Refine
Year of publication
- 2015 (180) (remove)
Document Type
- Working Paper (180) (remove)
Language
- English (125)
- German (50)
- Spanish (4)
- Multiple languages (1)
Has Fulltext
- yes (180)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (180) (remove)
Keywords
- Solvency II (4)
- Währungsunion (4)
- systemic risk (4)
- Digital Humanities (3)
- Mobilität (3)
- Verkehr (3)
- insurance (3)
- Banking Union (2)
- Basel III (2)
- Digitalisierung (2)
Institute
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (115)
- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (108)
- Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) (86)
- House of Finance (HoF) (69)
- Rechtswissenschaft (19)
- Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (15)
- Exzellenzcluster Die Herausbildung normativer Ordnungen (10)
- Gesellschaftswissenschaften (9)
- Institut für sozial-ökologische Forschung (ISOE) (7)
- Geographie (6)
Zugehörigkeit im Sozialstaat
(2015)
Der Beitrag befasst sich mit der aktuell kontrovers diskutierten Frage des Zugangs von Ausländern – insbesondere von Unionsbürgern – zu staatlichen Sozialleistungen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt hierbei auf dem Grundsicherungsrecht, namentlich auf der Regelung des § 7 Abs. 1 S. 2 Nr. 2 SGB II, wonach arbeitssuchende Unionsbürger von Leistungen zur Grundsicherung ausgeschlossen werden. Unter Berücksichtigung der unionsrechtlichen Grundlagen wird der Frage nachgegangen, inwieweit sich der Leistungsausschluss für Unionsbürger und Ausländer in die dem Sozialleistungsrecht zugrundeliegende Konzeption der Territorialität (§ 30 Abs. 1 SGB I) einfügt. Es wird sich zeigen, dass Leistungsausschlüsse für diese Personengruppen im Grundsicherungsrecht als Konkretisierung des Territorialitätsgrundsatzes zu begreifen sind. Von der Annahme ausgehend, dass der "gewöhnliche Aufenthalt" im Sinne des § 30 SGB I also Dreh- und Angelpunkt für die sozialrechtliche Zugehörigkeit ist, soll die grundsätzliche Frage des Verhältnisses von Sozial- und Aufenthaltsrecht beleuchtet werden. Konkret formuliert geht es zum einen um die Frage, ob es für den Zugang zum Sozialleistungssystem eines rechtmäßigen Aufenthalts bedarf. Dass dies – anders als von einigen Sozialgerichten unter Berufung auf einschlägige Rechtsprechung des EuGH teilweise angenommen – zu verneinen ist, gilt zu zeigen. Zum anderen soll untersucht werden, ob und inwieweit gesetzlich geregelte Anforderungen an den Integrationsgrad von Ausländern für die sozialrechtliche Zugehörigkeit zulässig sind.
Für Arbeitswege charakteristisch sind eine räumliche und zeitliche Konzentration in Richtung Arbeitsplatzzentren und zu Tagesrandzeiten sowie ein überdurchschnittlich hoher Anteil des motorisierten Individualverkehrs an der Verkehrsmittelnutzung. So tragen Arbeitswege bedeutend zur zyklischen Belastung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur sowie zu städtischen Verkehrs- und Umweltproblemen bei. Da die Verkehrsmittelnutzung vor allem auch auf Arbeitswegen unter stabilen Rahmenbedingungen außerdem in hohem Maße routinisiert abläuft, kommt sogenannten Umbruchsereignissen in Mobilitätsbiographien eine zentrale Bedeutung hinsichtlich einer Reflexion des Mobilitätsverhaltens zu. Aufgrund dessen wird in dieser Arbeit zum einen untersucht, inwiefern überregionale Wohnumzüge (zwischen Bremen, Hamburg und dem Ruhrgebiet) zu einer Veränderung der Verkehrsmittelnutzung auf Arbeitswegen beitragen. Darauf aufbauend wird mittels multivariaten binär-logistischen Regressionsmodellen untersucht, welche Bedeutung veränderte raumstrukturelle Rahmenbedingungen sowie a priori vorhandene Verkehrsmittelpräferenzen für diese Veränderungen haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zum einen, dass es im Anschluss an Wohnumzüge zu einer signifikanten Veränderung der Verkehrsmittelnutzung auf Arbeitswegen in Form von einer Anpassung dessen an die mobilitätsbezogenen Rahmenbedingungen des Zielortes des Wohnumzugs kommt. Anhand der multivariaten Regressionsmodelle kann darüber hinaus ein signifikanter Einfluss raumstruktur- und präferenzbezogener Faktoren auf die Veränderung der Verkehrsmittelnutzung auf Arbeitswegen nachgewiesen werden. Da sich der Einfluss dieser Faktoren je nach Verkehrsmittel zum Teil sehr unterschiedlich gestaltet, werden aus diesen Ergebnissen abschließend verkehrsmittelspezifische Maßnahmen, z.B. zur Gestaltung eines (betrieblichen) Mobilitätsmanagements, abgeleitet.
This paper investigates whether exchanging the Social Security delayed retirement credit, currently paid as an increase in lifetime annuity benefits, for a lump sum would induce later claiming and additional work. We show that people would voluntarily claim about half a year later if the lump sum were paid for claiming any time after the Early Retirement Age, and about two-thirds of a year later if the lump sum were paid only for those claiming after their Full Retirement Age. Overall, people will work one-third to one-half of the additional months, compared to the status quo. Those who would currently claim at the youngest ages are likely to be most responsive to the offer of a lump sum benefit.
We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a diffusion state variable. We propose an approximation method that replaces the jumps by a diffusion and solve the resulting problem analytically. Furthermore, we provide explicit bounds on the true optimal strategy and the relative wealth equivalent loss that do not rely on quantities known only in the true model. We apply our method to a calibrated affine model. Our findings are threefold: Jumps matter more, i.e. our approximation is less accurate, if (i) the expected jump size or (ii) the jump intensity is large. Fixing the average impact of jumps, we find that (iii) rare, but severe jumps matter more than frequent, but small jumps.
Das Bundesverfassungsgericht sieht sich wegen seiner Entscheidungen, insbesondere zur europäischen Integration sowie zur rechtlichen Gleichstellung der Ehe mit der eingetragenen Lebenspartnerschaft, in jüngster Zeit mit zunehmender Kritik aus den Reihen der politischen Akteure konfrontiert. Die Rechtskolumne stellt diese Kritik in einen historischen Kontext und zeigt, dass inhaltliche Konflikte zwischen dem Gericht und der Politik ein wiederkehrendes Phänomen darstellen. Daran anschließend werden in der Diskussion stehende Maßnahmen zur Begrenzung des gerichtlichen Einflusses analysiert, die sich aber im Ergebnis als wenig erfolgversprechend bzw. aufgrund ihrer negativen strukturellen Auswirkungen als nicht tragfähig erweisen.
Rain- and floodwater harvesting (RFWH) technologies and water reuse are ideal and generalpurpose technologies to improve water security and to contribute to climate adaptation – in particular for semi-arid regions. These technologies are part of a multi-resources mix within an integrated water resources management (IWRM). They create capacities to buffer water fluctuations and alleviate water scarcity. In this way, they reduce the pressure on existing resources, and can stimulate local economies. However, in order to be sustainable, these technologies need to be adapted to the local context – through suitable design, adapted operation requirements, and a back-up by training users and operators accordingly.
Wasserbedarfsprognosen sind für Wasserversorger eine wichtige Entscheidungsgrundlage für zukünftige Maßnahmen in der wirtschaftlichen und technischen Betriebsführung sowie beim Ressourcenmanagement. In den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten sanken in Deutschland die spezifischen Wasserbedarfe aufgrund von Technik- und Verhaltensinnovationen. Für Regionen mit Wirtschafts- und Bevölkerungswachstum ist aber das Zusammenspiel dieser für den zukünftigen Bedarf konträren Entwicklungen von besonderem Interesse. Auch die Metropolregion Hamburg ist von diesen Entwicklungen betroffen.
Im Auftrag des Wasserversorgers HAMBURG WASSER aktualisierte das ISOE (Forschungsschwerpunkt Wasserressourcen und Landnutzung) in Kooperation mit dem ifo Institut München seine mittel- und langfristige Wasserbedarfsprognose aus dem Jahr 2007 für das Versorgungsgebiet des Auftraggebers. In einem innovativen Konzept wurden dafür Forschungsmethoden aus Natur-, Wirtschafts-, Planungs- und Sozialwissenschaften kombiniert. Mit dem gewählten transdisziplinären Forschungsmodus war das Projekt darauf angelegt, im laufenden Forschungsprozess gemeinsam mit den wissenschaftlichen und außerwissenschaftlichen Projektpartnern das Prognosekonzept weiterzuentwickeln. Der vorliegende Studientext basiert auf dem Projektbericht an HAMBURG WASSER und fasst Prognosekonzept, Modellentwicklung, Prognoseergebnissen und Schlussfolgerungen zusammen.
Von Februar bis Juni 2015 hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) die Notfall-Liquiditätshilfen (emergency liquidity assistance, ELA) für griechische Banken von 50 auf etwa 90 Milliarden Euro ausgeweitet. Dies hat zu einer Diskussion unter Wissenschaftlern, Politikern und Praktikern geführt, ob diese Liquiditätshilfen rechtmäßig sind. Es wurde der Vorwurf erhoben, die EZB trage bewusst zu einer Konkursverschleppung der bereits insolventen griechischen Banken bei.
Wir nehmen diesen Vorwurf zum Anlass, die Grundsätze des ELA-Programms genauer zu betrachten und die Frage zu diskutieren, ob das Programm in der aktuellen Situation rechtmäßig war. Zunächst beschreiben wir hierfür aus finanzwirtschaftlicher Perspektive die komplexe Beziehung zwischen der Europäischen Union, der EZB und den griechischen Banken. Dabei gehen wir insbesondere auf die wirtschaftspolitischen Grundsätze einer Währungsunion mit einer unvollständigen Fiskalunion (oder Haushaltskonsolidierung) ein. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysieren wir dann die Entscheidung der EZB, weiterhin Liquiditätshilfen an griechische Banken bereitzustellen. Wir kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass das Vorgehen der EZB nicht als Konkursverschleppung zu bezeichnen ist.
