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Ziel: Die Vegetation der mitteleuropäischen Buchenwälder hat sich in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten deutlich verändert. Über die Änderungen in den wärmeliebenden Seggen-Hangbuchenwäldern (Carici-Fagetum) unter dem Einfluss des Nutzungs- und Klimawandels, der Eutrophierung und des Schalenwild-Einflusses ist aber bisher wenig bekannt. Wir verglichen Vegetationsaufnahmen des Carici-Fagetum aus den 1950er Jahren mit aktuellen und fragten: (1) Wie haben sich Struktur, Diversität und Artenzusammensetzung verändert? (2) Was sind die treibenden Faktoren dieser Veränderungen? (3) Welche Rückschlüsse ergeben sich für die zukünftige Entwicklung und Behandlung dieser Wälder?
Untersuchungsgebiet: Göttinger Wald (Süd-Niedersachsen, Deutschland, Mitteleuropa)
Methoden: Die Vegetation von 78 Quasi-Dauerflächen in vier Subassoziationen des Carici-Fagetum wurde im Zeitraum 1955 bis 1960 und 2011 bis 2012 aufgenommen. Unterschiede in der Vegetationsstruktur, der Diversität und Artenzusammensetzung sowie hinsichtlich verschiedener forstlicher und standortökologischer Parameter und ökologischer Artengruppen zwischen beiden Aufnahmeterminen wurden mit Hilfe von Ordinations- und Permutations-Verfahren sowie paarweiser Vergleiche analysiert und statistisch geprüft.
Ergebnisse: Strukturell hat vor allem die Strauchschicht stark zugenommen, insbesondere bedingt durch eine Intensivierung der Rehwild-Bejagung. In der Bodenvegetation haben die typischen Arten des Carici-Fagetum stark abgenommen, darunter auch viele Rote-Liste-Arten. Zugenommen haben dagegen neben den Gehölzen die weit verbreiteten Arten der mesophilen Buchenwälder. Dies zeigt sich auch in den Veränderungen der Zeigerwerte nach Ellenberg. Dem Rückgang von lichtliebenden, trockenheitsertragenden Magerkeitszeigern steht eine Zunahme von schattentoleranten, mesophilen und an eine bessere Nährstoffversorgung gebundenen Arten der geschlossenen Buchenwälder gegenüber, was zu einer zunehmenden Homogenisierung der Vegetation führt. Ursachen für diese Veränderungen sind das geänderte Bestandesklima durch eine dichter schließende Strauchschicht und atmosphärische Stickstoffeinträge, wobei letzteres wohl vor allem das Wachstum der Buche förderte. Eine deutliche Zunahme des immergrünen, ozeanisch verbreiteten Efeu (Hedera helix), der sehr empfindlich auf tiefe Temperaturen im Winter reagiert, gleichzeitig aber bei erhöhtem CO2-Angebot seine Wuchsleistung über proportional erhöht, kann als Reaktion auf den Klimawandel der letzten 50 Jahre gewertet werden. Positiv hat sich auch eine Reduktion des Rehwild-Verbisses auf diese und andere Arten – z. B. Lilium martagon als einzige Rote-Liste-Art mit einer positiven Deckungsgradentwicklung – ausgewirkt.
Schlussfolgerungen: Die wärmeliebenden Seggen-Hangbuchenwälder haben in den letzten 50 Jahren charakteristische und wertvolle floristische Elemente – häufig Relikte der früheren Mittelwaldnutzung in Verbindung mit Waldweide – verloren. Mit der Einstellung der forstlichen Nutzung, z. T. bedingt durch Naturschutzmaßnahmen, der Reduktion des Schalenwildverbisses und den atmosphärischen Nährstoffeinträgen zeigt das Carici-Fagetum im Göttinger Wald heute eine Sukzession zum mesophilen Wald, wie sie für viele thermophile Laubwälder in Mitteleuropa nach Jahrhunderten der Auflichtung und Aushagerung typisch geworden ist.
Aim: Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used.
Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica.
Taxon: Amphibians, birds and mammals.
Methods: We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning.
Results: Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type.
Main conclusions: Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.
Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model has two parameters: the parameter λ describing the adjustment of the leaf water potential to changes in soil water potential, and the parameter Δψww describing the typical ‘well-watered’ leaf water potentials at non-stressed (near-zero) levels of soil water potential. Our model was tested and calibrated on 110 time-series datasets containing the leaf- and soil water potentials of 66 species under drought and non-drought conditions. Our model successfully reproduces the measured leaf water potentials over time based on three different regulation strategies under drought. We found that three parameter sets derived from the measurement data reproduced the dynamics of 53% of an drought dataset, and 52% of a control dataset [root mean square error (RMSE) < 0.5 MPa)]. We conclude that, instead of quantifying water-potential-regulation of different plant species by complex modeling approaches, a small set of parameters may be sufficient to describe the water potential regulation behavior for large-scale modeling. Thus, our approach paves the way for a parsimonious representation of the full spectrum of plant hydraulic responses to drought in dynamic vegetation models.
Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man‐made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low‐income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio‐economic challenges.
The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post‐2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low‐ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge.
Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.
Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence‐based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures.
The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632).
A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
This article elucidates the spatial order that underpins the politics of the Anthropocene – the ecological nomos of the earth – and criticizes its imperial origins and legacies. It provides a critical reading of Carl Schmitt’s spatial thought to not only illuminate the spatio-political ontology but also the violence and usurpations that characterize the Anthropocene condition. The article first shows how with the emergence of the ecological nomos seemingly ‘natural’ spaces like the biosphere and the atmosphere became politically charged. This challenges the modernist separation between natural facts and political norms. It then underlines the imperial origins of this nomos by introducing the concept of air-appropriation understood as the colonization of atmospheric space by CO2 emissions. Instead of assuming that the ecological nomos represents a transition from a colonial to an ecological and cosmopolitan world order, focusing on air-appropriation highlights forms of ecological imperialism that go along with the new nomos. Accordingly, the article calls for a just redistribution of ecospace that takes into account the imperial legacies and ongoing effects of air-appropriation.
