550 Geowissenschaften
Refine
Year of publication
- 2021 (85) (remove)
Document Type
- Article (85) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- yes (85)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (85)
Keywords
- Baltic age spectra (2)
- COSMO-CLM (2)
- Detrital zircons (2)
- Eocene (2)
- Holy Cross Mountains (2)
- Mid-German Crystalline Zone (2)
- Odenwald (2)
- U–Pb ages (2)
- Variscides (2)
- 18S rRNA gene (1)
Institute
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling (CLM) Community has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight Global Climate Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44◦(∼50 km), 0.22◦ (∼25 km) and 0.11◦ (∼12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modelling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM-RCM modelling chain.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
In the Central German Uplands, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies have been particularly affected by climate change. With the establishment of beech forests about 3000 years ago and pure spruce stands 500 years ago, they might be regarded as ‘neophytes’ in the Hessian forests. Palaeoecological investigations at wetland sites in the low mountain ranges and intramontane basins point to an asynchronous vegetation evolution in a comparatively small but heterogenous region. On the other hand, palynological data prove that sustainably managed woodlands with high proportions of Tilia have been persisting for several millennia, before the spread of beech took place as a result of a cooler and wetter climate and changes in land management. In view of increasingly warmer and drier conditions, Tilia cordata appears especially qualified to be an important silvicultural constituent of the future, not only due to its tolerance towards drought, but also its resistance to browsing, and the ability to reproduce vegetatively. Forest managers should be encouraged to actively promote the return to more stress-tolerant lime-dominated woodlands, similar to those that existed in the Subboreal chronozone.
The evolution and interrelationships of carnivorous squamates (mosasaurs, snakes, monitor lizards, Gila Monsters) are a contentious part of reptile systematics and go to the heart of conflict between morphological and molecular data in inferring evolutionary history. One of the best-preserved fossils in this motley grouping is “Saniwa” feisti Stritzke, 1983, represented by complete skeletons from the early-middle Eocene of Messel, Germany. We re-describe it on the basis of superficial examination, stereoradiography, and high-resolution X-ray computed tomography of new and published specimens. The scalation of the lizard is unique, consisting of small, keeled scales on the head (including a row of enlarged medial supraorbitals) and large, rhomboidal, keeled scales (invested by osteoderms) that covered the rest of the body. Two paired longitudinal rows of enlarged scales ran down the neck. The head was laterally compressed and box-shaped due to the presence of a strong canthal-temporal ridge; the limbs and tail were very long. Notable osteological features include: a toothed, strap-like vomer; septomaxilla with a long posterior process; palpebral with a long posterolateral process; a lacrimal boss and a single lacrimal foramen; a well-developed cultriform process of the parabasisphenoid; two hypoglossal (XII) foramina in addition to the vagus; a lack of resorption pits for replacement teeth; and possibly the presence of more than one wave of developing replacement teeth per locus. There are no osteological modifications suggestive of an intramandibular hinge, but postmortem displacement of the angular-prearticular-surangular complex in multiple specimens suggests that there might have been some degree of mobility in the lower jaw based on soft-tissue modifications. Using phylogenetic analyses on a data-set comprising 473 morphological characters and 46 DNA loci, we infer that a monophyletic Palaeovaranidae Georgalis, 2017, including Eosaniwa Haubold, 1977, lies on the stem of Varanidae Merrem, 1820, basal to various Cretaceous Mongolian taxa. We transfer feisti to the new genus Paranecrosaurus n. gen. Analysis of gut contents reveals only the second known specimen of the cryptozoic lizard Cryptolacerta hassiaca Müller, Hipsley, Head, Kardjilov, Hilger, Wuttke & Reisz, 2011, confirming a diet that was at least partly carnivorous; the preservation of the teeth of C. hassiaca suggests that the gastric physiology of Paranecrosaurus feisti (Stritzke, 1983) n. comb. had high acidity but low enzyme activity. Based on the foregoing and linear discriminant function analysis, we reconstruct P. feisti n. comb., as a powerful, widely roaming, faunivorous-carnivorous stem monitor lizard with a sensitive snout. If the molecular phylogeny of anguimorphs is correct, then many of the features shared by Helodermatidae Gray, 1837 and Varanidae must have arisen convergently, partly associated with diet. In that case, a reconciliation of morphological and molecular data would require the discovery of equally primitive fossils on the helodermatid stem.