Das Verhältnis von Zwangsvollstreckungs- und Verfassungsrecht ist nicht nur in Deutschland ein aktuelles Thema in der zivilprozessualen, verfassungsrechtlichen und (verfahrens-) rechtspolitischen Diskussion, wie die vorliegende Themenwahl der o.g. Jahrestagung der International Association of Procedural Law (IAPL) belegt. Ein Ausschnitt aus dieser Gesamtthematik ist Gegenstand dieses Nationalberichts aus der Perspektive des deutschen (Verfahrens-) Rechts, der unter dem Generalhema „Verfassung, Grundrechte und Vollstreckungsrecht“ insbesondere das „Spannungsverhältnis“ der kollidierenden Grundrechte von Vollstreckungsschuldner und -gläubiger behandelt.
Since the 1970s, the overarching view in the literature has been that a Phillips curve relationship did not exist in Ireland prior to the 1979 exchange rate break with Sterling. It was argued that, as a small open economy, prices were determined externally. To test this relationship, we study the determination of inflation between 1926 and 2012, a longer sample period than any previously used. We find that the difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation both in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning the periods before and after the Sterling parity link.
Some observers have conjectured that oil supply shocks in the United States and in other countries are behind the plunge in the price of oil since June 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced that it would maintain current production levels despite the steady increase in non-OPEC oil production. Both conjectures are perfectly reasonable ex ante, yet we provide quantitative evidence that neither explanation appears supported by the data. We show that more than half of the decline in the price of oil was predictable in real time as of June 2014 and therefore must have reflected the cumulative effects of earlier oil demand and supply shocks. Among the shocks that occurred after June 2014, the most influential shock resembles a negative shock to the demand for oil associated with a weakening economy in December 2014. In contrast, there is no evidence of any large positive oil supply shocks between June and December. We conclude that the difference in the evolution of the price of oil, which declined by 44% over this period, compared with other commodity prices, which on average only declined by about 5%-15%, reflects oil-market specific developments that took place prior to June 2014.
There is a large, but yet growing debate about the need to complement the European monetary union with a stronger fiscal union. This paper reviews the potential trade-offs between effectiveness, moral hazard problems, and permanent redistribution. In particular, we contribute to the question of how member states may be willing to enter into a stronger fiscal union if the evolution of this union may imply large redistribution under incomplete contracting. We discuss clawback mechanisms that have been suggested in the literature, but conclude that clawbacks are undesirable, as they would essentially destroy the insurance value of a fiscal union. Instead, we propose that a clearly defined exit option as a guarantee against involuntary redistribution can make entry into a stronger fiscal union less risky and hence more attractive for member states.
A premise of the capabilities perspective in strategy is that firm-specific capabilities allow some firms to be unusually adept at exploiting growth opportunities. Since few firms have the capacity to internally generate the quantity or variety of strategic resources needed to exploit growth opportunities, the ability to externally acquire complementary resources is critical to the acquisition of competitive advantage. However, the external sourcing of resources exposes the firm’s strategic resources to risks of expropriation. We argue this threat gives capable firms incentive to use internally generated strategic resources to pursue growth opportunities before turning to external sources. A pecking order theory of strategic resource deployment is implied. Data from a 22-year sample of cross-border investment partnership decisions made by U.S.-based venture capital firms lend support to our theory.
The banking system is highly interconnected and these connections can be conveniently represented as an interbank network. This survey presents a systematic overview of the recent advances in the theoretical literature on interbank networks. We assess our current understanding of the structure of interbank networks, of how network characteristics affect contagion in the banking system and of how banks form connections when faced with the possibility of contagion and systemic risk. In particular, we highlight how the theoretical literature on interbank networks offers a coherent way of studying interconnections, contagion processes and systemic risk, while emphasizing at the same time the challenges that must be addressed before general results on the link between the structure of the interbank network and financial stability can be established. The survey concludes with a discussion of the policy relevance of interbank network models with a special focus on macroprudential policies and monetary policy.
In light of the failed negotiations with Greece, Jan Krahnen argues that an effective reform agenda for Greece can only be designed by the elected government. Fundamental reforms will take time to take full effect and euro area member states will, in the meantime, have to offer Greece a basic level of economic security.
Krahnen demands that policy makers and the professional public involved view the Greek crisis as an opportunity to take the next necessary steps to formulate a reform agenda for the European Monetary Union. A community of supranational and non-party researchers and intellectuals could take the initiative and in a structured process develop a trustworthy and realistic concept that drafts the next big step towards a political union of Europe, including elements of a fiscal union.
In the ‘age of transnationalization’, spatial mobility is highly valued as a resource and accordingly ‘sedentariness’ is often symbolically devalued. Migration between Poland and Germany (mainly from Poland to Germany) has a century-long tradition. Not only has it yielded the emergence of a dense transnational social space, but is also considered as a re-enactor of cultural traits and symbolic meanings. Spatial mobility is tied to notions of social mobility and to projects of life-making. Since legal restrictions for Polish migrants seeking to work and settle in Germany have vanished, the quest for ‘normalcy’ has enhanced and pressures towards even more migration have increased. I argue that symbolic meanings of mobility are decisive for hierarchies in transnational social spaces. I have put main emphasize on families’ practices of caring for and caring about each other: the first being more a physical or material activity, while the latter is a more symbolic and emotional one. The interviews reveal that people draw multiple differentiations between migrant populations in terms of their migration reasons as well as between the mobile and the immobile. Those differentiations are embedded in the distinct feature of the transnational social space between Poland and Germany with assumed differences in terms of ‘modernity’. At the end the symbolic meanings of mobility also help explain the puzzle of why the emigration rates from Poland are constantly high, although Poland is a comparatively wealthy country.
Regulatory failures, which came to the fore after the financial crisis of 2007-2009, lead to the question of why some activities by financial institutions were not regulated prior to the crisis of 2007, even though regulators knew about certain dangers to financial stability? The repo-market, although centrally involved in the last crisis, still awaits stringent regulation. At the same time, the regulatory cycle seems to come to an end, boding ill for future crises which will be amplified by this market. In this situation, NGOs are needed to make regulators act upon their knowledge and to tighten their regulations.
The paper discusses an additional reform proposal for enhancing Social Security solvency which reframes the existing debate in a different light. In our research, we focus on incentives to prolong working years and to delay benefits claiming as a way of sustaining Social Security. Specifically, we analyze how the offer of a budget-neutral, actuarially fair lump sum payment - instead of the current delayed retirement credit – would encourage people to delay claiming their OASI benefits and work longer. The results of our research will be useful for policymakers, namely in (1) measuring who would delay claiming benefits if offered a lump sum instead of higher annuity payments, (2) examining how long they would wait, and (3) how much longer, if at all, they would continue working in the interim.
In this paper, we examine how the institutional design affects the outcome of bank bailout decisions. In the German savings bank sector, distress events can be resolved by local politicians or a state-level association. We show that decisions by local politicians with close links to the bank are distorted by personal considerations: While distress events per se are not related to the electoral cycle, the probability of local politicians injecting taxpayers’ money into a bank in distress is 30 percent lower in the year directly preceding an election. Using the electoral cycle as an instrument, we show that banks that are bailed out by local politicians experience less restructuring and perform considerably worse than banks that are supported by the savings bank association. Our findings illustrate that larger distance between banks and decision makers reduces distortions in the decision making process, which has implications for the design of bank regulation and supervision.
In its meeting on 6 September 2012, the Governing Council of the ECB took decisions on a number of technical features regarding the Eurosystem’s outright transactions in secondary sovereign bond markets (OMT). This decision was challenged in the German Federal Constitutional Court (GFCC) by a number of constitutional complaints and other petitions. In its seminal judgment of 14 January 2014, the German court expressed serious doubts on the compatibility of the ECB’s decision with the European Union law.
It admitted the complaints and petitions even though actual purchases had not been executed and the control of acts of an organ of the EU in principle is not the task of the GFCC. As justification for this procedure the court resorted to its judicature on a reserved “ultra vires” control and the defense of the “constitutional identiy” of Germany. In the end, however, the court referred the case pursuant to Article 267 TFEU to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for preliminary rulings on several questions of EU law. In substance, the German court assessed OMT as an act of economic policy which is not covered by the competences of the ECB. Furthermore, it judged OMT as a – by EU primary law – prohibited monetary financing of sovereign debt. The defense of the ECB (disruption of monetary policy transmission mechanism) was dismissed without closer scrutiny as being “irrelevant”. Finally the court opened, however, a way for a compromise by an interpretation of OMT in conformity with EU law under preconditions, specified in detail.
Procedure and findings of this judgment were harshly criticized by many economists but also by the majority of legal scholars. This criticism is largely convincing in view of the admissibility of the complaints. Even if the “ultra vires” control is in conformity with prior decisions of court it is in this judgment expanded further without compelling reasons. It is also questionable whether the standing of the complaining parties had to be accepted and whether the referral to the ECJ was indicated. The arguments of the court are, however, conclusive in respect of the transgression of competences by the ECB and – to somewhat lesser extent – in respect of the monetary debt financing. The dismissal of the defense as “irrelevant” is absolutey persuasive.
The Treaty of Maastricht imposed the strict obligation on the European Union (EU) to establish an economic and monetary union, now Article 3(4) TEU. This economic and monetary union is, however, not designed as a separate entity but as an integral part of the EU. The single currency was to become the currency of the EU and to be the legal tender in all Member States unless an exemption was explicitly granted in the primary law of the EU, as in the case of the UK and Denmark. The newly admitted Member States are obliged to introduce the euro as their currency as soon as they fulfil the admission criteria. Technically, this has been achieved by transferring the exclusive competence for the monetary policy of the Member States whose currency is the euro on the EU, Article 3(1)(c) TFEU and by bestowing the euro with the quality of legal tender, the only legal tender in the EU, Article 128(1) sentence 3 TFEU.