Impacts of alien species on human health have recently become a major issue in medical research and invasion ecology, but comprehensive assessments of this subject are largely lacking. Here, we provide a literature review of alien species with public health impacts in Europe based on a systematic search in the Thomson Reuters Web of Science. We detected 77 relevant articles, of which 21 were reviews and 56 were original research articles. The taxonomic focus was on vascular plants (n=31 articles) and dipterans (n=25 articles). The original research articles mainly covered the spread of the study species, while early invasion stages (introduction, establishment) as well as impact and management were less investigated. Alien species of health concern in Europe are mostly introduced as contaminants, and mostly originate from climatically similar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In those cases (36% of all articles) when information on the trend in range and abundance was provided, this trend was mostly increasing. We detected little information on the severity of the impacts (two articles) and the interaction with climate change (three articles). In 15 original articles (28%) specific management measures were suggested, in only one article the socioeconomic costs were assessed. We conclude that European research on human health impacts of alien species is biased towards few species, and that several important aspects such as early invasion stages, severity of impact and its temporal trends, and the scale of the socioeconomic costs caused are poorly understood. Interdisciplinary projects bridging gaps between ecologists medical researchers, socioeconomists and public health authorities are required to link alien species to severity and trends of impacts, which is a crucial requisite for risk assessment and decision making.
Waldwachstumsmodelle sind ein ideales Werkzeug, um Auswirkungen veränderter Umweltbedingungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume aufzuzeigen. Ziel des Teilprojektes „Waldwachstumsreaktionen und Systemprozesse“ im Rahmen von ENFORCHANGE war, durch die Kombination von Wachstumsmodellen mit unterschiedlichen methodischen Ansätzen regionale Auswirkungen standörtlicher und klimatischer Veränderungen auf die Waldentwicklung zu analysieren und somit bessere Grundlagen für eine angepasste Forstbetriebsplanung zu schaffen. Anhand des physiologischen Wachstumsmodells BALANCE wurde der Einfluss der prognostizierten Klimaänderungen auf das Wachstum der Bäume abgeschätzt. Die für verschiedene Baumarten und regionaltypische Bestände gewonnenen Reaktionsmuster konnten anschließend in das managementorientierte Wachstumsmodell SILVA übertragen werden. Die Entwicklung repräsentativer Waldbestände wurde in SILVA für einen Zeitraum von 30 Jahren simuliert, wobei verschiedene Nutzungsszenarien untersucht wurden, um Handlungsspielräume und mögliche strategische Planungen für Forstbetriebe aufzuzeigen. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse für die praktische Betriebsplanung wurden am Beispiel des kommunalen Forstbetriebes Zittau dargestellt. Es wird deutlich, wie die Forstplanung von derartigen Szenarioanalysen profitieren kann. Die Simulationsrechnungen unter Annahme geänderter Klimaverhältnisse zeigen, dass die Bestände unter diesen Bedingungen ein verringertes Reaktionsvermögen auf waldbauliche Maßnahmen aufweisen, was insbesondere bei den Zuwächsen bemerkbar ist. Dabei haben Laubholzbestände, die bereits jetzt auf 27% der Betriebsfläche stocken, vermutlich eine Pufferwirkung und mildern die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderungen auf die Produktivität des Gesamtbetriebes ab.
With the significant disconnect between the collective aim of limiting warming to well below 2°C and the current means proposed to achieve such an aim, the goal of this paper is to offer a moral assessment of prominent alternatives to current international climate policy. To do so, we’ll outline five different policy routes that could potentially bring the means and goal in line. Those five policy routes are: (1) exceed 2°C; (2) limit warming to less than 2°C by economic de-growth; (3) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation only; (4) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation and widespread deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs); and (5) limit warming to less than 2°C by traditional mitigation, NETs, and Solar Radiation Management as a fallback. In assessing these five policy routes, we rely primarily upon two moral considerations: the avoidance of catastrophic climate change and the right to sustainable development. We’ll conclude that we should continue to aim at the two-degree target, and that to get there we should use aggressive mitigation, pursue the deployment of NETs, and continue to research SRM.
The cladoceran Daphnia lumholtzi is a subtropical and tropical zooplankter, and an invasive species in North America. Thus far, D. lumholtzi has not been detected in Europe. Here we investigated whether a hypothetical introduction to Europe could result in a successful invasion, either now or in the near future when facilitated by climate change. In laboratory experiments, we tested whether different clones of D. lumholtzi can invade a resident community consisting of native Daphnia from lake Klostersee, Germany, and how invasion success depends on temperature and the presence or absence of planktivorous fish. In some treatments, invasion success was consistently high, and D. lumholtzi reached densities similar to the native competitors by the end of the experiment. The presence of a planktivorous fish reduced the invasion success of D. lumholtzi, and a clone with an inducible defense against fish predation was a more successful invader than a permanently defended clone. Of the three temperatures tested in this study (15, 20, and 24 °C), invasion success was highest at 20 °C. To understand the competitive interaction between native and introduced Daphnia, we fit a Lotka-Volterra-type competition model to the population dynamics. Our experimental and modeling results suggest that D. lumholtzi can invade European lakes and can cause substantial declines in the population size of native Daphnia, with potential consequences for higher trophic levels.
In the Westphalian Basin (North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany), 176 relevés of hedgerows first surveyed during the 1970s were reassessed in 2009 and 2010, and the floristic differences between these two time points were compared. The results were used to analyse the impact of exogenous factors on the species community composition using multivariate statistics (non-metric multidimensional scaling). Significant changes were found within all of the communities along the first axis of the ordination, and, in most cases, increasing average temperatures were best correlated with these alterations. However, based on the considerable evidence found, the alterations induced by land-use change and the intensification of agriculture appear to be the inducing factors.
t is becoming less and less controversial that we ought to aggressively combat climate change. One main reason for doing so is concern for future generations, as it is they who will be the most seriously affected by it. Surprisingly, none of the more prominent deontological theories of intergenerational justice can explain why it is wrong for the present generation to do very little to stop worsening the problem. This paper discusses three such theories, namely indirect reciprocity, common ownership of the earth and human rights. It shows that while indirect reciprocity and common ownership are both too undemanding, the human rights approach misunderstands the nature of our intergenerational relationships, thereby capturing either too much or too little about what is problematic about climate change. The paper finally proposes a way to think about intergenerational justice that avoids the pitfalls of the traditional theories and can explain what is wrong with perpetuating climate change.
