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Modeling short-term interest rates as following regime-switching processes has become increasingly popular. Theoretically, regime-switching models are able to capture rational expectations of infrequently occurring discrete events. Technically, they allow for potential time-varying stationarity. After discussing both aspects with reference to the recent literature, this paper provides estimations of various univariate regime-switching specifications for the German three-month money market rate and bivariate specifications additionally including the term spread. However, the main contribution is a multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for state-dependence. Particularly, the informational content of the term spread for future short rate changes can be exploited optimally within a multivariate regime-switching framework.
This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover, our simple univariate model turns out to be a filter that transforms accurately term spread changes into turning point predictions. The term structure is confirmed to be a reliable recession indicator. However, the results of probit estimations show that the markov-switching filter does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the spread.
Methodik: Die in dieser Arbeit entwickelte flowzytometrische Methode ist aufgrund der guten Korrelation zur gängigen Europium Immune Release Methode zur Bestimmung der NK-Zell-, bzw. CD 8 , zytotoxischen T-Lymphozyten Aktivität gut geeignet. Der geringe Zeit- und Kostenaufwand sprechen für die Anwendung dieser Methode. Enzympräparation: Die in dieser Arbeit verwendete Enzympräparation kann die NK-Zell bzw. CD 8 , zytotoxischen T-Lymphozyten Aktivität signifikant steigern. Eine signifikante Mehrfachstimulation ist ebenfalls möglich. Möglicherweise beruht dieser Effekt auf einer erhöhten Freisetzung von TNFa durch die Effektorzellen, die die Targetzellen zum (programmierten) Zelltod bringen. Ferner wird über die Freisetzung weiterer Zytokine berichtet, die eine Stimulierung der Effektorzellen bewirken (durch IL1b und IL6). Immunkomplex gebundene TNFa Moleküle können durch die proteolytische Aktivität freigesetzt werden. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf eine unspezifische Veränderung der Membranbestandteile der Effektorzellen hin, welche eine Freisetzung von Zytokinen bewirkt. Ferner kann die proteolytische Aktivität der Enzympräparate verschiedene Immunkomplexe und sogenannte Blockingfaktoren auflösen. Fazit: Eine signifikante und konzentrationsabhängig immunstimulierende Wirksamkeit der Enzyme ist gegeben. Diskussionswürdig dürfte hier nur die enterale Resorption bzw. Persorption sein (s.Kap I). Die parenterale Applikation ist wegen einer anaphylaktischen Reaktion risikoreich. Denkbar wäre eine ex vivo "Therapie" isolierter humaner Lymphozyten mit anschließender Wiederzufuhr in den Kreislauf. Die Aktivierenden Konzentrationen für die Enzyme liegen im Bereich von 20 bis 160 µg/ml bei einer Einfachstimulation. Bei höheren Konzentrationen als 320 µg/ml beginnt der toxische Bereich. Bei der Mehrfachstimulation von Lymphozyten liegt der aktivierende Bereich zwischen 10 bis 80 µg/ml, wobei die höheren Konzentrationen toxisch wirken. Retinoide: Eine konzentrationsabhängige signifikante Steigerung der NK-Zell- bzw. CD 8 , zytotoxischen T-Lymphozyten Aktivität ist gegeben. Die NK Zellaktivität konnte bei Konzentrationen von 10 8 bzw. 10 6 M mit Retinsäure und Retinol gesteigert werden, die Aktivität von CD 8 zytotoxischen T-Lymphozyten hingegen nur durch Retinsäure. Das Lösungsmittel DMSO bewirkte keine signifikante Aktivitätsänderungen. Diskutiert wird hier eine erhöhte Expression des IL2-Rezeptors sowie die des CD3 Rezeptors, als Ursache für die Aktivitätssteigerung führen soll. Der Fas-Ligand hingegen wird herabreguliert, was eine "Selbsttötung" der Effektorzellen verhindert. Die vermehrte Produktion von Zytokinen (IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10 und IFNgamma), deren Gehalt die im Überstand Retinol behandelter Zellen zunimmt, kann ebenfalls zur Aktivitätssteigerung führen.
Bei den im Rahmen des Forschungsverbundes erfolgten faunistischen Untersuchungen stand die Charakterisierung der unterschiedlichen, vor allem aber der wertvollen Biotoptypen der Braunkohlenfolgelandschaft mit Hilfe der dort lebenden Tierarten bzw. Artengemeinschaften im Vordergrund. Es wurden Tiergruppen bearbeitet, die zum einen ein hohes indikatorisches Potential besitzen, zum anderen unterschiedliche ökologische Hierachieebenen repräsentieren. Eine Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte zumeist auf der Ebene der Biotoptypengruppen (siehe Heyde; Jakob; Köck; Reuter im gleichen Heft).
