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Recent models with liquidity constraints and impatience emphasize that consumers use savings to buffer income fluctuations. When wealth is below an optimal target, consumers try to increase their buffer stock of wealth by saving more. When it is above target, they increase consumption. This important implication of the buffer stock model of saving has not been subject to direct empirical testing. We derive from the model an appropriate theoretical restriction and test it using data on working-age individuals drawn from the 2002 and 2004 Italian Surveys of Household Income and Wealth. One of the most appealing features of the survey is that it has data on the amount of wealth held for precautionary purposes, which we interpret as target wealth in a buffer stock model. The test results do not support buffer stock behavior, even among population groups that are more likely, a priori, to display such behavior. The saving behavior of young households is instead consistent with models in which impatience, relative to prudence, is not as high as in buffer stock models. JEL Classification: D91
Individuals are increasingly put in charge of their financial security after retirement. Moreover, the supply of complex financial products has increased considerably over the years. However, we still have little or no information about whether individuals have the financial knowledge and skills to navigate this new financial environment. To better understand financial literacy and its relation to financial decision-making, we have devised two special modules for the DNB Household Survey. We have designed questions to measure numeracy and basic knowledge related to the working of inflation and interest rates, as well as questions to measure more advanced financial knowledge related to financial market instruments (stocks, bonds, and mutual funds). We evaluate the importance of financial literacy by studying its relation to the stock market: Are more financially knowledgeable individuals more likely to hold stocks? To assess the direction of causality, we make use of questions measuring financial knowledge before investing in the stock market. We find that, while the understanding of basic economic concepts related to inflation and interest rate compounding is far from perfect, it outperforms the limited knowledge of stocks and bonds, the concept of risk diversification, and the working of financial markets. We also find that the measurement of financial literacy is very sensitive to the wording of survey questions. This provides additional evidence for limited financial knowledge. Finally, we report evidence of an independent effect of financial literacy on stock market participation: Those who have low financial literacy are significantly less likely to invest in stocks. JEL Classification: D91, G11, D80
We consider the advantages and disadvantages of stakeholder-oriented firms that are concerned with employees and suppliers as well as shareholders compared to shareholder-oriented firms. Societies with stakeholder-oriented firms have higher prices, lower output, and can have greater firm value than shareholder-oriented societies. In some circumstances, firms may voluntarily choose to be stakeholder-oriented because this increases their value. Consumers that prefer to buy from stakeholder firms can also enforce a stakeholder society. With globalization entry by stakeholder firms is relatively more attractive than entry by shareholder firms for all societies. JEL Classification: D02, D21, G34, L13, L21
We introduce a multivariate multiplicative error model which is driven by componentspecific observation driven dynamics as well as a common latent autoregressive factor. The model is designed to explicitly account for (information driven) common factor dynamics as well as idiosyncratic effects in the processes of high-frequency return volatilities, trade sizes and trading intensities. The model is estimated by simulated maximum likelihood using efficient importance sampling. Analyzing five minutes data from four liquid stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, we find that volatilities, volumes and intensities are driven by idiosyncratic dynamics as well as a highly persistent common factor capturing most causal relations and cross-dependencies between the individual variables. This confirms economic theory and suggests more parsimonious specifications of high-dimensional trading processes. It turns out that common shocks affect the return volatility and the trading volume rather than the trading intensity. JEL Classification: C15, C32, C52
Acquiring foreign firms far away might be hazardous to your share price: evidence from Germany
(2007)
This paper examines shareholder wealth effects of cross-border acquisitions. In a sample of 155 large acquisitions by German corporations from 1985–2006 international transactions in total do not lead to significant announcement returns. Geography, however, makes a difference: Shareholders of acquiring firms gain 6.5% in cross-border transactions into countries that have a common border with Germany but lose 4.4% in other international transactions. We find proximity to be one of the most important success factors in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, even when we control for firm, deal and country characteristics.
We analyze the effect of committee formation on how corporate boards perform two main functions: setting CEO pay and overseeing the financial reporting process. The use of performance-based pay schemes induces the CEO to manipulate earnings, which leads to an increased need for board oversight. If the whole board is responsible for both functions, it is inclined to provide the CEO with a compensation scheme that is relatively insensitive to performance in order to reduce the burden of subsequent monitoring. When the functions are separated through the formation of committees, the compensation committee is willing to choose a higher pay-performance sensitivity as the increased cost of oversight is borne by the audit committee. Our model generates predictions relating the board committee structure to the pay-performance sensitivity of CEO compensation, the quality of board oversight, and the level of earnings management.