However far we are from either in practice, basic global and intergenerational justice, including climate change mitigation, are taken to be theoretically compatible. If population grows as predicted, this could cease to be the case. This paper asks whether that tragic legacy can now be averted without hard or even tragic choices on population policy. Current generations must navigate between: a high-stakes gamble on undeveloped technology; violating human rights; demanding unbearable sacrifices of the already badly off; institutional unfairness across adults; institutional unfairness across children; failing to protect children’s basic interests; and threatening the autonomy of the family. We are not yet forced to choose between bequeathing a tragic choice and making one, by adopting basically unjust measures. However, even the remaining options present a morally hard choice. The fact we face it is yet another damning indictment on the combined actions and collective failures of the global elite.
Climatic niches describe the climatic conditions in which species can persist. Shifts in climatic niches have been observed to coincide with major climatic change, suggesting that species adapt to new conditions. We test the relationship between rates of climatic niche evolution and paleoclimatic conditions through time for 65 Old-World flycatcher species (Aves: Muscicapidae). We combine niche quantification for all species with dated phylogenies to infer past changes in the rates of niche evolution for temperature and precipitation niches. Paleoclimatic conditions were inferred independently using two datasets: a paleoelevation reconstruction and the mammal fossil record. We find changes in climatic niches through time, but no or weak support for a relationship between niche evolution rates and rates of paleoclimatic change for both temperature and precipitation niche and for both reconstruction methods. In contrast, the inferred relationship between climatic conditions and niche evolution rates depends on paleoclimatic reconstruction method: rates of temperature niche evolution are significantly negatively related to absolute temperatures inferred using the paleoelevation model but not those reconstructed from the fossil record. We suggest that paleoclimatic change might be a weak driver of climatic niche evolution in birds and highlight the need for greater integration of different paleoclimate reconstructions.
Der Nachweis von H.a. mit Pheromonfallen bleibt weiterhin problematisch, ist aber für die Terminierung eines Nützlingseinsatzes von grundlegender Bedeutung. Die Pheromone wirken nur im unmittelbaren Umfeld des Befalls, wie auch Untersuchungen in 2006 bestätigen. Eine Distanz von 0,5-1,0km kann bereits eine nicht ausreichende Monitoringwirkung bedeuten. Prinzipiell könnten mit Pheromonfallen lediglich bekannte Befallsfelder aus dem Vorjahr überwacht werden. Da der Schädling in diesem Falle jedoch zufliegt und nicht standortgebunden überwintert, kann er unter Umständen an ganz anderer Stelle auftreten. Ein weitererBaustein der neuen Beobachtungsstrategie ist daher, einen zentralen Befallsort südlich von Freiburg, der fast jährlich angeflogen wird, mit einem engen Netz (< 500m Abstand) an Pheromonfallen zu überwachen. Zudem werden Felder und Gewächshäuser, die in den letzten Jahren mit H.a. befallen waren, soweit sie gemeldet wurden und bekannt sind, weiter mit Pheromonfallen beobachtet. Da eine Überwinterung noch nicht nachgewiesen wurde, sollte die Überwachung im späten Frühjahr im Mai beginnen, mit einem Zuflug wird, je nach Witterungslage, in der Regel ab August zu rechnen sein.
Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non-neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.
Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.
1. Both direct and indirect competition can have profound effects on species abundance and expansion rates, especially for a species trying to strengthen a foothold in new areas, such as the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) currently in northernmost Finland. There, winter moths have overlapping outbreak ranges with autumnal moths (Epirrita autumnata), who also share the same host, the mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii). Competitive interactions are also possible, but so far unstudied, are explanations for the observed 1–3 years phase lag between the population cycles of the two moth species. 2. In two field experiments, we studied host plant-mediated indirect inter-specific competition and direct interference/exploitation competition between autumnal and winter moths. The experimental larvae were grown either with the competing species or with the same number of conspecifics until pupation. Inter-specific competition was judged from differences in pupal mass (reflecting lifespan fecundity), larval development time and larval survival. 3. Larval performance measurements suggested that neither direct nor indirect interspecific competition with the autumnal moth reduce the growth rate of winter moth populations. Winter moths even had a higher probability of survival when reared together with autumnal moths. 4. Thus, we conclude that neither direct nor indirect inter-specific competition is capable of suppressing the spread of the winter moth outbreak range and that both are also an unlikely cause for the phase lag between the phase-locked population cycles of the two moth species.
Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling
(2022)
Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases.
We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account.
On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor.
Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.
Groundwater recharge is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate, in a spatially resolved way, global-scale groundwater recharge. In this report, improved model estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge at the global-scale, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, are presented. They are based on calculations of the global hydrological model WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) which, for semi-arid and arid areas of the globe, was tuned against independent point estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge. This has led to a decrease of estimated groundwater recharge under semi-arid and arid conditions as compared to the model results before tuning, and the new estimates are more similar to country level data on groundwater recharge. Using the improved model, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge was simulated, applying two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as interpreted by two different climate models.
Within the framework of the Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP), initiated by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), we contributed to a comprehensive baseline assessment of transboundary aquifers (TBAs) by quantifying different groundwater indicators using the global water resources and water use model WaterGAP 2.2. All indicators were computed under current (2010) and projected conditions in 2030 and 2050 for 91 selected TBAs larger than 20,000 km2 and for each nation’s share of the TBAs (TBA-CU: country unit). TBA outlines were provided by the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC). The set of indicators comprises groundwater recharge, groundwater depletion, per-capita groundwater recharge, dependency on groundwater, population density, and groundwater development stress (groundwater withdrawals to groundwater recharge). Only the latter four indicators were projected to 2030 and 2050. Current-state indicators were quantified using the Watch Forcing Data climate dataset, while projections were based on five climate scenarios that were computed by five global climate models for the high-emissions scenario RCP 8.5. Water use projections were based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP2 developed within ISI-MIP. Furthermore, two scenarios of future irrigated areas were explored. For individual water use sectors, the fraction of groundwater abstraction was assumed to remain at the current level.
