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Im Schatten der Lowflation
(2014)
Im Jahr 2013 betrug der Anstieg des harmonisierten Konsumentenpreisindex im Euroraum 1,4 %. Vor dem Hintergrund der Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB überrascht diese Entwicklung. Alfons Weichenrieder erläutert wie der starke strukturelle Anpassungsbedarf in den meisten Euroländern von höheren Inflationsunterschieden profitieren könnte. Er weist auf die Gefahren einer längeren Niedrigzinsphase für Banken, Lebensversicherung und die Reduzierung der Staatsschulden hin. Da die traditionellen geldpolitischen Mittel weitgehend ausgereizt sind, wird die quantitative Lockerung als Instrument zur Bekämpfung einer Deflation nicht mehr ausgeschlossen. Im Falle eines Ankaufprogrammes wird es auf einen glaubwürdigem Regelrahmen ankommen.
Da Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) nicht den Beschränkungen der deutschen Schuldenbremse unterliegen, können diese der Politik als Mittel dienen, Lasten in die Zukunft zu verschieben, ohne dabei den Verschuldungsgrad zu erhöhen. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschreibt Vor- und Nachteile von PPP-Konstrukten im Rahmen der öffentlichen Auftragsvergabe. Alfons Weichenrieder argumentiert, dass bei der Wahl von PPP-Instrumenten die Effizienz der Bereitstellung von öffentlicher Infrastruktur und Dienstleistungen im Vordergrund stehen sollte. Die Budgetregeln könnten so angepasst werden, dass das Motiv der Schuldenverschleierung nicht vordergründig die Wahl von PPP-Konstrukten bestimmt.
Digitalization expands the possibility for corporations to reduce taxes, mainly, but not exclusively, by allowing improved planning where profits can be shifted. Against this background, the European Commission and several countries emphatically demand and design new tax instruments. However, a selective turning away from internationally accepted principles of international taxation will bring up more questions than solutions. While there are good reasons to think about a fundamental regime switch in international corporate taxation, there are also good arguments for not turning to ad hoc measures that selectively target the relatively small market of Google and Facebook and raise only negligible tax revenues.
Das ursprüngliche Ziel des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz war die Verringerung der Emissionen. Eigentlich hat die Politik bereits ein Instrument an der Hand, das dieses Ziel fokussiert und kostensparend erreichen kann: den Handel mit CO2-Zertifikaten. Der Autor argumentiert, dass das Nebeneinander von CO2-Handel und EEG höchst unproduktiv ist und schleunigst beendet werden sollte. Ein plausibleres Argument für den politischen Erfolg des EEG und das derzeitige Herumdoktern im Detail ist, dass die Politik mit dem EEG Industriepolitik betreiben und die Kosten auf zukünftige Parlamente und Generationen überwälzen kann.
Greece: threatening recovery
(2015)
Despite the catastrophic phase between 2008 and the end of 2014, much of a previously unsustainable development has been corrected in Greece and there are clear signs that the deterioration came to a halt in 2014. But what is publicly known about the priorities of the newly elected Syriza government suggests that they may be going largely into the wrong direction.
In Absatz 3 des Artikel 136 des Vertrags über die Arbeitsweise der EU (AEUV) wurde für die Verwendung von ESM Geldern festgelegt, dass diese nur dann zur Gewährung von Finanzhilfen verwendet werden dürfen, wenn „... dies unabdingbar ist, um die Stabilität des Euro-Währungsgebiets insgesamt zu wahren." Im vorliegenden Artikel argumentiert Alfons Weichenrieder, dass die nach dem griechischen Referendum entstandene Situation, die Stabilität des “Euro-Währungsgebiets insgesamt" nicht bedroht, so dass die Vergabe von neuen Krediten, zumal diese voraussichtlich unter weichen und im Zweifel nicht durchsetzbaren Auflagen vergeben würden, ein offensichtlicher Verstoß gegen die Grundlagen des ESM wäre.
Die deutsche Steuerpolitik kombiniert hohe Steuersätze mit zahlreichen Ausnahmen. Das reißt Gerechtigkeitslücken, lenkt Investitionen in die falschen Zwecke und verkompliziert das Steuersystem mitunter bis zur Unkenntlichkeit. Bei der Erbschaftsteuer ist dies besonders augenfällig. Der Versuch mit minimalinvasiven Korrekturen Konsistenz in die Erbschaft- und Schenkungsteuer zu bringen ist fast zwangsläufig zum Scheitern verurteilt. Vieles spricht stattdessen für deutlich abgesenkte Steuersätze und eine gleichzeitige Abschaffung der Vergünstigungen für Betriebsvermögen.