Mutual insurance companies and stock insurance companies are different forms of organized risk sharing: policyholders and owners are two distinct groups in a stock insurer, while they are one and the same in a mutual. This distinction is relevant to raising capital, selling policies, and sharing risk in the presence of financial distress. Up-front capital is necessary for a stock insurer to offer insurance at a fair premium, but not for a mutual. In the presence of an owner-manager conflict, holding capital is costly. Free-rider and commitment problems limit the degree of capitalization that a stock insurer can obtain. The mutual form, by tying sales of policies to the provision of capital, can overcome these problems at the potential cost of less diversified owners.
Die Übertragung von Kapitalmarktpapieren nach dem US-amerikanischen Uniform Commercial Code (UCC)
(2007)
I. Einführung Der Gesetzgeber hat mit dem am 1. 11. 2005 in Kraft getretenen „Gesetz zur Unternehmensintegrität und Modernisierung des Anfechtungsrechts (UMAG)“ eine Reform der Anfechtung von Hauptversammlungsbeschlüssen im Aktienrecht eingeleitet. Diese Reform verfolgt im Wesentlichen folgende Ziele: Erstens, die beklagten Gesellschaften sollen leichter und schneller als bisher die Eintragung angefochtener Beschlüsse ins Handelsregister erwirken können, wenn dem keine schwerwiegenden Bedenken entgegenstehen. Zweitens, die funktionswidrige Verwendung der Anfechtungsklage und mißbräuchliche Klagen sollen weiter zurückgedrängt, und die nachteilige Entwicklung eines „Klagegewerbes“ soll eingedämmt werden. Drittens, Qualität und Geschwindigkeit landgerichtlicher Entscheidungen in Beschlußmängelprozessen sollen verbessert werden. Eine empirische Studie zu den Auswirkungen des UMAG in der Unternehmens- und Gerichtspraxis in diesem Bereich hat ergeben, daß der Gesetzgeber wichtige Schritte unternommen hat, daß aber nicht alle Ziele erreicht werden konnten, sondern weiterer dringlicher Reformbedarf besteht, der sich im Wesentlichen erst in jüngerer Zeit, nach dem Abschluß der Beratungen zum UMAG, entwickelt und gezeigt hat. Das Bundesministerium der Justiz hat inzwischen angekündigt, daß weitere gesetzliche Maßnahmen vor allem gegen die zunehmende Flut von Beschlußmängelklagen durch Berufskläger erwogen werden sollen. Die nachstehenden Überlegungen wollen zu dieser Diskussion beitragen. Dabei bleiben die – zwar in engem Zusammenhang hiermit stehenden, gleichwohl Spezialfragen betreffenden – Vorschläge des Handelsrechtsausschusses des DAV zur Ausweitung des Spruchverfahrens bei Umwandlung und Sachkapitalerhöhung hier ausgeklammert. ... VII. Zusammenfassung 1. Es sind weitere gesetzliche Maßnahmen gegen die zunehmende Anzahl von Beschlußmängelklagen durch Berufskläger erforderlich. 2. Gegen das Erfordernis eines pauschalen Mindestanteilsbesitzes als Voraussetzung der Anfechtungsklage bestehen rechtliche und praktische Bedenken. 3. Das Freigabeverfahren sollte umgestaltet werden: Bei den materiellen Freigabevoraussetzungen sollte die sog. Interessenabwägungsklausel im Gesetz entsprechend der Regierungsbegründung zum UMAG gefaßt werden, so daß im praktischen Ergebnis die Eintragung eines angefochtenen strukturändernden Beschlusses in aller Regel vorzunehmen ist, wenn nicht im Einzelfall die Schwere der mit der Klage geltend gemachten Rechtsverletzung dies ausschließt. Das Freigabeverfahren sollte ferner auf eine Instanz beschränkt werden; hierfür sollte die ausschließliche Zuständigkeit der Oberlandesgerichte vorgesehen werden. 4. Die Anreize für Aktionäre, Anfechtungsklagen zu erheben, um sich nicht den Nachteilen - insbesondere der überlangen Dauer - eines Spruchverfahrens aussetzen zu müssen, sollten beseitigt werden.