According to our assessment, aquifers with the highest current groundwater depletion rates worldwide are not transboundary. Exceptions are the Neogene Aquifer System (Syria) with 53 mm/yr between 2000 and 2009 and the Indus River Plain aquifer (India) with 28 mm/yr. For current conditions, we identified 20 out of 258 TBA-CUs suffering from medium to very high groundwater development stress, which are located in the Middle East and North Africa region, in South Asia, China, and the USA. Considering projections, ensemble means of per-cent changes or percent point changes to current conditions were determined. Per-capita groundwater recharge is projected to decrease in 80-90% of all TBA-CUs until 2030/2050. Due to the strongly varying projections of the global climate models, we applied a worst-case scenario approach to define future hotspots of groundwater development stress, taking into account the strongest computed increase until either 2030 or 2050 among all scenarios and individual GCMs. Based on this approach, the number of TBA-CUs under at least medium groundwater development stress increases from 20 to 58, comprising all hotspots under current conditions. New hotspots are projected to develop mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Mexico.
Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme – Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010–2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015–2020 and its implementation plan (2016–2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016–2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.
Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales. One productive way to unite data across scales is the study of functional morphological traits, which can form a common denominator for studying interactions between species and climate across taxa, across ecosystems, across space and through time—an approach we call ‘ecometrics’. The sampling methods that have become established in palaeontology to standardize over different scales can be synthesized with tools from community ecology and climate change biology to improve our understanding of the dynamics among species, ecosystems, climates and earth systems over time. Developing these approaches into an integrative climate change biology will help enrich our understanding of the changes our modern world is undergoing.
The Earth's future depends on how we manage the manifold risks of climate change (CC). It is state-of-the-art to assume that risk reduction requires participatory management involving a broad range of stakeholders and scientists. However, there is still little knowledge about the optimal design of participatory climate change risk management processes (PRMPs), in particular with respect to considering the multitude of substantial uncertainties that are relevant for PRMPs. To support the many local to regional PRMPs that are necessary for a successful global-scale reduction of CC risks, we present a roadmap for designing such transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes. The roadmap suggests ways in which uncertainties can be comprehensively addressed within a PRMP. We discuss the concept of CC risks and their management and propose an uncertainty framework that distinguishes epistemic, ontological, and linguistic uncertainty as well as ambiguity. Uncertainties relevant for CC risk management are identified. Communicative and modeling methods that support social learning as well as the development of risk management strategies are proposed for each of six phases of a PRMP. Finally, we recommend how to evaluate PRMPs as such evaluations and their publication are paramount for achieving a reduction of CC risks.
Climate change and variability affect virtually everyone and every region of the world but the effects are nowhere more prominent than in mountain regions and people living therein. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a vast expanse encompassing 18% of the world’s mountainous area. Sprawling over 4.3 million km2, the HKH region occupies areas of eight countries namely Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. The HKH region is warming at a rate higher than the global average and precipitation has also increased significantly over the last 6 decades along with increased frequency and intensity of some extreme events. Changes in temperature and precipitation have affected and will like to affect the climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document how climate change has impacted and will impact, health and well-being of the people in the HKH region and offers adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on health and well-being of the people. In the HKH region, climate change boosts infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries. Hence, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are needed urgently to safeguard vulnerable populations residing in the HKH region.
Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%.
WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a tool for modeling global water use and water availability. It participates among other models in the ISIMIP initiative (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). As part of this initiative, the water temperature should be calculated by participating hydrological models because it plays a vital role in many chemical, physical and biological processes. Therefore, the subject of this master thesis is to implement the physically based surface water temperature computation after VAN BEEK ET AL. (2012) and WANDERS ET AL. (2019) into WaterGAP and compare the results to the statistical regression approach by PUNZET ET AL. (2012). The computation is validated with observed water temperature data obtained from the GEMStat water quality database. The results are good for arctic and temperate latitudes. Surface water temperatures for tropical rivers are overestimated, most likely due to the overestimation of precipitation temperatures, incoming radiation and groundwater temperatures. The comparison with the regression model by PUNZET ET AL. (2012) shows matching results. The regression model even matches with WaterGAP results for most of the simulations of the future under climate change conditions, where the regression model should stop working due to changing environmental parameters. Several assumptions had to be made in order to implement the water temperature calculation in Water-GAP. These include, e.g., discharge temperatures for power plant cooling water, precipitation and surface runoff temperatures. For model improvements, perhaps three different values for the different regions of the world should be used to cool down the precipitation and surface runoff. The model could also be improved by refining the ice formation calculation, especially for the conditions when the ice melts, breaks up and is transported downstream. Furthermore, the feedback to the river channel roughness could be implemented if ice has formed. The WaterGAP model upgraded with the water temperature calculation will help the ISIMIP initiative in the future.
Recent reports have shown a dramatic loss in insect species and biomass. Since forensic entomology relies on the presence of insects, the question is whether this decline effects the discipline. The present review confirms that numerous studies document insect population declines or even extinction, despite the fact that the rates of decline and the methods used to demonstrate it are still much debated. However, with regard to a decline in necrophagous insects, there is little or only anecdotal data available. A hypothetical decrease in species diversity and population density in necrophagous insects could lead to a delayed colonization of dead bodies and a modified succession pattern due to the disappearance or new occurrence of species or their altered seasonality. Climate change as one of the drivers of insect decline will probably also have an impact on necrophagous insects and forensic entomology, leading to reduced flight and oviposition activity, modified growth rates and, therefore, an over- or underestimation of a minimum postmortem interval. Global warming with increased temperature and extreme weather requires a better understanding about necrophagous insect responses to environmental variations. Here, transgeneration effects in particular should be analysed in greater depth as this will help to understand rapid adaptation and plasticity in insects of forensic importance.