This policy letter collects elementary economic statistics and provides a very basic look on Russian public finances (i) to inform the reader’s opinion on a possible planning process behind the war against Ukraine and (ii) to discuss prospects of an energy embargo and its capability to affect the stability of the Russian economy.
This note argues that in a situation of an inelastic natural gas supply a restrictive monetary policy in the euro zone could reduce the energy bill and therefore has additional merits. A more hawkish monetary policy may be able to indirectly use monopsony power on the gas market. The welfare benefits of such a policy are diluted to the extent that some of the supply (approximately 10 percent) comes from within the euro zone, which may give rise to distributional concerns.
Inflation ist ein Konstrukt. Sie wird von unterschiedlichen Akteuren unterschiedlich wahrgenommen. Zum Teil passiert dies, weil Warenkörbe differieren, zum Teil weil Erwartungen unterschiedlich gebildet werden. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Heterogenität der Inflation und ihrer Wahrnehmung und was dies für die Zielgröße der Zentralbankpolitik bedeutet.
This paper studies the distributional consequences of a systematic variation in expenditure shares and prices. Using European Union Household Budget Surveys and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data, we construct household-specific price indices and reveal the existence of a pro-rich inflation in Europe. Particularly, over the period 2001-15, the consumption bundles of the poorest deciles in 25 European countries have, on average, become 10.5 percentage points more expensive than those of the richest decile. We find that ignoring the differential inflation across the distribution underestimates the change in the Gini (based on consumption expenditure) by up to 0.03 points. Cross-country heterogeneity in this change is large enough to alter the inequality ranking of numerous countries. The average inflation effect we detect is almost as large as the change in the standard Gini measure over the period of interest.
The pressure on tax haven countries to engage in tax information exchange shows first effects on capital markets. Empirical research suggests that investors do react to information exchange and partially withdraw from previous secrecy jurisdictions that open up to information exchange. While some of the economic literature emphasizes possible positive effects of tax havens, the present paper argues that proponents of positive effects may have started from questionable premises, in particular when it comes to the effects that tax havens have for emerging markets like China and India.
The paper uses fiscal reaction functions for a panel of euro-area countries to investigate whether euro membership has reduced the responsiveness of countries to shocks in the level of inherited debt compared to the period prior to succession to the euro. While we find some evidence for such a loss in prudence, the results are not robust to changes in the specification, such as an exclusion of Greece from the panel. This suggests that the current debt problems may result to a large extent from preexisting debt levels prior to entry or from a larger need for fiscal prudence in a common currency, while an adverse change in the fiscal reaction functions for most countries does not apply.
Central banks have faced a succession of crises over the past years as well as a number of structural factors such as a transition to a greener economy, demographic developments, digitalisation and possibly increased onshoring. These suggest that the future inflation environment will be different from the one we know. Thus uncertainty about important macroeconomic variables and, in particular, inflation dynamics will likely remain high.
FIFO is the most prominent queueing strategy due to its simplicity and the fact that it only works with local information. Its analysis within the adversarial queueing theory however has shown, that there are networks that are not stable under the FIFO protocol, even at arbitrarily low rate. On the other hand there are networks that are universally stable, i.e., they are stable under every greedy protocol at any rate r < 1. The question as to which networks are stable under the FIFO protocol arises naturally. We offer the first polynomial time algorithm for deciding FIFO stability and simple-path FIFO stability of a directed network, answering an open question posed in [1, 4]. It turns out, that there are networks, that are FIFO stable but not universally stable, hence FIFO is not a worst case protocol in this sense. Our characterization of FIFO stability is constructive and disproves an open characterization in [4].
A tontine provides a mortality driven, age-increasing payout structure through the pooling of mortality. Because a tontine does not entail any guarantees, the payout structure of a tontine is determined by the pooling of individual characteristics of tontinists. Therefore, the surrender decision of single tontinists directly affects the remaining members' payouts. Nevertheless, the opportunity to surrender is crucial to the success of a tontine from a regulatory as well as a policyholder perspective. Therefore, this paper derives the fair surrender value of a tontine, first on the basis of expected values, and then incorporates the increasing payout volatility to determine an equitable surrender value. Results show that the surrender decision requires a discount on the fair surrender value as security for the remaining members. The discount intensifies in decreasing tontine size and increasing risk aversion. However, tontinists are less willing to surrender for decreasing tontine size and increasing risk aversion, creating a natural protection against tontine runs stemming from short-term liquidity shocks. Furthermore we argue that a surrender decision based on private information requires a discount on the fair surrender value as well.