Das OLG Hamburg hat kürzlich entschieden, dass in der AG & Co. KG die Mitglieder des Vorstands der Komplementär-AG keinem Wettbewerbsverbot gegenüber der KG unterliegen. Für die Übernahme eines Vorstandsmandats bei dem die Komplementär-AG beherrschenden und mit der KG konkurrierenden Kommanditisten soll daher die Einwilligung des Aufsichtsrats ausreichen. Der Beitrag kommt demgegenüber aufgrund einer kritischen Analyse der Interessenlage und der Argumentation des OLG Hamburg zu dem Ergebnis, dass der Vorstand der Komplementär-AG entsprechend § 112 HGB einem Wettbewerbsverbot gegenüber der KG unterliegt, von dem ihm nur die Gesellschafter der KG Befreiung erteilen können.
The goal of this report is to prove correctness of a considerable subset of transformations w.r.t. contextual equivalence in a an extended lambda-calculus with case, constructors, seq, let, and choice, with a simple set of reduction rules. Unfortunately, a direct proof appears to be impossible. The correctness proof is by defining another calculus comprising the complex variants of copy, case-reduction and seq-reductions that use variablebinding chains. This complex calculus has well-behaved diagrams and allows a proof that of correctness of transformations, and also that the simple calculus defines an equivalent contextual order.
Der DSGV hat, mit Unterstützung weiterer Verbände, einen Vorstoß zur Deregulierung des Depotstimmrechts vorgelegt. Erteilt der Aktionär dem Depotinstitut keine Weisung, wie dieses in der HV abstimmen soll, dann soll es künftig verpflichtet sein, den Vorschlägen der Verwaltung (Vorstand und Aufsichtsrat) zu folgen, sofern ihm hierfür eine entsprechende Dauervollmacht des Aktionärs vorliegt. Dem Vorschlag sollte in seiner gegenwärtigen Form nicht gefolgt werden. Er würde voraussichtlich nicht zu einer maßgeblichen Erhöhung der Präsenzen führen. Rechtspolitisch bedenklich erscheint, daß die Depotinstitute sich verpflichten, auf der Basis einer Dauervollmacht mit einer u.U. in den Geschäftsbedingungen versteckten generellen Weisung unbesehen den Verwaltungsvorschlägen zu folgen. Richtig am Vorstoß der Verbände erscheint aber, daß künftig darauf verzichtet werden sollte, daß jedes Depotinstitut, das Stimmrechte von Aktionären vertreten will, entweder selbst Abstimmungsvorschläge erarbeiten oder die Vorschläge eines Zentralinstituts oder Stimmrechtsberaters kostenintensiv prüfen muß. Vielmehr sollte der Gesetzgeber den Depotinstituten ermöglichen, ohne eigene Prüfungspflicht im Vollmachtsformular neben den Vorschlägen der Verwaltung auf die Abstimmungsvorschläge einer anerkannten Aktionärsvereinigung oder eines unabhängigen Stimmrechtsberaters zu verweisen. Dies könnte den Wettbewerb um Aktionärsstimmen beleben und auch dazu beitragen, den Stimmen inländischer Privatanleger auf den Hauptversammlungen deutscher Aktiengesellschaften wieder stärker Gehör zu verschaffen. Eine solche Vorgabe wäre mit der demnächst umzusetzenden Aktionärsrichtlinie der EU vereinbar. Eine entsprechende Empfehlung, auf die Abstimmungsvorschläge einer anerkannten Aktionärsvereinigung oder eines unabhängigen Stimmrechtsberaters zu verweisen, sollte im Corporate Governance Kodex für Gesellschaften festgelegt werden, die den Aktionären einen Stimmrechtsvertreter benennen.
This paper documents the methodology underlying the construction of a global database of gross foreign asset and liability positions for 153 countries over the period 1970 to 2004 and illustrates some key data characteristics. The data cover both inflows and outflows of capital and thus allow for an assessment of the degree of international financial integration. In addition to net foreign asset stocks, we also provide details on the composition of the main asset and liability categories, namely the foreign direct investment, equity investment and debt components. Finally, we report on valuation changes as one of the main sources of discrepancy between transaction-based capital flow data and stock values of investment positions. The dataset is available for download at www.ifk-cfs.de/fileadmin/downloads/data/cfs-icfd.zip. or http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/volltexte/2007/4855/original/cfs-icfd.zip JEL Classification: F21; F34; F32
In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks. JEL Classification: F31, F37, C23
Die Konsequenzen eines unzulässigen Erwerbs eigener Aktien auf ein Rechtsgeschäft zwischen zwei Handelspartnern sind hinreichend bekannt. Die Einführung einer zentralen Gegenpartei hat jedoch zu grundlegenden Veränderungen der Vertrags- und Abwicklungsstruktur im Börsenhandel geführt. Ein wirtschaftlich einheitlicher Kauf wird juristisch aufgeteilt in zwei Rechtsgeschäfte mit der CCP. Der folgende Beitrag zeigt, wie sich ein unzulässiger Erwerb eigener Aktien in diesem System auswirkt und welche Risiken für den zentralen Kontrahenten damit einhergehen.
