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Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change
(2016)
Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.
Metabolic critical temperatures define the range of ambient temperatures where endotherms are able to minimize energy allocation to thermogenesis. Examining the relationship between metabolic critical temperatures and basal metabolic rates (BMR) provides a unique opportunity to gain a better understanding of how animals respond to varying ambient climatic conditions, especially in times of ongoing and projected future climate change. We make use of this opportunity by testing the heat dissipation limit (HDL) theory, which hypothesizes that the maximum amount of heat a species can dissipate constrains its energetics. Specifically, we test the theory’s implicit prediction that BMR should be lower under higher metabolic critical temperatures. We analysed the relationship of BMR with upper and lower critical temperatures for a large dataset of 146 endotherm species using regression analyses, carefully accounting for phylogenetic relationships and body mass. We show that metabolic critical temperatures are negatively related with BMR in both birds and mammals. Our results confirm the predictions of the HDL theory, suggesting that metabolic critical temperatures and basal metabolic rates respond in concert to ambient climatic conditions. This implies that heat dissipation capacities of endotherms may be an important factor to take into account in assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change.
Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and impacts on species distributions and abundances are already evident. Heterogenous responses of species due to varying abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate these impacts through changes in species assemblages. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird distributions and, subsequently, on species richness as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity of species assemblages across the globe. We go beyond previous work by disentangling the potential impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity of species gains vs. losses under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes.
We show that climate change might not only affect species numbers and composition of global species assemblages but could also have profound impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity, which, across extensive areas, differ significantly from random changes. Both the projected impacts on phylogenetic diversity and on phylogenetic structure vary greatly across the globe. Projected increases in the evolutionary history contained within species assemblages, associated with either increasing phylogenetic diversification or clustering, are most frequent at high northern latitudes. By contrast, projected declines in evolutionary history, associated with increasing phylogenetic over-dispersion or homogenisation, are projected across all continents.
The projected widespread changes in the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages show that changes in species richness do not fully reflect the potential threat from climate change to ecosystems. Our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity and structure of species assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments and the value of integrating species-specific responses into assessments of entire community changes.