We combined biostratigraphical analyses, archaeological surveys, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models to provide new insights into the relative sea-level evolution in the northeastern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this area, characterized by a very complex tectonic pattern, we produced a new typology of sea-level index point, based on the foraminiferal associations found in transgressive marine facies. Our results agree with the sea-level history previously produced in this region, therefore confirming the validity of this new type of index point. The expanded dataset presented in this paper further demonstrates a continuous Holocene RSL rise in this portion of the Aegean Sea. Comparing the new RSL record with the available geophysical predictions of sea-level evolution indicates that the crustal subsidence of the Samothraki Plateau and the North Aegean Trough played a major role in controlling millennial-scale sea-level evolution in the area. This major subsidence rate needs to be taken into account in the preparation of local future scenarios of sea-level rise in the coming decades.
Acesta excavata (Fabricius, 1779) is a slow growing bivalve from the Limidae family and is often found associated with cold-water coral reefs along the European continental margin. Here we present the compositional variability of frequently used proxy elemental ratios (Mg/ Ca, Sr/Ca, Na/Ca) measured by laser-ablation mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and com- pare it to in-situ recorded instrumental seawater parameters such as temperature and salin- ity. Shell Mg/Ca measured in the fibrous calcitic shell section was overall not correlated with seawater temperature or salinity; however, some samples show significant correlations with temperature with a sensitivity that was found to be unusually high in comparison to other marine organisms. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca measured in the fibrous calcitic shell section display significant negative correlations with the linear extension rate of the shell, which indicates strong vital effects in these bivalves. Multiple linear regression analysis indicates that up to 79% of elemental variability is explicable with temperature and salinity as independent pre- dictor values. Yet, the overall results clearly show that the application of Element/Ca (E/Ca) ratios in these bivalves to reconstruct past changes in temperature and salinity is likely to be complicated due to strong vital effects and the effects of organic material embedded in the shell. Therefore, we suggest to apply additional techniques, such as clumped isotopes, in order to exactly determine and quantify the underlying vital effects and possibly account for these. We found differences in the chemical composition between the two calcitic shell lay- ers that are possibly explainable through differences of the crystal morphology. Sr/Ca ratios also appear to be partly controlled by the amount of magnesium, because the small magne- sium ions bend the crystal lattice which increases the space for strontium incorporation. Oxi- dative cleaning with H2O2 did not significantly change the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca composition of the shell. Na/Ca ratios decreased after the oxidative cleaning, which is most likely a leaching effect and not caused by the removal of organic matter.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifera that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Desmophyllum pertusum (formerly known as Lophelia pertusa). Here, we present measurements of the trace element and isotopic composition of these parasitic foraminifera, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (gas-source MS and inductively-coupled-plasma MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr / Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol−1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest D. pertusum, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilized in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of D. pertusum has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata. Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on D. pertusum, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host's carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn / Ca ratios in foraminifera that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifera, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifera is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr / Ca, Mn / Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifer that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. Here, we present measurements of the elemental and isotopic composition of this parasitic foraminifer for the first time, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe micro analysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr/Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol-1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest L. pertusa, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilised in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of L. pertusa has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata.Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on20 L. pertusa, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host’s carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn/Ca ratios in foraminifers that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifer, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifer is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr/Ca, Mn/Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) with four temporal scales of interest, we evaluated changes in the drought frequency using multi-model and multi-scenario simulations to identify areas where the definition issue could result in pronounced uncertainties and to what extent. We investigated the disagreement in the signs of changes between drought definitions and decomposed the variance into four main factors: drought definitions, greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, global climate models, and global water models, as well as their interactions. The results show that models were the primary sources of variance over 82% of the global land area. On the other hand, the drought definition was the dominant source of variance in the remaining 17%, especially in parts of northern high-latitudes. Our results highlight specific regions where differences in drought definitions result in a large spread among projections, including areas showing opposite signs of significant changes. At a global scale, 7% of the variance resulted independently from the definition issue, and that value increased to 44% when 1st and 2nd order interactions were considered. The quantitative results suggest that by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest, one could avoid these uncertainties in drought assessments to obtain a clearer picture of future drought change.