The transition to a sustainable economy currently involves a fundamental transformation of our capital markets. Lawmakers, in an attempt to overcome this challenge, frequently seek to prescribe and regulate how firms may address environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns by formulating conduct standards. Deviating from this conceptual starting point, the present paper makes the case for another path towards achieving greater sustainability in capital markets, namely through the empowerment of investors.
This trust in the market itself is grounded in various recent developments both on the supply side and the demand side of financial markets, and also in the increasing tendency of institutional investors to engage in common ownership. The need to build coalitions among different types of asset managers or institutional investors, and to convince fellow investors of a given initiative, can then act as an in-built filter helping to overcome the pursuit of idiosyncratic motives and supporting only those campaigns that are seconded by a majority of investors. In particular, institutionalized investor platforms have emerged over recent years as a force for investor empowerment, serving to coordinate investor campaigns and to share the costs of engagement.
ESG engagement has the potential to become a very powerful driver towards a more sustainability-oriented future. Indeed, I show that investor-led sustainability has many advantages compared to a more prescriptive, regulatory approach where legislatures are in the driver’s seat. For example, a focus on investor-led priorities would follow a more flexible and dynamic pattern rather than complying with inflexible pre-defined criteria. Moreover, investor-promoted assessments are not likely to impair welfare creation in the same way as ill-defined legal standards; they will also not trigger regulatory arbitrage and would avoid deadlock situations in corporate decision-making. Any regulatory activity should then be limited to a facilitative and supportive role.
Zwischen 1976 und 2008 stieg die Jahresdurchschnittstemperatur in Osnabrück um 1,3 °C dramatisch an. Die Erwärmung beschränkte sich im Wesentlichen auf das Winterhalbjahr. In den für Kiebitze relevanten Monaten der Ankunft, Vorbrut- und Brutphase (Februar, März, April) stiegen die über diesen Zeitraum gemittelten Temperaturen sogar um 2,0 °C an (1976 = 4,4 °C, 2008 = 6,4 °C). Das bedeutet eine jährliche Steigerung um 0,06 °C! In dem zugrundeliegenden 33-jährigen Zeitraum hat sich die Brutperiode beim Kiebitz um 15-18 Tage verfrüht: Die ersten Kiebitze (meist Durchzügler) wurden signifikant 24 Tage, die ersten Brutvögel 9 Tage früher beobachtet. Die Erwärmung bewirkte einen statistisch gesicherten früheren Brutbeginn (Eiablage/Erstgelegefund) um 15-17 und einen Schlupfbeginn um 18 Tage. Der Beginn des Frühsommerzuges blieb dagegen im Untersuchungszeitraum im Wesentlichen konstant. Die Verfrühung der beschriebenen phänologischen Parameter spiegelt mit großer Sicherheit die anthropogen verursachte Klimaerwärmung wider.
Auf dem Plateau des Göttinger Waldes wurden 1980 12 ha eines artenreichen, heute etwa 145 Jahre alten, submontanen Kalkbuchenwaldes (Hordelymo-Fagetum lathyretosum) für ein Ökosystemforschungsprojekt eingezäunt. In diesem Bereich wurde ein großer Transekt (GT) von 2,81 ha mit 281 10x10m-Quadraten als Dauerfläche zur Untersuchung der natürlichen Vegetationsentwicklung ausge-wählt. Von 1981 bis 2011 wurden alle 10 Jahre Flora und Vegetation sehr detailliert in allen Quadraten erfasst (Schichtung, Deckungsgradschätzung aller Arten in %, Vegetationskartierung). Die Ergebnisse werden in Tabellen der Krautschicht, in quantitativen Verteilungskarten einzelner Arten und in Vegetationskarten dargestellt. – Schon in den ersten 10 Jahren hatte sich teilweise eine Strauchschicht, vor-wiegend aus jungen Bäumen, entwickelt. Auch in der Krautschicht gab es deutliche Veränderungen. Eine Frequenztabelle aller 83 gefundenen Arten (Tab. 1) zeigt zahlreiche Pflanzen (33) mit Abnahme-tendenz, dazu einen Grundstock konstanter Arten. Deutlich zugenommen haben nur Allium ursinum, Cardamine bulbifera, Dryopteris carthusiana, Hedera helix und Neottia nidusavis. Für die Vegetationskartierung wurden verschiedene Einheiten nach Dominanz oder Mischung einzelner Arten benutzt, mit den Schlüsselarten Aconitum lycoctonum, Allium ursinum, Anemone nemorosa und Mercurialis perennis. – Insgesamt war lange Zeit der Antagonismus von Allium (deutliche Zunahme) und Mer-curialis (starke Abnahme) besonders auffällig. So hat sich auch der Allium ursinum-Dominanztyp über 30 Jahre stark ausgedehnt. Während sich kleinflächig in den Quadraten (Mikroskala) deutliche Veränderungen der Artenzusammensetzung zeigten, war im gesamten Bestand (Mesoskala) teilweise auch floristische Konstanz zu erkennen. – In der Diskussion werden mögliche Ursachen für die festgestellten Veränderungen erörtert. Neben lokalen Wirkungen wie Einzäunung oder der Konkurrenzkraft von Allium ursinum lassen sich im Literaturvergleich großräumig wirksame Faktoren erkennen. Seit langem vollzieht sich vor allem in forstlich wenig oder gar nicht beeinflussten Laubwäldern eine Verdichtung des Kronendaches mit Ausbildung eines stärker schattig-luftfeuchten Mikroklimas. Seit einigen Jahrzehnten können stärkere Stickstoffeinträge für nährstoffliebende Arten wirksam sein. In den letzten 20 Jahren lassen sich zunehmend Auswirkungen einer Klimaerwärmung erkennen, z. B. eine Verlängerung der Vegetationsperiode. Als neues Phänomen wird das Eschentriebsterben durch Pilzbefall beschrieben.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high‐resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant‐physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large‐scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.
