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Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities
(2021)
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.
Based on recent perturbative and non-perturbative lattice calculations with almost quark flavors and the thermal contributions from photons, neutrinos, leptons, electroweak particles, and scalar Higgs bosons, various thermodynamic quantities, at vanishing net-baryon densities, such as pressure, energy density, bulk viscosity, relaxation time, and temperature have been calculated up to the TeV-scale, i.e., covering hadron, QGP, and electroweak (EW) phases in the early Universe. This remarkable progress motivated the present study to determine the possible influence of the bulk viscosity in the early Universe and to understand how this would vary from epoch to epoch. We have taken into consideration first- (Eckart) and second-order (Israel–Stewart) theories for the relativistic cosmic fluid and integrated viscous equations of state in Friedmann equations. Nonlinear nonhomogeneous differential equations are obtained as analytical solutions. For Israel–Stewart, the differential equations are very sophisticated to be solved. They are outlined here as road-maps for future studies. For Eckart theory, the only possible solution is the functionality, H(a(t)), where H(t) is the Hubble parameter and a(t) is the scale factor, but none of them so far could to be directly expressed in terms of either proper or cosmic time t. For Eckart-type viscous background, especially at finite cosmological constant, non-singular H(t) and a(t) are obtained, where H(t) diverges for QCD/EW and asymptotic EoS. For non-viscous background, the dependence of H(a(t)) is monotonic. The same conclusion can be drawn for an ideal EoS. We also conclude that the rate of decreasing H(a(t)) with increasing a(t) varies from epoch to epoch, at vanishing and finite cosmological constant. These results obviously help in improving our understanding of the nucleosynthesis and the cosmological large-scale structure.
Recurrent cortical networks provide reservoirs of states that are thought to play a crucial role for sequential information processing in the brain. However, classical reservoir computing requires manual adjustments of global network parameters, particularly of the spectral radius of the recurrent synaptic weight matrix. It is hence not clear if the spectral radius is accessible to biological neural networks. Using random matrix theory, we show that the spectral radius is related to local properties of the neuronal dynamics whenever the overall dynamical state is only weakly correlated. This result allows us to introduce two local homeostatic synaptic scaling mechanisms, termed flow control and variance control, that implicitly drive the spectral radius toward the desired value. For both mechanisms the spectral radius is autonomously adapted while the network receives and processes inputs under working conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the two adaptation mechanisms under different external input protocols. Moreover, we evaluated the network performance after adaptation by training the network to perform a time-delayed XOR operation on binary sequences. As our main result, we found that flow control reliably regulates the spectral radius for different types of input statistics. Precise tuning is however negatively affected when interneural correlations are substantial. Furthermore, we found a consistent task performance over a wide range of input strengths/variances. Variance control did however not yield the desired spectral radii with the same precision, being less consistent across different input strengths. Given the effectiveness and remarkably simple mathematical form of flow control, we conclude that self-consistent local control of the spectral radius via an implicit adaptation scheme is an interesting and biological plausible alternative to conventional methods using set point homeostatic feedback controls of neural firing.
In this talk we presented a novel technique, based on Deep Learning, to determine the impact parameter of nuclear collisions at the CBM experiment. PointNet based Deep Learning models are trained on UrQMD followed by CBMRoot simulations of Au+Au collisions at 10 AGeV to reconstruct the impact parameter of collisions from raw experimental data such as hits of the particles in the detector planes, tracks reconstructed from the hits or their combinations. The PointNet models can perform fast, accurate, event-by-event impact parameter determination in heavy ion collision experiments. They are shown to outperform a simple model which maps the track multiplicity to the impact parameter. While conventional methods for centrality classification merely provide an expected impact parameter distribution for a given centrality class, the PointNet models predict the impact parameter from 2–14 fm on an event-by-event basis with a mean error of −0.33 to 0.22 fm.