Constraining the architecture of complex 3D volcanic plumbing systems within active rifts, and their impact on rift processes, is critical for examining the interplay between faulting, magmatism and magmatic fluids in developing rift segments. The Natron basin of the East African Rift System provides an ideal location to study these processes, owing to its recent magmatic-tectonic activity and ongoing active carbonatite volcanism at Oldoinyo Lengai. Here, we report seismicity and fault plane solutions from a 10-month temporary seismic network spanning Oldoinyo Lengai, Naibor Soito volcanic field and Gelai volcano. We locate 6827 earthquakes with ML -0.85 to 3.6, which are related to previous and ongoing magmatic and volcanic activity in the region, as well as regional tectonic extension. We observe seismicity down to ~17 km depth north and south of Oldoinyo Lengai and shallow seismicity (3 - 10 km) beneath Gelai, including two swarms. The deepest seismicity (~down to 20 km) occurs above a previously imaged magma body below Naibor Soito. These seismicity patterns reveal a detailed image of a complex volcanic plumbing system, supporting potential lateral and vertical connections between shallow- and deep-seated magmas, where fluid and melt transport to the surface is facilitated by intrusion of dikes and sills. Focal mechanisms vary spatially. T-axis trends reveal dominantly WNW-ESE extension near Gelai, while strike-slip mechanisms and a radial trend in P-axes are observed in the vicinity of Oldoinyo Lengai. These data support local variations in the state of stress, resulting from a combination of volcanic edifice loading and magma-driven stress changes imposed on a regional extensional stress field. Our results indicate that the southern Natron basin is a segmented rift system, in which fluids preferentially percolate vertically and laterally in a region where strain transfers from a border fault to a developing magmatic rift segment.
Extreme convective precipitation is expected to increase with global warming. However, the rate of increase and the understanding of contributing processes remain highly uncertain. We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells like area, intensity, and lifetime as simulated by a convection-permitting climate model in the area of Germany under historical (1976–2005) and future (end-of-century, RCP8.5 scenario) conditions. To this end, a tracking algorithm was applied to 5-min precipitation output. While the number of convective cells is virtually similar under historical and future conditions, there are more intense and larger cells in the future. This yields an increase in hourly precipitation extremes, although mean precipitation decreases. The relative change in the frequency distributions of area, intensity, and precipitation sum per cell is highest for the most extreme percentiles, suggesting that extreme events intensify the most. Furthermore, we investigated the temperature and moisture scaling of cell characteristics. The temperature scaling drops off at high temperatures, with a shift in drop-off towards higher temperatures in the future, allowing for higher peak values. In contrast, dew point temperature scaling shows consistent rates across the whole dew point range. Cell characteristics scale at varying rates, either below (mean intensity), at about (maximum intensity and area), or above (precipitation sum) the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Thus, the widely investigated extreme precipitation scaling at fixed locations is a complex product of the scaling of different cell characteristics. The dew point scaling rates and absolute values of the scaling curves in historical and future conditions are closest for the highest percentiles. Therefore, near-surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity and total precipitation of individual convective cells. However, the frequency distribution of the number of cells depending on dew point temperature changes in the future, preventing statistical inference of extreme precipitation from near-surface humidity.
Drought is understood as both a lack of water (i.e., a deficit compared to demand) and a temporal anomaly in one or more components of the hydrological cycle. Most drought indices, however, only consider the anomaly aspect, i.e., how unusual the condition is. In this paper, we present two drought hazard indices that reflect both the deficit and anomaly aspects. The soil moisture deficit anomaly index, SMDAI, is based on the drought severity index, DSI (Cammalleri et al., 2016), but is computed in a more straightforward way that does not require the definition of a mapping function. We propose a new indicator of drought hazard for water supply from rivers, the streamflow deficit anomaly index, QDAI, which takes into account the surface water demand of humans and freshwater biota. Both indices are computed and analyzed at the global scale, with a spatial resolution of roughly 50 km, for the period 1981–2010, using monthly time series of variables computed by the global water resources and the model WaterGAP 2.2d. We found that the SMDAI and QDAI values are broadly similar to values of purely anomaly-based indices. However, the deficit anomaly indices provide more differentiated spatial and temporal patterns that help to distinguish the degree and nature of the actual drought hazard to vegetation health or the water supply. QDAI can be made relevant for stakeholders with different perceptions about the importance of ecosystem protection, by adapting the approach for computing the amount of water that is required to remain in the river for the well-being of the river ecosystem. Both deficit anomaly indices are well suited for inclusion in local or global drought risk studies.