The modern tontine: an innovative instrument for longevity risk management in an aging society
(2016)
The changing social, financial and regulatory frameworks, such as an increasingly aging society, the current low interest rate environment, as well as the implementation of Solvency II, lead to the search for new product forms for private pension provision. In order to address the various issues, these product forms should reduce or avoid investment guarantees and risks stemming from longevity, still provide reliable insurance benefits and simultaneously take account of the increasing financial resources required for very high ages. In this context, we examine whether a historical concept of insurance, the tontine, entails enough innovative potential to extend and improve the prevailing privately funded pension solutions in a modern way. The tontine basically generates an age-increasing cash flow, which can help to match the increasing financing needs at old ages. However, the tontine generates volatile cash flows, so that - especially in the context of an aging society - the insurance character of the tontine cannot be guaranteed in every situation. We show that partial tontinization of retirement wealth can serve as a reliable supplement to existing pension products.
Zur Versprachlichung des Raums in Bildergeschichten deutschsprachiger Vor- und Grundschulkinder
(2002)
Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Versprachlichung des Raums in Bildergeschichten deutschsprachiger Vor- und Grundschulkinder. Methodisch fügt sich die Untersuchung in Arbeiten zur Entwicklung der narrativen Kompetenz des Kindes anhand von Bildergeschichten ein, wie sie in neuerer Zeit […] durchgeführt wurden (s. vor allem Berman & Slobin 1994). Hinsichtlich der allgemein-sprachwissenschaftlichen Analyse der Versprachlichung des Raums ist die Arbeit vor allem den typologischen Studien von L. Talmy (1985, 1991) verpflichtet. […] Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, die Rolle der Versprachlichung räumlicher Beziehungen unter zwei Aspekten zu untersuchen: hinsichtlich der Erstellung kohärenten narrativen Diskurses und hinsichtlich der sprachlichen Mittel, mittels derer die Kinder auf statische und dynamische räumliche Beziehungen referieren. Entsprechend der Dreiteilung der Ich-Jetzt-Hier-Origo stellen räumliche Beziehungen neben der Referenz auf Personen und zeitliche Beziehungen einen der drei Bereiche dar, in denen sich textuelle Kohärenz manifestiert. Bei der Versprachlichung des Raums geht es einerseits um Einführung, Beibehaltung und Verschiebung narrativer Orte und andererseits um statische räumliche Befindlichkeiten gegenüber dynamischen räumlichen Ereignissen. […] Die Arbeit gliedert sich in einen theoretischen und einen empirischen Hauptteil.
Der Beitrag ruft die zentralen Überlegungen Hugo Sinzheimers zur sozialen Selbstbestimmung, zur Arbeitsverfassung, zum Arbeitsrecht als ein die Grenzen zwischen Zivilrecht und öffentlichem Recht sprengenden Rechtsgebiet sui generis und zur Rechtssoziologie ins Gedächtnis, um daraus einige Folgerungen für die Arbeitsrechtswissenschaft am Fachbereich Rechtswissenschaft der Goethe Universität abzuleiten.
Die vorstehenden Überlegungen führen zu folgenden Ergebnissen:
1. Das SchVG erlaubt den Gläubigern sämtlicher vor Inkrafttreten des Gesetzes begebenen Anleihen, einschließlich solcher die nicht dem SchVG 1899 unterliegen, einen Beschluss über die Anwendbarkeit des SchVG zu fassen (Opt-in).
2. Der Anwendbarkeit des SchVG und damit insbesondere auch der Opt-in-Regelung steht eine Teilrechtswahl ausländischen Rechts in den Anleihebedingungen nicht entgegen, solange die Substanz der verbrieften Forderung deutschem Recht unterliegt.
Dies ergibt sich bereits aus dem gültigen Gesetz. Aufgrund entgegenstehender instanzgerichtlicher Rechtsprechung besteht allerdings Klarstellungsbedarf. Dies insbesondere auch deshalb, weil hiermit Fragen angesprochen sind, welche die Funktionsfähigkeit und Marktakzeptanz des neuen Gesetzes in wesentlichen Anwendungsbereichen berühren. Im Rahmen der Reform des Schuldverschreibungsrechts hat die Bundesregierung angekündigt, laufend zu prüfen, ob beabsichtigten Wirkungen dieses Gesetzes erreicht worden sind, und, soweit erforderlich, rechtzeitig die hieraus resultierenden erforderlichen Maßnahmen zu ergreifen.48 Nachdem unlängst bereits die Straffung des Freigabeverfahrens erfolgte49 ist zu hoffen, dass auch der hier identifizierte gesetzliche Klarstellungsbedarf zügig in Angriff genommen wird.