In dieser Arbeit wird die Begleitflora zu den nicht-marinen Muschelfunden des Piesberges bei Osnabrück, worüber in Band 24 dieser Mitteilungen berichtet wurde, näher untersucht und dargestellt. Die nicht-marinen Muscheln wurden z.T. direkt aus dem Hangenden des Flözes Dreibänke, zum anderen und grössten Teil aus einer nahegelegenen Halde geborgen. Aufgrund des Vorkommens von Neuropteris dussartii Laveine, Sphenopteris coemansii Andrae und Alethopteris davreuxii (Brongniart) Goeppert kann festgestellt werden, dass das Haldenmaterial aus dem untersten Teil des Westfal D stammt.
We study the effects of strict conservation laws and the problem of negative contributions to final momentum distribution during the freeze out through 3-dimensional hypersurfaces with space-like normal. We study some suggested solutions for this problem, and demonstrate it on one example. PACS: 24.10.Nz, 25.75.-q
This paper analyses two reasons why inflation may interfere with price adjustment so as to create inefficiencies in resource allocation at low rates of inflation. The first argument is that the higher the rate of inflation the lower the likelihood that downward nominal rigidities are binding (the Tobin argument) which implies a non-linear Phillips-curve. The second argument is that low inflation strengthens nominal price rigidities and thus impairs the flexibility of the price system resulting in a less efficient resource allocation. It is argued that inflation can be too low from a welfare point of view due to the presence of nominal rigidities, but the quantitative importance is an open question.
This study examines the particularities of multilingual discourse, based on the example of recorded conversations in a trilingual family in Canada. It combines two different fields of linguistic research: multilingualism and conversation analysis. The study of multilingualism has developed into a popular field of linguistic research over the past two decades. In general, it focuses on bilingualism as a social and individual phenomenon, and in particular on the alternation between two languages in the speech of bilinguals. For this alternation, the term code-switching is widely used. Usually, the term refers to language alternation both between sentences and within sentence boundaries. From a sociolinguistic perspective code-switching is often interpreted as a means of signaling group membership in bilingual communities, whereas grammatical analyses examine how morphosyntactic units from different languages are combined (and can be combined) within one sentence. Auer (1998: 3) suggests the study of the conversational structure of code-switching as a third perspective on bilingual language usage, one that he claims has been widely neglected by linguistic research in the past. In particular, those cases of language alternation between utterances (sentences) but within the same conversation cannot be described adequately from either a macro-sociolinguistic or a morphosyntactic perspective.
Finding the peripheries : sovereignty and colonialism in nineteenth-century international law
(1999)
The two-proton correlation function at midrapidity from Pb+Pb central collisions at 158 AGeV has been measured by the NA49 experiment. The results are compared to model predictions from static thermal Gaussian proton source distributions and transport models RQMD and VENUS. An effective proton source size is determined by minimizing CHI-square/ndf between the correlation functions of the data and those calculated for the Gaussian sources, yielding 3.85 +-0.15(stat.) +0.60-0.25(syst.) fm. Both the RQMD and the VENUS model are consistent with the data within the error in the correlation peak region.
We present first data on event-by-event fluctuations in the average transverse momentum of charged particles produced in Pb+Pb collisions at the CERN SPS. This measurement provides previously unavailable information allowing sensitive tests of microscopic and thermodynamic collision models and to search for fluctuations expected to occur in the vicinity of the predicted QCD phase transition. We find that the observed variance of the event-by-event average transverse momentum is consistent with independent particle production modified by the known two-particle correlations due to quantum statistics and final state interactions and folded with the resolution of the NA49 apparatus. For two specific models of non-statistical fluctuations in transverse momentum limits are derived in terms of fluctuation amplitude. We show that a significant part of the parameter space for a model of isospin fluctuations predicted as a consequence of chiral symmetry restoration in a non-equilibrium scenario is excluded by our measurement.
Net proton and negative hadron spectra for central \PbPb collisions at 158 GeV per nucleon at the CERN SPS were measured and compared to spectra from lighter systems. Net baryon distributions were derived from those of net protons, utilizing model calculations of isospin contributions as well as data and model calculations of strange baryon distributions. Stopping (rapidity shift with respect to the beam) and mean transverse momentum \meanpt of net baryons increase with system size. The rapidity density of negative hadrons scales with the number of participant nucleons for nuclear collisions, whereas their \meanpt is independent of system size. The \meanpt dependence upon particle mass and system size is consistent with larger transverse flow velocity at midrapidity for \PbPb compared to \SS central collisions.