Scanning Hall probe microscopy is attractive for minimally invasive characterization of magnetic thin films and nanostructures by measurement of the emanating magnetic stray field. Established sensor probes operating at room temperature employ highly miniaturized spin-valve elements or semimetals, such as Bi. As the sensor layer structures are fabricated by patterning of planar thin films, their adaption to custom-made sensor probe geometries is highly challenging or impossible. Here we show how nanogranular ferromagnetic Hall devices fabricated by the direct-write method of focused electron beam induced deposition (FEBID) can be tailor-made for any given probe geometry. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the magnetic stray field sensitivity can be optimized in situ directly after direct-write nanofabrication of the sensor element. First proof-of-principle results on the use of this novel scanning Hall sensor are shown.
Human societies are characterized by three constituent features, besides others. (A) Options, as for jobs and societal positions, differ with respect to their associated monetary and non-monetary payoffs. (B) Competition leads to reduced payoffs when individuals compete for the same option as others. (C) People care about how they are doing relatively to others. The latter trait –the propensity to compare one’s own success with that of others– expresses itself as envy. It is shown that the combination of (A)–(C) leads to spontaneous class stratification. Societies of agents split endogenously into two social classes, an upper and a lower class, when envy becomes relevant. A comprehensive analysis of the Nash equilibria characterizing a basic reference game is presented. Class separation is due to the condensation of the strategies of lower-class agents, which play an identical mixed strategy. Upper-class agents do not condense, following individualist pure strategies. The model and results are size-consistent, holding for arbitrary large numbers of agents and options. Analytic results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. An analogy to interacting confined classical particles is discussed.
We present the application of an evolutionary genetic algorithm for the in situ optimization of nanostructures that are prepared by focused electron-beam-induced deposition (FEBID). It allows us to tune the properties of the deposits towards the highest conductivity by using the time gradient of the measured in situ rate of change of conductance as the fitness parameter for the algorithm. The effectiveness of the procedure is presented for the precursor W(CO)6 as well as for post-treatment of Pt–C deposits, which were obtained by the dissociation of MeCpPt(Me)3. For W(CO)6-based structures an increase of conductivity by one order of magnitude can be achieved, whereas the effect for MeCpPt(Me)3 is largely suppressed. The presented technique can be applied to all beam-induced deposition processes and has great potential for a further optimization or tuning of parameters for nanostructures that are prepared by FEBID or related techniques.
Controlling magnetic properties on the nanometer-scale is essential for basic research in micro-magnetism and spin-dependent transport, as well as for various applications such as magnetic recording, imaging and sensing. This has been accomplished to a very high degree by means of layered heterostructures in the vertical dimension. Here we present a complementary approach that allows for a controlled tuning of the magnetic properties of Co/Pt heterostructures on the lateral mesoscale. By means of in situ post-processing of Pt- and Co-based nano-stripes prepared by focused electron beam induced deposition (FEBID) we are able to locally tune their coercive field and remanent magnetization. Whereas single Co-FEBID nano-stripes show no hysteresis, we find hard-magnetic behavior for post-processed Co/Pt nano-stripes with coercive fields up to 850 Oe. We attribute the observed effects to the locally controlled formation of the CoPt L10 phase, whose presence has been revealed by transmission electron microscopy.
In this paper we present first-order reversal curve (FORC) diagrams of ensembles of three-dimensional Co3Fe nanostructures as 2 × 2 arrays of nano-cubes and nano-trees. The structures are fabricated and investigated by an advanced platform of focused electron beam induced deposition combined with high-resolution detection of magnetic stray fields using a home-built micro-Hall magnetometer based on an AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructure. The experimental FORC diagrams are compared to macrospin simulations for both geometries at different angles of the externally applied magnetic field. The measured FORC diagrams are in good agreement with the simulated ones and reflect non-uniform magnetization reversal dominated by multi-vortex states within, and strong magnetic coupling between, the building blocks of our nanostructures. Thus, a FORC analysis of small arrays of 3D magnetic nanostructures provides more detailed insights into the mechanisms of magnetization reversal beyond standard major hysteresis loop measurements.