»Wenn es einen Wirklichkeitssinn gibt, dann muß es« – so folgerte Robert Musil zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts – »auch einen Möglichkeitssinn geben.« Darunter versteht er die Fähigkeit, »alles, was ebenso gut [auch] sein könnte, zu denken und das, was ist, nicht wichtiger zu nehmen, als das, was nicht ist.« Mit dem Begriff des Möglichkeitssinns, der auf die Relativität und Alternativität des individuellen Denkens sowie auf die Utopie eines anderen, hypothetischen Lebens verweist, hat Robert Musil in seinem Jahrhundertroman Der Mann ohne Eigenschaften dem Kontingenzbewusstsein des modernen Menschen Ausdruck gegeben, welches am Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts zum Grundmodus der Existenz und der Verfasstheit des Individuums überhaupt werden sollte. Dem Begriff der Kontingenz liegt bei aller Unschärfe ein grundlegendes, auf Aristoteles zurückgehendes Verständnis zugrunde, welches Niklas Luhmann folgendermaßen definiert: Kontingent ist etwas, was weder notwendig ist, noch unmöglich ist; was also so, wie es ist (war, sein wird), sein kann, aber auch anders möglich ist. Der Begriff bezeichnet mithin Gegebenes (zu Erfahrendes, Erwartetes, Gedachtes, Phantasiertes) im Hinblick auf mögliches Anderssein; er bezeichnet Gegenstände im Horizont möglicher Abwandlungen.
During the past decade, processes associated with what is popularly though perhaps misleadingly known as globalization have come within the purview of anthropology. Migration and mobility ‐ and the footloose or even rootless social groups that they produce ‐ as well as the worldwide diffusion of commodities, media images, political ideas and practices, technologies and scientific knowledge today are on anthropology's research agenda. As a consequence, received notions about the ways in which culture relates to territory have been abandoned. The term transnationalisation captures cultural processes that stream across the borders of nation states. Anthropologists have been forced to revise the notion that transnationalisation would inevitably bring about a culturally homogenized world. Instead, we are witnessing a surge of greatly increasing cultural diversity. New cultural forms grow out of historically situated articulations of the local and the global. Rather than left-over relics from traditional orders, these are decidedly modern, yet far from uniform. The essay engages the idea of the pluralization of modernities, explores its potential for interdisciplinary research agendas, and also inquires into problematic assumptions underlying this new theoretical concept.
The unintended consequences of the debt ... will increased government expenditure hurt the economy?
(2011)
In 2008, governments in many countries embarked on large fiscal expenditure programmes, with the intention to support the economy and prevent a more serious recession. In this study, the overall impact of a substantial increase in fiscal expenditure is considered by providing a novel analysis of the most relevant recent experience in similar circumstances, namely that of Japan in the 1990s. Then a weak economy with risk-averse banks seemed to require some of the largest peacetime fiscal stimulation programmes on record, albeit with disappointing results. The explanations provided by the literature and their unsatisfactory empirical record are reviewed. An alternative explanation, derived from early Keynesian models on the ineffectiveness of fiscal policy is presented in the form of a modified Fisher-equation, which incorporates the recent findings in the credit view literature. The model postulates complete quantity crowding out. It is subjected to empirical tests, which were supportive. Thus evidence is found that fiscal policy, if not supported by suitable monetary policy, is likely to crowd out private sector demand, even in an environment of falling or near-zero interest rates. As a policy conclusion it is pointed out that by changing the funding strategy, complete crowding out can be avoided and a positive net effect produced. The proposed framework creates common ground between proponents of Keynesian views (as held, among others, by Blinder and Solow), monetarist views (as held in particular by Milton Friedman) and those of leading contemporary macroeconomists (such as Mankiw).
Namibia is known to be the most arid country south of the Sahara. Average annual rainfall is not only relatively low in most parts of the country, it is also highly variable. Only 8 per cent of the country receives enough rain during a normal rainy season to practice rainfed cultivation. At the same time between 60 per cent and 70 per cent of the population depend on subsistence agro-pastoralism in non-freehold or communal areas. Against the background of rising unemployment, the livelihoods of the majority of these people are likely to depend on natural resources in the foreseeable future.