Much has been written on the success of the Indian software industry, enumerating systemic factors like first-class higher education and research institutions, both public and private; low labour costs, stimulating (state) policies etc. However, although most studies analyzing the 'Indian' software industry cover essentially the South (and West) Indian clusters, this issue has not been tackled explicitly. This paper supplements the economic geography explanations mentioned above with the additional factor social capital, which is not only important within the region, but also in transnational (ethnic) networks linking Indian software clusters with the Silicon Valley. In other words, spatial proximity is complemented with cultural proximity, thereby, extending the system of innovation. The main hypothesis is that some Indian regions are more apt to economic development and innovation due to their higher affinity to education and learning, as well as, their more general openness, which has been a main finding of my interviews. In addition, the transnational networks of Silicon Valley Indians seem to be dominated by South Indians, thus, corroborating the regional clustering of the Indian software industry. JEL Classifications: O30, R12, Z13, L86
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare. JEL Classification: C72, D62, D80
Retirees confront the difficult problem of how to manage their money in retirement so as to not outlive their funds while continuing to invest in capital markets. We posit a dynamic utility maximizer who makes both asset location and allocation decisions when managing her retirement financial wealth and annuities, and we prove that she can benefit from both the equity premium and longevity insurance in her retirement portfolio. Even without bequests, she will not fully annuitize; rather, her optimal stock allocation amounts initially to more than half of her financial wealth and declines with age. Welfare gains from this strategy can amount to 40 percent of financial wealth (depending on risk parameters and other resources). In practice, it turns out that many retirees will do almost as well by purchasing a variable annuity invested 60/40 in stocks/bonds. JEL Classification: G11, G23, G22, D14, J26, H55
Using a unique data set on trade credit defaults among French firms, we investigate whether and how trade credit is used to relax financial constraints. We show that firms that face idiosyncratic liquidity shocks are more likely to default on trade credit, especially when the shocks are unexpected, firms have little liquidity, are likely to be credit constrained or are close to their debt capacity. We estimate that credit constrained firms pass more than one fourth of the liquidity shocks they face on to their suppliers down the trade credit chain. The evidence is consistent with the idea that firms provide liquidity insurance to each other and that this mechanism is able to alleviate the consequences of credit constraints. In addition, we show that the chain of defaults stops when it reaches firms that are large, liquid, and have access to financial markets. This suggests that liquidity is allocated from large firms with access to outside finance to small, credit constrained firms through trade credit chains.
Public employee pension systems throughout the developed world have traditionally been of the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) defined benefit (DB) variety, where pensioner payments are financed by taxes (contributions) levied on the working generation. But as the number of retirees rises relative to the working-age group, such systems have begun to face financial distress. This trend has been exacerbated in many countries, among them Germany, by high unemployment rates producing further deterioration of the contribution base. In the long run, public sector pension benefits will have to be cut or contributions increased, if the systems are to be maintained. An alternative path sometimes offered to ease the crunch of paying for public employee pensions is to move toward funding: here, plan assets are gradually built up, invested, and enhanced returns devoted to partly defray civil servants’ pension costs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of introducing partial prefunding, paired with a strategic investment policy for the German federal state of Hesse. The analysis assesses the impact of introducing a supplementary tax-sponsored pension fund whose contributions are invested in the capital market and used to relieve the state budget from (some) pension payments. Our model determines the expectation and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of economic pension costs using a stochastic simulation process for pension plan assets. This approach simultaneously determines the optimal contribution rate and asset allocation that controls the expected economic costs of providing the promised pensions, while at the same time controlling investment risk. Specifically, we offer answers to the following questions: 1. How can the plan be designed to control cash-flow shortfall risk, so as to mitigate the potential burden borne by future generations of taxpayers? 2. What is the optimal asset allocation for this fund as it is built up, to generate a maximum return while simultaneously restricting capital market and liability risk? 3. What are reasonable combinations of annual contribution rates and asset allocation to a state-managed pension fund, which will limit costs of providing promised public sector pensions? We anticipate that this research will interest several sorts of policymaker groups. First, focusing on the German case, the state and Federal governments should find it relevant, as these entities face considerable public sector pension liabilities. Second, our findings will also be of interest to other European countries, as most have substantial underfunded defined benefit plans for civil servants. In what follows, we first offer a brief description of the structure of civil servant pensions in Germany, focusing on their benefit formulas, their financing, and the resulting current as well as future plan obligations for taxpayers. Next, we turn to an analysis of the actuarial status of the Hesse civil servants’ pension plan and evaluate how much would have to be contributed to fund this plan in a nonstochastic context. Subsequently we evaluate the asset-liability and decision-making process from the viewpoint of the plan sponsor, to determine sensible plan asset allocation behavior. A final section summarizes findings and implications.