This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of stratospheric mean age of air, including the full age spectrum, with the Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), driven by reanalysis winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-based results are compared to results based on the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a significantly slower BDC for ERA5 than for ERA-Interim, manifesting in weaker diabatic heating rates and higher age of air. In the tropical lower stratosphere, heating rates are 30 %–40 % weaker in ERA5, likely correcting a bias in ERA-Interim. At 20 km and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere, ERA5 age values are around the upper margin of the uncertainty range from historical tracer observations, indicating a somewhat slow–biased BDC. The age trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, as climate models predict in response to global warming. However, the age decrease is not linear but steplike, potentially caused by multi-annual variability or changes in the observations included in the assimilation. During the 2002–2012 period, the ERA5 age shows a similar hemispheric dipole trend pattern as ERA-Interim, with age increasing in the NH and decreasing in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Shifts in the age spectrum peak and residual circulation transit times indicate that reanalysis differences in age are likely caused by differences in the residual circulation. In particular, the shallow BDC branch accelerates in both reanalyses, whereas the deep branch accelerates in ERA5 and decelerates in ERA-Interim.
Role of the tropical atlantic for the interhemispheric heat transport during the last deglaciation
(2021)
Abstract
During the last deglaciation abrupt millennial-scale perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation massively altered the interhemispheric heat distribution affecting, for example, continental ice volume and hydroclimate. If and how the related cross-equatorial heat transport was controlled by the interplay between the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC) and northward-flowing North Brazil Current (NBC) remains controversial. To assess the role of tropical heat transport during the last deglaciation, we obtained a high-resolution foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) record from the BC domain at 21.5°S. The data reveal a yet undocumented warming of at least 4.6°C of the BC during Heinrich Stadial 1 at ∼16 ka indicating massive oceanic heat accumulation in the tropical South Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strongly diminished NBC prevented the release of this excess heat into the northern tropics. The observed magnitude of heat accumulation substantially exceeds numerical model simulations, stressing the need to further scrutinize atmospheric and oceanic heat transport during extreme climatic events.
Plain Language Summary
The Atlantic overturning circulation underwent abrupt millennial-scale perturbations. Such phases of sluggish oceanic circulation resulted in a substantial reduction of northward heat transport. As a consequence, substantial cooling occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere with severe effects on tropical precipitation. The distribution of heat within the western tropical Atlantic is accomplished by the southward-flowing BC and the northward-flowing NBC. By reconstructing SSTs for the interval between 20,000 and 10,000 yr before present, we assess the role of both currents in the interhemispheric heat transport during weak Atlantic overturning. We found that a sluggish overturning circulation resulted in anomalous southward heat transport by the BC in concert with a weak NBC, which lead to a yet undocumented warming of at least 4.6°C in the western tropical South Atlantic. This warming significantly exceeds reconstructions based on numerical simulations. This points to the need to further improve our understanding of changes in the cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric heat transport in response to rapid changes in ocean circulation, in particular as a significant weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation is predicted in the wake of anthropogenic climate change.
A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The Global South is facing severe challenges in ensuring livelihood security due to climate change impacts, environmental degradation and population growth as well as changing lifestyles. These complex problems cannot be solely solved by single scientific disciplines – they require transdisciplinary research (TDR). Stakeholders from civil society, the corporate sector, government and science need to pool their knowledge to find solutions for sustainable transformations. In Namibia, we have been involved in TDR projects on water supply, and sanitation services as well as livestock management in rangeland systems. In this paper, we review two TDR projects that differ in multiple ways and hence allow us to carve out structural differences and critically discuss research outcomes, lessons learned and the challenge of North–South collaborations. Our review builds upon published and unpublished project documents as well as expert interviews with Namibian and German researchers who were involved in the projects. Our results show that TDR can be put into practice in different ways, depending on the research focus and the period available. The TDR phases of problem framing, inter- and transdisciplinary integration were implemented with different tools and foci points. We discuss the role of project length and funding conditions for project success and outcome generation. In addition, we critically consider the role of Namibian and German researchers in these international collaborations. The conclusions we draw touch upon the points of preparatory research funding, the equal acknowledgement of Global South contributions to joint research projects and the explicit handling of TDR components in project work. Significance: • The current social-ecological challenges are complex and require TDR as a mode of knowledge coproduction, particularly in a development context. • Inter- and transdisciplinary integration are critical processes for a project to be successful and require the allocation of adequate time and monetary resources. • Longer-term projects with a funded preparatory research phase constitute a structural model for TDR as project outcomes can evolve over time. • Global South researchers carry a hidden burden in international collaborations that has to be adequately acknowledged upfront in project planning and final products.
Ob wir bei der Erwärmung eher in Richtung plus 2 Grad oder eher in Richtung plus 5 Grad steuern, entscheidet sich zu einem nicht unbedeutenden Teil über den Meeren. Dort beschatten niedrige, flache, sehr großflächige Wolkenschichten die darunterliegende Wasseroberfläche und sorgen so für Abkühlung. Auch in Zukunft noch?