Natural resources generally are under considerable strain. As the rural population increases, so is the demand for natural resources, land and water specifically. Dependency on subsistence farming which is the result of large scale rural poverty exacerbates the problem. Large parts of the country are stocked injudiciously, resulting in overgrazing and water is frequently overabstracted, leading to declining water tables (MET 2005: 2).
Unequal access to both land and water has prompted government to introduce reforms in these sectors. These reforms were guided by the desire to manage resources more sustainably while providing more equal access to them. In terms of NDP 2, sustainability means to use natural resources in such a way so as not to ‘compromise the ability of future generations to make use of these resources’ (NDP 2: 595).
Immediately after Independence government started reform processes in the land and water sectors. However, these reforms have happened at different paces and largely independent of each other. Increasingly policy makers and development practitioners realised that land and water management needed to be integrated, as decisions about land management and land use options had a direct impact on water resources. Conversely the availability of water sets the parameters for what is possible in terms of agricultural production and other land uses. The north-central regions face a particular challenge in this regard as the region carries more livestock than it can sustain in the long run. At the same time, close to half the households do not own any livestock. Access to livestock by these households would improve their abilities to cultivate their land more efficiently in order to feed themselves and thus reduce poverty levels.
But livestock are a major consumer of water. In 2000 livestock was consuming more water than the domestic sector. The figures were 77Mm3/a and 67Mm3/a respectively (Urban et al. 2003 Annex 7: 2). This situation has prompted a Project Progress Report on the Namibia Water Resources Management Review in 2003 to conclude that Given the extreme water scarcity in most parts of the country, land and water issues are closely linked. It therefore seems indispensable to mutually adjust land – and water sector reform processes (Ibid: 20).
This paper will briefly look at four institutions that are central to land and water management with a view to assess the extent to which they interact. These are Communal Land Boards, Water Point Committees, Traditional Authorities and Regional Councils. A discussion of relevant policy documents and legislative instruments will investigate whether the existing policy framework
provides for an integrated approach or not. Before doing this, it appears sensible to briefly situate these four institutions in the wider maze of institutions operating at regional and
sub-regional level. All these institutions – important as they are in the quest to improve participation at the regional and sub-regional level – are competing for time and input fros mallscale farmers.
A version of this paper was originally written for a plenary session about "The Futures of Ethnography" at the 1998 EASA conference in Frankfurt/Main. In the preparation of the paper, I sent out some questions to my former fellow researchers by e-mail. I thank Douglas Anthony, Jan-Patrick Heiß, Alaine Hutson, Matthias Krings, and Brian Larkin for their answers.
With the Council regulation (EC) No. 1346/2000 of 29 May 2000 on insolvency proceedings, that came into effect May 31, 2002 the European Union has introduced a legal framework for dealing with cross-border insolvency proceedings. In order to achieve the aim of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of insolvency proceedings having cross-border effects within the European Community, the provisions on jurisdiction, recognition and applicable law in this area are contained in a Regulation, a Community law measure which is binding and directly applicable in Member States. The goals of the Regulation, with 47 articles, are to enable cross-border insolvency proceedings to operate efficiently and effectively, to provide for co-ordination of the measures to be taken with regard to the debtor’s assets and to avoid forum shopping. The Insolvency Regulation, therefore, provides rules for the international jurisdiction of a court in a Member State for the opening of insolvency proceedings, the (automatic) recognition of these proceedings in other Member States and the powers of the ‘liquidator’ in the other Member States. The Regulation also deals with important choice of law (or: private international law) provisions. The Regulation is directly applicable in the Member States3 for all insolvency proceedings opened after 31 May 2002.
While record-making prices at art auctions receive headline news coverage, artists typically do not receive any direct proceeds from those sales. Early-stage creative work in any field is perennially difficult to value, but the valuation, reward, and incentivization for artistic labor are particularly fraught. A core challenge in studying the real return on artists’ work is the extreme difficulty accessing data from when an artwork was first sold. Galleries keep private records that are difficult to access and to match to public auction results. This paper, for the first time, uses archivally sourced primary market records, for the artists Jasper Johns and Robert Rauschenberg. Although this approach restricts the size of the data set, this innovative method shows much more accurate returns on art than typical regression and hedonic models. We find that if Johns and Rauschenberg had retained 10% equity in their work when it was first sold, the returns to them when the work was resold at auction would have outperformed the US S&P 500 by between 2 and 986 times. The implication of this work opens up vast policy recommendations with regard to secondary art market sales, entrepreneurial strategies using blockchain technology, and implications about how we compensate creative work.