Background: Malaria is still a priority public health problem of Nepal where about 84% of the population are at risk. The aim of this paper is to highlight the past and present malaria situation in this country and its challenges for long-term malaria elimination strategies.
Methods: Malariometric indicator data of Nepal recorded through routine surveillance of health facilities for the years between 1963 and 2012 were compiled. Trends and differences in malaria indicator data were analysed.
Results: The trend of confirmed malaria cases in Nepal between 1963 and 2012 shows fluctuation, with a peak in 1985 when the number exceeded 42,321, representing the highest malaria case-load ever recorded in Nepal. This was followed by a steep declining trend of malaria with some major outbreaks. Nepal has made significant progress in controlling malaria transmission over the past decade: total confirmed malaria cases declined by 84% (12,750 in 2002 vs 2,092 in 2012), and there was only one reported death in 2012. Based on the evaluation of the National Malaria Control Programme in 2010, Nepal recently adopted a long-term malaria elimination strategy for the years 2011–2026 with the ambitious vision of a malaria-free Nepal by 2026. However, there has been an increasing trend of Plasmodium falciparum and imported malaria proportions in the last decade. Furthermore, the analysis of malariometric indicators of 31 malaria-risk districts between 2004 and 2012 shows a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of confirmed malaria and of Plasmodium vivax, but not in the incidence of P. falciparum and clinically suspected malaria.
Conclusions: Based on the achievements the country has made over the last decade, Nepal is preparing to move towards malaria elimination by 2026. However, considerable challenges lie ahead. These include especially, the need to improve access to diagnostic facilities to confirm clinically suspected cases and their treatment, the development of resistance in parasites and vectors, climate change, and increasing numbers of imported cases from a porous border with India. Therefore, caution is needed before the country embarks towards malaria elimination.
This monograph contributes to research in content and language integrated learning (CLIL). Amidst the absence of any educational standards as well as other research deficits, Chapter II sketches a conceptual framework with a competence model for multilingual CLIL classes in the social sciences. It develops a line of argument for the promotion of global discourse competence for democratic participation within a transnational civil society. The subsequent four chapters, comprising one conceptual, one methodological and two empirical contributions, look at different aspects of the conceptual framework. Chapter III defends the developed competence model and further specifies its idea of thought in proposing the construction of multilingual 'cosmopolitan classroom glocalities' for the genesis of 21st century skills. The example of #climonomics, a multilingual EU parliamentary debate about climate change, illustrates its practical realization within school education and exemplifies the contribution to education for sustainable development (ESD) and the value of democratic and participatory learning arrangements. Chapter IV introduces design-based action research (DBAR), the method used in Chapters V & VI. DBAR is a hybrid of action and design-based research and is thereby ideally suited for bridging the gap of theory and practice in educational research. Chapter IV argues for closer cooperation between academics and practitioners, along with pragmatic stakeholder participation by involving students and teachers into research, in a quest for inductively making practical knowledge scientific. Chapter V, more language-biased, draws on the notion of translanguaging and presents the concept of 'trans-foreign-languaging' as a multilingual approach to CLIL with first language (L1) use. During six weeks DBAR, a comprehensive CLIL teaching model with judicious and principled L1 use was designed together with the study group. The model offers affordance-based and differentiated methods for different learner types. Its genesis is reconstructed by a thick description of the natural classroom dynamics. Chapter VI, rather subjectbased, asks about the influence of such bilingual language use on emotions, in particular on the formation of political judgments. It suggests different ways to measure emotions during various natural classroom settings. The chapter concludes that CLIL with L1 use has the potential to engender a perfect equilibrium of emotional and rational learning, integrating emotions into learning and valuing its positive contribution towards appropriate and multilayered political judgments. The concluding Chapter VII binds the previous chapters together and discusses the results. Criteria for the generalization of the results are assessed, and limits demarcated. It highlights the contribution to CLIL research and looks into the future, suggesting further direct classroom interventions, also with the goal to prepare the research field for larger undertakings.
An unfamiliar term in the not-too-distant past, “net zero” has become a headline-maker in the business and financial world with the growing importance of climate change. Succumbing to increasing pressure, companies and financial institutions around the world have come to adopt net-zero transition plans and targets, pledging to hit certain emission-reduction targets in a long-term period. Moreover, regulators around the world have started to require the disclosure or adoption of net-zero transition plans and targets.
However, an unintended consequence of net-zero transition commitments has been the increased popularity of divestments. That is, many firms seeking to fulfill a net-zero plan are passing on carbon-intensive assets (i.e., oil, gas, and coal assets) to other firms that are likely to be non-committal to environmental goals or that operate under less pressure from investors, stakeholders, and regulators. Such divestments, technically mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions, present an ideal opportunity to improve a divesting firm’s environmental record and reach ambitious net-zero goals, creating the impression that an emission reduction has occurred. However, the key is how acquiring firms handle these assets. If they continue operating as before, there will not be an overall improvement for the global climate. Worse, such assets can be operated by new owners in a way that causes more emissions. In any case, such divestments undermine the credibility and value of net-zero ambitions by allowing firms to reach targets by simply divesting assets.
This article explores the reasons and motivations for divestments or, more broadly M&As of carbon-intensive assets and explains why the increased role of net-zero commitments can be undermined by those transactions. We provide some evidence to illustrate the landscape of such transactions and the concerns they give rise to. Lastly, we explore several policy options to address the problem.