Scholars of institutional design attribute large importance to the choice of new institutions. The comparative analysis of how Rwanda and Zambia crafted their new electoral systems and the systems of government regards procedural, structural and rational choice variables which may influence the option for particular solutions. External influences and the type of transition are determinants that can decide which actors make their interests prevail. The degree of innovation or conservatism of new institutions is mainly a result of the speed of the process and the kind of actors involved. However, rational reflections on how to produce legitimacy and minimize personal risks which take into consideration the state of conflict in the country decide on the speed and on innovative outcomes. The structured analysis of only two cases uncovers already that it is rather difficult to realise the transfer of design recommendations into reality.
Starting from controversial findings about the relationship between party systems and the prospects of democratic consolidation, this article argues that problems can only be properly addressed on the basis of a differentiated typology of party systems. Contradictory research results do not pose an ‘African puzzle’ but can be explained by different and inadequate approaches. We argue that a modified version of Sartori's typology of party systems provides an appropriate method for classifying African party systems. Based on Sartori's framework, a preponderance of predominant and dominant party systems is identified. This can partly be explained by the prevailing authoritarian nature of many multiparty regimes in Africa as well as by the ethnic plurality of African societies. High ethnic fragmentation is not transformed into highly fragmented party systems. This phenomenon can be attributed to the most frequent ‘ethnic congress party’ which is based on an ethnic elite coalition.
The worldwide diffusion of the good governance agenda and new public management has triggered a renewed focus on state capability and, more specifically, on the capability to raise revenue in developing countries. However, the analytical tools for a comprehensive understanding of the capability to raise revenue remain underdeveloped. This article aims at filling this gap and presents a model consisting of the three process dimensions ‘information collection and processing’, ‘merit orientation’ and ‘administrative accountability’. ‘Revenue performance’ constitutes the fourth capability dimension which assesses tax administration’s output. This model is applied to the case of the Zambia Revenue Authority. The dimensions prove to be valuable not only for assessing the how much but also the how of collecting taxes. They can be a useful tool for future comparative analyses of tax administrations’ capabilities in developing countries.
Following the neopatrimonialism paradigm, it can be hypothesised that in African states informal politics of the rulers infringe on the collection of taxes and in turn reduce state revenues. This article tests this proposition for the case of Zambia. The main finding is that there is no linear correlation between a neopatrimonial system and the collection of taxes. Neopatrimonial continuity in the country is evidenced by three factors; the concentration of political power, the award of personal favours and the misuse of state resources. Despite this continuity, the revenue performance has increased considerably with the creation of the semi-autonomous Zambia Revenue Authority. This demonstrates that the effect of neopatrimonialism on public policy in the African state is highly context-specific and dependent on the interaction with additional variables. Donor pressure has been the most important in the Zambian case. In order to apply neopatrimonialism for further empirical work on public policy in the African state, these additional variables have to be incorporated into the analysis.
It is often claimed that decentralisation is effective for the reduction of poverty due to inherent opportunities for higher popular participation and increased efficiency in public service delivery. This paper is a qualitative assessment of the potential of the Ugandan decentralisation reform for poverty alleviation. The Ugandan government initiated an ambitious decentralisation reform in 1992, which represents an example of full-fledged devolution with the transfer of far-reaching responsibilities to local governments. However, several shortcomings, such as low levels of accountability, insufficient human and financial resources, corruption, patronage, and central resistance to decentralisation, constrain the proper implementation of the reform, putting improvements in participation and efficiency at risk and ultimately jeopardising the intended impact on poverty.