The paper traces the developments from the formation of the European Economic and Monetary Union to this date. It discusses the fact that the primary mandate of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) is confined to safeguarding price stability and does not include general economic policy. Finally, the paper contributes to the discussion on whether the primary law of the European Union would support a eurozone exit. The Treaty of Maastricht imposed the strict obligation on the European Union (EU) to establish an economic and monetary union, now Article 3(4) TEU. This economic and monetary union is, however, not designed as a separate entity but as an integral part of the EU. The single currency was to become the currency of the EU and to be the legal tender in all Member States unless an exemption was explicitly granted in the primary law of the EU, as in the case of the UK and Denmark. The newly admitted Member States are obliged to introduce the euro as their currency as soon as they fulfil the admission criteria. Technically, this has been achieved by transferring the exclusive competence for the monetary policy of the Member States whose currency is the euro on the EU, Article 3(1)(c) TFEU and by bestowing the euro with the quality of legal tender, the only legal tender in the EU, Article 128(1) sentence 3 TFEU.
This paper analyzes the influence Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs) have on the operating performance of the LBO target companies’ direct competitors. A unique and hand-collected data set on LBOs in the United States in the period 1985-2009 allows us to analyze the effects different restructuring activities as part of the LBO have on the competitors’ revenues. These restructuring activities include changes to leverage, governance, or operating business, as well as M&A activities of the LBO target company. We find that although LBOs itself have a negative influence on competitors’ revenue growth, some restructuring mechanisms might actually benefit competing companies.
This Paper gives an overview of the German banking system and current challenges it is facing. It starts with an overview of the so-called ‘Three-Pillar-Banking-System’ and a detailed description of the current structure of the banking system in Germany. A brief comparison of the banking system in Germany with the ones in other European countries points out its uniqueness. The consequences of the financial crisis of 2007/2008 and further challenges for the German banking system are discussed, as well as the the ongoing debate around the question whether the strong government involvement should be sustained.
The Liikanen Group proposes contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds as a potential mechanism to enhance financial stability in the banking industry. Especially life insurance companies could serve as CoCo bond holders as they are already the largest purchasers of bank bonds in Europe. We develop a stylized model with a direct financial connection between banking and insurance and study the effects of various types of bonds such as non-convertible bonds, write-down bonds and CoCos on banks' and insurers' risk situations. In addition, we compare insurers' capital requirements under the proposed Solvency II standard model as well as under an internal model that ex-ante anticipates additional risks due to possible conversion of the CoCo bond into bank shares. In order to check the robustness of our findings, we consider different CoCo designs (write-down factor, trigger value, holding time of bank shares) and compare the resulting capital requirements with those for holding non-convertible bonds. We identify situations in which insurers benefit from buying CoCo bonds due to lower capital requirements and higher coupon rates. Furthermore, our results highlight how the Solvency II standard model can mislead insurers in their CoCo investment decision due to economically irrational incentives.
The Liikanen Group proposes contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds as instruments to enhance financial stability in the banking industry. Especially life insurance companies could serve as CoCo bond holders as they are already the largest purchasers of bank bonds in Europe. The growing number of banks issuing CoCo bonds leads to a rising awareness of these hybrid securities among life insurers as they are increasingly looking for higher?yielding investments into bond?like asset classes during the current low interest rate period. Our contribution provides an insight for life insurance companies to understand the effects of holding CoCo bonds as implied by the Solvency II standards that will become effective by 2016.
Low interest rates are becoming a threat to the stability of the life insurance industry, especially in countries such as Germany, where products with relatively high guaranteed returns sold in the past still represent a prominent share of the total portfolio. This contribution aims to assess and quantify the effects of the current low interest rate phase on the balance sheet of a representative German life insurer, given the current asset allocation and the outstanding liabilities. To do so, we generate a stochastic term structure of interest rates as well as stock market returns to simulate investment returns of a stylized life insurance business portfolio in a multi-period setting. Based on empirically calibrated parameters, we can observe the evolution of the life insurers’ balance sheet over time with a special focus on their solvency situation. To account for different scenarios and in order to check the robustness of our findings, we calibrate different capital market settings and different initial situations of capital endowment. Our results suggest that a prolonged period of low interest rates would markedly affect the solvency situation of life insurers, leading to a relatively high cumulative probability of default, especially for less capitalized companies. In addition, the new reform of the German life insurance regulation has a beneficial effect on the cumulative probability of default, as a direct consequence of the reduction of the payouts to policyholders.
In 2000 Italy replaced its traditional system of severance pay for public employees with a new system. Under the old regime, severance pay was proportional to the final salary before retirement; under the new regime it is proportional to lifetime earnings. This reform entails substantial losses for future generations of public employees, in the range of €20,000-30,000, depending on seniority. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we estimate the impact of this unanticipated change in lifetime resources, on the current consumption and wealth accumulation of employees affected by the reform. In line with theoretical simulations, we find that each euro reduction in severance pay reduces the average propensity to consume by 3 cents and increases the wealth-income ratio by 0.32. The response is stronger for younger workers and for households where both spouses are public sector employees.
We investigate the effect of the tone of news on investor stock price expectations and beliefs. In an experimental study we ask subjects to estimate a future stock price for twelve real listed companies. As additional information we provide them with historical stock prices and extracts from real newspaper articles. We propose a way to manipulate the tone of news extracts without distorting its content. Subjects in different treatment groups read news items that are written either in positive or negative tone for each stock. We find that subjects tend to predict a significantly higher (lower) return for stocks after reading positive (negative) tone news. The effect is especially pronounced for stocks with poor past performance. Subjects are more likely to be optimistic (pessimistic) about the economy and to buy (sell) stocks after reading positive (negative) than negative (positive) tone news. Our results show that the news media might affect not only how investors perceive information, but also what they do in response to it.
Adam Smith formulated a fundamental critique of economic growth in his philosophical oeuvre The Theory of Moral Sentiments, published in the year 1759. What might seem to be irony concerning the history of ideas – irony in the sense of the exclamation “he of all people” – is actually not irony at all. Smith wrote a substantial review of Rousseau’s Second Discourse, referring to Rousseau’s critique of commercial society. Additionally, one of the principal topics of Rousseau’s critique, the deformation of fundamental needs to passions in service of the satisfaction of self-love, is a major subject in Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments. But whereas Rousseau suggests egalitarian politics, Smith proposes individual stoicism: “In ease of body and peace of mind, all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings are fighting for.” Nevertheless, both authors and analysts of pre-capitalist society identify the difference between fundamental needs and desires as having been born out of comparison as both a source of unhappiness and of economic development.
In the mid-1990s, institutional investors entered the syndicated loan market and started to serve borrowers as lead arrangers. Why are non-banks able to compete for this role against banks? How do the composition of syndicates and loan pricing differ among lead arrangers? By using a dataset of 12,847 leveraged loans between 1997 and 2012, I aim to answer these questions. Non-banks benefit from looser regulatory requirements, have industry expertise which helps them in the screening and monitoring of borrowers and focus on firms that ask for loans only instead of additional cross-selling of other services. I can show that non-banks specialize on more opaque and less experienced borrowers, are more likely than banks to choose participants that help to reduce potentially higher information asymmetries and earn 105 basis points more than banks.
This paper1 investigates changes in the domestic work sector when passing from the informal to the formal labor market. The issue is explored within the context of the housework voucher policy (titres-services), which allows households to officially purchase weekly housework services from an authorized agency, through vouchers. This contribution has therefore a twofold focus: observing changes in labor market dynamics and investigating workers’ perception of this change. In order to discuss these issues, I will firstly look at the step from informal to formal labor market through two aspects: ethnic niches and individual labor dynamics – two bedrocks of Brussels domestic work market. Then, I will analyze workers’ personal experiences when acquiring a declared job in the voucher system.
Analyzing objective and subjective changes, a entral question of this article is to which extent the switch to the housework voucher system can bring empowerment to domestic workers. The sector work quality, in objective and subjective terms, has improved mainly by the setting of rules and by allowing workers to enjoy labor rights and a work status. The formal market dynamics of the housework voucher system remain, however, profoundly ethicized and marked by women’s presence, as was/is the shadow market.
The article shows that workers’ understanding of the transition from an informal to a formal sector is largely a result of their previous experiences and social position, mainly regarding migration status. This change will be thus much more assertive for workers who had their migrant status regularization and work formalization processes concomitantly, demonstrating that the most empowering shift is the one of acquiring papers, and not of entering declared work.
Increasing bike traffic in many European countries is a sign of a shift in planning paradigms towards more sustainable mobility cultures. It is also the result of 20 to 30 years of evolution and refinement in the training of urban and transport planners. Capacity development is therefore key when it comes to changing mobility cultures. Nevertheless, the day-to-day work of transport planners still focuses mostly on motorised traffic and the tasks of creating a smooth traffic flow, improving accessibility, and maintaining infrastructure. Cycling plays only a minor role, with efforts often still concentrated on the building of cycle lanes. The broader strategic goal of how to make urban mobility culture more sustainable – and within this the need to focus on cycling as an everyday mode of transport – is often neglected. Direct regulation is not possible when it comes to mobility cultures. Instead they represent a community-wide (communication) process that calls for a new planning paradigm: Besides the political will to establish a sustainable urban mobility culture, emphasis must also be placed on skills and training for urban and transport planners.
Im Jahr 2014 beschäftigten sich sowohl der Deutsche Juristentag als auch die Vereinigung der Deutschen Staatsrechtslehrer mit dem Reformbedarf im Gerichtsverfassungs- bzw. (Zivil-)Prozessrecht sowie mit dem Wandel der Justiz. Das Arbeitspapier ist der methodischen Frage gewidmet, welcher Innovationen die Prozessrechtswissenschaft bedarf, um sowohl Vollzugsdefizite als auch Reformentwicklungen im Recht der Dritten Gewalt sachgerecht untersuchen zu können. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Übertragung der im Verwaltungsrecht inzwischen etablierten Perspektive der Rechtswissenschaft als Steuerungswissenschaft auf das Prozessrecht. Es wird u.a. gezeigt, dass dieser Ansatz wissenschaftsgeschichtlich anschlussfähig ist und – als Referenzbeispiel – für das Verständnis des richterlichen Verfahrensermessens ertragreich sein kann.
Die deutsche Steuerpolitik kombiniert hohe Steuersätze mit zahlreichen Ausnahmen. Das reißt Gerechtigkeitslücken, lenkt Investitionen in die falschen Zwecke und verkompliziert das Steuersystem mitunter bis zur Unkenntlichkeit. Bei der Erbschaftsteuer ist dies besonders augenfällig. Der Versuch mit minimalinvasiven Korrekturen Konsistenz in die Erbschaft- und Schenkungsteuer zu bringen ist fast zwangsläufig zum Scheitern verurteilt. Vieles spricht stattdessen für deutlich abgesenkte Steuersätze und eine gleichzeitige Abschaffung der Vergünstigungen für Betriebsvermögen.