In the Central German Uplands, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies have been particularly affected by climate change. With the establishment of beech forests about 3000 years ago and pure spruce stands 500 years ago, they might be regarded as ‘neophytes’ in the Hessian forests. Palaeoecological investigations at wetland sites in the low mountain ranges and intramontane basins point to an asynchronous vegetation evolution in a comparatively small but heterogenous region. On the other hand, palynological data prove that sustainably managed woodlands with high proportions of Tilia have been persisting for several millennia, before the spread of beech took place as a result of a cooler and wetter climate and changes in land management. In view of increasingly warmer and drier conditions, Tilia cordata appears especially qualified to be an important silvicultural constituent of the future, not only due to its tolerance towards drought, but also its resistance to browsing, and the ability to reproduce vegetatively. Forest managers should be encouraged to actively promote the return to more stress-tolerant lime-dominated woodlands, similar to those that existed in the Subboreal chronozone.
Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) is a widely-distributed pest that feeds on many economically important hosts, particularly tropical fruits and ornamentals. The potential distribution of this mealybug pest in South Korea remains a primary concern because of its high incidence of interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, this species prompted a modelling effort to assess its potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for this pest with a CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s was projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results showed that P. longispinus has little potential for invasion in the outdoor environment of South Korea due to high cold stress in the 2020s. However, some locations in Jejudo were predicted to be marginally suitable under future climate factors. In that respect, the results of this model prediction could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early P. longispinus populations.
ZooBank registration. urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9E0CBFE6-E1AA-4B55-9E58-70B170E0FBD8
The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied credit risk across various time horizons. Findings show that firms with higher GHG emissions have higher CDS spreads at all tenors, including the 30-year horizon, particularly after the 2015 Paris Agreement, and in prominent industries such as Electricity, Gas, and Mining. Results suggest that the European CDS market is currently pricing, to some extent, albeit small, the exposure to transition risk for a firm across different time horizons. However, it fails to account for a company’s efforts to manage transition risks and its exposure to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. CDS market participants seem to find challenging to risk-differentiate ETS-participating firms from other firms.
Global consensus is growing on the contribution that corporations and finance must make towards the net-zero transition in line with the Paris Agreement goals. However, most efforts in legislative instruments as well as shareholder or stakeholder initiatives have ultimately focused on public companies.
This article argues that such a focus falls short of providing a comprehensive approach to the problem of climate change. In doing so, it examines the contribution of private companies to climate change, the relevance of climate risks for them, as well as the phenomenon of brown-spinning (ie, the practice of public companies selling their highly polluting assets to private companies). We show that one cannot afford to ignore private companies in the net-zero transition and climate change adaptation. Yet, private companies lack several disciplining mechanisms that are available to public companies, such as institutional investor engagement, certain corporate governance arrangements, and transparency through regular disclosure obligations. At this stage, only some generic regulatory instruments such as carbon pricing and environmental regulation apply to them.
The article closes with a discussion of the main policy implications. Primarily, we discuss and evaluate the recent push to extend climate-related disclosure requirements to private companies. These disclosures would not only help investors by addressing information asymmetry, but also serve a wide group of stakeholders and thus aim at promoting a transition to a greener economy.
Global consensus is growing on the contribution that corporations and finance must make towards the net-zero transition in line with the Paris Agreement goals. However, most efforts in legislative instruments as well as shareholder or stakeholder initiatives have ultimately focused on public companies: for example, most disclosure obligations result from the given company’s status of being listed on a stock exchange.
This article argues that such a focus falls short of providing a comprehensive approach to the problem of climate change. In doing so, it examines the contribution of private companies to climate change, the relevance of climate risks for them, as well as the phenomenon of brown-spinning. We show that one cannot afford to ignore private companies in the net-zero transition and climate change adaptation. Yet, private companies lack several disciplining mechanisms available to public companies such as institutional investor engagement, certain corporate governance arrangements, and transparency through regular disclosure obligations. At this stage, only some generic regulatory instruments such as carbon pricing and environmental regulation apply to them. The article closes with a discussion of the main policy implications. Primarily, we propose extending sustainability disclosure requirements to private companies.
Sustainability disclosures aim at promoting a transition to a greener economy, rather than (only) protecting investors by addressing information asymmetry. Therefore, these disclosures should encompass private companies that are of relevance for the net-zero transition. Such disclosures can be a powerful tool in shedding light on the polluting private companies that have so far been in the dark as well as serving as a disciplining mechanism.
The design of rainwater harvesting based gardens requires considering current climate but also climate change during the lifespan of the facility. The goal of this study is to present an approach for designing garden variants that can be safely supplied with harvested rainwater, taking into account climate change and adaptation measures. In addition, the study presents a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on rainwater harvesting based gardening. Results of the study may not be accurate due to the assumptions made for climate projections and may need to be further refined. We used a tank flow model and an irrigation water model. Then we established three simple climate scenarios and analyzed the impact of climate change on harvested rain and horticulture production for a semi-arid region in northern Namibia. In the two climate scenarios with decreased precipitation and medium/high temperature increase; adaptation measures are required to avoid substantial decreases in horticulture production. The study found that the most promising adaptation measures to sustain yields and revenues are a more water efficient garden variant and an enlargement of the roof size. The proposed measures can partly or completely compensate the negative impacts of climate change.
Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmatic, mobilized in the service of a normative outlook. We should be pluralists about responsibility and shape whatever conceptions can help to explain, guide, and motivate our responses to climate change. I sketch one such notion, ‘intervention-responsibility’, and argue that it should be ascribed to international regimes and organizations, states and other jurisdictions, individuals, and firms. Each has different capacities and thus different intervention-responsibilities responsibilities, but these differences are not always mirrored in public discussion. In particular, the moral responsibility of firms has been greatly neglected.
This paper addresses the phenomenon of climate-induced displacement. I argue that there is scope for an account of asylum as compensation owed to those displaced by the impacts of climate change which needs only to appeal to minimal normative commitments about the requirements of global justice. I demonstrate the possibility of such an approach through an examination of the work of David Miller. Miller is taken as an exemplar of a broadly ‘international libertarian’ approach to global justice, and his work is a useful vehicle for this project because he has an established view about both responsibility for climate change and about the state’s right to exclude would-be immigrants. In the course of the argument, I set out the relevant aspects of Miller’s views, reconstruct an account of responsibility for the harms faced by climate migrants which is consistent with Miller’s views, and demonstrate why such an account yields an obligation to provide asylum as a form of compensation to ‘climate migrants.’
Rising temperatures, falling ratings: the effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness
(2021)
How will a changing climate impact the creditworthiness of governments over the very long term? Financial markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, the authors simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world’s first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. The study offers a first methodological approach to extend the long-term rating to an ultra-long-term reality, aiming at long-term investors, but also regulators and rating agencies.
In search for practical silvicultural management tools to identify alternative tree species for predicted Central European climate conditions, a cross-species survey with five evergreen, semi-evergreen, and deciduous Quercus taxa with contrasting morphological leaf traits was performed. Fast chlorophyll fluorescence induction of PSII and relative leaf chlorophyll contents were performed to assess the overall plant vitality at any point in time during two complete vegetation periods in consecutive years (2012 and 2013). Maximum photochemical efficiency of PSII and the performance index on absorption base showed a very conservative relationship to each other and a similar intra-annual progress in all deciduous species, but with a different speed of increase and decrease during leaf development and senescence and thus a different length of vegetation period. The intra-annual variability of OJIP and chlorophyll content parameters is considered with respect to the practicability of measurements in the field for management purposes.
Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands’ ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Peštersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR.
Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951–2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979–2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg’s plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants’ response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010–2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA).
Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future
grasslands at the studied sites.
The main Question of this paper is: how can we tackle the global warming in accordance with the economical growth especially in emerging countries?
K. W. Kapp, “The Social Costs of Private Enterprise” (1950), defines the social costs as direct or indirect damages which are not compensated by the producer, but added to the third parties. An example might be the disaster of the BP plant in April 2010, in which the polluter can hardly cover all the damages so as to make the seawater clean, to regenerate the harmed natural lives and to recover the jobs and the everyday life of the residents on site.
The Club of Rome, “The Limits to Growth” (1972), makes us aware of the five conditions which set the limits to growth: population, industrialization, pollution, consumption of food and natural resources, which tendentiously increase in a exponential progression. The GDP growth 10% a year means that it will be 2.59 times as large in ten years, whereas technology could resolve problematic concerning five elements at highest in arithmetical progression.
Remarkable would be that the modern industrial civilization has brought social damages in form of global warming. Developed nations have not payed for it yet. All the people in the world should have right to economical growth at any rate, which would however be limited by those five conditions. Conclusion: the developed nations should give up the consumption lifestyle for the sake of equal right of every citizen in the world to reasonable standard of living.
There is increasing evidence that climate change will have a severe impact on species’ distributions by altering the climatic conditions within their present ranges. Especially species inhabiting stream ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected due to warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. The aim of this thesis was to
investigate how distributions of aquatic insects, i.e., benthic stream macroinvertebrates would be impacted by warming climates. The methods comprised of an ensemble forecasting technique based on species distribution models (SDMs) and climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the year 2080. Future model projections were generated for a wide variety of species from a number of taxonomic orders for two spatial scales: a stream network within the lower mountain ranges of Germany, and the entire territory across Europe. In addition, the effect of the modelling technique on habitat suitability projections was investigated by modifying the choice of study area (continuous area vs. stream network) and the choice of predictors (standard vs. corrected set).
Projections of future habitat suitability showed that potential climate-change impacts would be dependent on species’ thermal preferences, and with a similar pattern for both spatial scales. Future habitat suitability was projected to remain for most or all of the modelled species, and species were projected to track their climatically suitable conditions by shifting uphill along the river continuum within the lower mountain ranges, and into a north-easterly direction across Europe. Cold-adapted headwater and high-latitude species were projected to lose suitable habitats, whereas gains would be expected for warm-adapted river and low-latitude species along the river continuum and across Europe, respectively. Additionally, habitat specialist species in terms of endemics of the Iberian Peninsula were identified as potential climate-change losers, highlighting their restricted habitat availability and therefore vulnerability to warming climates.
The main findings of this thesis underline the high susceptibility of stream macroinvertebrates to ongoing climate change, and give insights into patterns of possible consequences due to changes in species’ habitat suitability. Concerning the methodology, a clear recommendation can be given for future modelling approaches of stream macroinvertebrates by building models within a stream network and with a careful choice of environmental predictors, to reduce uncertainties and thus to improve model projections.
The use of most if not all technologies is accompanied by negative side effects, While we may profit from today’s technologies, it is most often future generations who bear most risks. Risk analysis therefore becomes a delicate issue, because future risks often cannot be assigned a meaningful occurance probability. This paper argues that technology assessement most often deal with uncertainty and ignorance rather than risk when we include future generations into our ethical, political or juridal thinking. This has serious implications as probabilistic decision approaches are not applicable anymore. I contend that a virtue ethical approach in which dianoetic virtues play a central role may supplement a welfare based ethics in order to overcome the difficulties in dealing with uncertainty and ignorance in technology assessement.
The abiotic and biotic drivers of rapid diversification in Andean bellflowers (Campanulaceae)
(2016)
The tropical Andes of South America, the world's richest biodiversity hotspot, are home to many rapid radiations. While geological, climatic, and ecological processes collectively explain such radiations, their relative contributions are seldom examined within a single clade. We explore the contribution of these factors by applying a series of diversification models that incorporate mountain building, climate change, and trait evolution to the first dated phylogeny of Andean bellflowers (Campanulaceae: Lobelioideae). Our framework is novel for its direct incorporation of geological data on Andean uplift into a macroevolutionary model. We show that speciation and extinction are differentially influenced by abiotic factors: speciation rates rose concurrently with Andean elevation, while extinction rates decreased during global cooling. Pollination syndrome and fruit type, both biotic traits known to facilitate mutualisms, played an additional role in driving diversification. These abiotic and biotic factors resulted in one of the fastest radiations reported to date: the centropogonids, whose 550 species arose in the last 5 million yr. Our study represents a significant advance in our understanding of plant evolution in Andean cloud forests. It further highlights the power of combining phylogenetic and Earth science models to explore the interplay of geology, climate, and ecology in generating the world's biodiversity.