Football coverage in newspapers is both an arena for and a mirror of political discourse within a society. The paper argues that discourses within football coverage referring to political issues reflect dominant – and, possibly, contesting – “truths”, which themselves are linked to power relations and political struggles within a given society. The comparison of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, two neighbouring countries in very different conditions (particularly with regard to their historical trajectories and the degree of societal consensus), and more particularly, the comparison of dominant discourses on the topics of patriotism, peace and good governance related to the World Cup qualification of both national teams supports the hypothesis of a strong context-relatedness of a politically loaded “football language”. For instance, whereas in Ghana patriotism is, when football comes in, quickly merged with pan-africanism, the Ivorian team renewed the heated political debate about “Ivorianess” by putting forward a notion of inclusive patriotism.
This paper focuses on dynamic interactions of equity prices among theoretically related assets. We explore the existence of intraday non-linearities in the FTSE 100 cash and futures indices. We test whether the introduction of the electronic trading systems in the London Stock Exchange in 1997 and in the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) in 1999 has eliminated the non-linear dynamic relationship in the FTSE 100 markets. We show that the introduction of the electronic trading systems in the FTSE 100 markets has increased the efficiency of the markets by enhancing the price discovery process, namely by facilitating the increase of the speed of adjustment of the futures and cash prices to departures of the mispricing error from its non-arbitrage band. Nevertheless, we conclude that the automation of the markets has not completely eliminated the non-linear properties of the FTSE 100 cash and futures return series. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15
Exchanges in Europe are in a process of consolidation. After the failure of the proposed merger between Deutsche Börse and Euronext, these two groups are likely to become the nuclei for further mergers and co-operation with currently independent exchanges. A decision for one of the groups entails a decision for the respective trading platform. Against that background we evaluate the attractiveness of the two dominant continental European trading systems. Though both are anonymous electronic limit order books, there are important differences in the trading protocols. We use a matched-sample approach to compare execution costs in Euronext Paris and Xetra. We find that both quoted and effective spreads are lower in Xetra. When decomposing the spread we find no systematic differences in the adverse selection component. Realized spreads, on the other hand, are significantly higher in Euronext. Neither differences in the number of liquidity provision agreements nor differences in the minimum tick size or in the degree of domestic competition for order flow explain the different spread levels. We thus conclude that Xetra is the more efficient trading system. JEL Classification: G10, G15
The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central bank’s interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy misperceptions regarding potential output. JEL Classification: E32, E41, E43, E52, E58
Current thinking on African conflicts suffers from misinterpretations oversimplification, lack of focus, lack of conceptual clarity, state-centrism and lack of vision). The paper analyses a variety of the dominant explanations of major international actors and donors, showing how these frequently do not distinguish with sufficient clarity between the ‘root causes’ of a conflict, its aggravating factors and its triggers. Specifically, a correct assessment of conflict prolonging (or sustaining) factors is of vital importance in Africa’s lingering confrontations. Broader approaches (e.g. “structural stability”) offer a better analytical framework than familiar one-dimensional explanations. Moreover, for explaining and dealing with violent conflicts a shift of attention from the nation-state towards the local and sub-regional level is needed.
The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. In this paper, we explore possible justifications. The case against including money in the central bank’s interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. Of course, if one allows for a direct effect of money on output or inflation as in the empirical “two-pillar” Phillips curves estimated in some recent contributions, it would be optimal to include a measure of (long-run) money growth in the rule. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy misperceptions regarding potential output. Such misperceptions cause a bias in policy setting. We find that cross-checking and changing interest rates in response to sustained deviations of long-run money growth helps the central bank to overcome this bias. Our argument in favor of ECB-style cross-checking does not require direct effects of money on output or inflation. JEL Classification: E32, E41, E43, E52, E58
Die Richtlinie vom 6. September 2006 zur Änderung der Kapitalrichtlinie soll den Mitgliedstaaten erlauben, das bislang geltende Kapitalschutzregime in verschiedenen Bereichen zu liberalisieren. Größerer Freiraum kann danach den betroffenen Unternehmen unter anderem für einen Erwerb eigener Aktien eingeräumt werden. Der nachfolgende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, welcher Gestaltungsspielraum den Mitgliedstaaten bei der Umsetzung der insoweit maßgeblichen Bestimmungen zusteht und welcher Anpassungsbedarf sich für das deutsche Recht ergibt.
