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Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%.
The 99th Annual Meeting of the Geologische Vereinigung (GV) and International Conference on Earth Control on Planetary Life and Environment, held in October 2009 at the Geosciences Centre of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, brings together researchers from all fields of Earth Sciences and beyond to shape an attractive interdisciplinary program on the geological history of Planet Earth and its control over and interaction with biological evolution, development of habitats, environmental and climate change as well as history and culture of Homo sapiens. This volume contains the abstracts of invited keynote lectures as well as all oral and poster presentations.
Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study
(2013)
Cameron, David R. ; Oijen, Marcel van ; Werner, Christian ; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus ; Haas, Edwin ; Heuvelink, Gerardus Bernardus Maria ; Grote, Rüdiger ; Kiese, Ralf ; Kros, Johannes ; Kuhnert, Matthias ; Leip, Adrian ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Reuter, Hannes Isaak ; Schelhaas, Mart Jan ; De Vries, Wim ; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest, whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.
Cameron, David R. ; Oijen, Marcel van ; Werner, Christian ; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus ; Haas, Edwin ; Heuvelink, Gerardus Bernardus Maria ; Grote, Rüdiger ; Kiese, Ralf ; Kuhnert, Matthias ; Kros, Johannes ; Leip, Adrian ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Reuter, Hannes Isaak ; Schelhaas, Mart Jan ; De Vries, Wim ; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon source was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.
Wimmer, Daniela ; Lehtipalo, Katrianne ; Franchin, Alessandro ; Kangasluoma, Juha ; Kreissl, Fabian ; Kürten, Christoph Andreas ; Kupc, Agnieszka ; Metzger, Axel ; Mikkilä, Jyri ; Petäjä, Tuukka ; Riccobono, Francesco ; Vanhanen, Joonas ; Kulmala, Markku ; Curtius, Joachim
When studying new particle formation, the uncertainty in determining the "true" nucleation rate is considerably reduced when using Condensation Particle Counters (CPCs) capable of measuring concentrations of aerosol particles at sizes close to or even at the critical cluster size (1–2 nm). Recently CPCs, able to reliably detect particles below 2 nm in size and even close to 1 nm became available. The corrections needed to calculate nucleation rates are substantially reduced compared to scaling the observed formation rate to the nucleation rate at the critical cluster size. However, this improved instrumentation requires a careful characterization of their cut-off size and the shape of the detection efficiency curve because relatively small shifts in the cut-off size can translate into larger relative errors when measuring particles close to the cut-off size.
Here we describe the development of two continuous flow CPCs using diethylene glycol (DEG) as the working fluid. The design is based on two TSI 3776 counters. Several sets of measurements to characterize their performance at different temperature settings were carried out. Furthermore two mixing-type Particle Size Magnifiers (PSM) A09 from Airmodus were characterized in parallel. One PSM was operated at the highest mixing ratio (1 L min−1 saturator flow), and the other was operated in a scanning mode, where the mixing ratios are changed periodically, resulting in a range of cut-off sizes. Different test aerosols were generated using a nano-Differential Mobility Analyzer (nano-DMA) or a high resolution DMA, to obtain detection efficiency curves for all four CPCs. One calibration setup included a high resolution mass spectrometer (APi-TOF) for the determination of the chemical composition of the generated clusters. The lowest cut-off sizes were achieved with negatively charged ammonium sulphate clusters, resulting in cut-offs of 1.4 nm for the laminar flow CPCs and 1.2 and 1.1 nm for the PSMs. A comparison of one of the laminar-flow CPCs and one of the PSMs measuring ambient and laboratory air showed good agreement between the instruments.
The SAWNUC microphysical aerosol nucleation model is used to study the effect of reactor walls on the interpretation of nucleation experiments with respect to nucleation theory. This work shows that loss processes, such as wall losses, influence the interpretation of nucleation experiments, especially at low growth rates and short lifetime of freshly nucleated particles. In these cases the power dependency of the formation rates, determined at a certain particle size, with respect to H2SO4 does not correspond to the approximate number of H2SO4 molecules in the critical cluster as expected by the first nucleation theorem. Observed ∂log(J)/∂log([H2SO4]) therefore can vary widely for identical nucleation conditions but different sink terms.
Tegtmeier, Susann ; Krüger, Kirstin ; Quack, Birgit ; Atlas, Elliot L. ; Blake, Donald R. ; Bönisch, Harald ; Engel, Andreas ; Hepach, Helmke ; Hossaini, Ryan ; Navarro, Maria A. ; Raimund, Stefan ; Sala, Stephan ; Shi, Qiang ; Ziska, Franziska
We investigate the contribution of oceanic methyl iodide (CH3I) to the stratospheric iodine budget. Based on CH3I measurements during three tropical ship campaigns and the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART we provide a detailed analysis of CH3I transport from the ocean surface to the cold point in the upper tropical tropopause layer (TTL). While average oceanic emissions differ by less than 50% from campaign to campaign, the measurements show much stronger variations within each campaign. A positive correlation between the oceanic CH3I emissions and the efficiency of CH3I troposphere–stratosphere transport has been identified for some cruise sections. The mechanism of strong horizontal surface winds triggering large emissions on the one hand and being associated with tropical convective systems, such as developing typhoons, on the other hand, could explain the identified correlations. As a result of the simultaneous occurrence of large CH3I emissions and strong vertical uplift, localized maximum mixing ratios of 0.6 ppt CH3I at the cold point have been determined for observed peak emissions during the SHIVA-Sonne campaign in the coastal West Pacific. The other two campaigns give considerable smaller maxima of 0.1 ppt CH3I for the TransBrom campaign in the open West Pacific and 0.03 ppt for emissions from the coastal East Atlantic during the DRIVE campaign. In order to assess the representativeness of the large local mixing ratios we use climatological emission scenarios to derive global upper air estimates of CH3I abundances. The model results are compared to available upper air measurements including data from the recent ATTREX and HIPPO2 aircraft campaigns. In the East Pacific region, the location of the available measurement campaigns in the upper TTL, the comparisons give a good agreement indicating that around 0.01 to 0.02 ppt of CH3I enter the stratosphere. However, other tropical regions, which are subject to stronger convective activity show larger CH3I entrainment, e.g., 0.08 ppt in the West Pacific. The strong variations in the geographical distribution of CH3I entrainment suggest that currently available upper air measurements are not representative of global estimates and further campaigns will be necessary in order to better understand the CH3I contribution to stratospheric iodine.
Bradshaw, Catherine D. ; Lunt, Daniel J. ; Flecker, Rachel ; Salzmann, Ulrich ; Pound, Matthew J. ; Haywood, Alan M. ; Eronen, Jussi
In the original manuscript, Figs. 7–16 included fonts which were not correctly embedded in the file. As such, unless certain propriety software (ArcGIS) is installed on the viewing platform, the figures will appear corrupted. In this Corrigendum, Figs. 7–16 and their captions are reproduced with the fonts correctly embedded. Please find the correct figures below.
Bradshaw, Catherine D. ; Lunt, Daniel J. ; Flecker, Rachel ; Salzmann, Ulrich ; Pound, Matthew J. ; Haywood, Alan M. ; Eronen, Jussi
The late Miocene palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today, and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO2 record of at least 200 ppm. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO2 concentration in the determination of late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that these data accurately reflect the late Miocene climate, and that the late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that:
1. Both palaeogeography and atmospheric CO2 contribute to the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates. However these contributions exibit synergy and so do not add linearly.
2. The vast majority of the proxy-derived temperature differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates can only be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates.