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Processes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) are of importance for the global climate, for the stratospheric dynamics and air chemistry, and they influence the global distribution of water vapour, trace gases and aerosols. The mechanisms underlying cloud formation and variability in the UT/LS are of scientific concern as these still are not adequately described and quantified by numerical models. Part of the reasons for this is the scarcity of detailed in-situ measurements in particular from the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL) within the UT/LS. In this contribution we provide measurements of particle number densities and the amounts of non-volatile particles in the submicron size range present in the UT/LS over Southern Brazil, West Africa, and Northern Australia. The data were collected in-situ on board of the Russian high altitude research aircraft M-55 "Geophysica" using the specialised COPAS (COndensation PArticle counting System) instrument during the TROCCINOX (Araçatuba, Brazil, February 2005), the SCOUT-O3 (Darwin, Australia, December 2005), and SCOUT-AMMA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, August 2006) campaigns. The vertical profiles obtained are compared to those from previous measurements from the NASA DC-8 and NASA WB-57F over Costa Rica and other tropical locations between 1999 and 2007. The number density of the submicron particles as function of altitude was found to be remarkably constant (even back to 1987) over the tropical UT/LS altitude band such that a parameterisation suitable for models can be extracted from the measurements. At altitudes corresponding to potential temperatures above 430 K a slight increase of the number densities from 2005/2006 results from the data in comparison to the 1987 to 2007 measurements. The origins of this increase are unknown. By contrast the data from Northern hemispheric mid latitudes do not exhibit such an increase between 1999 and 2006. Vertical profiles of the non-volatile fraction of the submicron particles were also measured by a COPAS channel and are presented here. The resulting profiles of the non-volatile number density fraction show a pronounced maximum of 50% in the tropical TTL over Australia and West Africa. Below and above this fraction is much lower attaining values of 10% and smaller. In the lower stratosphere the fine particles mostly consist of sulphuric acid which is reflected in the low numbers of non-volatile residues measured by COPAS. Without detailed chemical composition measurements the reason for the increase of non-volatile particle fractions cannot yet be given. The long distance transfer flights to Brazil, Australia and West-Africa were executed during a time window of 17 months within a period of relative volcanic quiescence. Thus the data measured during these transfers represent a "snapshot picture" documenting the status of a significant part of the global UT/LS aerosol (with sizes below 1 μm) at low concentration levels 15 years after the last major (i.e., the 1991 Mount Pinatubo) eruption. The corresponding latitudinal distributions of the measured particle number densities are also presented in this paper in order to provide input on the UT/LS background aerosol for modelling purposes.
Current atmospheric models do not include secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production from gas-phase reactions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Recent studies have shown that primary semivolatile emissions, previously assumed to be inert, undergo oxidation in the gas phase, leading to SOA formation. This opens the possibility that low-volatility gas-phase precursors are a potentially large source of SOA. In this work, SOA formation from gas-phase photooxidation of naphthalene, 1-methylnaphthalene (1-MN), 2-methylnaphthalene (2-MN), and 1,2-dimethylnaphthalene (1,2-DMN) is studied in the Caltech dual 28-m3 chambers. Under high-NOx conditions and aerosol mass loadings between 10 and 40 μg m, the SOA yields (mass of SOA per mass of hydrocarbon reacted) ranged from 0.19 to 0.30 for naphthalene, 0.19 to 0.39 for 1-MN, 0.26 to 0.45 for 2-MN, and constant at 0.31 for 1,2-DMN. Under low-NOx conditions, the SOA yields were measured to be 0.73, 0.68, and 0.58, for naphthalene, 1-MN, and 2-MN, respectively. The SOA was observed to be semivolatile under high-NOx conditions and essentially nonvolatile under low-NOx conditions, owing to the higher fraction of ring-retaining products formed under low-NOx conditions. When applying these measured yields to estimate SOA formation from primary emissions of diesel engines and wood burning, PAHs are estimated to yield 3–5 times more SOA than light aromatic compounds. PAHs can also account for up to 54% of the total SOA from oxidation of diesel emissions, representing a potentially large source of urban SOA.
Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.