Der vorstehende Beitrag hat untersucht, ob die Praxis, „defensive bids“ in Staatsanleiheauktionen abzugeben oder die Veröffentlichung einer künstlich erhöhten „Bid to Cover-Ratio“ durch die Emittenten von Staatsanleihen sowie ihre „Primary Dealers“ eine verbotene Marktmanipulation im Sinne des § 20 a WpHG darstellen. Das rechtspolitisch wenig überzeugende Ergebnis ist, dass der Emittent und Auslöser dieser Vorgänge – mangels Anwendbarkeit der Norm – nicht gegen das Verbot des § 20 a WpHG verstößt, die privatrechtlich organisierten „Primary Dealers“ – durch die Veröffentlichung der Kennzahl – hingegen durchaus. Inwiefern das aufgezeigte und als Marktmanipulation erkannte Verhalten strafrechtlich sanktioniert werden kann, soll hier nicht erörtert werden, hängt es doch sehr stark vom jeweiligen Einzelfall ab. Der Reputationsschaden, der aus dem Vorwurf der Marktmanipulation entsteht, ist indes nicht zu unterschätzen. Vielleicht gelingt es den „Primary Dealers“ aber gerade deswegen, unter Hinweis auf § 20 a WpHG die Finanzagenturen der Emittenten davon abzuhalten, „defensive bids“ von ihnen einzufordern. Insbesondere der gemeinschaftsrechtliche Hintergrund des Verbots der Marktmanipulation und das Streben nach einem Gleichlauf der Aufsichtspraxis für Marktmanipulationen legen es nahe, dass sich die Aufsichtsbehörden der entsprechenden Emittenten genauer mit den Vorgängen um die Staatsanleiheauktionen befassen. Schließlich besteht auch in Frankreich ein Verbot der Marktmanipulation in Form der Art. L. 465-2 Code monétaire et financier i.V.m. Art. 631-1 Règlement général de l’autorité des marchés financiers (AMF). Darüber hinaus stehen die Anforderungen der Richtlinie über Märkte für Finanzinstrumente (MiFiD) zur „best practice“ und dem Transparenzgebot zum Schutz der Anleger im Widerspruch zu dem geschilderten Verhalten. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollten weder „defensive bids“ eingefordert noch abgegeben werden. Damit wäre nicht nur den „Primary Dealers“, sondern vor allem dem Markt für Staatsanleihen und den Anlegern gedient.
Unerwartete Geschäftszahlen und die daraus resultierende Notwendigkeit der Anpassung von Ergebnisprognosen zeigen sich bereits bei der Vorbereitung der Regelberichterstattung. Damit stellt sich für die Unternehmensleitung die Frage, ob sie solche Insiderinformationen adhoc publizieren muss oder ob sie die Veröffentlichung aufschieben und bis zu dem für die Regelberichterstattung vorgesehenen Termin zuwarten darf. ... Zusammenfassung Ergeben sich bei den Vorbereitungen für die Regelberichterstattung Abweichungen von den Erwartungen an die Geschäftszahlen, die im Falle ihres Bekanntwerdens erheblichen Einfluss auf den Kurs von Insiderpapieren haben können, kann sich der Vorstand des Emittenten vor die Frage gestellt sehen, ob er die Ad-hoc-Veröffentlichung dieser Insiderinformation bis zu dem Zeitpunkt aufschieben darf, der im Finanzkalender für die Regelberichterstattung vorgesehen ist. Jedenfalls dann, wenn der Termin für diese Berichterstattung unmittelbar bevorsteht, überwiegt das Interesse des Emittenten an einem solchen Aufschub regelmäßig das Interesse des Kapitalmarkts an sofortiger Veröffentlichung. Das gilt auch dann, wenn aufgrund der Geschäftszahlen Ergebnisprognosen angepasst werden müssen. Sofern nicht ausnahmsweise eine Irreführung der Öffentlichkeit zu befürchten ist oder Bedenken hinsichtlich der Gewährleistung der Vertraulichkeit der Insiderinformation bestehen, ist der Emittent daher nach § 15 Abs. 3 WpHG bis zu dem für die Regelberichterstattung angekündigten Zeitpunkt von der Pflicht zur Veröffentlichung befreit.
This paper will sketch out some of the developments in European company law as seen from the current moment, which might be referred to as post- 2003 Action Plan, and from my purely personal viewpoint. I will thus restrict myself to presenting the current and expected legislative projects of the EU, with particular focus on the plans and activities of the Commission, and for the moment bracket out both a number of important and interesting decisions of the European Court of Justice and the debates among European legal scholars.
Natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa suffer from a bad reputation. Oil and diamonds, particularly, have been blamed for a number of Africa’s illnesses such as poverty, corruption, dictatorship and war. This paper outlines the different areas and transmission channels of how this so-called “resource curse” is said to materialize. By assessing empirical evidence on sub-Saharan Africa it concludes that the resource curse theory fails to sufficiently explain why and how several countries have not or only partly been affected by the “curse”. Theoretically, the paper argues that whether or not natural resources are detrimental to a country’s socio-economic and political development depends on a number of contextual variables, divided into country-specific conditions and resource-specific conditions (type, degree/level of abundance and dependence, resource revenue management, involved companies etc.). Methodologically, a future research agenda needs to examine the complex interplay of these contextual variables by adding sophisticated comparative research designs, especially “small and medium N” comparisons, to the tool box which has been widely confined to the juxtaposition of “large N” and country case studies.
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information or beliefs on volatility. Using high-frequency intraday data, we estimate the volatility effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of the stock returns of large European banks as a function of the quality of available public information about the banks. We hypothesise that, as the publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence should increase, as the private information (beliefs) of investors becomes more important. We find strong support for this idea in the data. We argue that the results have implications for debate surrounding the opacity of banks and the transparency requirements that may be imposed on banks under Pillar III of the New Basel Accord.
This paper traces the location of foreign banks in Germany from 1949 to 2006. As suggested by new economic geography models we find a ‘u’-shaped concentration of foreign banks in Germany. Only after a competition between several cities, Frankfurt has emerged as the pre-eminent financial centre, triggered by the ‘historical event’ of setting up the German central bank in Frankfurt. After a strong increase, Frankfurt’s share in the location of foreign banks in Germany decreases slowly but significantly since the mid 1980’s. We conclude that there will be a lesser role in Europe for secondtier financial centres in the future.
Many tax-codes around the world allow for special taxable treatment of savings in retirement accounts. In particular, profits in retirement accounts are usually tax exempt which allow investors to increase an asset’s return by holding it in such a retirement account. While the existing literature on asset location shows that risk-free bonds are usually the preferred asset to hold in a retirement account, we explain how the tax exemption of profits in retirement accounts affects private investors’ asset allocation. We show that total final wealth can be decomposed into what the investor would have earned in a taxable account and what is due to the tax exemption of profits in the retirement account. The tax exemption of profits can thus be considered a tax-gift which is similar to an implicit bond holding. As this tax-gift’s impact on total final wealth decreases over time, so does the investor’s equity exposure.
This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the first difference in the daily distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification.
We compute the optimal dynamic asset allocation policy for a retiree with Epstein-Zin utility. The retiree can decide how much he consumes and how much he invests in stocks, bonds, and annuities. Pricing the annuities we account for asymmetric mortality beliefs and administration expenses. We show that the retiree does not purchase annuities only once but rather several times during retirement (gradual annuitization). We analyze the case in which the retiree is restricted to buy annuities only once and has to perform a (complete or partial) switching strategy. This restriction reduces both the utility and the demand for annuities.
This paper proposes a possible way of assessing the effect of interest rate dynamics on changes in the decision-making approach, communication strategy and operational framework of a Central bank. Through a GARCH specification we show that the USA and Euro area displayed a limited but significant spillover of volatility from money market to longer-term rates. We then checked the stability of this phenomenon in the most recent period of improved policymaking and found empirical evidence that the transmission of overnight volatility along the yield curve vanished soon after specific policy changes of the FED and ECB.
Die erstmalige Übertragung der Regierungsverantwortung im Jahr 1998 an eine Koalition aus SPD und Bündnis90/Die Grünen auf der Bundesebene hat Erwartungen geweckt, dass sich die gesundheitspolitische Ausrichtung stärker an den Interessen von Patientinnen und Patienten orientierten würde als bisher üblich. Die Dominanz der Opposition im Bundesrat jedoch erforderte eine große Reformkoalition, um strukturelle Veränderungen im deutschen Gesundheitswesen durchsetzen zu können. Die Analyse politischer Dokumente und der wichtigsten Gesetzesvorhaben seit dem Beginn der rot-grünen Regierungskoalition zeigt, dass einerseits die individuellen und kollektiven Beteiligungsrechte von Patienten und Patientinnen sowie Patientenverbände gestärkt wurden, andererseits aber auch die finanziellen Belastungen von Erkrankten durch erhöhte Zuzahlungen und vermehrte Leistungsausgrenzungen gestiegen sind. Gemessen an den hohen Standards der Weltgesundheitsorganisation sind daher die Ergebnisse der rot-grünen Regierungszeit als ambivalent zu bewerten.