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Ziel: Die Vegetation der mitteleuropäischen Buchenwälder hat sich in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten deutlich verändert. Über die Änderungen in den wärmeliebenden Seggen-Hangbuchenwäldern (Carici-Fagetum) unter dem Einfluss des Nutzungs- und Klimawandels, der Eutrophierung und des Schalenwild-Einflusses ist aber bisher wenig bekannt. Wir verglichen Vegetationsaufnahmen des Carici-Fagetum aus den 1950er Jahren mit aktuellen und fragten: (1) Wie haben sich Struktur, Diversität und Artenzusammensetzung verändert? (2) Was sind die treibenden Faktoren dieser Veränderungen? (3) Welche Rückschlüsse ergeben sich für die zukünftige Entwicklung und Behandlung dieser Wälder?
Untersuchungsgebiet: Göttinger Wald (Süd-Niedersachsen, Deutschland, Mitteleuropa)
Methoden: Die Vegetation von 78 Quasi-Dauerflächen in vier Subassoziationen des Carici-Fagetum wurde im Zeitraum 1955 bis 1960 und 2011 bis 2012 aufgenommen. Unterschiede in der Vegetationsstruktur, der Diversität und Artenzusammensetzung sowie hinsichtlich verschiedener forstlicher und standortökologischer Parameter und ökologischer Artengruppen zwischen beiden Aufnahmeterminen wurden mit Hilfe von Ordinations- und Permutations-Verfahren sowie paarweiser Vergleiche analysiert und statistisch geprüft.
Ergebnisse: Strukturell hat vor allem die Strauchschicht stark zugenommen, insbesondere bedingt durch eine Intensivierung der Rehwild-Bejagung. In der Bodenvegetation haben die typischen Arten des Carici-Fagetum stark abgenommen, darunter auch viele Rote-Liste-Arten. Zugenommen haben dagegen neben den Gehölzen die weit verbreiteten Arten der mesophilen Buchenwälder. Dies zeigt sich auch in den Veränderungen der Zeigerwerte nach Ellenberg. Dem Rückgang von lichtliebenden, trockenheitsertragenden Magerkeitszeigern steht eine Zunahme von schattentoleranten, mesophilen und an eine bessere Nährstoffversorgung gebundenen Arten der geschlossenen Buchenwälder gegenüber, was zu einer zunehmenden Homogenisierung der Vegetation führt. Ursachen für diese Veränderungen sind das geänderte Bestandesklima durch eine dichter schließende Strauchschicht und atmosphärische Stickstoffeinträge, wobei letzteres wohl vor allem das Wachstum der Buche förderte. Eine deutliche Zunahme des immergrünen, ozeanisch verbreiteten Efeu (Hedera helix), der sehr empfindlich auf tiefe Temperaturen im Winter reagiert, gleichzeitig aber bei erhöhtem CO2-Angebot seine Wuchsleistung über proportional erhöht, kann als Reaktion auf den Klimawandel der letzten 50 Jahre gewertet werden. Positiv hat sich auch eine Reduktion des Rehwild-Verbisses auf diese und andere Arten – z. B. Lilium martagon als einzige Rote-Liste-Art mit einer positiven Deckungsgradentwicklung – ausgewirkt.
Schlussfolgerungen: Die wärmeliebenden Seggen-Hangbuchenwälder haben in den letzten 50 Jahren charakteristische und wertvolle floristische Elemente – häufig Relikte der früheren Mittelwaldnutzung in Verbindung mit Waldweide – verloren. Mit der Einstellung der forstlichen Nutzung, z. T. bedingt durch Naturschutzmaßnahmen, der Reduktion des Schalenwildverbisses und den atmosphärischen Nährstoffeinträgen zeigt das Carici-Fagetum im Göttinger Wald heute eine Sukzession zum mesophilen Wald, wie sie für viele thermophile Laubwälder in Mitteleuropa nach Jahrhunderten der Auflichtung und Aushagerung typisch geworden ist.
Aim: Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used.
Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica.
Taxon: Amphibians, birds and mammals.
Methods: We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning.
Results: Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type.
Main conclusions: Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.
Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model has two parameters: the parameter λ describing the adjustment of the leaf water potential to changes in soil water potential, and the parameter Δψww describing the typical ‘well-watered’ leaf water potentials at non-stressed (near-zero) levels of soil water potential. Our model was tested and calibrated on 110 time-series datasets containing the leaf- and soil water potentials of 66 species under drought and non-drought conditions. Our model successfully reproduces the measured leaf water potentials over time based on three different regulation strategies under drought. We found that three parameter sets derived from the measurement data reproduced the dynamics of 53% of an drought dataset, and 52% of a control dataset [root mean square error (RMSE) < 0.5 MPa)]. We conclude that, instead of quantifying water-potential-regulation of different plant species by complex modeling approaches, a small set of parameters may be sufficient to describe the water potential regulation behavior for large-scale modeling. Thus, our approach paves the way for a parsimonious representation of the full spectrum of plant hydraulic responses to drought in dynamic vegetation models.
Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man‐made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low‐income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio‐economic challenges.
The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post‐2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low‐ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge.
Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.
Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence‐based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures.
The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632).
A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
This article elucidates the spatial order that underpins the politics of the Anthropocene – the ecological nomos of the earth – and criticizes its imperial origins and legacies. It provides a critical reading of Carl Schmitt’s spatial thought to not only illuminate the spatio-political ontology but also the violence and usurpations that characterize the Anthropocene condition. The article first shows how with the emergence of the ecological nomos seemingly ‘natural’ spaces like the biosphere and the atmosphere became politically charged. This challenges the modernist separation between natural facts and political norms. It then underlines the imperial origins of this nomos by introducing the concept of air-appropriation understood as the colonization of atmospheric space by CO2 emissions. Instead of assuming that the ecological nomos represents a transition from a colonial to an ecological and cosmopolitan world order, focusing on air-appropriation highlights forms of ecological imperialism that go along with the new nomos. Accordingly, the article calls for a just redistribution of ecospace that takes into account the imperial legacies and ongoing effects of air-appropriation.
