welcher Tiefenlage, Ausdehnung und Leitfähigkeit, ein Mantelplume in der Magnetotellurik messbare Signale liefert. Da Temperatur und Schmelzanteil hierbei eine entscheidende Rolle spielen, werden auch Ergebnisse von geodynamischen Modellierungen verwendet. Die verschiedenen Modellierungen machen deutlich, dass der Plume in Modellen mit maximal 1% Schmelzanteil nur sehr schlecht mit der MT aufgelöst werden kann. Ein weiteres Problem ist die relativ geringe laterale Ausdehnung des Bereichs hoher Leitfähigkeit. Insbesondere bei Berücksichtigung des Krustenleiters liegen die Effekte des Plumes im Bereich der Messfehler bei realen Daten. Erst bei 3% Schmelzanteil im Plume ergeben sich Charakteristiken in den Sondierungskurven, die eindeutig dem Plume zugeordnet werden können. Im zweiten Teil liegt das Augenmerk auf der Leitfähigkeitsstruktur der isländischen Kruste, für deren Untersuchung ca. 200 Datensätze aus zahlreichen deutsch-isländischen Messkampagnen zur Verfügung stehen. In dieser Arbeit werden sie ganzheitlich ausgewertet und interpretiert. Hier steht im Speziellen der in verschiedenen früheren Untersuchungen gefundene gute Leiter in ca. 10 km Tiefe im Vordergrund. Seine Ausdehnung, Tiefenlage und Leitfähigkeit sowie laterale Änderungen werden genauer untersucht. Dazu werden aus den gemessenen Daten und den daraus ermittelten magnetotellurischen Impedanztensoren nicht nur die Sondierungskurven, sondern weitere Parameter wie Phasentensoren und Rotationsinvarianten abgeleitet und diskutiert. Um einen Überblick über die räumliche Verteilung der Untergrundstrukturen zu erhalten, werden die einzelnen Messpunkte charakterisiert und Stationen mit ähnlichem Verhalten in Gruppen zusammengefasst. 1D- und 2D- Inversionsmodelle liefern einen direkten Hinweis auf die Leitfähigkeitsverteilung. Diese zeigt ausgeprägte laterale Änderungen. Aus den 2D-Modellen ergeben sich Hinweise, die darauf schließen lassen, dass diese Zone niedrigen Widerstands nicht durchgängig oder geschlossen sein muss, um die gemessenen Daten zu erklären. Der gute Leiter scheint weniger mit der Aufwölbung durch den vermuteten Mantelplume oder eine andere tiefer liegende Schmelzanomalie korreliert zu sein. Die lateralen und vertikalen Variationen lassen auf einen Zusammenhang mit den Vulkansystemen auf Island schließen. Darauf deuten auch die Induktionsvektoren hin, die lateral betrachtet stark variieren. Ein weiteres Ergebnis ist das Fehlen dieses Krustenleiters in einem mindestens 20km breiten Streifen entlang der Südküste.