Employing the art-collection records of Burton and Emily Hall Tremaine, we consider whether early-stage art investors can be understood as venture capitalists. Because the Tremaines bought artists’ work very close to an artwork’s creation, with 69% of works in our study purchased within one year of the year when they were made, their collecting practice can best be framed as venture-capital investment in art. The Tremaines also illustrate art collecting as social-impact investment, owing to their combined strategy of art sales and museum donations for which the collectors received a tax credit under US rules. Because the Tremaines’ museum donations took place at a time that U.S. marginal tax rates from 70% to 91%, the near “donation parity” with markets, creating a parallel to ESG investment in the management of multiple forms of value.
This paper reviews the rationale for quantitative easing when central bank policy rates reach near zero levels in light of recent announcements regarding direct asset purchases by the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Empirical evidence from the previous period of quantitative easing in Japan between 2001 and 2006 is presented. During this earlier period the Bank of Japan was able to expand the monetary base very quickly and significantly. Quantitative easing translated into a greater and more lasting expansion of M1 relative to nominal GDP. Deflation subsided by 2005. As soon as inflation appeared to stabilize near a rate of zero, the Bank of Japan rapidly reduced the monetary base as a share of nominal income as it had announced in 2001. The Bank was able to exit from extensive quantitative easing within less than a year. Some implications for the current situation in Europe and the United States are discussed.
Recent evaluations of the fiscal stimulus packages recently enacted in the United States and Europe such as Cogan, Cwik, Taylor and Wieland (2009) and Cwik and Wieland (2009) suggest that the GDP effects will be modest due to crowding-out of private consumption and investment. Corsetti, Meier and Mueller (2009a,b) argue that spending shocks are typically followed by consolidations with substantive spending cuts, which enhance the short-run stimulus effect. This note investigates the implications of this argument for the estimated impact of recent stimulus packages and the case for discretionary fiscal policy.
This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean disinflation with temporary annual targets. At the start of the disinflation episode price-setting firms’ expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central bank acts to bring inflation under control, price-setting firms revise their estimates of the degree of persistence. Such adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms that choose the rate for indexation also re-assess the likelihood that announced inflation targets determine steady-state inflation and adjust indexation of contracts accordingly. A strategy of announcing and pursuing short-term targets for inflation is found to influence the likelihood that firms switch from backward-looking indexation to the central bank’s targets. As firms abandon backward-looking indexation the costs of disinflation decline further. We show that an inflation targeting strategy that employs temporary targets can benefit from lower disinflation costs due to the reduction in backward-looking indexation.
Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and the degree of inflation persistence in a simple macroeconomic model, which incorporates rational learning by the central bank as well as private sector agents. Two conflicting motives drive the optimal policy. In the static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the policymaker to move more cautiously than she would if she knew the true parameters. In the dynamic version, uncertainty also motivates an element of experimentation in policy. I find that the optimal policy that balances the cautionary and activist motives typically exhibits gradualism, that is, it still remains less aggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur when uncertainty is very high and in inflation close to target.
This note argues that the European Central Bank should adjust its strategy in order to consider broader measures of inflation in its policy deliberations and communications. In particular, it points out that a broad measure of domestic goods and services price inflation such as the GDP deflator has increased along with the euro area recovery and the expansion of monetary policy since 2013, while HICP inflation has become more variable and, on average, has declined. Similarly, the cost of owner-occupied housing, which is excluded from the HICP, has risen during this period. Furthermore, it shows that optimal monetary policy at the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates aims to return inflation more slowly to the inflation target from below than in normal times because of uncertainty about the effects and potential side effects of quantitative easing.
Das Working Paper bietet die zusammenfassende Stellungnahme von Prof. Volker Wieland zum Ankaufprogramm der Europäischen Zentralbank für Anleihen des öffentlichen Sektors (Public Sector Purchase Programme, PSPP) am Bundesverfassungsgericht am 30.07.2019. Dabei liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Frage der Einordnung des PSPP als monetäre, geldpolitische Maßnahme und der Verhältnismäßigkeit des Programms und seiner Umsetzung. Ebenfalls wird kurz auf die weiteren Fragen zur Umsetzung, insbesondere Ankündigung, Begrenzung und Abstand zum Primärmarkt für Staatsanleihen eingegangen.