Historical scholarship on the sixteenth-century neo-scholastic debate about American Indians generally centers on the thought of Francisco de Vitoria. Focusing on Alfonso de Castro’s short treatise Utrum indigenae (1543), this paper challenges both an exclusive concentration on Vitoria as well as the received contention that the thought of the School of Salamanca rendered a single, unified view of Amerindians. In Utrum indigenae, Castro argued that American Indians should be instructed in liberal arts and theology thus constructing a strikingly different image of the peoples of the New World as compared to accounts by Vitoria or Francisco Suárez. While the historian Martin Nesvig has recently proposed an Erasmian humanist contextualization of Castro’s treatise, I argue that the image of American Indians presented in Utrum indigenae testifies to an alternative, novel way of writing about American Indians from within the framework of the School of Salamanca which has so far remained unnoticed.
Die Private Krankenversicherung ist explizit seit Einführung der Versicherungspflicht im Jahr 2008 neben der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung zweite Säule eines umfassenden Krankenversicherungsschutzes in Deutschland. Sie ist – auch schon traditionell – umfassend reguliert; Versichertenwettbewerb innerhalb der PKV aber auch zur GKV findet in entsprechend enger rechtlicher Strukturierung statt. In den letzten Jahren wird die PKV zudem auch immer stärker bei der Regulierung der Leistungserbringer berücksichtigt bzw. einbezogen. Der Beitrag gibt einen komprimierten Überblick über die Regulierung der PKV als Teil des Gesundheitssystems.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between credit risk and liquidity in the sovereign bond market in the context of the European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Using a comprehensive set of liquidity measures obtained from a detailed, quote-level dataset of the largest interdealer market for Italian government bonds, we show that changes in credit risk, as measured by the Italian sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread, generally drive the liquidity of the market: a 10% change in the CDS spread leads a 11% change in the bid-ask spread. This relationship is stronger, and the transmission is faster, when the CDS spread is above the 500 basis point threshold, estimated endogenously, and can be ascribed to changes in margins and collateral, as well as clientele effects. Moreover, we show that the Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) intervention by the ECB weakened the sensitivity of the liquidity provision by the market makers to changes in the Italian government's credit risk. We also document the importance of market-wide and dealer-specific funding liquidity measures in determining the market liquidity for Italian government bonds.
Investors and insurance policyholders are often confronted with complex products and providers' opaque organisational structures. At the same time, the possibility that their claims will not be honoured often poses an existential risk. Financial regulation therefore aims at putting in place a financial services framework that will safeguard market processes whilst also protecting consumers. However, benefits of regulation are accompanied by certain risks, as can be exemplified with the case of insurance regulation.
Kapitalanleger wie Versicherungsnehmer werden oft konfrontiert mit komplexen Produkten und nicht durchschaubaren Unternehmensstrukturen der Anbieter. Gleichzeitig stellt die mögliche Nichterfüllung ihrer Ansprüche häufig ein existenzielles Risiko dar. Deshalb ist es Ziel der Finanzregulierung, Rahmenbedingungen im Finanzdienstleistungsbereich zu schaffen, die wirtschaftliche Abläufe gewährleisten und gleichzeitig den Konsumenten schützen. Dem Nutzen der Regulierung stehen aber auch Risiken gegenüber, die im diesem Artikel am Beispiel der Versicherungsregulierung dargelegt werden.
When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations. We derive the equilibrium dynamics in closed form and show that joint presence of both risks leads to over-proportional risk exposure for households. This implies that the whole benefit from insurance through social security is greater than the sum of the benefits from insurance against each of the two risks in isolation. We measure this through interaction effects which appear even though the two risks are orthogonal by construction. While the interactions unambiguously increase the welfare benefits from insurance, they can in- or decrease the welfare costs from crowding out of capital formation. The net effect depends on the relative strengths of the opposing forces.
Signaling cooperation
(2015)
We examine what an applicant’s vita signals to potential employers about her willingness to cooperate in teams. Intensive social engagement may credibly reveal that an applicant cares about the well-being of others and therefore is less likely to free-ride in teamwork situations. We find that contributions in a public goods game strongly increase in a subject’s degree of social engagement as indicated on her résumé (and rated by an independent third party). Engagement in other domains, such as student or sports associations, is not positively correlated with contributions. In a prediction experiment with human resource managers from various industries, we find that managers use résumé content effectively to predict relative differences in subjects’ willingness to cooperate. Thus, young professionals signal important behavioral characteristics to potential employers through the choice of their extracurricular activities.
The calculus LRP is a polymorphically typed call-by-need lambda calculus extended by data constructors, case-expressions, seq-expressions and type abstraction and type application. This report is devoted to the extension LRPw of LRP by scoped sharing decorations. The extension cannot be properly encoded into LRP if improvements are defined w.r.t. the number of lbeta, case, and seq-reductions, which makes it necessary to reconsider the claims and proofs of properties. We show correctness of improvement properties of reduction and transformation rules and also of computation rules for decorations in the extended calculus LRPw. We conjecture that conservativity of the embedding of LRP in LRPw holds.
This report documents the extension LRPw of LRP by sharing decorations. We show correctness of improvement properties of reduction and transformation rules and also of computation rules for decorations in the extended calculus LRPw. We conjecture that conservativity of the embedding of LRP in LRPw holds.
Ruling parties as communities of practice and collective identity in China-Ethiopia relations
(2015)
While it helps to put the overemphasis on Chinese agency in the literature into perspective, the recent debate on the role played by African agency in Sino-African relations generally adopts the same rationalist perspective on international politics, and thus stands to miss important aspects of the relations studied. This paper takes the example of Ethiopia, which is often used to highlight African elites’ strategic use of the new options presented by China’s rise, and analyses it from a constructivist perspective. Such a perspective proposes that we need to take the role played by ideas, discourses and emotions seriously, and that Ethiopian policy makers do not exist outside a dense web of personal relations, common knowledge, and shared practices that inadvertently structure their relations with China. More specifically, it is argued here that the ruling parties of China and Ethiopia are linked together in an international community of practice, that exchanges within this community have strengthened the perception of like-mindedness, and that Sino-Ethiopian relations therefore rest on a different basis than is acknowledged by purely rationalist accounts.
We model education as an investment in human capital that, like other investments, is appropriately evaluated in a framework that accounts for risk as well as return. In contrast to dominant wage-premia approach to calculating the returns to education, but which implicitly ignores risk, we evaluate the returns by treating the value of human capital as the price of a non-tradable risky asset. We do so using a lifecycle framework that incorporates risk preferences and earnings risk, as well as a progressive income tax and social insurance system. Our baseline estimate is that a college degree provides a $440K dollar increase in annual certainty-equivalent consumption. Although significantly smaller than traditional estimates of the value of education, these returns are still large enough to offset both the direct and indirect cost of college education for a large range of plausible preference parameters. Importantly, however, we find that accounting for risk reverses the finding from the education wage-premia literature regarding the trends in the returns to education. In particular, we find that the risk-adjusted gains from college completion actually decreased rather than increased in the recent period. Overall, our results show the importance of earnings risks in assessing the value of education.
A number of recent studies regress a "narratively" identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of an instrumental variable approach in which the narrative time series is used as an instrument for an endogenous series of interest. This motivates evaluating the validity of narrative measures through the lens of a randomized experiment. We apply our framework to four recently constructed narrative measures of tax shocks by Romer and Romer (2010), Cloyne (2013), and Mertens and Ravn (2012). All of them turn out to be weak instruments for observable measures of taxes. After correcting for weak instruments, we find that using any of the considered narrative tax measures as an instrument for cyclically adjusted tax revenues yields tax multiplier estimates that are indistinguishable from zero. We conclude that the literature currently understates the uncertainty associated with quantifying the tax multiplier.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, both resolution planning, i.e. contingency planning by both regulated institutions and public authorities in order to prepare their actions in financial crisis, and concepts for structural bank reform have been identified as possible solutions to ending “Too Big To Fail” and foster market discipline among bank owners, bank managers and investors in bank debt. Both concepts thus complement the global quest for reliable procedures and tools for bank resolution that would minimise systemic implications once large and complex financial institutions have reached the stage of insolvency. Given the complex task of orchestrating swift and effective resolution actions, especially with regard to cross-border banking groups and financial conglomerates, planning ahead in good times has since been widely recognised as crucial for enhancing resolvability. At least part of the impediments to resolution will be found in organisational, financial and legal complexity that has evolved in banks and groups over time. To remove these impediments, interference with existing corporate and group structures is all but inevitable. However, in both international standard setting and at the European Union level, issues related to resolution planning (within the context of bank resolution reform) and structural banking reforms to date have been discussed rather separately. This lack of consistency is questionable, given the obvious need to reconcile both approaches in order to facilitate effective implementation and enforcement especially with regard to large, complex banking groups. Based on an analysis both of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive and the SRM Regulation, this paper explores how these problems could be dealt with within the context of the European Banking Union.
Dieser Beitrag ist ein Besprechungsaufsatz zu Beatrice Brunhöbers 2010 erschienener Dissertation Die Erfindung „demokratischer Repräsentation“ in den Federalist Papers (Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen: Grundlagen der Rechtswissenschaft, Bd. 14), in der Brunhöber die innovative – und auch die Verfassungsentwicklung andernorts prägende – Kraft der Verbindung von Demokratie, politischer Repräsentation und Föderalismusidee durch die amerikanischen Verfassungsväter herausarbeitet. Auf der Basis von Brunhöbers Untersuchung geht es insbesondere darum, wie sich das von Hamilton, Madison und Jay entworfene ‚alte‘ Konzept zur Gestaltung eines starken Gemeinwesens (eingeschlossen das vertrauensbildende Prinzip der Gewaltenteilung) für einen integrativen Umgang mit den ‚modernen‘ Gegebenheiten pluralistischer Gesellschaften nutzbar machen läßt, im Blick die Gesamtheit (und Vielfalt) des Staatsvolkes als Geltungsfundament legitimer Herrschaft. Im Hintergrund steht die Frage nach Möglichkeiten zur Nutzbarmachung historischer Vergewisserungen für heutige Debatten überhaupt.