Impacts of alien species on human health have recently become a major issue in medical research and invasion ecology, but comprehensive assessments of this subject are largely lacking. Here, we provide a literature review of alien species with public health impacts in Europe based on a systematic search in the Thomson Reuters Web of Science. We detected 77 relevant articles, of which 21 were reviews and 56 were original research articles. The taxonomic focus was on vascular plants (n=31 articles) and dipterans (n=25 articles). The original research articles mainly covered the spread of the study species, while early invasion stages (introduction, establishment) as well as impact and management were less investigated. Alien species of health concern in Europe are mostly introduced as contaminants, and mostly originate from climatically similar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In those cases (36% of all articles) when information on the trend in range and abundance was provided, this trend was mostly increasing. We detected little information on the severity of the impacts (two articles) and the interaction with climate change (three articles). In 15 original articles (28%) specific management measures were suggested, in only one article the socioeconomic costs were assessed. We conclude that European research on human health impacts of alien species is biased towards few species, and that several important aspects such as early invasion stages, severity of impact and its temporal trends, and the scale of the socioeconomic costs caused are poorly understood. Interdisciplinary projects bridging gaps between ecologists medical researchers, socioeconomists and public health authorities are required to link alien species to severity and trends of impacts, which is a crucial requisite for risk assessment and decision making.
Waldwachstumsmodelle sind ein ideales Werkzeug, um Auswirkungen veränderter Umweltbedingungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume aufzuzeigen. Ziel des Teilprojektes „Waldwachstumsreaktionen und Systemprozesse“ im Rahmen von ENFORCHANGE war, durch die Kombination von Wachstumsmodellen mit unterschiedlichen methodischen Ansätzen regionale Auswirkungen standörtlicher und klimatischer Veränderungen auf die Waldentwicklung zu analysieren und somit bessere Grundlagen für eine angepasste Forstbetriebsplanung zu schaffen. Anhand des physiologischen Wachstumsmodells BALANCE wurde der Einfluss der prognostizierten Klimaänderungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume abgeschätzt. Die für verschiedene Baumarten und regionaltypische Bestände gewonnenen Reaktionsmuster konnten anschließend in das managementorientierte Wachstumsmodell SILVA übertragen werden. Die Entwicklung repräsentativer Waldbestände wurde in SILVA für einen Zeitraum von 30 Jahren simuliert, wobei verschiedene Nutzungsszenarien untersucht wurden, um Handlungsspielräume und mögliche strategische Planungen für Forstbetriebe aufzuzeigen. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse für die praktische Betriebsplanung wurden am Beispiel des kommunalen Forstbetriebes Zittau dargestellt. Es wird deutlich, wie die Forstplanung von derartigen Szenarioanalysen profitieren kann. Die Simulationsrechnungen unter Annahme geänderter Klimaverhältnisse zeigen, dass die Bestände unter diesen Bedingungen ein verringertes Reaktionsvermögen auf waldbauliche Maßnahmen aufweisen, was insbesondere bei den Zuwächsen bemerkbar ist. Dabei haben Laubholzbestände, die bereits jetzt auf 27% der Betriebsfläche stocken, vermutlich eine Pufferwirkung und mildern die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderungen auf die Produktivität des Gesamtbetriebes ab.
With the significant disconnect between the collective aim of limiting warming to well below 2°C and the current means proposed to achieve such an aim, the goal of this paper is to offer a moral assessment of prominent alternatives to current international climate policy. To do so, we’ll outline five different policy routes that could potentially bring the means and goal in line. Those five policy routes are: (1) exceed 2°C; (2) limit warming to less than 2°C by economic de-growth; (3) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation only; (4) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation and widespread deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs); and (5) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation, NETs, and Solar Radiation Management as a fallback. In assessing these five policy routes, we rely primarily upon two moral considerations: the avoidance of catastrophic climate change and the right to sustainable development. We’ll conclude that we should continue to aim at the two-degree target, and that to get there we should use aggressive mitigation, pursue the deployment of NETs, and continue to research SRM.
The cladoceran Daphnia lumholtzi is a subtropical and tropical zooplankter, and an invasive species in North America. Thus far, D. lumholtzi has not been detected in Europe. Here we investigated whether a hypothetical introduction to Europe could result in a successful invasion, either now or in the near future when facilitated by climate change. In laboratory experiments, we tested whether different clones of D. lumholtzi can invade a resident community consisting of native Daphnia from lake Klostersee, Germany, and how invasion success depends on temperature and the presence or absence of planktivorous fish. In some treatments, invasion success was consistently high, and D. lumholtzi reached densities similar to the native competitors by the end of the experiment. The presence of a planktivorous fish reduced the invasion success of D. lumholtzi, and a clone with an inducible defense against fish predation was a more successful invader than a permanently defended clone. Of the three temperatures tested in this study (15, 20, and 24 °C), invasion success was highest at 20 °C. To understand the competitive interaction between native and introduced Daphnia, we fit a Lotka-Volterra-type competition model to the population dynamics. Our experimental and modeling results suggest that D. lumholtzi can invade European lakes and can cause substantial declines in the population size of native Daphnia, with potential consequences for higher trophic levels.