The global financial crisis and the ensuing criticism of macroeconomics have inspired researchers to explore new modeling approaches. There are many new models that deliver improved estimates of the transmission of macroeconomic policies and aim to better integrate the financial sector in business cycle analysis. Policy making institutions need to compare available models of policy transmission and evaluate the impact and interaction of policy instruments in order to design effective policy strategies. This paper reviews the literature on model comparison and presents a new approach for comparative analysis. Its computational implementation enables individual researchers to conduct systematic model comparisons and policy evaluations easily and at low cost. This approach also contributes to improving reproducibility of computational research in macroeconomic modeling. Several applications serve to illustrate the usefulness of model comparison and the new tools in the area of monetary and fiscal policy. They include an analysis of the impact of parameter shifts on the effects of fiscal policy, a comparison of monetary policy transmission across model generations and a cross-country comparison of the impact of changes in central bank rates in the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, the paper includes a large-scale comparison of the dynamics and policy implications of different macro-financial models. The models considered account for financial accelerator effects in investment financing, credit and house price booms and a role for bank capital. A final exercise illustrates how these models can be used to assess the benefits of leaning against credit growth in monetary policy.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development
The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self‐reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long‐term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: C53, D84, E31, E32, E37 Keywords: Forecasting, Business Cycles, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Forecast Distribution, Model Uncertainty, Bayesian Estimation
The speakers of the Paraná dialect of Kaingáng, from whom the data of this study were gathered, have lived in close contact with the Brazilians since before the turn of the century. Although many members of this group are still monolingual and Kaingáng is spoken in all the homes, the influence of Portuguese is making an impact on the language. This can be seen not only in isolated loan words, but it is slowly changing the time dimension of the language and the thinking of the Indians. The change seems to have come about first through loan words, but it is now also affecting the semantic structure of the language and is beginning to affect the grammatical structure as well. The study here presented deals with this change as it can be seen in relation to time expressions such as yesterday – today – tomorrow; units of time such as day – month – year; kinship terms; and finally aspect particles. In considering the time expressions the meaning of various paradigms will be discussed. The paradigms are related to the time when events took place, to sequence of events, and to the point of the action. No Brazilian influence can be observed here. In the discussion of the units of time the semantic area of these units before and after Brazilian influence will be explored. Through Brazilian influence vocabulary has been developed with which it is possible to accurately pinpoint events in time which was not possible before this. The time distinctions within the kinship system will be discussed, and how they change with the influence of Brazilian terms. A whole new generation distinction is added in the modified kinship system. Similary several new aspect particles are being created through contractions, which now contain a time element. The whole development shows an emphasis on fine distinctions in time depth which came about through the contact with Portuguese and which can be observed in several points of the structure of Kaingáng.
In this paper we test previous claims concerning the universality of patterns of polysemy and semantic change in perception verbs. Implicit in such claims are two elements: firstly, that the sharing of two related senses A and B by a given form is cross-linguistically widespread, and matched by a complementary lack of some rival polysemy, and secondly that the explanation for the ubiquity of a given pattern of polysemy is ultimately rooted in our shared human cognitive make-up. However, in comparison to the vigorous testing of claimed universals that has occurred in phonology, syntax and even basic lexical meaning, there has been little attempt to test proposed universals of semantic extension against a detailed areal study of non-European languages. To address this problem we examine a broad range of Australian languages to evaluate two hypothesized universals: one by Viberg (1984), concerning patterns of semantic extension across sensory modalities within the domain of perception verbs (i .e. intra-field extensions), and the other by Sweetser (1990), concerning the mapping of perception to cognition (i.e. trans-field extensions). Testing against the Australian data allows one claimed universal to survive, but demolishes the other, even though both assign primacy to vision among the senses.
Im Zuge der fortlaufenden Digitalisierung im Mobilitätssektor werden aktuell besonders in Großstädten verstärkt geteilte on-demand Fahrdienstleistungen implementiert. Das sog. Ridepooling beschreibt eine dynamische und digitale Form des konventionellen Sammeltaxis, bei welcher durch eine intelligente Algorithmik mehrere voneinander unabhängige, zeitlich korrespondierende Fahrtwünsche in Echtzeit zu einer Route kombiniert werden. So können einander unbekannte Kund*innen gemeinsam und gleichzeitig nach ihren individuellen Bedürfnissen auf Direktverbindungen befördert werden. Viele der Ridepooling-Angebote werden in urban geprägten Raumstrukturen von privaten Verkehrsunternehmen - teilweise sogar eigenwirtschaftlich - betrieben und als nachhaltige Mobilitätsform beworben: Sie soll die sich individualisierenden Mobilitätsbedürfnisse der Bürger*innen befriedigen, dadurch städtische Problematiken wie hohe Luft- und Lärmbelastung, Staubildung sowie Flächenknappheit adressieren und zu einer umweltfreundlichen Verlagerung des lokalen Verkehrsaufkommens (Modal Shift) führen.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht am Beispiel der Großstädte Berlin und Hamburg, wie und unter welchen Zielsetzungen der unterschiedlichen Akteure die neuen Angebotsformen implementiert wurden und welche Auswirkungen sie auf die städtischen Mobilitätssysteme haben.