Sulphuric acid, ammonia, amines, and oxidised organics play a crucial role in nanoparticle formation in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the composition of nucleated nanoparticles formed from these compounds in the CLOUD chamber experiments at CERN. The investigation is carried out via analysis of the particle hygroscopicity, ethanol affinity, oxidation state, and ion composition. Hygroscopicity was studied by a hygroscopic tandem differential mobility analyser and a cloud condensation nuclei counter, ethanol affinity by an organic differential mobility analyser and particle oxidation level by a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer. The ion composition was studied by an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight mass spectrometer. The volume fraction of the organics in the particles during their growth from sizes of a few nanometers to tens of nanometers was derived from measured hygroscopicity assuming the Zdanovski-Stokes-Robinson relationship, and compared to values gained from the spectrometers. The ZSR-relationship was also applied to obtain the measured ethanol affinities during the particle growth, which were used to derive the volume fractions of sulphuric acid and the other inorganics (e.g. ammonium salts). In the presence of sulphuric acid and ammonia, particles with a mobility diameter of 150 nm were chemically neutralised to ammonium sulphate. In the presence of oxidation products of pinanediol, the organic volume fraction of freshly nucleated particles increased from 0.4 to ∼0.9, with an increase in diameter from 2 to 63 nm. Conversely, the sulphuric acid volume fraction decreased from 0.6 to 0.1 when the particle diameter increased from 2 to 50 nm. The results provide information on the composition of nucleated aerosol particles during their growth in the presence of various combinations of sulphuric acid, ammonia, dimethylamine and organic oxidation products.
During the APE-THESEO mission in the Indian Ocean the Myasishchev Design Bureau stratospheric research aircraft M55 Geophysica performed a flight over and within the inner core region of tropical cyclone Davina. Measurements of total water, water vapour, temperature, aerosol backscattering, ozone and tracers were made and are discussed here in comparison with the averages of those quantities acquired during the campaign time frame.
Temperature anomalies in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), warmer than average in the lower part and colder than average in the upper TTL were observed. Ozone was strongly reduced compared to its average value, and thick cirrus decks were present up to the cold point, sometimes topped by a layer of very dry air. Evidence for meridional transport of trace gases in the stratosphere above the cyclone and the perturbed water distribution in the TTL is illustrated and discussed.
Number concentrations of total and non-volatile aerosol particles with size diameters >0.01 µm as well as particle size distributions (0.4–23 µm diameter) were measured in situ in the Arctic lower stratosphere (10–20.5 km altitude). The measurements were obtained during the campaigns European Polar Stratospheric Cloud and Lee Wave Experiment (EUPLEX) and Envisat-Arctic-Validation (EAV). The campaigns were based in Kiruna, Sweden, and took place from January to March 2003. Measurements were conducted onboard the Russian high-altitude research aircraft Geophysica using the low-pressure Condensation Nucleus Counter COPAS (COndensation PArticle Counter System) and a modified FSSP 300 (Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe). Around 18–20 km altitude typical total particle number concentrations nt range at 10–20 cm−3 (ambient conditions). Correlations with the trace gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) are discussed. Inside the polar vortex the total number of particles >0.01 µm increases with potential temperature while N2O is decreasing which indicates a source of particles in the above polar stratosphere or mesosphere. A separate channel of the COPAS instrument measures the fraction of aerosol particles non-volatile at 250°C. Inside the polar vortex a much higher fraction of particles contained non-volatile residues than outside the vortex (~24% outside vortex). This is most likely due to a strongly increased fraction of meteoritic material in the particles which is transported downward from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex. The high fraction of non-volatile residual particles gives therefore experimental evidence for downward transport of mesospheric air inside the polar vortex. It is also shown that the fraction of non-volatile residual particles serves directly as a suitable experimental vortex tracer. Nanometer-sized meteoritic smoke particles may also serve as nuclei for the condensation of gaseous sulfuric acid and water in the polar vortex and these additional particles may be responsible for the increase in the observed particle concentration at low N2O. The number concentrations of particles >0.4 µm measured with the FSSP decrease markedly inside the polar vortex with increasing potential temperature, also a consequence of subsidence of air from higher altitudes inside the vortex. Another focus of the analysis was put on the particle measurements in the lowermost stratosphere. For the total particle density relatively high number concentrations of several hundred particles per cm3 at altitudes below ~14 km were observed in several flights. To investigate the origin of these high number concentrations we conducted air mass trajectory calculations and compared the particle measurements with other trace gas observations. The high number concentrations of total particles in the lowermost stratosphere are probably caused by transport of originally tropospheric air from lower latitudes and are potentially influenced by recent particle nucleation.
The ambient and laboratory molecular and ion clusters were investigated. Here we present data on the ambient concentrations of both charged and uncharged molecular clusters as well as the performance of a pulse height condensation particle counter (PH-CPC) and an expansion condensation particle counter (E-CPC). The ambient molecular cluster concentrations were measured using both instruments, and they were deployed in conjunction with ion spectrometers and other aerosol instruments in Hyytiälä, Finland at the SMEAR II station during 1 March to 30 June 2007. The observed cluster concentrations varied and were from ca. 1000 to 100 000 cm−3. Both instruments showed similar concentrations. The average size of detected clusters was approximately 1.8 nm. As the atmospheric measurements at sub 2-nm particles and molecular clusters are a challenging task, and we were most likely unable to detect the smallest clusters, the reported concentrations are our best estimates for minimum cluster concentrations in boreal forest environment.
ucleation experiments starting from the reaction of OH radicals with SO2 have been performed in the IfT-LFT flow tube under atmospheric conditions at 293±0.5 K for a relative humidity of 13–61%. The presence of different additives (H2, CO, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene) for adjusting the OH radical concentration and resulting OH levels in the range (4–300)·105 molecule cm−3 did not influence the nucleation process itself. The number of detected particles as well as the threshold H2SO4 concentration needed for nucleation was found to be strongly dependent on the counting efficiency of the used counting devices. High-sensitivity particle counters allowed the measurement of freshly nucleated particles with diameters down to about 1.5 nm. A parameterization of the experimental data was developed using power law equations for H2SO4 and H2O vapour. The exponent for H2SO4 from different measurement series was in the range of 1.7–2.1 being in good agreement with those arising from analysis of nucleation events in the atmosphere. For increasing relative humidity, an increase of the particle number was observed. The exponent for H2O vapour was found to be 3.1 representing a first estimate. Addition of 1.2·1011 molecule cm−3 or 1.2·1012 molecule cm−3 of NH3 (range of atmospheric NH3 peak concentrations) revealed that NH3 has a measureable, promoting effect on the nucleation rate under these conditions. The promoting effect was found to be more pronounced for relatively dry conditions. NH3 showed a contribution to particle growth. Adding the amine tert-butylamine instead of NH3, the enhancing impact for nucleation and particle growth appears to be stronger.
During a 4-week run in October–November 2006, a pilot experiment was performed at the CERN Proton Synchrotron in preparation for the CLOUD1 experiment, whose aim is to study the possible influence of cosmic rays on clouds. The purpose of the pilot experiment was firstly to carry out exploratory measurements of the effect of ionising particle radiation on aerosol formation from trace H2SO4 vapour and secondly to provide technical input for the CLOUD design. A total of 44 nucleation bursts were produced and recorded, with formation rates of particles above the 3 nm detection threshold of between 0.1 and 100 cm−3s−1, and growth rates between 2 and 37 nm h−1. The corresponding H2SO4 concentrations were typically around 106 cm−3 or less. The experimentally-measured formation rates and H2SO4 concentrations are comparable to those found in the atmosphere, supporting the idea that sulphuric acid is involved in the nucleation of atmospheric aerosols. However, sulphuric acid alone is not able to explain the observed rapid growth rates, which suggests the presence of additional trace vapours in the aerosol chamber, whose identity is unknown. By analysing the charged fraction, a few of the aerosol bursts appear to have a contribution from ion-induced nucleation and ion-ion recombination to form neutral clusters. Some indications were also found for the accelerator beam timing and intensity to influence the aerosol particle formation rate at the highest experimental SO2 concentrations of 6 ppb, although none was found at lower concentrations. Overall, the exploratory measurements provide suggestive evidence for ion-induced nucleation or ion-ion recombination as sources of aerosol particles. However in order to quantify the conditions under which ion processes become significant, improvements are needed in controlling the experimental variables and in the reproducibility of the experiments. Finally, concerning technical aspects, the most important lessons for the CLOUD design include the stringent requirement of internal cleanliness of the aerosol chamber, as well as maintenance of extremely stable temperatures (variations below 0.1°C).