This paper looks into the specific influence that the European banking union will have on (future) bank client relationships. It shows that the intended regulatory influence on market conditions in principle serves as a powerful governance tool to achieve financial stability objectives.
From this vantage, it analyzes macro-prudential instruments with a particular view to mortgage lending markets – the latter have been critical in the emergence of many modern financial crises. In gauging the impact of the new European supervisory framework, it finds that the ECB will lack influence on key macro-prudential tools to push through more rigid supervisory policies vis-à-vis forbearing national authorities.
Furthermore, this paper points out that the current design of the European bail-in tool supplies resolution authorities with undue discretion. This feature which also afflicts the SRM imperils the key policy objective to re-instill market discipline on banks’ debt financing operations. The latter is also called into question because the nested regulatory technique that aims at preventing bail-outs unintendedly opens additional maneuvering space for political decision makers.
This paper looks into the specific influence that the European banking union will have on (future) bank client relationships. It shows that the intended regulatory influence on market conditions in principle serves as a powerful governance tool to achieve financial stability objectives.
From this vantage, it analyzes macro-prudential instruments with a particular view to mortgage lending markets – the latter have been critical in the emergence of many modern financial crises. In gauging the impact of the new European supervisory framework, it finds that the ECB will lack influence on key macro-prudential tools to push through more rigid supervisory policies vis-à-vis forbearing national authorities.
Furthermore, this paper points out that the current design of the European bail-in tool supplies resolution authorities with undue discretion. This feature which also afflicts the SRM imperils the key policy objective to re-instill market discipline on banks’ debt financing operations. The latter is also called into question because the nested regulatory technique that aims at preventing bail-outs unintendedly opens additional maneuvering space for political decision makers.
Our paper evaluates recent regulatory proposals mandating the deferral of bonus payments and claw-back clauses in the financial sector. We study a broadly applicable principal agent setting, in which the agent exerts effort for an immediately observable task (acquisition) and a task for which information is only gradually available over time (diligence). Optimal compensation contracts trade off the cost and benefit of delay resulting from agent impatience and the informational gain. Mandatory deferral may increase or decrease equilibrium diligence depending on the importance of the acquisition task. We provide concrete conditions on economic primitives that make mandatory deferral socially (un)desirable.
Mehr als 18 Milliarden Euro hat die Commerzbank im Zuge der Finanzkrise in Form von staatlichen Garantien, Kapitalspritzen oder Einlagen erhalten. Auch die Hypo Real Estate, die WestLB, die SachsenLB und die IKB profitierten von Stützungsmaßnahmen. Die EU genehmigte diese und andere staatlichen Hilfsmaßnahmen. Grundsätzlich sind staatliche Stützungsmaßnahmen jedoch als wirtschaftlicher Vorteil zu werten und damit zunächst eine verbotene Beihilfe. In seinem Working Paper betrachtet Tuschl die rechtlichen Grundlagen des EU-Beihilferechts und zeigt die teilweise differierende Praxis der EU-Kommission auf.
Am 12. Januar 2015 schwärmten 58 ForscherInnen und Studierende, 31 aus Berlin, 27 aus Chemnitz, auf den Skatepark in der Dresdener Lingnerallee. Ziel der Aktion war es, mehr über die Proteste der "Patriotischen Europäer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes" (Pegida) herauszufinden. Seit Oktober 2014 hatten sich in Dresden immer mehr Menschen unter diesem sperrigen Motto versammelt. Mit den Protesten wuchs auch die Kritik an den völkischen und rassistischen Deutungsmustern, die dort Raum griffen. Wer waren die Demonstrierenden? Was trieb sie auf die Straße? Wie verbreitet waren die Ressentiments, die in Reden, Sprechchören und auf Transparenten hör- und sichtbar waren? ...
Do markets correct individual behavioral biases? In an experimental asset market, we compare the outcomes of a standard market economy to those of a an island economy that removed market interactions. We observe asset price bubbles in the market economy while prices are stable in the island economy. We also find that subjects took more risk following larger losses, resulting in larger prices and consistent with a gambling for resurrection motive. This motive can translate into bubbles in the market economy because higher prices increase average losses and thus reinforce the desire to resurrect. By contrast, the absence of such a strategic complementarity in island economies can explain the more stable outcome. These results suggest that markets do not correct behavioral biases, rather the contrary.
Ecolabels are frequently presented as consumer information tools that efficiently promote environmental aims such as the sustainability of fisheries. Two recent WTO dispute settlement cases -- Tuna II and COOL -- have called into question the characterisation of labels as ‘consumer information tools’ by illuminating the regulatory power and purposes of labelling. Tuna II moreover clarifies that WTO law does not necessarily privilege ecolabelling over more openly interventionist government measures aimed at environmental protection. In this contribution I first sketch two views of ecolabelling -- one that depicts ecolabelling as primarily aiming at consumer information and another that stresses the regulatory function of labelling. I then turn to the dispute settlement reports in Tuna II and COOL in order to specify the government authority involved in many labelling schemes. I conclude this contribution with the call for a critical assessment of ecolabelling. The power of ecolabelling may be employed to reshape markets and promote green growth. At the same time, however, it may consolidate a trend that places the consumer at the centre of initiatives for societal change and loses sight of potentially more radical transformations through the engagement of human beings as citizens.
We develop a dynamic recursive model where political and economic decisions interact, to study how excessive debt-GDP ratios affect political sustainability of prudent fiscal policies. Rent seeking groups make political decisions – to cooperate (or not) – on the allocation of fiscal budgets (including rents) and issuance of sovereign debt. A classic commons problem triggers collective fiscal impatience and excessive debt issuing, leading to a vicious circle of high borrowing costs and sovereign default. We analytically characterize debt-GDP thresholds that foster cooperation among rent seeking groups and avoid default. Our analysis and application helps in understanding the politico-economic sustainability of sovereign rescues, emphasizing the need for fiscal targets and possible debt haircuts. We provide a calibrated example that quantifies the threshold debt-GDP ratio at 137%, remarkably close to the target set for private sector involvement in the case of Greece.
Den Ausgangspunkt für diese Dissertation bildeten die seit 2010 verstärkt stattfindenden Diskussionen um das Thema Elektromobilität, deren politischer Fokus auf das Elektroautomobil gerichtet ist, was insbesondere in dem Ziel von 1 Mio. Elektroautos, die bis 2020 in Deutschland unterwegs sein sollen, zum Ausdruck kommt. Während die Fortschritte in diesem Bereich aber relativ verhalten waren, hatte sich zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits die Fahrrad-Elektromobilität aus einem Schattendasein gelöst und in den letzten Jahren erhebliche Zuwächse erzielen können. Nach Erkenntnissen des Zweirad-Industrie-Verbandes (ZIV 2013) hat sich die Anzahl verkaufter Pedelecs zwischen 2009 und 2012 kontinuierlich von 150.000 auf 380.000 erhöht.
Im Rahmen der Dissertation wurde über die Analyse der Akzeptanz, Nutzung und Wirkung von Pedelecs untersucht, ob durch die verstärkte Nutzung dieser technologischen Innovation ein Beitrag zu einem nachhaltigeren und zukunftsfähigen Mobilitätssystem geleistet werden kann. Das Ziel der Untersuchung mit dem Schwerpunkt der berufsbezogenen Mobilität war es, herauszufinden, ob und ggf. wie durch eine Verstärkung der Praxis des Pedelec‐Fahrens ein Wandel innerhalb des Mobilitätssystems erreicht werden kann.
Als Ergebnis der Dissertation kann festgehalten werden, dass die Chancen für einen Wandel des Mobilitätssystems derzeit sehr gut stehen und Pedelecs, als vergleichsweise nachhaltige Fahrzeuge, dazu einen aktiven Beitrag leisten können. Zwar findet die dazu notwendige Nutzung, die insbesondere aber nicht ausschließlich zu einer Reduzierung von Automobilität führt, derzeit noch auf einem relativ niedrigen Niveau statt, so dass von einem systemwirksamen Beitrag noch nicht gesprochen werden kann. Es konnten aber, neben der Substitutionswirkung, noch weitere Wirkungen identifiziert werden, die ebenfalls Beiträge zu einem nachhaltigeren Mobilitätssystem leisten können. Damit wird deutlich, dass eine weitere Förderung von Pedelecs, die als notwendig erachtet wird, nicht nur der Pedelec-Mobilität zugutekommen kann, sondern nachhaltiger Mobilität insgesamt.
Im Projekt galt es zu untersuchen, (1) wie Führungskräfte in der Altenhilfe durch eine Fortbildung wirksame Impulse hin zu einer stärkeren Mitarbeiterorientierung erhalten können und (2) welche Fortbildungssettings dafür geeignet sind. Es wurden hierfür berufsbegleitende Fortbildungen für Führungskräfte aus stationären Einrichtungen und aus ambulanten Diensten entwickelt und erprobt...
This paper studies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model involving climate change. Our model allows for damages on economic growth resulting from global warming. In the calibration, we capture effects from climate change and feedback effects on the temperature dynamics. We solve for the optimal state-dependent abatement policy. In our simulations, the costs of this policy measured in terms of lost GDP growth are moderate. On the other hand, postponing abatement action could reduce the probability that the climate can be stabilized. For instance, waiting for 10 years reduces this probability from 60% to 30%. Waiting for another 10 years leads to a probability that is less than 10%. Finally, doing nothing opens the risk that temperatures might explode and economic growth decreases significantly.