Book Reviews
(1999)
M. P. Marcelli & T. Ahti (eds.) 1998. Recollecting Edvard August Vainio. CETESB, Sao Paulo, 188 pp (A5). Price US$ 30.00 + postage US$ 14.00 = US$ 44.00.
M. P. Marcelli & M. R. D. Seaward (eds.) 1998. Lichenology in Latin America - history, current knowledge and application. CETESB, Sao Paulo, 179 pp (A4). Price US$ 40.00 + postage US$ 14.00 = US$ 54.00.
An annotated checklist of the lichens of Hong Kong, based on all available literature reports and specimens, including those recently collected by the authors, is presented. In total, 261 species are reported, of which 176 are new records for Hong Kong, 132 of which are new for China, 43 are new for East Asia, and 27 are new for Asia. The lichen vegetation is mainly tropical, as is shown by the distribution patterns of the identified species: 53 species are cosmopolitan, 40 northern temperate, 122 pantropical, 17 paleotropical and 29 endemic to tropical East Asia. With regard to substrata, 129 species are corticolous, 148 saxicolous, 17 foliicolous and 19 terricolous. Four species are newly described: Anisomeridium conorostratum Aptroot, A. hydei Aptroot, Caloplaca pulicarioides Aptroot and Placidiopsis poronioides Aptroot. The flora is rather poor in species; for example, no Caliciales have been found. In the past, the numbers of species of several groups such as the Graphidaceae, Heterodermia and Xanthoparmelia have been overestimated, whereas few pyrenocarps have been reported. The flora of wet granitic outcrops is surprisingly well developed in Hong Kong. Although not a single Peltula species was reported before, six species were identified, including one that was previously only known from Africa. In addition, several other cyanophilic genera are present, such as Euopsis, Psorotichia, Pyrenopsis and, most unexpectedly, Vestergrenopsis, each with one species. A comparison between old and recent records shows that many Lobarion species are now extinct. The drastic decline of species of the Lobarion vegetation indicates that air pollution and other habitat disturbances, mainly deforestation, to which these species are very sensitive, are seriously threatening the lichen biodiversity of Hong Kong.
The subunit composition of the mitochondrial ATP synthase from Saccharomyces cerevisiae was analyzed using blue native gel electrophoresis and high resolution SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. We report here the identification of a novel subunit of molecular mass of 6,687 Da, termed subunit j (Su j). An open reading frame of 127 base pairs (ATP18), which encodes for Su j, was identified on chromosome XIII. Su j does not display sequence similarity to ATP synthase subunits from other organisms. Data base searches, however, identified a potential homolog from Schizosaccharomyces pombe with 51% identity to Su j of S. cerevisiae. Su j, a small protein of 59 amino acid residues, has the characteristics of an integral inner membrane protein with a single transmembrane segment. Deletion of the ATP18 gene encoding Su j led to a strain (Deltasu j) completely deficient in oligomycin-sensitive ATPase activity and unable to grow on nonfermentable carbon sources. The presence of Su j is required for the stable expression of subunits 6 and f of the F0 membrane sector. In the absence of Su j, spontaneously arising rho- cells were observed that lacked also ubiquinol-cytochrome c reductase and cytochrome c oxidase activities. We conclude that Su j is a novel and essential subunit of yeast ATP synthase.
Verbote erregen Neugier und verstärken die Nachfrage, das mußte auch die vormärzliche österreichische Zensur zur Kenntnis nehmen. Immer wieder ist vom "Einschwärzen", d.h. vom Schmuggel durch Privatpersonen die Rede, aber auch die Buchhändler versuchten, den Wünschen ihrer Kunden nach im Ausland erschienenen, in Österreich aber verbotenen Werken gerecht zu werden. Verschiedene im Allgemeinen Verwaltungsarchiv erhaltene Akten der für die Zensur zuständigen Polizeihofstelle dokumentieren die – nicht immer erfolgreichen – Bemühungen, die ausgesprochenen Verbote auch durchzusetzen. Selbstverständlich wurden alle aus dem Ausland für Wiener Buchhändler eingelangten Bücherballen genauestens auf verbotene Titel hin durchsucht. Damit nicht genug, visitierte man gelegentlich auch die Geschäftslokale.