River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecosystem responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate modelsand two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated.
We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases.
Thus, by the 2050s, climate change will have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics much more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reduction. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.
Global-scale information on natural river flows and anthropogenic river flow alterations is required to identify areas where aqueous ecosystems are expected to be strongly degraded. Such information can support the identification of environmental flow guidelines and a sustainable water management that balances the water demands of humans and ecosystems. This study presents the first global assessment of the anthropogenic alteration of river flow regimes by water withdrawals and dams, focusing in particular on the change of flow variability. Six ecologically relevant flow indicators were quantified using an improved version of the global water model WaterGAP. WaterGAP simulated, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree, river discharge as affected by human water withdrawals and dams, as well as naturalized discharge without this type of human interference. Mainly due to irrigation, long-term average river discharge and statistical low flow Q90 (monthly river discharge that is exceeded in 9 out of 10 months) have decreased by more than 10% on one sixth and one quarter of the global land area (excluding Antarctica and Greenland), respectively. Q90 has increased significantly on only 5% of the land area, downstream of reservoirs. Due to both water withdrawals and dams, seasonal flow amplitude has decreased significantly on one sixth of the land area, while interannual variability has increased on one quarter of the land area mainly due to irrigation. It has decreased on only 8% of the land area, in areas with little consumptive water use that are downstream of dams. Areas most affected by anthropogenic river flow alterations are the western and central USA, Mexico, the western coast of South America, the Mediterranean rim, Southern Africa, the semi-arid and arid countries of the Near East and Western Asia, Pakistan and India, Northern China and the Australian Murray-Darling Basin, as well as some Arctic rivers. Due to a large number of uncertainties related e.g. to the estimation of water use and reservoir operation rules, the analysis is expected to provide only first estimates of river flow alterations that should be refined in the future.
Pollen-based climate reconstructions were performed on two high-resolution pollen – marines cores from the Alboran and Aegean Seas in order to unravel the climatic variability in the coastal settings of the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 cal yrs BP (the Lateglacial, and early to mid-Holocene). The quantitative climate reconstructions for the Alboran and Aegean Sea records focus mainly on the reconstruction of the seasonality changes (temperatures and precipitation), a crucial parameter in the Mediterranean region. This study is based on a multi-method approach comprising 3 methods: the Modern Analogues Technique (MAT), the recent Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method (NMDS/GAM) and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS). The climate signal inferred from this comparative approach confirms that cold and dry conditions prevailed in the Mediterranean region during the Heinrich event 1 and Younger Dryas periods, while temperate conditions prevailed during the Bølling/Allerød and the Holocene. Our records suggest a West/East gradient of decreasing precipitation across the Mediterranean region during the cooler Late-glacial and early Holocene periods, similar to present-day conditions. Winter precipitation was highest during warm intervals and lowest during cooling phases. Several short-lived cool intervals (i.e., Older Dryas, another oscillation after this one (GI-1c2), Gerzensee/Preboreal Oscillations, 8.2 ka event, Bond events) connected to the North Atlantic climate system are documented in the Alboran and Aegean Sea records indicating that the climate oscillations associated with the successive steps of the deglaciation in the North Atlantic area occurred in both the western and eastern Mediterranean regions. This observation confirms the presence of strong climatic linkages between the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions.
Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a western Mediterranean forest record
(2009)
Abrupt changes in Western Mediterranean climate during the last deglaciation (20 to 6 cal ka BP) are detected in marine core MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) through the investigation of high-resolution pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstructions by the modern analogue technique (MAT) for annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (MTCO and MTWA). Changes in temperate Mediterranean forest development and composition and MAT reconstructions indicate major climatic shifts with parallel temperature and precipitation changes at the onsets of Heinrich stadial 1 (equivalent to the Oldest Dryas), the Bölling-Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD). Multi-centennial-scale oscillations in forest development occurred throughout the BA, YD, and early Holocene. Shifts in vegetation composition and (Pann reconstructions indicate that forest declines occurred during dry, and generally cool, episodes centred at 14.0, 13.3, 12.9, 11.8, 10.7, 10.1, 9.2, 8.3 and 7.4 cal ka BP. The forest record also suggests multiple, low-amplitude Preboreal (PB) climate oscillations, and a marked increase in moisture availability for forest development at the end of the PB at 10.6 cal ka BP. Dry atmospheric conditions in the Western Mediterranean occurred in phase with Lateglacial events of high-latitude cooling including GI-1d (Older Dryas), GI-1b (Intra-Allerød Cold Period) and GS-1 (YD), and during Holocene events associated with high-latitude cooling, meltwater pulses and N. Atlantic ice-rafting. A possible climatic mechanism for the recurrence of dry intervals and an opposed regional precipitation pattern with respect to Western-central Europe relates to the dynamics of the westerlies and the prevalence of atmospheric blocking highs. Comparison of radiocarbon and ice-core ages for well-defined climatic transitions in the forest record suggests possible enhancement of marine reservoir ages in the Alboran Sea by 200 years (surface water age 600 years) during the Lateglacial.
This research was conducted in the Rwenzori Region of the Western Branch, East African Rift System (EARS). The EARS is a tectonic structure extending over a length of more than 3000 km from the Afar Triple Junction, in Ethiopia, to Lake Malawi in the south. The Western Rift System is a roughly NE to ENE trending sector of the EARS, which runs along the western boundary of Uganda and the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (D.R.C). It stretches 2100 km from Nimule, NW on Uganda-Sudan border, extending to Lake Malawi in the SE of Africa. The unusual uplift of the Rwenzori Mountains within an extensional regime and the mechanisms associated with the high frequency of seismic activity in the region was hardly understood and therefore, had remained a subject of contention that needed to be critically addressed in detail. To my knowledge, this was probably the first study to be performed and documented in great depth within the domains of seismic noise variation, seismic anisotropy and b value analyses beneath the Rwenzori Region. After about six years of operation (2006-2012), the seismology group of the RIFTLINK Research Project (www.riftlink.org) acquired a vast amount of high-quality, digital data that were collected using a seismic network of well calibrated seismic equipment. The project was divided into two phases. Phase I, that operated between February 2006 - September 2007, consisted of thirty-two temporary seismic stations, which were selectively spread out in the Rwenzori Region on the Ugandan side, to detect and record extremely weak as well as strong naturally occurring earthquakes. The seismic equipment used included EDL and REFTEK digitizers, which were coupled with Güralp and MARK sensors respectively (REFTEKS: only short-period MARK sensors, EDLs: short-period MARK plus few broadband Güralp Sensors). Exactly 22375 earthquakes were recorded. The data were processed using the SEISAN software package. About 14413 earthquakes were carefully localized using the velocity model of Bram (1975) that implements a Vp=Vs ratio fixed at 1.74. Phase II, that extended between 2009-2012 consisted of thirty-two seismic stations, which were spread out around the Rwenzori Mountains, both on the Ugandan side and the neighboring D.R.C. Only Taurus digitizers that were coupled with Trillium sensors were used in the D.R.C. On the Ugandan side however, both EDL and Taurus digitizers, which were coupled with Trillium and Güralp sensors were used. ...
Projections of future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed. Projections of change from the baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from a number of different ecosystems and hydrological models were studied. The differences between projections from the two types of model were looked at globally and regionally. Typically, across different regions the ecosystem models tended to project larger increases and smaller decreases in runoff than the hydrological models. However, the differences varied both regionally and seasonally. Sensitivity experiments were also used to investigate the contributions of varying CO2 and allowing vegetation distribution to evolve on projected changes in runoff. In two out of four models which had data available from CO2 sensitivity experiments, allowing CO2 to vary was found to increase runoff more than keeping CO2 constant, while in two models runoff decreased. This suggests more uncertainty in runoff responses to elevated CO2 than previously considered. As CO2 effects on evapotranspiration via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index are more commonly included in ecosystems models than in hydrological models, this may partially explain some of the difference between model types. Keeping the vegetation distribution static in JULES runs had much less effect on runoff projections than varying CO2, but this may be more pronounced if looked at over a longer timescale as vegetation changes may take longer to reach a new state.