I assess how Basel III, Solvency II and the low interest rate environment will affect the financial connection between the bank and insurance sector by changing the funding patterns of banks as well as the investment strategies of life insurance companies. Especially for life insurance companies, the current low interest rate environment poses a key risk since declining returns on investments jeopardize the guaranteed return on life insurance contracts, a core component of traditional life insurance contracts in several European countries. I consider a contingent claim framework with a direct financial connection between banks and life insurers via bank bonds. The results indicate that life insurers' demand for bank bonds increases over the mid-term but ultimately declines in the long-run. Since life insurers are the largest purchasers of bank bonds in Europe, banks could lose one of their main funding sources. In addition, I show that shareholder value driven life insurers' appetite for risk increases when the gap between asset return and liability growth diminishes. To check the robustness of the findings, I calibrate a prolonged low interest rate scenario. The results show that the insurer's risk appetite is even higher when interest rates remain persistently low. A sensitivity analysis regarding industry-specific regulatory safety levels reveals that contagion between bank and life insurer is driven by the insurers' demand for bank bonds which itself depends on the regulatory safety level of banks.
n this paper we compute the optimal tax and education policy transition in an economy where progressive taxes provide social insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, but distort the education decision of households. Optimally chosen tertiary education subsidies mitigate these distortions. We highlight the importance of two different channels through which academic talent is transmitted across generations (persistence of innate ability vs. the impact of parental education) for the optimal design of these policies and model different forms of labor as imperfect substitutes, thereby generating general equilibrium feedback effects from policies to relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers. We show that subsidizing higher education has important redistributive benefits, by shrinking the college wage premium in general equilibrium. We also argue that a full characterization of the transition path is crucial for policy evaluation. We find that optimal education policies are always characterized by generous tuition subsidies, but the optimal degree of income tax progressivity depends crucially on whether transitional costs of policies are explicitly taken into account and how strongly the college premium responds to policy changes in general equilibrium.
Although banks are at the center of systemic risk, there are other institutions that contribute to it. With the publication of the leveraged lending guideline in March 2013, the U.S. regulators show that they are especially worried about the private equity firms with their high-risk deals. Given these risks and the interconnectedness of the banks through the LBO loan syndicates, I shed light on the impact of a bank’s LBO loan exposure on its systemic risk. By using 3,538 observations between 2000 and 2013 from 165 global banks, I show that banks with higher LBO exposure also have a higher level of systemic risk. Other loan purposes do not show this positive relationship. The main drivers influencing this relationship positively are the bank’s interconnectedness to other LBO financing banks and its size. Lending experience with a specific PE sponsor, experience with leading LBO syndicates or a bank’s credit rating, however, lead to a lower impact of the LBO loan exposure on systemic risk.
This paper undertakes a quantitative investigation of the effects of anticipated inflation on the distribution of household wealth and welfare. Consumer Finance Data on household financial wealth suggests that about a third of the US population holds all its financial assets in transaction accounts. The remaining two-third of the US population holds most of their financial assets outside transaction accounts. To account for this evidence, I introduce a portfolio choice in a standard incomplete markets model with heterogeneous agents. I calibrate the model economy to SCF 2010 US data and use this environment to study the distributive effects of changes in anticipated inflation. An increase in anticipated inflation leads households to reshuffle their portfolio towards real assets. This crowding-in of supply for real assets lowers equilibrium interest rates and thereby redistributes wealth from creditors to borrowers. Because borrowers have a higher marginal utility, this redistribution improves aggregate welfare. First, this paper shows that inflation acts not only a regressive consumption tax as in Erosa and Ventura (2002), but also as a progressive tax. Second, this paper shows that the welfare cost of inflation are even lower than the estimates computed by Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009). Finally, this paper offers insights into why deflationary environments should be avoided.
Different scales, different features. It’s the main difference between the thesis we have presented here, and the one that has so far dominated the study of the paragraph. By defining it as "a sentence writ large", or, symmetrically, as "a short discourse", previous research was implicitly asserting the irrelevance of scale: sentence, paragraph, and discourse were all equally involved in the "development of one topic". We have found the exact opposite: 'scale is directly correlated to the differentiation of textual functions'. By this, we don't simply mean that the scale of sentences or paragraphs allows us to "see" style or themes more clearly. This is true, but secondary. Paragraphs allows us to "see" themes, because themes fully "exist" only at the scale of the paragraph. Ours is not just an epistemological claim, but an ontological one: if style and themes and episodes exist in the form they do, it's because writers work at different scales – and do different things according to the level at which they are operating.
There is a growing debate about complementing the European Monetary Union by a more comprehensive fiscal union. Against this background, this paper emphasizes that there is a trade-off in designing a system of fiscal transfers ("fiscal capacity") in a union between members of different size. A system cannot guarantee symmetric treatment of members and simultaneously ensure a balanced budget. We compute hypothetical transfers for the Eurozone members from 2001 to 2012 to illustrate this trade-off. Interestingly, a symmetric system that treats shocks in small and large countries symmetrically would have produced large budgetary surpluses in 2009, the worst year of the financial crisis.
Elementar für eine zukunftsfähige Verkehrsplanung ist eine möglichst detaillierte Kenntnis des Mobilitätsverhaltens der Bevölkerung in der Region. Zur Analyse des Mobilitätsverhaltens der Bevölkerung in Deutschland wurden in der Vergangenheit auf verschiedenen räumlichen Ebenen mehrere größtenteils voneinander unabhängige Datenerhebungen durchgeführt. Für die Region Frankfurt Rhein-Main besonders relevant sind dabei zum einen die Längsschnitt- bzw. Panelerhebungen des „Rhein-Main-Panels“ (RMP) und des „Deutschen Mobilitätspanels“ (MOP), zum anderen die Querschnittserhebungen der Befragung „Mobilität in Deutschland“ (MiD) und speziell für Frankfurt auch „Mobilität in Städten – SrV“ (SrV).
Ziel dieser Publikation ist es, diese vier unterschiedlichen Erhebungen in einem kurzen Vergleich vorzustellen. Dabei sollen die jeweiligen spezifischen Potentiale, aber auch Einschränkungen aufgezeigt werden, die diese Mobilitätsdatensätze bezüglich der Auswertung und weiteren Nutzung aufweisen. Danach werden in knapper Form mögliche Kombinationsmöglichkeiten dieser Datensätze untereinander, aber auch mit ergänzenden Datenbeständen dargestellt. Anschließend werden die aus den verschiedenen Mobilitätsdatensätzen ermittelten zentralen regionalen Mobilitätskennziffern in einem Vergleich veranschaulicht. Als Abschluss soll schließlich ein kurzer Blick auf mögliche Anwendungsfelder der Mobilitätsdaten in Politik und Planung geworfen werden.
In der Region Rhein-Main steht mit dem Rhein-Main-Mobilitätspanel (RMP) seit dem Jahr 2008 ein Datensatz zur Verfügung, der im Vergleich zu früheren Datensätzen eine verbesserte Beschreibung der regionalen Mobilitätsentwicklung ermöglicht. In dieser Methodenstudie wird überprüft, inwieweit Anschlussmöglichkeiten dieses Datensatzes mit anderen regionalen Datensätzen bestehen. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist somit die Prüfung, inwiefern in der Region Rhein-Main vorliegende Mobilitäts- und andere (insbesondere raumbezogene) Daten mit dem RMP kombiniert werden können, um daraus neue Erkenntnisse und Handlungsoptionen für die Entscheidungsträger vor Ort zu entwickeln. Im Rahmen der Studie werden sowohl ein Vergleich der Stichprobenzusammensetzung und der Erhebungsmethodik als auch der erfassten Kennziffern durchgeführt und Möglichkeiten zur Kombination mit Raumstrukturdaten überprüft. Weiterhin werden zentrale Mobilitätskennziffern der betrachteten Erhebungen (MiD 2002, 2008; SrV 2008; Deutsches Mobilitätspanel 2002-2008) gegenübergestellt und die Anwendbarkeit des harmonisierten und kombinierten Datensatzes hinsichtlich einer inhaltlichen Fragestellung überprüft.
Since August 2009, German legislation allows for voluntary Say on Pay Votes (SoPV) during Annual General Meetings (AGMs). We examine 1,169 AGMs of all German listed firms with more than 10,000 agenda items over the period 2010-2013 to identify (1) determinants and approval rates of voluntary SoPVs, (2) the effect of voluntary SoPVs on AGM participation, and (3) the effect of SoP on executive compensation. Our data reveals that in the first four years of the voluntary say on pay regime every second firm in our sample has opted for having a SoPV. The propensity for a SoPV increases with firm size, abnormal executive compensation and free float of shares. Indeed, smaller firms with concentrated ownership do not only have a lower propensity for a SoPV, but also show a higher propensity to opt for only limited disclosure of executive compensation. Approval rates of SoPVs are lower than the approval rate for the average AGM agenda item and this effect is stronger in (i) widely held firms as well as in (ii) firms with abnormal executive compensation. Additionally, SoPVs actually can increase AGM participation; however, this result is particularly evident for widely held firms. Finally, we find stronger pay for performance elements within total executive compensation, particularly when the effect of executive compensation is lagged over the years following the vote. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that firms use voluntary SoPV to gain legitimation for executive remuneration policies in firms with low ownership concentration. This is enforced, where (small) shareholders consider executive compensation a part of the agency problem of listed firms, and where (small) shareholders consider SoPVs as a possibility to actively influence corporate decisions, with these decisions leading to a higher degree of alignment between executive management boards and shareholders.
Negative Zinsen auf Einlagen – juristische Hindernisse und ihre wettbewerbspolitischen Auswirkungen
(2015)
Im anhaltenden Niedrigzinsumfeld tun Banken sich schwer damit, die ihnen zur Verfügung gestellte Liquidität einer renditeträchtigen Nachfrage zuzuführen. Darüberhinaus müssen sie auf Liquiditätsüberschüsse, die im Rahmen der Einlagenfazilität des Eurosystems über Nacht bei den nationalen Zentralbanken der Eurozone deponiert werden, Strafzinsen entrichtet. Vor diesem Hintergrund könnten Banken durch negative Einlagenzinsen das Anliegen verfolgen, die Nachfrage nach Aufbewahrung von (Sicht)Einlagen zu verringern. Einer solchen Strategie stehen aber aus juristischer Sicht Hindernisse entgegen, soweit der beschriebene Paradigmenwechsel auch im Rahmen existierender Kundenbeziehungen einseitig vorgenommen werden soll. Die rechtlichen Hürden sind weder Ausdruck einer realitätsfernen Haarspalterei, noch eines verbraucherschützenden Furors. Vielmehr ermöglichen sie privaten und gewerblichen Bankkunden, im Zeitpunkt der angestrebten Zinsanpassung bewusst über die Verwendung ihrer liquiden Mittel zu entscheiden.