Durch Expert*innen-Interviews mit städtischen Behörden, öffentlichen und privaten Verkehrsunternehmen, Verkehrsverbünden und Expert*innen für digitale und städtische Mobilität soll der aktuell noch geringe Forschungsstand über die Zielsetzungen, Formen und Auswirkungen von Ridepooling-Angeboten in städtischen Räumen um praxisnahe Betrachtungen und Erkenntnisse erweitert werden. Es kann angenommen werden, dass die unterschiedlichen Ausgestaltungen der untersuchten Angebote von ioki, CleverShuttle, MOIA und BerlKönig dabei durchaus voneinander differierende Effekte auf das Nutzungsverhalten der Kund*innen und die städtische Verkehrsgestaltung sowie deren ökologischen und sozialen Nachhaltigkeitsdimensionen haben.
Diese Arbeit nimmt Weiße Freiwillige aus Deutschland in den Blick, die einen Freiwilligendienst im Ausland geleistet haben und in rassistischen Machtverhältnissen eine privilegierte, das heißt Weiße Position einnehmen. Dabei dienen die Critical Whiteness Studies als fruchtbare Grundlage, um die Auseinandersetzung mit Rassismus aus Weißer privilegierter Perspektive zu untersuchen. Die Arbeit geht daher der Frage nach: Inwiefern die Erfahrungen im Freiwilligendienst und die begleitenden rassismuskritischen Seminare Weiße Nord-Nord und Nord-Süd Freiwillige dazu anregen, ihre Privilegien zu reflektieren und sich kritisch im rassistischen Machtsystem zu positionieren. Die Analyse der Interviews mit Weißen Freiwilligen zeigt, dass die Interviewten zum einen unterschiedliche Konfrontationserfahrungen mit Whiteness gemacht haben und zum anderen ihre daraus resultierenden Reflexionsprozesse und Umgangsweisen sehr divers ausfallen. Unterschiede zeigen sich jedoch nicht nur zwischen den Nord-Nord und Nord-Süd Freiwilligen, sondern auch situationsabhängig anhand der jeweiligen Erfahrungen der einzelnen Weißen Freiwilligen. Aus diesen Untersuchungen lässt sich ableiten, dass es auch für rassismus- und machtkritische Begleitseminare weiterhin eine zu bewältigende Herausforderung bleibt, die Relevanz der persönlichen Auseinandersetzung mit Whiteness und somit mit eigenen Privilegien und Verstrickungen in Rassismus – unabhängig vom Zielland des Freiwilligendienstes – zu vermitteln.
During the last years the relationship between financial development and economic growth has received widespread attention in the literature on growth and development. This paper summarises in its first part the results of this research, stressing the growth-enhancing effects of an increased interpersonal re-allocation of resources promoted by financial development. The second part of the paper seeks to identify the determinants of financial development based on Diamond's theory of financial intermediation as delegated monitoring. The analysis shows that the quality of corporate governance of banks is the key factor in financial system development. Accordingly, financial sector reforms in developing countries will only succeed if they strengthen the corporate governance of financial institutions. In this area, financial institution building has an important contribution to make. Paper presented at the First Annual Seminar on New Development Finance held at the Goethe University of Frankfurt, September 22 - October 3, 1997
Das Arbeitspapier zeigt Perspektiven eines Promotionsprojektes auf, das sich mit der Reform der englischen Common Law- und Equity-Gerichtsbarkeit im Viktorianischen Zeitalter befasst. Nach einem Einblick in relevante Quellen und Literatur wird inhaltlich auf Mitglieder und Aufgaben der im Jahr 1867 eingesetzten Judicature Commission eingegangen. Anschließend werden Neuerungen aufgezeigt, die für das englische Gerichtswesen aus den in den 1870er Jahren verabschiedeten Judicature Acts folgten.