We propose a multivariate dynamic intensity peaks-over-threshold model to capture extreme events in a multivariate time series of returns. The random occurrence of extreme events exceeding a threshold is modeled by means of a multivariate dynamic intensity model allowing for feedback effects between the individual processes. We propose alternative specifications of the multivariate intensity process using autoregressive conditional intensity and Hawkes-type specifications. Likewise, temporal clustering of the size of exceedances is captured by an autoregressive multiplicative error model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. We allow for spillovers between both the intensity processes and the process of marks. The model is applied to jointly model extreme returns in the daily returns of three major stock indexes. We find strong empirical support for a temporal clustering of both the occurrence of extremes and the size of exceedances. Moreover, significant feedback effects between both types of processes are observed. Backtesting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts show that the proposed model does not only produce a good in-sample fit but also reliable out-of-sample predictions. We show that the inclusion of temporal clustering of the size of exceedances and feedback with the intensity thereof results in better forecasts of VaR and ES.
Research on interbank networks and systemic importance is starting to recognise that the web of exposures linking banks balance sheets is more complex than the single-layer-of-exposure paradigm. We use data on exposures between large European banks broken down by both maturity and instrument type to characterise the main features of the multiplex structure of the network of large European banks. This multiplex network presents positive correlated multiplexity and a high similarity between layers, stemming both from standard similarity analyses as well as a core-periphery analyses of the different layers. We propose measures of systemic importance that fit the case in which banks are connected through an arbitrary number of layers (be it by instrument, maturity or a combination of both). Such measures allow for a decomposition of the global systemic importance index for any bank into the contributions of each of the sub-networks, providing a useful tool for banking regulators and supervisors. We use the dataset of exposures between large European banks to illustrate the proposed measures.
This contribution1 is framed within the field of cultural studies and migration and ethnic relations, trying to examine how the Italian American experience has been imaginatively (re)created and received. It will entail an interdisciplinary approach about the cultural and literary analysis of the Italian diaspora in the United States, from a gender perspective that recovers the voice and historical presence of women as has been transmitted in the arts and critical methods. Focusing on the media and literary representations that deal with Italian migration to the United States since the last decades of the 19th century, their welcome or later development until our days, I make particular reference to a community mainly conceived in the masculine, as major receptions and persistent stereotypes about family relations and ethnicity attest. I will analyse, at the same time, the existence of other works that either contest or balance that cultural and gender stereotyping of the Italian American experience or community.
In this paper we assemble an annual data set on broad and narrow money, prices, real economic activity and interest rates in Ireland from a variety of sources for the period 1933-2012. We discuss in detail how the data set is constructed and what assumptions we have made to do so. Furthermore, we estimate a simple SVAR model to provide some empirical evidence on the behaviour of these time series. Money supply shocks appear to be the most important drivers of both money and prices. Interest rate shocks, which capture monetary policy, play an important role driving output and, of course, interest rates. The GDP shocks, which raise prices, seem of less importance.
We present an accessible narrative of the Turkish economy since its great 2001 crisis. We broadly survey economic developments and pay particular attention to monetary policy. The data suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey was a strong inflation targeter early in this period but began to pay less attention to inflation after 2009. Loss of the strong nominal anchor is visible in the break we estimate in Taylor-type rules as well as in asset prices. We also argue that recent discrete jumps in Turkish asset prices, especially the exchange value of the lira, are due more to domestic factors. In the post-2009 period the Central Bank was able to stabilize expectations and asset prices when it chose to do so, but this was the exception rather than the rule.
This paper studies the linkage between international male migration and changes on land inheritance patterns in rural Oaxaca (Mexico). Land inheritance is a long-term exchange between parents and male adult children in Oaxaca: sons are bequeathed with land as long as they provide for their parents (and their wives care for their in-laws) while daughters are excluded from the family patrimony. Drawing on theoretical sample and 37 in depth interviews, this paper argues that intergenerational solidarity based on the parent-son alliance through inheritance is breaking down due to the uncertainty of men´s migration project along with the increase in the fallback position of wives, who may refuse to take care of elderly in-laws. Other alliances emerge instead: parents try to build new alliances with their daughters, bequeathing them agricultural and building plots. However, these new alliances and inheritance shifts are neither a heterogeneous process nor an automatic change and several family and social dimensions must be included to understand the different outcomes.
Debates about climate-induced migratory movements – and their possible links to instability and conflict – along with the discussion on migration flows across the Mediterranean Sea frequently highlight the West African Sahel as a region of concern. However, findings from recent empirical research on Sahelian regions in Mali and Senegal suggest no evidence for increasing population movements towards Europe as a direct result of environmental stress and climate change. It is the patterns of migration that are changing and not so much the volume. A closer look at the social-ecological conditions of migration in the Sahel allows for an alternative characterization of the problem dynamics. It reveals a rich and comprehensive picture of mobility and the importance of climate and environment in this respect, and identifies starting points for policy options.
This paper analyzes sovereign risk shift-contagion, i.e. positive and significant changes in the propagation mechanisms, using bond yield spreads for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing the use of two econometric approaches based on quantile regressions (standard quantile regression and Bayesian quantile regression with heteroskedasticity) we find that the propagation of shocks in euro's bond yield spreads shows almost no presence of shift-contagion. All the increases in correlation we have witnessed over the last years come from larger shocks propagated with higher intensity across Europe.
This paper studies the life cycle consumption-investment-insurance problem of a family. The wage earner faces the risk of a health shock that significantly increases his probability of dying. The family can buy long-term life insurance that can only be revised at significant costs, which makes insurance decisions sticky. Furthermore, a revision is only possible as long as the insured person is healthy. A second important feature of our model is that the labor income of the wage earner is unspanned. We document that the combination of unspanned labor income and the stickiness of insurance decisions reduces the long-term insurance demand significantly. This is because an income shock induces the need to reduce the insurance coverage, since premia become less affordable. Since such a reduction is costly and families anticipate these potential costs, they buy less protection at all ages. In particular, young families stay away from long-term life insurance markets altogether. Our results are robust to adding short-term life insurance, annuities and health insurance.
We offer evidence of a new stylized feature of corporate financing decisions: the tendency of managers to rely more on debt financing when earnings prospects are poor. We term this 'leaning against the wind' and consider three possible explanations: market timing, precautionary financing, and 'making the numbers'. We find no evidence in favor of the first two hypotheses, and provisionally accept the 'making the numbers' hypothesis that managers who are under pressure because of unrealistically optimistic earnings expectations by analysts and deteriorating real opportunities, will rely more heavily on debt financing to boost earnings per share and return on equity.
Estudio de la producción científica sobre la Escuela de Salamanca en los últimos años y perspectivas de futuro. Se plantea la dificultad de delimitación temporal de la Escuela y se propone la ampliación de su ámbito de estudio, no sólo a los temas tradicionales como la teología (moral, el problema del mal, la polémica De auxiliis), el derecho (el derecho natural y los derechos humanos, la soberanía, la guerra justa,…) y la economía (la propiedad privada, el dinero, el valor y el precio, el interés), sino también a problemas científicos sobre el espacio, el tiempo y otros.
El siguiente artículo presenta una reconstrucción del debate acerca de la condición teológico-política de los indios americanos en el siglo XVI. Se concentra, en particular, en uno de los elementos presentes en una controversia compleja: las opiniones sobre el paganismo de los pueblos "descubiertos" en América y en Asia. Luego de analizar las condenas por "idolatría" de los indios que encontramos en escritos de cronistas como López de Gómara o Fernández de Oviedo, se resumen los argumentos elaborados por maestros importantes de la Universidad de Salamanca (De Paz, Vitoria, Soto) para rechazar la forma confusa en la que estaban siendo planteados los dilemas teológicos surgidos tras el descubrimiento de los nuevos pueblos paganos. El trabajo hace énfasis también en la importancia del papel jugado por los teólogos salamantinos en un proceso más amplio de conceptualización de la naturaleza "inocente" de las "idolatrías" de los nativos americanos del que otros teólogos misioneros (Las Casas, Zumárraga,…) también fueron partícipes, aunque recurriendo a otros métodos y argumentos. Las secciones finales están dedicadas al estudio de la consolidación de los argumentos forjados por los teólogos salmantinos en el continuo debate sobre la evangelización y la dominación española sobre las Indias. Se retoman, en concreto, algunos escritos de dos figuras destacadas: Alonso de la Veracruz y Domingo de Salazar, para mostrar cómo, bajo la influencia de Vitoria y Soto, sus profesores en la Universidad de Salamanca, Veracruz y Salazar adaptaron algunas de sus ideas a los contextos misioneros de América y Asia.
Anleihen werden in der Regel in zahlreiche Teilschuldverschreibungen aufgespalten und diese an verschiedene Investoren verkauft. Dies begründet, der Zahl der umlaufenden Teilschuldverschreibungen entsprechend, jeweils unterschiedliche Schuldverhältnisse zwischen dem Emittenten und dem jeweiligen Investor. Hält ein Investor mehrere Teilschuldverschreibungen, so entstehen dementsprechend mehrere rechtlich voneinander zu unterscheidende Schuldverhältnisse mit gleichem Inhalt.1 Diese können jeweils ein unterschiedliches rechtliches Schicksal haben, z. B. getrennt voneinander übertragen werden. Sie können auch, von atypischen Gestaltungen abgesehen, je einzeln vom Gläubiger gekündigt werden, wenn die Anleihebedingungen insoweit keine Vorkehrungen treffen. Die folgenden Bemerkungen dazu befassen sich zunächst mit der umstrittenen Frage, ob auch eine Kündigung aus wichtigem Grund seitens eines Gläubigers gemäß §§ 490 Abs. 1, 314 BGB in Betracht kommt (im Folgenden I. - VII.)
Die Gründung der Universität durch jüdische Frankfurter Bürger ermöglichte es, in Frankfurt auch Juden, Liberale und Linke zu berufen. So entstand an der Juristischen Fakultät ein Lehrkörper, der liberalem Ideen sowie damals modernen Materien wie dem Völkerrecht, dem Arbeitsrecht und dem Wirtschaftsrecht gegenüber aufgeschlossen war. Dazu trug besonders die Einbeziehung kenntnisreicher Frankfurter Praktikerjuristen als Lehrbeauftragte und Honorarprofessoren bei. Diese Fakultät wurde 1933 zerschlagen. Nach 1945 konnte der Wiederaufbau mit wenigen Angehörigen der alten Fakultät unterstützt von einigen Neuberu-fungen beginnen. Dabei gaben prominente Persönlichkeiten wie Franz Böhm und Walter Hallstein der neuen Fakultät sofort wieder ein liberales Profil. Bei der Vergrößerung des Lehrkörpers durch Schaffung neuer Lehrstühle und erneute Einbeziehung von Praktikerjuristen bereicherten auch Vertreter moderner Rechtsmaterien die Fakultät. Die Studentenunruhe der Jahre 1968 ff. traf die Fakultät in der Phase eines Generationenwechels. Mit dem Plan einer einphasigen Juristenausbildung nach eigener Konzeption scheiterte der Fachbereich. Stattessen refor-mierte er das Lehrprogramm nach methodischen Kriterien. Die Studierendenzahlen nahmen ständig zu mit einem parallel dazu stetig wachsenden Anteil von Studierenden ausländischer Herkunft. Am Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts besaß der Frankfurter Fachbereich ein methodisch wie inhaltlich modernes, liberales Profil.
Seit einiger Zeit wird die Bedeutung der Kultur auch für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung diskutiert. Zusammenhänge zwischen Kultur und Wirtschaft werden auch auf regionaler Ebene zunehmend thematisiert. Hintergrund für dieses regionale Interesse dürfte sein, dass Regionen trotz oder wegen der Globalisierung eherzunehmende Bedeutung haben. Nicht nur ökonomische,sondern auch nicht‐ökonomische Standort‐ und Wettbewerbsfaktoren sind danach für die regionale Wirtschaft und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit relevant; Kultur ist einer davon. Mit dieser Studie möchten wir einen Diskussionsbeitrag leisten, die Bedeutung (ausgewählter) regionaler Kulturvariabler für die Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit exemplarisch für die beiden Metropolregionen FrankfurtRheinMain und Stuttgart quantitativ zu eruieren. Das erkenntnisleitende Interesse richtetsich auf eine erste Beantwortung folgender Fragen:
* Welche quantitative Bedeutung haben die (ausgewählten) Kulturvariablen für die regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit?
* Bestehen innerhalb einer Region Unterschiede bei der quantitativen Bedeutung dieser Kulturvariablen?
* Bestehen zwischen den beiden Metropolregionen Unterschiede in dieser Bedeutung? ...
Im Wirtschaftsregulierungsrecht treten immer häufiger Mehrpersonenverhältnisse auf: Die Regulierungsentscheidung der Regulierungsbehörde betrifft nicht nur den Adressaten, sondern hat mittelbar auch Wirkungen auf die Ausgestaltung der Wettbewerbsfreiheit der Konkurrenten. Materielles und Verfahrensrecht erlauben aber bisher kaum eine Beteiligung der Interessen des Dritten. Verwaltungsrecht und Verwaltungswissenschaft sind aufgefordert, hierfür Problemkonstellationen zu identifizieren und Lösungsvor-schläge zu unterbreiten.
Der Beitrag analysiert zunächst Dreiecksverhältnisse mit besonderem Blick auf das Wirtschaftsverwaltungsrecht und schlägt als einen möglichen Weg zur Bewältigung daraus resultierender Probleme in Instrumenten der Kooperation vor, wie sie etwa im Gesundheitsrecht mit dem Gemeinsamen Bundesausschuss (GBA) existieren, auch wenn dieses Rechtsgebiet (zu Unrecht) als wenig als wegweisend wahrgenommen wird.
Klimaschutz- und Anpassungsmaßnahmen : Zielkonflikte und Synergien mit dem Biodiversitätsschutz
(2015)
Der Klimawandel ist eine der größten Herausforderungen der Gegenwart und seine Auswirkungen auf Natur, Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft werden vielfach untersucht. Minderungs- wie auch Anpassungsmaßnahmen sind somit ein wichtiges Handlungsfeld geworden. Während der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Biodiversität bereits seit Längerem Gegenstand wissenschaftlicher Untersuchungen ist, rücken nun auch mögliche Folgen von Klimaschutz- und Anpassungsmaßnahmen auf die biologische Vielfalt in den Fokus der Forschung: So ist eine generelle Treibhausgasreduktion zwar prinzipiell förderlich, jedoch kann die Umsetzung der hierfür notwendigen Maßnahmen zu Zielkonflikten mit dem Biodiversitätsschutz führen. Gleichwohl gibt es Herangehensweisen, die Synergien beider Bereiche erkennen lassen.
Das Papier bietet einen Überblick über Maßnahmen des Klimaschutzes und der Klimawandelanpassung in den Bereichen Wald- und Forstwirtschaft, Moore, Landwirtschaft, nachwachsende Rohstoffe, Fließgewässer, Küsten und Meere. Diese werden mit Blick auf ihre möglichen (sowohl förderlichen als auch abträglichen) Auswirkungen auf die Biodiversität vorgestellt. Mit dieser problemorientierten Diskursfeldanalyse soll ein Beitrag geleistet werden, potentielle Zielkonflikte von Klima- und Biodiversitätsschutz zu erkennen und Synergien zu fördern.
Der Beitrag hat die Keilschriftrechtsgeschichte als rechtshistorische Teildisziplin zum Gegenstand. Bei ihrer wissenschaftsgeschichtlichen Einordnung zeigt sich eine charakteristische Prägung durch den methodischen Ansatz der historischen Rechtsvergleichung wie auch durch eine stark interdisziplinäre Ausrichtung. Stand und Perspektiven der von juristischer Seite betriebenen Keilschriftrechtsgeschichte werden anhand von aktuellen Forschungsvorhaben im Rahmen Frankfurter Verbundprojekte exemplarisch beschrieben. Dabei wird deutlich, dass das Fach, nicht zuletzt aufgrund der vorgenannten Prägung, in hohem Maße anschlussfähig an kulturübergreifende Erkenntnisinteressen ist.
No. And not only for the reason you think. In a world with multiple inefficiencies the single policy tool the central bank has control over will not undo all inefficiencies; this is well understood. We argue that the world is better characterized by multiple inefficiencies and multiple policy makers with various objectives. Asking the policy question only in terms of optimal monetary policy effectively turns the central bank into the residual claimant of all policy and gives the other policymakers a free hand in pursuing their own goals. This further worsens the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. The optimal monetary policy literature and the optimal simple rules often labeled flexible inflation targeting assign all of the cyclical policymaking duties to central banks. This distorts the policy discussion and narrows the policy choices to a suboptimal set. We highlight this issue and call for a broader thinking of optimal policies.
This paper studies a two-country production economy with complete and frictionless financial markets and international trade of final goods in which competition in R&D leads to endogenous new firm creation and economic growth. Current monopolists ("incumbents") and potential new firms ("entrants") compete in developing patents domestically. I find that this induces negative spillover in consumption, i.e. home country's consumption decreases in response to positive productivity shocks in the foreign country. Second, there is positive spillover in R&D expenditures, i.e. home country's R&D expenditures increase in response to positive foreign productivity shocks, which is consistent with empirical evidence on international technology diffusion. Furthermore, the stylized fact in international macroeconomics that the cross-country correlation of consumption growth is significantly lower than the one of output growth is explained by the model. Fourth, net exports are negatively correlated with output as in the data. Fifth, the model matches the high comovement of the risk-free rates and stock returns across countries. Finally, the model produces a positive value premium.
Empirical credit demand analysis undertaken at the aggregate level obscures potential behavioral heterogeneity between various borrowing sectors. Looking at disaggregated data and analyzing bank loans to non-financial companies, to financial companies, to households for consumption and for house purchases separately with respect to a common set of macroeconomic determinants may facilitate more accurate empirical relationships and more reliable insights for economic policy. Using quarterly Euro area panel data between 2003 and 2013, empirical evidence for heterogeneity in borrowing behavior across sectors and the credit cycle with respect to interest rates, output and house prices is found. The results motivate sector-specific, counter-cyclical capital requirements.
The interbank market is important for the efficient functioning of the financial system, transmission of monetary policy and therefore ultimately the real economy. In particular, it facilitates banks' liquidity management. This paper aims at extending the literature which views interbank markets as mutual liquidity insurance mechanism by taking into account persistence of liquidity shocks. Following a theory of long-term interbank funding a financial system which is modeled as a micro-founded agent based complex network interacting with a real economic sector is developed. The model features interbank funding as an over-the-counter phenomenon and realistically replicates financial system phenomena of network formation, monetary policy transmission and endogenous money creation. The framework is used to carry out an optimal policy analysis in which the policymaker maximizes real activity via choosing the optimal interest rate in a trade-off between loan supply and financial fragility. It is shown that the interbank market renders the financial system more efficient relative to a setting without mutual insurance against persistent liquidity shocks and therefore plays a crucial role for welfare.
This paper investigates systemic risk in the insurance industry. We first analyze the systemic contribution of the insurance industry vis-à-vis other industries by applying 3 measures, namely the linear Granger causality test, conditional value at risk and marginal expected shortfall, on 3 groups, namely banks, insurers and non-financial companies listed in Europe over the last 14 years. We then analyze the determinants of the systemic risk contribution within the insurance industry by using balance sheet level data in a broader sample. Our evidence suggests that i) the insurance industry shows a persistent systemic relevance over time and plays a subordinate role in causing systemic risk compared to banks, and that ii) within the industry, those insurers which engage more in non-insurance-related activities tend to pose more systemic risk. In addition, we are among the first to provide empirical evidence on the role of diversification as potential determinant of systemic risk in the insurance industry. Finally, we confirm that size is also a significant driver of systemic risk, whereas price-to-book ratio and leverage display counterintuitive results.
This paper investigates systemic risk in the insurance industry. We first analyze the systemic contribution of the insurance industry vis-à-vis other industries by applying 3 measures, namely the linear Granger causality test, conditional value at risk and marginal expected shortfall, on 3 groups, namely banks, insurers and non-financial companies listed in Europe over the last 14 years. We then analyze the determinants of the systemic risk contribution within the insurance industry by using balance sheet level data in a broader sample. Our evidence suggests that i) the insurance industry shows a persistent systemic relevance over time and plays a subordinate role in causing systemic risk compared to banks, and that ii) within the industry, those insurers which engage more in non-insurance-related activities tend to pose more systemic risk. In addition, we are among the first to provide empirical evidence on the role of diversification as potential determinant of systemic risk in the insurance industry. Finally, we confirm that size is also a significant driver of systemic risk, whereas price-to-book ratio and leverage display counterintuitive results.
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of gasoline price forecasts are feasible in real time at horizons up to two years, as are substantial increases in directional accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the EIA gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable.